BUY XAUUSD | GC | GOLDDear traders, you can buy XAUUSD | GC | GOLD with the same entry, TP and SL.
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GC1! (Gold Futures)
GOLD → The target is liquidity above 2670-2685. What's next?FX:XAUUSD is consolidating in the local range of 2663 - 2636. There is a strong resistance and liquidity zone ahead. Bears may meet the market quite aggressively in the 2670 - 2685 zone.
The global rally is smoothly transitioning into a sideways fljt 2675 - 2604.
- Markets in China, which strongly supported gold after hints of fiscal stimulus is again facing challenges.
- Interest rates in the US should not be forgotten. The open question is “no interest rate cut” or “0.25% cut”. Will gold be able to stay bullish on the current flat under these circumstances?
- The dollar is rallying after last week's fundamental data and most likely the index's rise is not over... Fed policy makers are starting to change their mindset again and divide into 2 camps - aggressive / restrained.
- BUT! The conflict in the Middle East is cooling down from its limits. Based on the above mentioned, can we assume that the finger is hanging over the button “fix profit”????
Resistance levels: 2663, 2670, 2685
Support levels: 2645, 2636, 2623
Based on the general fundamental background, I do not yet understand the reasons that give such support to gold. There is a strong resistance zone ahead with huge liquidity. The price is in a sideways range and there are no preconditions to exit this channel yet. Most likely, the first retest of the levels ( it has been 2 weeks since the last retest ) may end in a reversal and correction
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
BUY XAUUSD / GC / GOLDHello traders, you can guy on XAUUSD/GC/GOLD at the same price, TP and SL set on the chart.
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XAUUSD Bullish Leg just started. Low risk buy.Gold (XAUUSD) gave us the short-term signal we wanted last week (October 07, see chart below) and after hitting our 2625 Target, it rebounded:
This rebound is technically the start of the new Bullish Leg of the 2-month Channel Up. If it repeats the previous Leg, then one last test of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is possible before further upside, which is also illustrated by the 4H RSI fractals between the Accumulation sequences that preceded the rallies.
Based on the last two Bullish Legs, we should reach at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level before the next 4H MA50 correction. As a result our new medium-term Target is 2750.
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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 14 - Oct 18]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD have continuously decreased in the early sessions of the week to nearly 2,602 USD/oz because market expectations about the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (FED) began to change. . Last week's strong jobs report, combined with a higher-than-expected rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), forced the market to temper expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Fed next month.
However, economic experts note that the slowing US economy will continue to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, albeit at a slightly slower pace. This combined with US consumer sentiment falling to 68.9 points, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict remaining complicated, pushed gold prices back up to 2,661 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,657. USD/oz.
Although the FED may reduce the pace of interest rate cuts in the near future, investors should not forget that US monetary policy is only one factor affecting gold prices. Notably, many central banks have officially announced they will continue to buy gold reserves.
As central bank demand continues to dominate the gold market, new questions are being raised about where all that money is going and what impact it has on the dollar. Certainly, reducing the proportion of USD in foreign exchange reserves of many countries will cause the USD to gradually depreciate.
In addition, BRICS member countries are promoting local currency swaps and using electronic currencies in international trade, also creating significant downward pressure on the USD.
In addition, the record high level of US public debt is weakening the purchasing power of the USD.
The USD has been under a lot of downward pressure, so of course it will positively support gold prices in the medium and long term.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, there are continuous periods of sideways accumulation, then continuously creating new high prices afterward. And this time is no exception if the price breaks the peak of 2,685 USD/oz.
Currently, the support level is established around the circular resistance level of 2600, while the resistance level is around the 2685 mark. Next week, if the gold price trades above the 2625 threshold, we can expect the price to continue to increase beyond the 2700 threshold.
