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GDP

Back to the basics...again.My posts are going to continue to be really simple because I believe in fundamentals and I believe in the long term. My first chart shows how no change happens if we simply recover by the end of the year. The chart won't change much if we go into a full on downtrend and lose even more market cap as well. Some people will continue to hold and some people will continue to short-sell, but it's still of no consequence. The second chart shows just how much a newer high changes over all perspective. If we establish $25000 by years end you can see that what I call noise begins to minimize more and more. The third chart shows that in the long run that if the market continues to grow, all of this up and down from January to May will be nothing to even mention other than it was a historic year in the continuous evolution of cryptocurrencies. I stopped only half way into 2019 because the bottom line becomes more and more non-existent. Now the parabolic line that I've created should actually be considered part of a bell curve. If you believe that these new currencies are in the infant stage, then guess what, this bell curve is barely starting which means we have a long way to go up before we even consider it falling. A lot of people say that crypto won't be around or bitcoin won't be around in 100 years. So let's say that we are 8 years into a 50 year peak. That leaves us 42 year of growth before we actually start a decline. Even taking into account the slowing of growth at the end that leaves an easy 20 years of consistent exponential growth. 20 years at even 300% growth is maddening. On the other hand, if we are on a 20 year cycle and we are almost at the peak that mean we will see slow growth till 2020 and then we start our decline. Because we still haven't reached our final coin in mining of bitcoin I don't see it ending that quickly. As far as pre-mined coins go, they might be a great indicator as to what will happen after the last coin is mined. Hopefully failure isn't in the cards. Last of all, let's say that there ends up being a coin for every country in the world and by some miracle we have shifts in GDP and wealth gap so that all coins become equal. Very unlikely scenario I admit, but using comparative advantage and looking as to how with the right incentive, we might actually be able to pull this off, let's take a look at global GDP. Divide it by 100+ countries. This would give us a baseline of what we could see in crypto-growth for any given coin. I'm not going to attempt that calculation this post, because I'm sure it will be really controversial and a lot of people will criticize it, but I'm planting a seed for thought. Hope my wild ideas are reaching a few people in the end. Till next time.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by whiprush3
Are bears actually bulls in disguise?I'm posting a chart with absolutely no trend-lines, pennants, or any other sort of TA attached for one simple reason; I want to turn down the noise and just reflect on what's happening. Imagine a spring. When you compress or pull the spring and release, it moves back and forth until it finds equilibrium again. The market also acts as such except the spring itself is constantly changing. When we see a series of trend-lines that have the up and down motion inside it, that is the motion of the spring after release. The breaks in trend line is when the market has created a new spring right before release. This is when TA can tell us whether or not the spring will continue it's back and forth motion or if there is a change to the structure. In the last part of 2017 we saw the spring structure change, pulled, and then released. If there was a constant like in physics, we saw the spring bottom out at about 5,9k as we have not seen it drop below that in almost 4 months. So why would we bounce out of this structure. One: people will intentionally weaken the structure or people will intentionally build the structure, the structure being the spring. To the question I pose, it seems like an overwhelming number of bears sell coins knowing or with the intent of buying cheaper as to accumulate more of almost any crypto-currency. Essentially you shock or weaken the structure but understand that it can probably rebuild and put you in a better position. However, after reading their ideas it truly feels that most still expect exponential increase in the long run. So perhaps instead of saying that some one is a perma-bear maybe we should shift perspective and realize that most are just simply smart enough to trade the trend. I think most people are missing a huge point by panicking or not backing up and looking at factors outside of normal trading. Yes there are plenty of whales out there and market makers that are probably consistently manipulating the market, but even whales can't buy countries or compete with most countries GDPs. There are entire countries that are building on blockchain and crypto-currencies as we speak. The big institutions all over the world are prepping trading desks and getting their plans locked down. Major front desk persons have left some of these bigger players to work on their own projects so from the inside they know what is coming. So now ask yourself this. Can all the whales in the world compete with the rest of the world. On the macro level I would have to say it is an extreme and overwhelming "no." They can hinder and slow down or speed up a process, but in the end if we see these currencies come to fruition, not just used as a store of value, then what is a billionaire compared to trillions of dollars of flow of products. The fact that people are more worried about smaller whales and manipulators than global controllers is definitely missing the forest for the trees.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by whiprush3
3
TODAY 9:50 EST SUNDAY 25/3/2018EVERYBODY´S WAITING FOR THE FIRST SUPPORT PRICE ($1.41...) THEN THE PRICE WILL INCREASE UNTIL THE LAST RESISTANCE ($1.43 MORE OR LESS)... YOU SHOULD HAVE INTO ACCOOUNT THAT IN THIS WEEK THE UK AND USD GDP DATA WILL BE RELEASED, THE BoE will decide if change or not the interest rate , and THE BREXIT ISSUES ! TAKE CARE AND GOOD TRADE www.twitter.com There is more information about that... including a list where there is a lot information about the markets, traders among others.
by AndresPolo7
25/3/2018 9:43 EST SHORT AND LONG POSITIONEVERYBODY´S WAITING FOR THE FIRST SUPPORT PRICE ($1.41...) THEN THE PRICE WILL INCREASE UNTIL THE LAST RESISTANCE ($1.43 MORE OR LESS)... YOU SHOULD HAVE INTO ACCOOUNT THAT IN THIS WEEK THE UK AND USD GDP DATA WILL BE RELEASED, THE BoE will decide if change or not the interest rate , and THE BREXIT ISSUES ! TAKE CARE AND GOOD TRADE www.twitter.com There is more information about that... including a list where there is a lot information about the markets, traders among others.
