Get started

GDP

Elliot analisysEurnzd is complewting the fifth wave in daily chart, if we look closer at the 4h chart we can observe that the sub-waves have a confluence with the bigger ones, so now tha price has finished the third sub wave and is going to retrace and then there will be the last bearish impulse towards 1.653 probably. You can open a sell trade when market will end the 4th sub wave (around 1.681) with a stop placed above the 50 moving average in h4 chart which is at is @ 1.6825, if you place your sell there your risk reward ratio will be something like 1:8; consider that the primary trend is bearish as weel as the secondary one, so you will trade with the trend, it is the last part of the trend so pay attention to your stop loss, because you must not risk much. Fundammetally the New Zeland is in a very good position thanks to the great Unemployment rate published earlier this week (4.9%), the inflation is going up and the RBNZ will not cut the rates as thought last year on august, The Euro is going to be weaker because of The italian cirisis and the problem related to the pandemic (New Zeland managed it with no problems), and the ECB might cut rates later this year or in early 2022, so there are gonna be some speculations. Enjoy your trading and buy the New Zeland !
Short
by Dragon_Investments
1
The Top 5 Fundamental Currency DriversThe goal of this article is to understand what really moves the markets. 1. Central Bank Decisions These organizations manage the countries monetary system and policy. They control the countries money supply and operate through specific mandates. Stable inflation is a common mandate applicable to the majority of central banks. Interest rates are a crucial tool used by them to reach their mandates. Changes in interest rates have a tremendous impact on the Forex markets. Rate decisions from central banks can cause lots of volatility. They’re also great opportunities for making money. For this reason, interest rates should be something all Forex traders monitor. Good to start here as a beginner in fundamentals. 2. Economic News Releases News releases like: GDP Gross Domestic Product CPI Consumer Price Index Employment Data like average earnings, NFP, and unemployment Rate could have a huge impact on interest rate decisions and traders always have expectations on these releases if it differs from it market reacts. 3. Geopolitical Events Politicians are an important part of the market moves. Investors seek stable economies, also tax decisions and fiscal policy decisions are drivers of the market. 4. Natural Disasters Things like earthquakes or tsunamis can negatively affect a country’s economy. 5. Intermarket Movements Equities Bonds and Commodities are all connected to each other so one spike in an asset class could lead to moves in the other asset classes too. Things like risk aversion and risk appetite are a daily play on the markets because the risk is a great factor of daily currency moves. Safe haven bids are bonds Japanese yen and Swiss franc in a market crash these assets have money inflows. Hope you enjoyed this small article for more information visit my website vitezabraham.com. Have a Nice day! Vitez
Education
by Vitezabraham
Time for new resolutions or do we mess it up more?U.S. Public Debt at 127.78% of GDP... How sustainable is it? Overall, as the U.S. Federal Debt keeps on climbing, the S&P 500 keeps on climbing... It might be great for the U.S stock market but it is very bad for present and future generations. Federal Debt: FRED:GFDEGDQ188S S&P500: CURRENCYCOM:US500 CURRENCYCOM:US500 The U.S. Public Debt is now at 127.78% of the U.S. GDP... How sustainable is this trend? There used to be lots of international buyers who were keen on buying U.S Treasury Notes and U.S Treasury Bonds, such as China. Will China still buy happily those financial products, thereby financing this ever-increasing debt, set on an uncontrollable path? As we now enter a phase where each country thinks of its own survival, how will be willing to finance the debt of other countries? It is becoming less and less likely. International cooperation related to unsustainable borrowing, will trickle down considerably. And the new reality of "to each his own" will become a renewed source of conflict, domestically and globally. Time for new resolutions or do we mess it up more? François Normandeau Institutional Research Director at ADX-BRIEFING
FRED:GFDEGDQ188S
by Pine_Academy
S&P500 Vs Manufacturing PMI & GDP Growth Expectations Here we take a deeper look at why the ISM Manufacturing PMI data release is the most closely watched economic indicator on the monthly calendar. We look at how manufacturing PMI predicts GDP growth in the U.S with an 85% certainty going back to 1948. We then take a look at the historical correlation to ISM Manufacturing PMI and the S&P500. After watching this video you will understand what that market focuses on to predict GDP growth and when to buy and sell the S&P500 index