In case the support mark of 2600 is penetrated, the gold price will temporarily decrease and adjust below the level of 2555.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.555 – 2.600 – 2.625USD
Resistance: 2.700 – 2.685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2620
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2554 - 2556⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2550
GOLD rose for two consecutive sessions after inflation dataOANDA:XAUUSD rose on Friday (October 11), after US inflation data reinforced the prospect of lower interest rates this year, keeping the dollar below recent peaks, amid haven demand. Safety stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also boosted gold.
At the end of the trading session on October 11, the spot gold contract increased 1% to 2,656.09 USD/oz, increasing for the second consecutive session. Gold futures contracts added 1.3% to 2,674.40 USD/oz.
The PPI producer price index in the US was unchanged in September, showing that the inflation outlook remains favorable and supporting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates next month.
The PPI data looks friendly to precious metals bulls and shows that the Fed is still on track to lower interest rates this year.
This data comes after CPI data in the US rose slightly higher than forecast last month, however, the annual inflation increase was at the lowest level in more than 3 and a half years.
The dollar steadied below a 2-month peak on Friday.
On the physical front, gold dealers in India charged premiums for the first time in two months this week as the upcoming festive season attracted some buying of copper jewellery.
Gold holdings of ETFs increased to nearly 95 tons in the third quarter. This means ETFs are contributing positively to gold demand again for the first time in 10 quarters.
XAUUSD Turned bullish again.Gold / XAUUSD continues to trade inside June's Channel Up.
Its recent bearish leg has managed to find support on the 0.382 Fib and rebounded, closing today its 2nd straight green 1day candle.
This is the start of the new bullish leg and the minimum rise such a leg had inside the pattern was +7.55%.
With that in mind, buy and target 2800 by mid November.
Previous chart:
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GOLD recovers strongly from support area, eye US PPIOn Friday (October 11) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price has just exceeded 2,645 USD/ounce, increasing more than 15 USD during the day.
While US CPI data was slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly. This caused the US Dollar index to decrease significantly. In addition, tensions in the Middle East also attracted a wave of safe-haven gold buying.
On Thursday, although US CPI data came in slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly.
Data on Thursday showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) in September rose 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations for a 2.3% increase. Core CPI increased by 3.3% over the same period last year, exceeding expectations and the 3.2% increase in August.
Additionally, US CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, a similar increase to the previous month and above the consensus estimate of 0.1%. The US core CPI growth rate in September was stable at 0.3% over the previous month, exceeding expectations of 0.2%.
The data also showed the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims last week rose to the highest level in more than a year, reflecting a weakening labor market partly due to a rise in jobless claims. strong in Michigan and the effects of Hurricane Helene.
OANDA:XAUUSD supported by broad-based risk aversion and a softer USD ahead of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data released later on Friday.
On Thursday evening local time, the Israeli security cabinet held a meeting to decide how to respond to Iran's large-scale missile attack on Israel on the 1st of this month.
Science Minister Gila Gamliel, a member of Israel's security cabinet, said the security cabinet would "make the right decision" to prevent another Iranian attack.
Gamliel told Israeli public broadcaster Kan that revenge was imminent and could happen at any time.
US and Israeli officials told Axios that US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved closer to the scope of Israel's planned retaliation against Iran during their phone call on Wednesday, media reported. American news agency Axios reported on Thursday (local time). The Biden administration admits that Israel will soon launch a major attack on Iran.
Pay attention to PPI data
US annual PPI growth in September is expected to slow to 1.6% while year-on-year core PPI growth in September is expected to increase to 2.7%, compared to previous growth of 2.4% in August.
PPI data is almost as influential as CPI data and is also expected to create strong fluctuations in the market.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has recovered significantly from the key support area that readers noticed in the publications before gold adjusted down to the 2,608 – 2,600 USD area.
The recovery gains achieved the initial target at $2,634 and broke this level, which would qualify gold to continue towards the next target at $2,660 in the short term.
There are no changes in the technical structure that support the upside, with the Relative Strength Index also folding upward from 50, which is seen as the closest support in terms of momentum.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish and notable levels are listed below.
