XAUUSD This makes all the difference between bearish and bullishGold has taken a pause on October's enormous rise that was backed by the geopolitical tension in Israel, and formed a Bullish Flag pattern.
The whole pattern from October's low until now looks very much like March 2023.
A Bullish Megaphone with Higher Lows to buy and Higher Highs to sell, led the market to the eventual 2080 peak.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the (1d) candle closes under Resistance (1).
2. Buy if it closes over it.
Targets:
1. 1955 (Rising Support of a symmetrical to March Bullish Megaphone and over MA50 (1d)).
2. 2049 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) got overbought and pulled back. The last two times it did a similar structure was on March 17th and January 13rd. The former extended the rise while the latter had a strong decline to the 1805 level that formed Support (1).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
GC1! (Gold Futures)
XAUUSD Channel Up into Head and Shoulders? Which will prevail?Gold (XAUUSD) is heading into today's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report trading on a Head and Shoulders (H&S) within a Channel Up pattern. Even though the volatility will be great coming into the report, we should trade this on a candle closing approach.
A 4H candle closing above the 1993.50 Symmetrical Resistance, will be a bullish signal, targeting 2020, which will be a typical +2.70% rise as the previous two bullish legs of the Channel Up.
A 4H candle closing below the 1970 neckline and more importantly the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), will be a bearish signal for us and we will target the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 1930.
Note that the 4H MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. However the previous one on October 27 failed to turn the trend bullish and instead formed the (so far) top of the Channel Up.
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XAUUSD Best and worst case scenarios but both are bearish.Gold / XAUUSD is about to form a Bearish Cross on the 1day RSI.
All previous 1day RSI Bearish Cross formations in the last 12 months have either pulled back near the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels.
With the market showing clear signs of exhaustion from the overbought valuation that is caused by the Israel-Palestine war, we have most likely seen the short term top and a correction is much needed technically.
Sell now and target at least 1935, which besides the 0.382 Fibonacci, will test the 1day MA50.
Previous chart:
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The road higher will be bumpyWhile bullish in the long term, we are still awaiting further pullback in the price of gold after its impressive run above $2,000. Right now, we are paying close attention to support and resistance levels near $2,009, $1,985, and $1,959. If the price of gold manages to hold above $1,985, it will be positive; the same applies to the breakout above $2,000 and resistance near $2,009. However, if the price fails to stay above the mentioned level, and we see more decline in RSI and Stochastic on the daily chart, it will alert us to more downside; in such a case, we would expect gold to drop below $1,960 (and maybe even to as low as $1,925). Yet, regardless of our opinions, it is important to note that there is a FOMC meeting scheduled for today, which can have a volatile impact (to either side) on the price depending on the FED’s decision and the chairman's tone during the press conference.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from particular peaks and troughs.
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows the daily chart of RSI. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover below 70 points, which raises our suspicion (though it still could be just a fakeout).
Technical analysis
Daily = Bullish
Weekly = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XAUUSD Megaphone bottom buy but sell if it breaks.Gold is trading on a Rising Megaphone inside a Channel Up, both powerful bullish patterns.
All 3 Lows prior have been priced under the MA50 (1h) and on the Rising Support.
The MA200 (1h) has been supporting all the way back since the October 8th breakout due to the war.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the price crosses under the MA50 (1h).
2. Sell if it crosses under the MA200 (1h).
Targets:
1. 2030 (Rising Resistance).
2. 1955 (slighty over Support 1, which is the level that showed the strongest buying strength recently).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) has its own Buy Zone to consider where the Megaphone bottoms where priced.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
XAUUSD: Bullish inside Channel Up. Bearish under it.Gold turned again marginally overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 70.196, MACD = 25.640, ADX = 45.356) as it managed to stay supported inside the Channel Up pattern of October, over the 4H MA50 as well. Even though Gold's price action this past month took many traders by surprise, its price action is really that simple, a technical Channel Up, which keeps the trend bullish inside it (TP = 2,055) targeting the 3.5 Fibonacci extension (like the October 13th HH) or if it crosses under the 4H MA50, bearish targeting the 4h MA200 and 0.5 Fibonacci global retracement level (TP = 1,922.50).
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XAUUSD High chances for a short-term pull-back.Gold (XAUUSD) is having an remarkable 3 week rally after a technically flawless hit-and-rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) on the week of October 02. Obviously, this rally has been stretched by the geopolitical unrest in Middle East and isn't purely technical on its full range, but besides the small fundamental correction we should see once peace is restored, there are a few important conclusions we can make from similar technical situations in the recent past.