SP:SPX
by KayansMarkets
2
SPX via Equation of ExchangeHi everyone, I am doing some self study and have created the graph above. using the equation of exchange M*V=P*Y I have calculated 1/Y. M = Money Supply V = Money Velocity P = Price (S&P index value) Y = Real Output/Value Keeping the above in mind I calculate 1/Y (inverse because chart is easier to look at) 1/Y = 1/(M*V/P) Adjusted Value = 1/(M2*M2V/SPX) With the math listed here we can see that the recent volatility (past 2 years) may have been the result reaching the previous dotcom peak. We are now resting on top of that peak as support. The trend is consistent and the Fiscal/Monetary response is firmly in control of the market. If we were to break down from here this chart could be interesting to gauge where the bottom is without as much noise. Please leave your comments and correct me if you see anything I can improve upon. I am still learning and not a financial advisor/professional so please do not make any trades on my advice. If you do not look at this as 1/Y and instead just Y it could indicate that real output is falling over time however I would like to discuss this further if anyone has opinions. Personally I am interested in Asain markets and Gold going forward. - Salty
FRED:WM2NS
by SaltyTeemo
U-Shape? V-Shape? Recovery Shapes Explained And What They Mean ?🎈 Here are the most common economic recovery shapes and what they mean. While economic growth can be measured by any number of metrics—like the stock market or employment rates for example—we’ll focus on GDP. 📍 A V-shaped recovery means that the economy bounces back quickly to its baseline before the crisis, with no hiccups along the way. Growth continues at the same rate as before. This is one of the most optimistic recovery patterns because it implies that the downturn did not cause any lasting damage to the economy. Under this scenario, the economic damage lasts for a longer period of time before eventually reaching the baseline level of growth again. The economy bounces back, but the damage at the bottom lingers for a while. 📍 In a W-shaped recession, also called a double dip, the economy moves beyond a recession into a period of recovery before falling back down again into another recession. The initial recovery is sometimes known as a bear market rally. One example: After the oil and inflation crises in 1979, the U.S. fell into two back-to-back recessions in 1980 and 1981. 📍 An L-shaped recovery is the most pessimistic scenario. In this shape, the economy recovers to a certain degree from a steep drop, but growth never reaches pre-crisis levels for years, if at all. A period of economic stagnation follows. 📍 A recovery scenario resembling the Nike “swoosh” logo is characterized by a steep drop and a gradual recovery, meaning that it takes much longer to return to pre-crisis growth levels than it took to fall into recession. A variant of this is a square root-shaped recession where growth recovers but then plateaus before reaching pre-crisis levels. Lowenstein says this is his base case scenario. feel Free to comment below Your Ideas to make things more better. Thank you 🙏
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Ridethemacro
22
A look at the economy of the Soviet UnionIt was 98 years that communists randomly drew the borders between Armenia & Azerbaijan (and Georgia and Turkey). And it's still a mess to this day. WW3 soon. Great time to take a look at the economy of the soviet union. This is a vast subject so I will only cover a tiny fraction of what can be said about it, but I will try to basically cover the general idea. I will start by a little intro about the early communists/socialists. Not the revolution itself but how it got started after the revolution. Fun fact: All the early communists that participated in the treaty got executed a few years later by Stalin, just like every single early bolshevik or socialist. I can't help but laugh, every socialist revolution even thousands of years ago the early ones really think they have a bright future and all end up getting killed. Yakov Ganetsky the soviet russian ambassador at the time was a famous communist financeer (hey just like George Soros), of course saying he was secrectly financing a socialist revolution was a crazy conspiracy theory until it happened. What is it with these financial people and wishing to dominate entire populations? A crazy conspiracy theory about George Soros: HE SAID, I have it on video, he said that he saw himself as a sort of divine person that had a special mission, a prophet that had to control the world. So anyway this Yakov that was a financeer of a certain