Support: 2,634 – 2,630 – 2,626USD
Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2663 - 2661⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2667
→Take Profit 1 2656
↨
→Take Profit 2 2655
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2618
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633
GOLD → Retest of descending channel resistance in front of PPI..FX:XAUUSD is forming a double bottom from which a rally towards strong resistance is forming. CPI showed worse than expected data, surprisingly. Manipulation? Price has not yet moved out of the corrective channel. Ahead of PPI.
Annual inflation fell from 2.5% to 2.4% (expected 2.3%). The probability of a 0.25% interest rate cut in November rose to 86% (vs. 0.5%) The disappointing Initial Jobless Claims data in the US overshadowed the hot CPI data for September, keeping the hope of a rate cut in November...
Ahead is PPI, a fairly important report that could affect prices...
The metal is trapped in a descending channel and there is a huge liquidity density above 2645. The bears, the custodians of this liquidity, may put aggressive pressure if PPI shows strong data...
Resistance levels: 2645, 2651, 2660
Support levels: 2637, 2623, 2600
Technically, gold is in a correction phase. From the bottom of the channel a strong movement of 2% has been formed and there is not much potential to break through the resistance. The most probable outcome is a decline after a false breakdown or consolidation below 2640. BUT! It is not excluded that a surprise in the news can turn the picture in the opposite direction....
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD is affected by the Middle EastAs recent jobs data prompted investors to lower expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, and as tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing, gold prices fell. strong but it seems this is just a profit-taking move and not a downtrend with solid conditions.
Following last week's positive jobs report, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool, the market currently predicts an 86.8% chance of a 25% rate cut. basic point.
Markets will focus on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting to be released on Thursday, followed by US consumer price index data on Thursday and producer price index data on Thursday. out on Friday.
US inflation data due out on Thursday is expected to show price pressures continuing to ease, but there is little further push for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further in the meantime. next time. Therefore, the current gold price trend is temporarily governed by geopolitical developments.
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting. The market will have additional trading materials from the meeting minutes. The Federal Reserve almost unanimously agreed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting.
In addition to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, many Federal Reserve officials will speak during this trading day, including Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson, Fed Chairman Richmond Barkin, Fed Chairman Atlanta Bostic, Fed President Dallas Logan and Chicago Fed President Gu lsby.
Regarding the situation in the Middle East, Lebanese Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem said in a televised speech at an undisclosed location on Tuesday that he supported the efforts of the National Assembly Speaker. Lebanon Berri aimed to promote a ceasefire without specifying Hezbollah's proposal. It is worth noting that this is the first time that Hezbollah does not consider ending the war in Gaza a prerequisite for ending fighting in Israel and Lebanon.
OANDA:XAUUSD known for its stability and as a tool to prevent geopolitical and economic risks, and when geopolitical risks show some signs of cooling down, gold also falls due to weakening shelter demand.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is correcting but there are also signs of recovery from the EMA21 level, the key support level you will pay attention to throughout these publications.
With the main trend from the price channel and the EMA21 level not being broken below, gold's technical outlook still has conditions for price increases.
In the short term, holding above $2,608 – $2,600 provides room for gold to recover with the nearest target at $2,634 and more to $2,660 once it breaks above initial resistance at $2,634.
The relative strength index RSI points down with a moderate slope and is close to the area of the 50 level, the 50 level is considered the closest support level currently, the RSI pointing up from this level will be considered a signal price increase.
As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, it still has enough upside and notable levels are listed below.
Support: 2,608 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,634 – 2,660USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2650
→Take Profit 1 2639
↨
→Take Profit 2 2634
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2590
→Take Profit 1 2601
↨
→Take Profit 2 2606
The dollar surge takes a breather, pullback pending?We finally saw the USD rebound I was beating the drum about back in September. But now it's hit a decent resistance zone, I weigh up its potential to hold its ground or producer a deeper pullback. Markets covered include the USD index, EUR/USD and gold.
