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GC1! (Gold Futures)

GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 04 - March 08]This week, international gold prices rose sharply from 2,024 USD/oz to 2,088 USD/oz and closed at 2,083 USD/oz. The increase is attributed to seasonal factors and the expectation that the FED will cut interest rates soon. Next week, two factors that could significantly affect gold prices are the testimony of FED Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and the release of the US February nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. US NFP in February is forecasted to reach 190,000 jobs, a decrease from the previous period's 353,000 jobs. High interest rates have hindered business expansion and caused a reduction in operations. This may prompt the FED to consider cutting interest rates to support the labor market and the US economy, which could lead to higher gold prices. Conversely, if NFP exceeds expectations, the FED may delay interest rate cuts, potentially affecting gold prices negatively.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Gold Challenges New High - Expecting More Upside Inflation was only keenly felt, especially after the pandemic in April 2021, when the CPI broke above 2% to 4.15%, and then quickly soared to a high of 9% in June 2022. However, gold has been signaling impending inflation since the year 2000, which was 24 years ago. Currently, gold is also indicating further upside potential over the long term. What will be the implications for inflation and ultimately interest rates down the road? Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!
by konhow
1
GOLD jumped to nearly 2,100 USD/ozWorld gold price stood at 2,082 USD/ounce, up sharply to 38 USD/ounce compared to the same hour yesterday morning. This is the highest price of this precious metal in more than 2 months. The increase in gold prices comes from the market receiving information about gloomy US economic data. This contributes to strengthening investors' expectations about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) loosening monetary policy. Gold is on an upward trend because the market believes that the Fed will loosen monetary policy in the middle of this year, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold bars. In 3-4 months, prices will hit a record if we continue to see weak economic data and the market believes the Fed is ready to cut interest rates. Strong central bank buying is also supporting the market. Major economies in the world simultaneously announced less positive economic data. This also supports gold prices to increase in the coming sessions. However, experts warn that this week's gold speculative position is expected to only move sideways compared to before, so it is possible that gold will be sold off as early as next week as investors take profits. Therefore, investors should carefully observe the market to determine appropriate buying and selling points.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → Distribution continues. Is the target of 2150 relevant?FX:XAUUSD strengthens to 2120 and forms a new local consolidation within the distribution after coming out of a prolonged consolidation. Should we wait for further growth? The price has entered an empty range of 2085 - 2150, within which there is no resistance, which suggests that the price can reach ATH - 2145-2150 quite easily and quickly. Consolidation, from which the price recently came out, lasted for 3 months, which allowed the market to accumulate a huge potential. The realization of such potential may take 20-40% of the duration of this consolidation. But, it is not about the distribution, but about the whole upward movement. Gold continues to form a global bullish trend. Consolidation is forming on H4. Breakout and consolidation of the price above 2020 will form the potential for further growth to the maximum. Resistance levels: 2120, 2145, 2150 Support levels: 2110, 2100 I expect growth to continue within the realized distribution phase, as the market has not yet reached its target. Local corrections, traps are possible, but the target may be reached in the near future TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
14
GOLD → Distribution phase. When do we reach 2150?FX:XAUUSD is moving out of range. A distribution is being formed. During the trading week the price strengthens by 2.5%, and the closing of the price on Friday gives us prerequisites for further movement As part of the outlook, gold has quite an interesting path ahead. Interest in the metal is increasing, especially within the framework of the unstable 2023 and early 2024. All of last week was favorable for gold as the US market pulsed with negative economic data. This contributed to the end of the consolidation and the beginning of the distribution. US regulators are not doing a very good job. Inflation is still high, jobless claims are rising, GDP is falling. But what they are confidently doing well is keeping interest rates flat for extended periods of time. lol Prolonged consolidation is getting a denouement. Price is moving out of the triangle upward, breaking the range resistance. And the prerequisite for the resistance breakout was volume growth and consolidation formation near the upper boundary of the range. Since we see the distribution on the background of volume growth, and the closing of the daily candle on Friday indicates that the movement is not over, we can assume that the breakout of 2084 will provoke the continuation of growth to 2090, 2100 and further to 2150 - ATH. Based on the general situation at the moment, we can distinguish two highly probable scenarios. Since the market is bullish, as evidenced by the previously mentioned facts, we can conclude from the current assumptions: resistance breakout, realization phase, distribution, Friday candle closing, growing volume, that we should look for further growth. Scenario 1 : Consolidation between 2087 and 2078 followed by a squeeze to 2087, breakout and rise to 2100 and 2125 Scenario 2 : Correction to 2078, to Fibo 0.236. False breakout, return to the range of 2087 - 2078. Breakout of resistance and growth to ATH Resistance levels: 2082, 2087 Support levels: 2078, 0.236 fibo, 0.382 fibo COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! TVC:GOLD TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18