ethnicity which is probably why the subject is avoided by the west so much, got arrested by Stalin in 1937 after the commie police raided his appartement and found communist books that were "not real socialism" (the previous kind of socialism that failed) LOL! So after this he got tortured to confess he was a spy for Germany and Poland because why not, and then after a fair trial that lasted 15 minutes he was sentenced to death and shot the day of his trial. Can't see he didn't have it coming. If he had better predictive abilities than a potato he'd have lived. His wife and son also got shot to death because why not. Askanaz Mravyan was a soviet armenian minister of foreign affairs that participated in this treaty and I cannot find how he died but he died at 43 in the soviet union while holding some political position. Basically most to every early communist was killed and every single jewish communist from 1915-1920 got killed by papa Stalin. Then in the 1950s Stalin got paranoid about the jews again and he got poisonned probably by the serial rapist called Beriah, and oh no he put all the jewish doctors aka all the doctors in prison and there was no one around to help him. Karma. Talking about Karma Stalin during his life had bad events happen to him over and over again. The most famous one is when he wife that couldn't stand him just killed herself to make him suffer :) The most famous revolutionary that got executed story is probably Trotsky, that delusional guy fled to Mexico right? Literally the opposite side of earth. He criticized Stalin saying Stalin was "not real socialism" and Stalin wrote him out of history books and wanted him dead because Trotskism was "not real socialism". In a villa with bodyguards etc. He survived 1 raid in 1939 or 1940 whatever I'm just writting this as I go, and then weeks or months later he got attacked again. And he took an axe to the face. Trostky bodyguards tried beating the assassin to death but he stopped them to look like a good caring person. And then Trotsky slowly died with horrible pain. The murderer got a medla of honor, a few years of jail, and then lived a long and happy life. I don't know how much of history can be trusted but documents, physical proof, that does not contradict each other, that can be trusted. Some people did the research and every single name on the communist list got slaughtered. Every socialist co-conspirator that betrayed and killed Caesar a few months after he limited welfare programs was cut to pieces. Don't tell me it's a coincidence Caesar that had big support got killed just after reducing the amount of romans on welfare by half. Just got started on this intro and this is already long. I told you it was impossible to make a full idea. I am simply going to quote a few numbers about soviet production, the 1920s numbers come from marxists dot org & official soviet numbers, the ones from the second half of the century mostly come from declassified CIA documents. www.theodora.com Muh education! If I just find the right mentor I'll be a great profitable trader. Haha. "Education". So to sum up it sort of always follows the same pattern... The only countries that really try socialism are countries where money can fall from the sky, countries with natural ressources to sell to others so they can import. They crumble and slowly die over decades. The soviet union lasted 70 years. These guys have huge NatGas & Oil reserves and infinite forests. Extremely dumb people want socialism in countries where the natural ressource is the population. There are no giant ressources to extract. Socialism there can't last decades. It can last maybe a few weeks. And then you run out of stuff & other people's money (if they had foreign currencies or gold otherwise it will last a few days the time it takes for the country currency to go to zero). Haha. Venezuela has alot of Oil but it's expensive to extract and didn't work great for them. Videos of people in Zimbabwe & Venezuela going into euphoria a few years ago are easy to find. They're not smiling today thought 😬 Oh and today USA & UK socialists are against deforestation. And they are against extracting Oil & Natural Gas. 🙃 It's just beyond... And 70% of US millenials can't find France or the UK on a map. 11% can't even FIND THE USA! 50% have a positive view of socialism. 20% of young New Yorker think jews perpetrated the holocaust. There is no word to explain how unbelievably stupid they are. My imagination itself is not powerful enough to come up with how there can be such immense stupidity to come to those idiotic conclusions. When I was growing up it did not feel "normal" and I suspected something was wrong. Plebes were getting way dumber at an exponential rate. I was right. If I keep hitting my head against a wall will I wake up from this dream?