For the past +3 years (since the August 2020 High), Gold has seen another 6 similar rallies (+10.53% to +14.12%). Of those 6 only 2 formed a 1W MACD Bullish Cross, such as the rally we are currently at. Even the 3 rallies after the September 26 2022 bottom that were on an uptrend, delivered short-term corrections to at lest the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This time the 0.382 Fibonacci level is marginally below 1940 and can be your target.
If the current rally is indeed the start of a new multi-month bullish sequence to new All Time Highs (ATH), then a hit-and-rebound at 1940 would be ideal technically, as it will test successfully the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the standard Support level during long-term uptrends.
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GOLD : Here is where YOU BUY , technical & fundamental analysisi am still very bullish biased towards gold i believe you should not be looking for anykind of selling trades right now since you are against a strong trend. but the day we hear a cease fire situation you should forget all of this and look for sells.
Bullish on Gold FuturesHello everyone,
After breaking an important psychological level, and optimism of bonds higher, Gold seems poised for stability at current levels and may continue higher.
Being a classic 'safe haven' Investment, it's not surprising that currently investors will be looking to Gold.
Plenty of room for Intra-Day Traders to do well right now.
Happy Trading!
gold 4hour = if last high break, gold will go upper I think gold is sell now , see daily chart AC indicator , it is red = down trend will come if high not break
if you have open sell , 100% put SL or hedge buystop on high ( if buystop never close it, gold main trend is up, if you close it and gold go upper,you will 0.00 ...)
my orders = I have sell (I open after pinbar with SL in pinbar high + buystop in last high + I will buy gold in 2 place 1925 after buy pinbar
I want you win,profit
GOLD 2 POSSIBLE BULLISH TRADESHello traders here are 2 scenarios that i will be watching for tomorrow
the bias for gold is still bullish due to middle east situation , and the trend is bullish so you should be looking for buys.
the question is where ? : zone 1 Trendline + green area we might see a bullish continuation from there .
zone 2 : the golden zone which is also a key level that turned from resistance to support (Most Trusted then zone 1 )
other bullish clues : Daily candle closed as A Hammer .
the news tommorow can effect the situation stay vigilant
XAUUSD Channel Down on (1h). Sell.Gold has converted the formerly strong Support, MA50 (1h), to a Resistance and a Channel Down has emerged.
Today it priced first the Lower Low and now the Lower High.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy if the price crosses over Resistance (1).
Targets:
1. 1950 (Lower Low on a -1.39% decline, like the previous sell leg).
2. 1997.30 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is reversing right where the Resistance that priced the previous Lower High was. An additional bearish signal.
2. 1950 is on the path of the MA200 (1h). An important support test for the long term.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Gold's safe-haven behaviorIn the previous idea about gold, we expressed skepticism for overly bullish prospects in the short term (in the long term, we stay bullish). The main idea behind that is gold often reacts (initially) positively to geopolitical tensions, stock market weakness, or any type of disruptive event. Nevertheless, even if persistent, these events (or disruptions) eventually start to be priced in and ignored by market participants. Depending on many external factors, the periods of an initial positive reaction vary in length and strength. Below are charts illustrating this relationship between gold and SPX.
Illustration 1.01 - 2021 market peak
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The orange line represents the S&P 500 Index. It can be observed that in late 2021 when SPX started to fall, gold reacted positively at first. However, this positive reaction lasted only for about two months. After that, gold started to follow the stock market to the downside.
Illustration 1.02 - COVID-19 stock market crash
The image above displays the daily chart of XAUUSD. The orange line represents the S&P 500 Index. Again, gold can be seen rising in an initial reaction to the COVID-19 stock market crash but falling later.
Illustration 1.03 - 2007/2008 crisis
Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). After the stock market peaked in 2007, gold continued to rise. In fact, it managed to go on an approximately 200-day rally before finally reversing to the downside (this is one of the strongest positive reactions in gold to the weakness in stocks).
Illustration 1.04 - 1987 crash (Black Monday)
Illustration 1.04 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). In response to the 1987 crash, gold rose for 111 days. Interestingly, its peak coincided with the stock market's bottom.
Illustration 1.05 - 2010 flash-crash
Above is the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). During the May 2010 selloff, gold reacted positively to the weakness in stocks at first. Then, it erased nearly all of its gains, rebounded again, and erased gains for the second time.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bullish
Weekly = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XAUUSD Channel Up still holdingGold / XAUUSD is trading inside a Channel Up since the October 6th Low and the start of this fast and strong rise.