MS.
GOLD recovers moderately after sharp declineOANDA:XAUUSD maintained a moderate intraday recovery after yesterday's sharp decline. Gold price is currently trading around 2,611 USD/ounce.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed that the vast majority of Fed officials favored a significant 50 basis point interest rate cut. Traders' focus now turns to the US CPI data released today.
Today the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Investors will focus on this report for more data to evaluate on the US interest rate outlook.
The market expects US annual CPI growth in September to decrease from 2.5% to 2.3%. CPI in September is expected to increase by 0.1% over the previous month, lower than the previous increase of 0.2%.
The annual US core CPI growth rate in September is expected to remain at 3.2%; Core CPI growth rate compared to the previous month in September is expected to decrease from 0.3% to 0.2%.
The market estimates inflation will continue to decline, data equal to or lower than expected would be a very positive signal for gold prices. However, if inflation is higher than the previous period, it will open the door for expectations that the Fed will pause the monetary policy easing cycle and this is not beneficial for gold, boosting the US Dollar.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is trying to hold above key technical levels above the $2,600 full price and above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level.
Temporarily, the recovery momentum is quite weak, hindered by the EMA21 level. However, conditions still allow gold prices to rise technically with the trend channel not broken below, on the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching the 50 level, showing some signs of being broken. bend and if RSI points up it will be a positive signal for gold prices.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has conditions to increase in price. In case gold is sold below the level of 2,600 USD, confirmed by the price penetrating the level of 2,594 USD, it will tend to decrease further with the target level being able to reach 2,560 USD, the price point of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement.
During the day, gold still has a technical outlook that leans heavily towards price increases with notable levels listed below.
Support: 2,608 – 2,600 – 2,594USD
Resistance: 2,618 – 2,634 – 2,660USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2636 - 2634⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2640
→Take Profit 1 2629
↨
→Take Profit 2 2624
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2585
→Take Profit 1 2596
↨
→Take Profit 2 2601
Can SILVER BREAKOUT above 32.50?Silver (along with every other beaten down commodity) exploded on the news of China's stimulus! Unfortunately for silver bugs "somebody" was lying in wait with a mighty big hammer when it poked its head above 32.50.
In a vacuum the fundamentals (supply/demand) are incredibly bullish. However in the macro context of China's housing and economic woes there is a bear case to be made for base and industrial metals. If Copper starts rolling over I expect Silver to follow. Raw cash injections might keep Chinese stocks afloat but I do not believe it alter the reality of the real economy and its effect on commodities.
In addition to the issues with China, the US is at serious risk of a recession. 50 basis point cut has never been bullish. If you take the time to look at the last initial 50 basis point cuts it might curb your enthusiasm. I know... this time "its different"
TECHNICALS:
Silver may retrace to the $30 breakout level.... Great re-entry... if it holds... ( ;
If Silver is able to hold above 32.50 the rally remains intact.
Buying XAUUSD to take out Buyside LiquidityIn a buy trade on the 5 mins timeframe. Looking to take out equal highs from the Asian range.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: GOLD | XAUUSDGOLD | XAUUSD is in consolidation currently. I am waiting for it to touch down at the Weekly +FVG and move higher. I'm interested more in long setups versus shorts. Patience usually pays, so I wait and watch for valid setups to form this week.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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GOLD → The pressure from above is building. New lows...FX:XAUUSD stops testing local highs. Strong growth has stopped and the price is being squeezed between the boundaries of the narrowing consolidation. The exit of the price from the figure will be accompanied by an impulse...
Last week changed the general fundamental background, gold traders are getting nervous and moving into a phase of profit taking on the back of strong economic data. Ahead is the FOMC meeting where further steps to regulate the US economy will be discussed.