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by MrRenev
1
S&P to GDP shows the Bull Market is far from overThis is a simple study where I use the SPX to GDP ratio on the log scale in an attempt to determine how far (on the long-term) the current post-COVID sell-off rally can go. As you see the ratio is within a Channel Up since 1971 with clear Higher Highs and Higher Lows. I used the Fibonacci Channel to identify the pressure points and as you see the 0.382 - 0.618 zone is of high volatility, monopolizing the price action most of the time. The chart shows that we shouldn't expect a (long-term) bear cycle before the price either hits the Higher High trend-line or roughly completes a 410% rise. Do you agree? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
SP:SPXLong
by TradingShot
7
The myth of hyperinflation series- #3. Fed's effectivenessHow effective are Fed's monetary policies and tools? Fed has three simple goals- Grow GDP, keep inflation rate steady and keep the unemployment rate low. Some argue that Fed's perceived power over the market was exposed during several occasions- #1. During the 2008 in the midst of sub-prime mortgage crisis, the market continued to plunge despite the Fed's efforts to bail out Fannie & Freddie and other financial institutions, implement the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and issue $800b stimulus package. The market finally stopped the bleeding in early March 2009. #2. When Fed ended the QE3 in 2014 by announcing its attention to raise the interest rate and slash the Fed balance sheet, many people believed market would crash. Instead, market shot up to ATH in 2015. #3. This year during the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, Fed started out by cutting the rate by half percentage to no avail. Afterwards, Fed intensified its intervention effort by reducing Fed fund rate to zero. Nonetheless, the market tanked another 15% before it hit the bottom. One can point to the Fed-induced booming housing market in early 2000 as the major factor for the fast economic recovery after the Dot.com bubble and uses it as the counter example. Market is driven by crowd sentiment, but crowd sentiment, which in turns, is partially driven by Fed's decision. It is a chicken and egg conundrum. They both influence each other, but the degree to which each influences one another is impossible to discern. The safe conclusion to draw is that it would be overly optimistic to rely on Fed to get us out of the next financial crisis unscathed as it will take more and more stimulus package to get the job done. The best it can do is to mitigate the severity of damage. Next, let's examine some of the conditions and criteria that are related to inflation.
FRED:GFDEBTNEducation
by Libratus
1
Looking through the Fed Liquidity Lens, Also Inflation is comingPlaying with numbers, trying to view equity valuations through the lens of the modern Fed era. Realtive to M2 it looks like we're in a Bear-Market-Rally even though indexes are at ATH. It looks like we now live in a bizarro-world where equity prices in a Bear-Market go up while the money supply vastly outpaces productivity. The Fed is now saying that they aren't going to try to manage near-term inflation and will instead target a longer-term "average" inflation value of 2%, allowing for higher rates in the near future to begin making up for the long period lower rates we've seen the past few decades. This sounds to me like the Fed realizes that, thanks to their unlimited liquidity, inflation is coming and also that they realize they no longer have the ability to do anything about it; they're stating this change in strategy now as a preemptive excuse, hoping that it will keep markets from freaking out when the inevitable happens. Anyone else have thoughts on this?
SP:SPX
by RobBiddle
3
Money Supply (M1) / GDP - 2M ChartMilton Friedman's Money-Supply Rule: Growth of the Money Supply << Rate of Growth of Real GDP = Recession --There is not enough money to buy what has been produced. Growth of the Money Supply >> Rate of Growth of Real GDP = Inflation --There is an abundance of money and not enough goods - prices will rise Growth of the Money Supply == Rate of Growth of Real GDP = Equilibrium Bottom Line: We are entering a severe inflationary period. Prices have increased a lot over 90 years and should be seeing this trend continue. --Gold, Silver, Commodities, Assets will continue to increase as long as the below remains true. --The Feds have resorted to unlimited quantitative easing to fight a deflationary spiral that would cause mass bankruptcies, unemployment, and credit/ liquidity shortages. --Negative Interest Rates Next?