Long
by AndresPolo7
Today, is GDP day.As we look at the GBP q/q GDP, with an expectation for performance to hold the same (at 0.4%). This may represent a trend following buying opportunity for the GBPUSD, especially if the GBPUSD holds above 1.42. In the evening, we have US q/q GDP, expecting a data slightly worse than previous. This will be a data release I’ll be avoiding, due to 3 reasons, A Friday evening, timing of the release, and with WEF in Davos happening over the weekend. While Davos is unlikely to have policy implications, political jawboning could increase volatility in the currency pairs.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
S&P 500 : Ahead of a massive bull market like 1995 ? ... noThis double chart have one and only purpose... to simply destroy any king of idea about the S&P that could be about to perform crazy like it did in the 1995-2000 rallye. That's just non-sense and purely stupid. Not only the context is totally different... cause back then the GDP was the true gas of that rallye... as today everyone knows that we will never be able to match such growth nowadays... Plus, the first chart highlights the fact that, related to GDP, we are actually pricing the S&P today just like we did in the top of the 2000 bullmarket, not the beginning of it ! So instead of giving a sign of bullish support this chart actually shows more bear probabilities ! And if this arguments doesn't convince you, then simply have a look at the durable goods order, the most reliable hard data to forecast earnings... Do you see any kind of reliable following of the recent parabolic uptrend ? I don't ! So the real question is what drives the market ? Well this is a complex answer... But the only thing I can tell is that every person that argue this bull market is similar to 1995 is just non-sense ! Just to set things straight... I'm not saying I want to short the market tomorrow.. I just say that this theory that says the market is at the beginning of a massive bullish move.. well .. not likely to me ! and most likely reaching the endpoint soon. Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators Kindly, Phil
SP:SPX
by PRO_Indicators
1
Two options with EURUSD; more sided with short.I am more leaning towards the sell because of economic principles; The European Central Bank as decreased its bond buy activity which means they are pumping less money supply into the economy and in other terms, since they are not spending money in buying bonds, GDP must decrease to some extent if all other variables are constant. The formula for GDP is = C + I + G + (X - M). G is the government spending. So if all other things are relatively the same, and the government spends less money, GDP has to decrease so therefore the value of the Euro has to decrease as well since the value depends on GDP as well as other factors. That is just my economic reasoning. "The European Central Bank said Thursday it would carry on buying government bonds deep into next year but in reduced monthly amounts , a milestone policy shift that signals it will follow the U.S. Federal Reserve on a path toward higher interest rates." -The Wall Street Journal
Short
by DennisPTran07
GBPCAD Triangle/Wedge/Pennant ExampleFundamentally we know that GBP is strong and that CAD is weak. GBP had a good beat on GDP data yesterday. CAD has been weaker due to the neutral/dovish statements made yesterday by the Bank of Canada. There was a large initial move yesterday and we are currently in a pullback. While in the pullback the a Triangle/Wedge/Pennant formation developed. I know they are all technically different, but to me they all represent a consolidation before a breakout. I use Fundamentals to determine direction. So to me, they are all more or less the same. I thought this was a good example. Hopefully it continues to break upwards.
by basquefxb1
GBPUSD Fundamental/Technical setupHaving broken through the previous 1.22 - 1.26 range off the back of the general election announcement, GBPUSD appears to have established a new range between support at previous resistance (1.26) and new resistance at 1.3 the 1.3 level has now been tested for a third time, with what appears to be a false break earlier this month. News tomorrow supporting the British economy could well lead us into a new range between 1.3, and 1.33, particularly considering the low likelihood of a fed decision to increase interest rates across the pond. In spite of these possible results, the more likely outcome is for the Cable to maintain its current range, particularly considering the IMF's recent decision to downgrade projected UK growth from 2.0 to 1.7% for the coming year. I will therefore wait for the result of the economic releases from the UK tomorrow, and set a Short entry at 1.3, with a TP at 1.265 towards the bottom of the predicted range, and the SL at 1.315, just above the most recent false BO. Good Luck! TW
by Trade_Wind
Gold scenarios for next few daysGold 0.06% been trending upwards nicely in a channel, off an inverted H&S bottom and break of the downward channel, pushing through some key levels. Lots of data tomorrow too in EU and US. Could push this around and give us continuation or a breakdown. The channel is clear and some other decent levels to watch for opportunities, keep an open mind on direction from here. There's no crystal ball but resolution of battle for 1250-1260 zone should be significant. Can see $20 move in either direction once resolved, at least. Probably more if managed well. Position lightly and from the edges, be patient, manage risk tightly, and let the winners run - that should get you on the right side of a decent move in the coming days, in my opinion.
FX:XAUUSD
by BobVanders