GOLD fundamentals and technicals are unevenGold prices (XAU/USD) climbed on Thursday, pushing past the $2,040 threshold and reaching their highest level since early February at one point during the trading session, although gains seemed to be capped by a strengthening U.S. dollar. The precious metal’s positive performance was fueled, in part, by falling U.S. Treasury yields, which reacted to an in-line economic report. Specifically, January's core PCE deflator clocked in at 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y, just as projected. Investors, rattled by the recent CPI and PPI data, braced for further inflation pain, but were relieved when the Federal Reserve’s favored price gauge landed precisely on its expected mark. This gave gold bulls an excuse to reengage long positions. Looking ahead, traders should not be taken aback if Thursday's rally proves to be short-lived. When markets come to terms with the fact that sluggish progress on disinflation and looser financial conditions could prompt the Fed to delay the start of its easing cycle, bullion may face renewed downward pressure. OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Focusing on gold’s outlook, technicals and fundamental analysis are currently at odds. That said, Thursday's bullish breakout, which saw XAU/USD push past trendline resistance and the 50-day simple moving average at $2,035, is clearly a positive sign. Should this move be sustained, a rally towards $2,065 may be on the horizon. Above this area, all eyes will be on $2,090. On the contrary, if sellers return and spark a bearish reversal below $2,035, sentiment toward the yellow metal could quickly sour. Under these circumstances, bears may gain confidence to mount an assault on the 100-day simple moving average, located around $2,010/$2,005. Further declines below this support zone could pave the way for a retreat towards $1,990.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
🥇 GOLD - Consolidation before growth. Next ATHGold is holding fairly steady in the flat 2080 - 2090 after a strong rise that started back at the end of last week. Interest in the metal is quite high, which has recently increased investment in the metal as a safe-haven asset. The bullish trend may continue after the false breakdown of the nearest support, as well as after the breakdown of 2090. Reasons for further growth: 1) Strong trend. The market is growing on accumulated liquidity 2) Gold interest on the background of weak dollar is growing 3) There is no fall from 2088. 4) Consolidation is formed, in the format of a "flag". Growth may continue
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AndeWave
5
XAUUSD Break-out to $2200 or pull-back $2030?Gold (XAUUSD) is rising and has gotten very close to the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started in November 2023. As long as it gets rejected within the pattern, it is a sell opportunity targeting $2030, which is above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone and near the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. The 1D MACD appears to be in a similar sequence as on July 20 2023, which initiated a strong sell towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the other hand, if Gold breaks and closes above the Channel Up, we will not hesitate to take the loss on the sell and open a buy, as it will have stronger probabilities of imitating the December 04 2023 bullish break-out, which completed a +11.37% rise before correcting as well to the 0.786 Fib and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As a result in that case, our target will be $2200, which would represent a +11.00% rise from the February 14 Low. In fact, +11% rallies have been common in the past 12 months for Gold, delivering 3 such occasions. Each one has corrected to an MA period and the one that has been untouched for longer is the 1D MA200, which by the time of a correction will be very close to the bottom of the Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
GOLD → Re-test 2085. The distribution is not yet finalized FX:XAUUSD is testing the maximum. After a long consolidation, a distribution phase is formed, which leads to a false breakdown of the intermediate resistance level. What should we wait for next, decline or growth? The distribution phase is clearly demonstrated on the background of volume growth. The price is testing the intermediate level of 2084.5 and forms a false breakdown. The value of the level is big enough, but not enough to turn the market. The 2084 area continues to hold the price, but based on the data on the H1 chart we can assume that gold will test this resistance with the aim of breaking through it, as the distribution phase is not over yet. If the compression to the upper boundary of the consolidation on H1 continues, namely to Friday's high, a breakout and further growth to the next intermediate targets may happen with a high probability. Support levels: 2079,5, 2069.9, 2065 Resistance levels: 2088.4, 2100 The growth is not over, as the realization of the accumulated potential inside the consolidation is not exhausted yet. There is a possibility of correction, but at the break of 2079.5. But still, I stick to the break of resistance and further growth TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
11
Mar 4th 2024 GC Update - Potentially a start of something bigAnother share from the TTR, this time is a commodity chart - #GC Beautiful move up on Friday! The price has stopped right at the trendline support; there is one more resistance box above it. When/If it is broken, we will see the next trendline tested again, followed by a breakout box. This is a very bullish action as if the price continues to break out, then expect some geopolitical issues to come next, which means the markets could be near its maj top!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by TheTradersRoom