FRED:WM1NS
by Three-Bull-Insight
16
This will end, probably badly. How high does it go?Tech is clearly a bigger part of the real economy (GDP) today compared to 20 years ago, but even with that in mind this market is in the Stratosphere. Will everyone keep buying no matter the price because TINA (There is no alternative) due to artificially low interest rates. Do recessionary conditions in the broad economy no longer matter? Do business fundamentals no longer matter? Will continued stimulus and bailouts render high unemployment moot? Universal Basic Income for the poor and a never-ending equity boom for the rich? The Everything bubble is in full force with equities, commodities, crypto, junk debt, real estate and nearly everything else you can buy/sell going up in value. Cash is trash and punishing holders. Everyone is a trader and turning a quick profit almost no matter what they buy. Bad news is fine as long as it's better than yesterdays' headline. Silver linings on dark clouds seem to be all that is needed to justify a moonshot. The top is usually way higher than most think, but it's up there somewhere and the air is pretty thin. If prices are to come back down to something closer to historic norms what will be the trigger to start the inevitable avalanche? The thought that it has to be something worse than what we've already experienced this year is sobering.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by RobBiddle
Dax daily: 31 Jul 2020Congratulations to all traders who went short with us yesterday. Another success to add to our analysis records. Just as we expected, Dax slipped away from the consolidation range and took a prudent southern direction right after the open. The momentum was rapid and the price pierced through two support levels. If you were aiming our target at 12 592, we congratulate you for a lovely 200 points of profit. Important zones Resistance: 12 494, 12 592 Support: 12 278, 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax shifted to the new territory after yesterday's sell-off and bounced off the support at 12 278. The disappointing print of German GDP was the movement catalyst and chances are the bearish momentum will prevail. The price is currently in between two S/R zones and might possibly stay there as Friday's session are usually slower. We anticipate the overnight gap to get closed.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
So... What is next? Shortest recession in play?Stock market - Against all odds, S&P index has risen almost 32% since hitting a low for the year on March 23. The fact that it happened after a ferocious plunge of 35% between Feb. 20 and March 23, the most devastating sell-off since the great depression, made the feat even more remarkable. As a matter of fact, the market posted its best quarter since 1998, with Nasdaq leading the way by soaring 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999. Some speculated that the fast recovery was due to the big outflow of money from the fixed-income market into the stock market as emerging market fails to meet its debt obligation. Others credited young investors (medium age of 31) on Robinhood (3 millions user added 2020, 13 millions total) with stock market's spectacular rally. I personally doubt that the combined purchasing power of all Robinhood users is strong enough to sway the stock market. Nonetheless, the stock market performance is not representative of the entire economy as there are more than 30 millions small & mid-sized company not listed on major U.S stock exchanges GDP - What is even more incredible about the stock market's recovery is that it all happened after various sources estimated the GDP contraction to be around 30% to 50% in second quarter Recently, Fed and policymakers projected the economy to shrink 6.5% (medium projection) in 2020 and the unemployment rate to be 9.3% at the end of the year Corporate earning - According to data from S&P Capital IQ, 40 percent of the S&P 500, about 200 companies, have withdrawn their guidance and declined to make EPS estimate in 2020. This lack of guidance has caused a lot of problem for the prediction of corporate earning. A recent analysis by CNBC earnings editor Robert Hum showed enormous differences at historical level between the high and low estimates for the largest stocks in the S&P 500. According to numbers compiled by the data provider FactSet, second-quarter profits will fall more than 40 percent. Refinitiv is projecting about