Technically, gold stops trying to update or test the highs, feeling pressure from above, but at the same time the price is probing the base from below, gradually updating the local lows. A gradually narrowing consolidation is forming on the chart and if there is a price exit from the figure, it will be accompanied by a strong impulse.
Resistance levels: 2650, 2659
Support levels: 2632, 2623, 2613
I continue to hold that bears will continue to press the price, which will provoke the price exit downwards with further retest of 2623-2613-2600. But we need to keep an eye on the regulators' comments and the dollar's behavior...
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
NF data is coming in, GOLD remains stable with rising channelOANDA:XAUUSD Continuing to maintain the recovery trend with a slight increase in the Asian trading session on October 4, gold is currently trading at 2,661 USD/oz, a slight increase equivalent to 0.21% on the day and about 5 USD as of today. the time the article was completed.
Investors will release the US nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to cause major volatility in the gold market.
US nonfarm payroll employment is expected to increase by 140,000 in September.
The US non-farm payrolls report for September will be released, this is the most important data this week.
Surveys show the number of nonfarm workers in the United States is expected to increase by a seasonally adjusted 140,000 in September, following a gain of 142,000 in August. US unemployment rate expected will remain unchanged at 4.2% in September.
In addition to changes in overall nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate, investors need to focus on average hourly earnings data, which can provide important signals about inflation. broadcast.
The average annual hourly wage increase in the United States in September is expected to be unchanged from 3.8% the previous month. Surveys show average hourly wages in the United States are expected to rise 0.3% in September, following a 0.4% increase in August.
The September non-farm payrolls report is the next important economic data in the US that could affect Fed policy. If non-farm data is stronger than expected, this could further weaken expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply in November, thereby pushing the dollar higher and creating pressure. for gold price.
Conversely, if non-farm employment data is lower than expected, this will be a positive signal for gold prices as it will boost expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply, and cause the currency to US Dollar weakens again.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is still trading fairly stable with an uptrend after recovering from corrections and from the support area noted by readers in the previous issue at the lower edge of the price channel, confluence with horizontal support at 2,634USD.
In terms of structure, there are no changes compared to previous publications, still an uptrend highlighted by the price channel and weekly target level at 2,672USD.
Once the $2,672 level is broken above, gold will have room to continue rising a little further with a target then around $2,685.
As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension at $2,624, it still has a short-term technical bullish outlook. Notable levels are listed below.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634 – 2,624USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2689
↨
→Take Profit 2 2684
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2615
→Take Profit 1 2626
↨
→Take Profit 2 2631
GOLD stabilized at the beginning of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD It is still trading quite stably as at the beginning of the week there were no macro data or events that created a shock on the market.
On Tuesday (October 8) in the Asian market, spot gold is currently trading around 2,643 USD/ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSD weakened on Monday due to a significant rise in US bond yields, but gold's decline was limited as geopolitical tensions still had the potential for unexpected spikes.
Gold prices reached a record high of 2,685.42 USD/ounce on September 26. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments.
Last week's US jobs report reinforced beliefs that the economy is unlikely to require significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the rest of the year, with traders currently pricing in There is an 86% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by just 25bps next month.
The market will focus on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes, as well as US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data this week.
In addition, China's central bank did not buy gold for reserves in September for the fifth consecutive month.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold has had 4 consecutive days of decline, the price declines were not strong and did not create any breakthroughs, as the declines were limited and recovered quickly.
Temporarily, the price drops should only be considered a technical correction without any impact on the main uptrend with the nearest support at 2,634 USD. Note to previous readers.
The main support follows the EMA21 line, with gold recovering above the 2,645 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it will have conditions to set expectations to retest the 2,672 USD level once again.
The relative strength index points down with a very moderate slope, not a significant bearish signal.
In case the $2,634 level breaks below gold there is still some other support from the 0.618% Fibonacci level and the EMA21 moving average.