GOLD competing against US PCE dataThe U.S. dollar edged higher today, but displayed measured strength amid subdued U.S. Treasury yields. A sense of caution permeated markets as traders anxiously awaited the looming release of the core PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This economic report can greatly influence the central bank’s monetary policy outlook so it could bring volatility in the days ahead. Forecasts suggest that January's core CPI rose 0.4% m-o-m, resulting in a slight deceleration in the yearly print from 2.9% to 2.8%, a baby step in the right direction. In any case, the substantially higher-than-anticipated CPI and PPI readings for the same period underscore a key point: investors may be underestimating inflation risks, leaving them vulnerable to an upside surprise in tomorrow’s data. A hot PCE report indicating minimal progress on disinflation may prompt Wall Street to scale back bets on the number of rate cuts envisioned for 2024, while increasing the odds of the FOMC delaying its easing cycle to the second half of the year. A hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations should exert upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, boosting the U.S. dollar but weighing on gold prices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OANDA:XAUUSD Gold rose on Wednesday but encountered resistance around the $2,035 mark, a key technical roadblock where a downtrend line converges with the 50-day simple moving average. Sellers need to firmly protect this ceiling to thwart bullish momentum; any lapse could trigger an upward surge towards $2,065. Alternatively, if sentiment shifts back in favor of sellers and XAU/USD takes a turn to the downside, the first key floor to watch emerges at $2,005, near the 100-day simple moving average. Should selling pressure continue, traders may eye $1,990, followed by $1,995 as potential support levels.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD increased despite reduced volatility due to falling dollarWorld gold price stood at 2,032 USD/ounce, equivalent to the price at the same time yesterday morning. Gold prices increased slightly and then decreased when the market received mixed economic information. Specifically, negative information comes from the Conference Board survey results published on February 27 showing that the US consumer confidence index decreased in February to 106.7, down from 110. 90 revised down in January. Consumer optimism fell more than expected as economists forecast 114.8. In particular, the expectations index decreased to 79.8 from 81.5. “An expectation index below 80 typically signals an impending recession,” the report said. On the contrary, the positive data is that the February production index in the US increased from negative 15 points last month to negative 5 points this month and higher than the negative 9 points previously forecast. The US house price index in December decreased from 6.7% to 6.6%. When consumer confidence declines, it will affect the consumption of goods, as well as production. The sharp increase in the manufacturing index shows that the US economy is still recovering positively. Falling house prices will impact the consumer price index as well. This affects the interest rate policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Economic data is mixed, so investors are still cautious in trading.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
XAUUSD Approaching the top of the Channel Up.Gold / XAUUSD has had the strongest 1D green candle today since December 13 2023 and is approaching the top of the 3 month Channel Up. That is a sell opportunity especially with the 1D RSI entering the overbought region. That has formed the Highs of October 27th and December 1st 2023, which declined by -4.03% and -4.93% respectively. The maximum decline inside this Channel Up has been -4.99% (February 14th 2024), which tested the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Sell and target 2020 and if you want more risk, 2000, which is under the 0.786 Fib and at the bottom of the Channel Up. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by TheCryptagon
1
GOLD → Retest of 2050. Can the price go even higher?FX:XAUUSD is breaking through strong resistance and testing the 2050 area, favorably influenced by the fundamental background from Thursday. The market is trying to move into a bullish phase, but globally the price is held back by a huge sideways flat. Idea from 29.02: GOLD → Consolidation is narrowing. The calm before the storm On H4 we see the price trying to form a consolidation above the previously broken trend lines of resistance. Support at 2041 is now playing an important role. Since the opening of the session on Friday, gold tested this area with a false breakdown, after which a bullish impulse was formed and XAU is already testing the resistance 2048. Img: Current situation: resistance breakout on H4 A break of this area will confirm the price going beyond the correction, which may help the upside to 2057-2060. But, a correction from 2048 is possible before a further rise to the above targets, and we should also pay attention to today's news. It is necessary to watch the price reaction to this zone. Resistance Levels: 2047.8 - 2049, 2057 Support levels: 2044, 2041 I expect the growth to continue, because both technically and fundamentally, the market is pointing to it now. But, there may be a fall in the price if the structure of 2044-2041 is broken. In this case, the price may head towards the channel support TVC:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
20
GOLD → Consolidation is narrowing. The calm before the storm FX:XAUUSD is holding strong, yesterday's economic news also supported the price. The price of metal forms numerous retests of resistance, as well as forms a pre-breakdown consolidation. The complexity of the situation is that we have a very narrow range and within this range the market maker will gain liquidity by any means, but sometimes there are prerequisites that do not guarantee, but hint at a possible movement in one direction or another. Numerous retests of resistance and absence of fall after false breakdown of resistance with the subsequent return to the test and formation of pre-breakdown consolidation tell us that the market is ready for growth. But! Today is the news! Be careful! A break of resistance and the level of 2037.1 will form a phase of realization, in this case the price can realize the impulse to 2044-2048. But, if the price falls and breaks 2031, the overall structure will be broken. Resistance levels: 2037.1, trend resistance Support levels: 2034, 2031 Strong consolidation is forming on H4. Breakout of one of the boundaries will form a strong impulse. Now there are prerequisites for the breakout of resistance, it will happen only if there is a signal for the breakout and further confirmation. We continue to wait TVC:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