It has been having symmetric pull backs of -1.25% to -1.70% and appears to have completed the latest.
As lng as the 1964 Low holds, buy and target 2020 (+2.95% rise, same as the last two).
If it crosses under 1964, sell and target 1940 (1day MA50).
Previous chart:
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XAUUSD: Excellent opportunity to buy the dip this week.Gold is on a fierce rally since the October 6th bottom that has turned the 1D technical outlook overbought (RSI = 71.518, MACD = 17.530, ADX = 38.679). The price crossed over the Fibonacci 0.618 level but Friday's 1D candle closed downwards leaving a big wick above (but still closed green). We may see a Triangle consolidation much like March 20th-April 3rd before a higher price, allowing the 1D RSI to drop under 60.000 again the the 1D MA50 to approach within supporting distance.
Technically, the whole pattern since September 20th-now, is indentical with February 2nd-March 20th, as their highs and lows are on symmetric levels. Consequently, this week's pullback can be an excellent opportunity to buy the dip and target the candle body high of May 4th, the All Time High (TP = 2,050).
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XAUUSD Is this rally coming to an end?Two weeks ago (October 07) we called for a new Bullish move (see chart below) on Gold (XAUUSD) as the price hit the 1W MA200 and held it
The sheer force behind this bullish move has surpassed all technical expectations as it is also fundamentally driven by the Middle East tension. Gold acts as a safe haven in times of market uncertainty. In any case, the rally broke today above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (from the ATH) and entered the 5-month Resistance Zone that is in place since May 18 and has 10 rejections under its belt.
The 1D RSI broken yesterday into the +70.00 overbought territory so a technical pull-back isn't at all unrealistic now. It all depends on the 1D candle closing (which will also be the weekly closing). If the candle closes below 1979 (0.618 Fibonacci), it will be an early bearish signal. The target of the first correction of the previous similar bullish leg in March was the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). As a result, if the candle makes that closing, we are willing to take the risk and target the 4H MA50/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support cluster at 1935.
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The Gold Odyssey - Breaking out of top consolidation finallyIF you had been following the series of The Gold Odyssey, you would know how well the probabilities are in the analyses.
To the point, Gold is ready to break its almost three year consolidation (huge) range.
1. You can see the powerful reversal off the mid-range support;
2. The candles show and project good momentum to follow through;
3. A trend line breakout already just happened with the week not closed yet; and
4. MACD and VolDiv are only starting to align for a good bullish breakout.
Incoming!!!!
GOLD → Strong zone retest. Bounce before further growth OANDA:XAUUSD is breaking out and is about to test a key area of liquidity at the moment. What can we expect to see from gold going forward?
On the chart I have marked such important levels as 1953 and 1946.7. This is a rather strong resistance area forming a global sideways range. After a long retest, the price is highly likely to fail to break this level the first time and may form a correction to the support. But in the near term, based on fundamental factors and market sentiment, we can assume that the growth will continue after the pullback. In the medium term, the price may test the 2000 area, but we are interested in cheaper zones to start with.
Moving averages support the bullish trend.
Support levels: 1928
Resistance levels: 1946, 1953
Since we have a strong trend + distribution, this movement may continue, but after the retest of the mentioned resistance area. We will follow the price reaction to the area to make further conclusions
COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Overbought, requires a technical relief.Gold is trading inside a Channel Up since the strong rebound on the MA200 (1w).
The MA100 (1h) has been basically supporting since its beginning and even though Resistance (1) broke, the sideways trading on the RSI (1h) hits to a possible short term pull back.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1920 (MA100 1h and bottom of Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is inside a Triangle pattern. The direction to which that breaks, can be an indication of the next trend on the 4h time frame.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
🥇 GOLD - Growth will continue after the breakout of 1929On the senior timeframe we see a stop after a strong distribution. This may last until the price breaks the resistance of 1929. At this point, consolidation and a retest of resistance is forming
TA on the high timeframe:
1) The bullish trend is strong
2) The area of 1929-1932 stops us from further growth.
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Price is consolidating. Growth is formed from the support 1913
2) Retest of resistance can be accompanied by both rebound and breakout.
3) The signal for a rebound will be a false breakout, and the signal for further growth will be a breakout and consolidation above 1929.
Key resistance 📈 1929
Key support 📉 1914