There is no change in the main trend with price channel as the long-term trend, and notable technical levels are listed again as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,624USD
Resistance: 2,645 – 2,659 – 2,672USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2666 - 2664⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2670
→Take Profit 1 2659
↨
→Take Profit 2 2654
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2615
→Take Profit 1 2626
↨
→Take Profit 2 2631
GOLD follows geopolitical trendsOANDA:XAUUSD fell on Friday (October 4) after a better-than-expected US jobs report dampened expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, boosting the dollar. However, geopolitical risks related to Israel and Iran supported gold prices, limiting the downward adjustment.
The U.S. labor market added more jobs than expected in September, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, reflecting the job market outlook, the U.S. Department of Labor reported last Friday. much stronger than expected.
New U.S. nonfarm payrolls totaled 254,000 in September, above August's revised 159,000 and better than market expectations of 150,000. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1% month-on-month to 4.1% in September. The market expects the unemployment rate to stabilize at 4.2%.
As a key indicator of inflationary pressures, annual wage growth increased to 4% from 3.9% in August, a monthly increase of 0.4%, in line with August data, The labor force participation rate was unchanged from the previous month at 62.7%.
After strong employment data, the market expects that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, while lowering expectations for interest rate cuts at the next four Fed meetings to less than 100 basis points.
According to CME Group's "Fed Watch Tool", the market currently predicts the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 97.4% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 2.6%. .
Israel does not guarantee not to carry out retaliatory attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities
On Friday (October 4) local time, a senior US State Department official announced that Israel has not assured the Biden administration that it will not carry out retaliatory attacks against facilities. Iran's nuclear program.
Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening a new, much more dangerous front in the war raging across the Middle East.
The US official added that it was difficult to know whether Israel would launch a retaliatory strike on October 7, the first anniversary of a major attack by Hamas on Israel.
Israeli officials say Israel will launch "retaliation" in the next few days after a major Iranian missile attack, possibly targeting oil production facilities and other strategic locations in Iran - according to Axios reported Wednesday.
Iran threatened Tuesday to launch another attack if Israel responded with force following the launch of nearly 200 missiles.
Axios also reported Israeli officials saying that if this happens, all options will be on the table, including an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
This week, the US will release inflation data, initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index. At the same time, the geopolitical situation will continue to limit the decline in gold prices. An escalation in the conflict involving Hezbollah, Iran, Israel and the United States would be expected to provide potential support for new highs in gold prices.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Wednesday: Minutes of September FOMC meeting
Thursday: US Consumer Price Index(CPI), Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday: U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold had a highly volatile trading week but overall remained stable with an uptrend, and all downward corrections recovered quickly when reaching support levels of interest to readers at 2,624 - 2,645 USD.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down from the overbought level, but the slope is not large and does not create any significant decline, showing that the market sentiment does not want to short-sell gold and the selling motivation is very weak.
The trend of gold price will still be stable with short-term price channel and EMA21 as main support. As long as gold remains in the price channel, its technical outlook is still bullish.
The target level is fixed at 2,672 USD, which means the nearest resistance is at 2,672 USD followed by the previously established all-time high of 2,685 USD.
In the coming time, the gold price outlook will be shaped by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,645 – 2,634 – 2,624USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2673 - 2671⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2677
→Take Profit 1 2666
↨
→Take Profit 2 2661
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2629 - 2631⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2625
→Take Profit 1 2636
↨
→Take Profit 2 2641
XAUUSD Rejection on the 4H MA50 gives a short-term sell signal.Gold (XAUUSD) appears to have entered a ranged phase, similar to the 'Accumulation Rectangle' pattern of August 19 - September 11. This (almost) 1 month consolidation was the accumulation pattern that the market used in order to fuel the next big Bullish Leg, supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
The 4H MA50 was acting as a Pivot though during the Rectangle and a rejection on September 02 there, caused the last Support (bottom) test before it started the recovery process. We believe we might be on a similar stage as the 4H RSI is posting a similar Lower Highs trend-line.