a 43% drop in second-quarter earnings. Expect to get a more clear picture of corporate earnings around mid-July as banks release their corporate earnings. Even though the stock market is reflecting more of future sentiment than current economic condition, the speed of its recovery seems to indicate that most investors believe that not only will the market erase all the losses in 2020, but also it will quickly resume the long-term growth trend equals that of 2019, which seems highly unlikely to me. Again, it is hard not to notice the massive distortion between the stock market's performance and corporate earning. Unemployment - Initially, the hope is that most temporary layoffs would not turn into permanent job loss. However, as lockdown extends, many furloughed employees are at the risk of becoming unemployed as more and more small businesses going out of the business. Roughly 20 million Americans are currently receiving unemployment benefits and the insured unemployment rate is still high at 13.4%. BLS said that discrepancy in unemployment # due to "misclassification" has been adjusted accordingly. An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed fell to 18% from 21.2%. Overall, better than expected unemployment # and steadily declining initial claim and continuous claim # have painted a much better picture for the labor market. However, unemployment remains at historic levels. Output and employment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Pandemic - WHO reported around 180,000 new coronavirus cases last Sunday, the single-largest increase since the pandemic began, with two thirds of new cases coming from the Americas. Around half of the 50 U.S. states were also reporting a rise in new coronavirus cases, most notable in southern states that were previously spared from the Covid-19 ravage. On Tuesday, United States recorded the biggest single-day rise in new cases since the pandemic began. According to Bloomberg report, most experts believe a vaccine won’t be ready until next year. Other factors - Trade war with China and upcoming election... #1. Median existing-home price last month was $284,600, up 2.3% from May 2019. #2. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.13% for the week ending June 18. Mortgage rates have drop to another record low. #3. The number of Americans applying for home mortgages has hit an 11-year high. #4. An index measuring homes in contract to sell, or pending sales, jumped by a record 44% in May. #5. A record spike in U.S. retail sales, though the recovery happened after a huge dive of retail sales a month earlier. #6. PMI has surged sharply after a huge plunge since the pandemic started. It is possible that the # is skewed by the lack of small business participation and the effect of China re-opened its economy ahead of other major economy. I believe most current home buyers are not heavily impacted during this economic downturn and their purchase decisions are probably not indicative of the economic recovery. Shortest recession is made possible because this economic crash was driven by the uncertainty of pandemic rather than economic fundamentals? I don't know. But if you only look at real estate and stock market, it surely seems so.
AMEX:SPY
by Libratus
2
S&P 500 U Shape Recovery 2020-2022The impossible "V-shaped" The year 2020, a bad memory quickly forgotten? No, warn more and more economists, alarmed by the violence of the shock in the first half. They expect a slow recovery, provided that a second wave of the new coronavirus does not strike. The IMF has also made it clear that, despite the expected rebound, world GDP in 2021 would come out cut by 6.5% compared to what was expected before the pandemic. Some sectors are affected for a long time, especially in services. Perfect example: tourism and travel. No catching up possible for empty rooms, meals never served, planes nailed to the ground. Did IATA, the international air transport association, not warn that it did not expect to return to normal before ... 2023? In industry, factories face many health restrictions. Farmers all over the world are struggling due to the lack of foreign workers. Exit therefore, the "V" scenario that some people were still hoping for in February. Rather, it is a "U-shaped" scenario that emerges at best, with several months of recession before the economy recovers. See a "W" with alternating rebounds and relapses. Or, worse yet, an "L" with depressed activity for a very long time.