25
GOLD increased by weak USD and tensions in the Middle EastWorld gold prices increased with spot gold increasing by 10.7 USD to 2,034.9 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,045.5 USD/ounce, up 14.5 USD compared to yesterday morning. After a series of stable days, world gold increased on Friday thanks to the weakening of the USD and increased safe-haven buying due to concerns related to developments in the Middle East. The US Dollar Index recorded its first weekly decline in nearly two months, making bullion priced in greenbacks cheaper for overseas buyers. Gold's recovery in the last trading session of this week was mainly due to the weakness of the greenback. Safe-haven buying also provided a boost to precious metals. However, gold's rise in recent times has been restrained by hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. On Thursday this week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized that there will be "no rush" to make a decision to cut interest rates. This has reinforced investors' confidence that the US will delay loosening monetary policy until June. In the minutes of the first policy meeting of 2024, most Fed policymakers expressed concern about the risks of cutting interest rates too soon. Recent data showing higher-than-expected U.S. producer and consumer prices also dashed speculation of an early interest rate cut and that added pressure on bullion.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD likely to increase prices sharplyClosing the weekend trading session, world gold price stood at 2,035 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 22 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session. For the whole week, gold prices increased by 1.4%. The bulk of gold's gains came on Friday as the precious metal was boosted by safe-haven demand and weakness in the greenback. In the context that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to maintain its interest rate stance, most opinions believe that the gold market is expected to still face risks. However, gold may benefit when the US Central Bank delays loosening monetary policy. The longer the central bank delays, the greater the risk of policy mistakes. Although gold has struggled since the beginning of the year, this expert is still impressed by the strength of this precious metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD price struggles for directionWith all the excitement this week for the US stock market, and Nvidia in particular, gold has been left on the sidelines waiting for a macro boost. Next week's economic calendar has a host of potential movers with next Wednesday's US Q4 GDP and Thursday's core PCE release the two most likely candidates for a boost. price action. In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has been discussing the need to curb excessive optimism regarding interest rate cuts. Initially, the markets predicted around 170 basis points of rate cuts for this year, starting in March. The Fed's plan for three cuts, beginning in the second half of the year, was initially seen as insufficient. However, their persistence and positive data releases have aligned market expectations. Currently, the market predicts a total of 83 basis points in cuts, with the first cut fully priced in for the July 31st meeting. This paring of cut expectations has weighed slightly on gold, capping further upside. Gold has lost around $100/oz. this year and the weekly chart shows a negative trend still in play. A break below $1,984/oz. is needed to keep this trend in place. A break above $2,044/oz. brings $2,070/oz. back into focus.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD Long Idea-This week I've had an overall bullish bias for Gold to head to the PWH after we put in a fractal swing low on the weekly, confluence with wicking below several weekly lows. -Although today's Daily candle close isn't super strong, I'm still leaning towards looking for longs. -Daily candle rejected from the Daily +OB again, and also failed to displace and close below Tuesdays Low. -I am targeting Wednesdays high, and the PWW. -I want to see H4/H1 discount arrays being respected, followed by a displacement entry confirmation on M15/M5.
COMEX:GCJ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
GOLD confluent resistance stops the uptrendGold prices lost ground on Monday following a strong performance last Friday, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields - a situation that generally diminishes the appeal of the non-interest-bearing asset relative to fixed-income securities. In this context, XAU/USD finished the session around $2,030, slightly below a confluence resistance zone near $2,035. Many investors appeared to adopt a wait-and-see approach on the precious metal at the start of the new week, refraining from making large directional bets for fear of being caught on the wrong side of the trade. This cautious sentiment was likely attributed to an important event on the U.S. economic calendar on Thursday: the release of the core PCE deflator, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Forecasts suggest January's core PCE increased 0.4% month-over-month, resulting in a slight deceleration of the annual reading from 2.9% to 2.8%. However, traders should brace for the possibility of an upside surprise in the data, echoing the trends observed in the CPI and PPI surveys disclosed earlier this month. This could inject volatility into financial markets.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD: LH on the Channel Down formed.Gold has reached the top of the 4H Channel Down pattern, while the 4H MA50 and the 4H MA200 just formed a Golden Cross. Despite that, and as long as the 1D technical outlook isn't bullish (RSI = 54.450, MACD = -0.200, ADX = 28.783) but more importantly the price is inside the Channel Down, the sentiment remains bearish. The 4H RSI is on the same kind of Bearish Divergence as it was on all prior LH tops, which prompts to the strongest sell signal possible on the medium-term aimed at the S2 level (TP = 1,975), potentially a -3.95% decline as the last LL. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by InvestingScope
5