As a result, we believe that the current potential rejection on the 4H MA50 is a short-term sell opportunity, targeting 2625.
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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 07 - Oct 11]In the beginning of last week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 2,624 USD/oz to 2,672 USD/oz due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Immediately afterwards, international gold prices dropped to close to 2,631 USD/oz after US non-agricultural employment figures for September were announced at 254,000 jobs, much higher than the forecast of 147,000 jobs. The unemployment rate also decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. In addition, wages increased more than expected when they increased by 0.4% last month. This reduces expectations that the FED will continue to cut interest rates by 0.5% next month. However, concerns about the escalating Middle East conflict pushed gold prices up to 2,670 USD/oz, then closed the week at 2,653 USD/oz.
This week, the US will release the minutes of the FED meeting and inflation indicators, such as the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI). Previously, the FED paid more attention to labor market data. Now the escalating geopolitical conflict threatens to push oil prices up even more, putting pressure on inflation, so CPI and PPI will receive special attention from the market. If these two figures increase sharply, the FED may delay, or only cut interest rates by 0.25% next month. This will have a negative impact on gold prices next week, possibly pushing gold prices below the 2,600 USD/oz area.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, the gold price moves sideways and accumulates in a triangle model. If the 2630 support zone is penetrated, the gold price will adjust to below 2600. However, if the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates strongly, it is possible that next week's gold price will break its peak. 2,700 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.600 – 2.625USD
Resistance: 2.700 – 2.676USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2711 - 2709⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2715
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2585
GOLD → Ahead of NonFarm Payrolls. What to expect from gold?FX:XAUUSD is in consolidation with gradually narrowing local extrema. NonFarm Payrolls are ahead and traders are getting nervous about further movement. Up for renewal of highs or a long-awaited correction?
Before NFP, traders resorted to adjusting positions, taking profits on the US dollar rally (reasons: strong employment and PMI data from ISM). The encouraging data weakened bets on an aggressive interest rate cut by the Fed. However, the decline in gold prices remains subdued due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The future direction of the gold price will be determined by the upcoming US employment data. Gold could move into a correction if NFP shows an upside surprise, which would impact the USD rally and strengthen bets for a 0.25% Fed rate cut in November. Conversely...
Resistance levels: 2665, 2673, 2685
Support levels: 2653, SMA 200 & 50, 2640
The SMAs are narrowing, which could also be a hint of a possible correction (if there is a crossover). Technically gold is ready for a correction, but fundamentally, unpredictable news may affect further growth. Analysts are inclined to the beginning of correction on the background of strong economic data of the first half of the week
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD decreased slightly after the US employment reportOANDA:XAUUSD fell in the trading session on Friday (October 4), when traders almost stopped betting on the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in next meeting. Interest rate expectations moved strongly after the market received the US September employment report much better than expected.
At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market decreased by 2.2 USD/oz compared to the closing level of the previous session, equivalent to a decrease of 0.08%, to 2,654.3 USD/oz - according to data from the exchange. Kitco translation. For the whole week, spot gold price decreased by 4.6 USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of 0.17%.
A report from the US Department of Labor shows that the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector in September reached 254,000 jobs, far exceeding the forecast of 150,000 new jobs that economists made in a survey by Dow Jones news agency. The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1% instead of remaining at 4.2% as forecast.
The USD increased sharply after the above report was published, and bets on a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut at the Fed's November meeting almost disappeared. All of these movements put downward pressure on the price of gold - the asset is priced in USD and does not carry interest.
The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD compared to six other major currencies, increased nearly 0.5%, closing Friday at 102.49 points, the highest since mid-August.
This week, the Dollar Index increased by 2.1% due to a sharp drop in expectations for a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut by the Fed, not to mention the need to hedge against Middle East geopolitical risks, which encouraged investors to buy the currency. greenbacks and US treasury bonds. In the past month, the index has increased nearly 1.3% - according to data from MarketWatch.