SP:SPXShort
by Nugacity_Fracedinous
Let's Compare Some Recent Bubbles..Some that claim that markets are forward looking and see better things ahead. These markets saw nothing coming and ran right into disaster and now they’re simply jumping on the Fed liquidity train again, the very train that got them trapped in the first place. No lesson has been learned. How do we know that? Because the very same mistakes are again repeated and driven to new and even more historic extremes. This proves that this is a market driven by a handful of large cap stocks. This means that we are in the midst of a very much distorted and disoriented marketplace. This is the best market a trillion in central bank intervention can buy. A distorted overvalued market completely disconnected from the fundamental picture. 21:53:03 ( UTC ) Fri Jun 12, 2020
SP:SPXShort
by TayFx
19
Watching for possible blow-off top, then shorting into JulyAs my followers know, I've been mostly sitting in cash and silver waiting for sanity to return to this market. Y'all bought stocks, and all I bought was popcorn, and it turns out the joke's on me. Here's how big the gap between price and fundamentals has gotten. On June 1, GDPNow reduced its Q2 GDP forecast to -52.8%. This is down over 10% in the last week. As stocks approach all-time highs, the US Congressional Budget Office forecasted a couple days ago that GDP over the next ten years will be about $7.9 trillion lower than previously forecast, and it may take 10 years for employment to return to pre-pandemic levels. In corporate earnings, FactSet notes that the consensus estimate for 2020 SPX earnings per share has declined by 28.0% while $SPX price has decreased by only 6.2% since December 31. We are finally seeing a slowdown in downward estimate revisions, but it remains to be seen whether estimates have actually reached a bottom. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 21.5 is at its highest level since January 2002, even as the risks are rising. We've added over $4 trillion in global corporate debt this year, even as credit rating agencies downgrade existing debt at an unprecedented pace. S&P Global has downgraded 247 issues in the last month and now has 1,287 on its potential downgrade list, surpassing the previous record of 1,028 from April 2009. So what's driving the indexes upward? Three things: unprecedented speculation from zero-commission retail traders, Fed liquidity, and the hope of more stimulus from Congress. I definitely expect the disconnect between price and fundamentals to go away eventually, but the question is when it will happen and what the catalyst will be. The combination of nationwide riots and technical resistance might cause at least a short-term pullback. We're now approaching some important resistance levels in both SPY and Nasdaq. SPY is approaching its top from March, and QQQ is approaching all-time highs. Generally I would expect a technical pullback from these levels and possibly the beginning of a big correction, and it seems like a lot of other traders are thinking along the same lines. We're currently seeing the largest futures net short position in SPY since 9/2015. However, I've decided not to play this particular resistance level, because IMO the massive short interest creates the possibility of shorts getting crushed in a short squeeze. We've also entered a clearance area on the volume profile, which means there's not much resistance until we hit about 322. The 9/2015 high in short interest led to an 8% gain the following month. Only in the four months after that did SPY finally sell off 14%. It also seems possible that we'll get another Congressional stimulus package in the next month, including either another round of stimulus checks, or an infrastructure bill, or both. Personally I am looking for the correction to start in late June or early July. In the last decade or two, June has been the last month of the bull market season, followed by seasonal weakness in July-September. June tends to be an especially strong month for tech stocks, and we're likely to see that pattern repeat this year. Waiting till July gives stimulus optimism and economic reopening optimism the opportunity to play themselves out, perhaps climaxing in a blow-off top as shorts get squeezed up to 322 ahead of the correction. Any parabolic move in SPY would be the signal to start shorting this market as we head into seasonal weakness in the summer.
AMEX:SPY
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
11
GDP. Unemployment. China. PMI. All good for TVIX?There is undeniable toxicity in the economy. Fear sent the TVIX to an over 800% bullrun followed by market calming. So, is it over? Can we expect another run from TVIX? The answer: Yes! One only has to look at the economics to see what is coming and already here. Today, we are looking at some of the worst numbers in economic history. I've always said that the stock market is a lagging indicator and investors will see the truth. I've said it before.. we are coming up on the 2nd leg down of this market. We're at the Return to Normal phase of the asset bubble chart. Look at the hard economic data: GDP - Lowest on record. Unemployment - Highest on record. Debt - Surpassing records monthly. Deficit - Growing, even though there is a slowdown. Chicago PMI collapsed to 32.2 vs estimated 40! UMich Consumer Sentiment fell to 7-Year low. Bankruptcies numbers are growing 4.75 million homeowners are in forbearance. This is just a portion of whats going on. The amount of foreclosures and bankruptcies from average people and small businesses is growing at a faster rate than 2008. Just look at the hard data and stop buying into the false CNBC euphoric message of "the economy is recovering fast" nonsense because these were the same people who said "there is no housing crisis in late 2007". TVIX Price Target(s): 1st - $200 2nd - $400 3rd - $700 4th - $1,100
TLong
by WorldEconomics
8