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GC1! (Gold Futures)

Ready for a new trading week with CPI data in focusOANDA:XAUUSD closed slightly down last week, but a recovery over the past two trading days has helped gold prices narrow their losses this week. Investors will receive US CPI and retail sales data next week, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. In addition, developments in the Middle East are also the focus of investors' attention. Yesterday's US unemployment claims data eased fears of a recession and boosted gold prices. Additionally, Federal Reserve commentary this week also supports the view that an interest rate cut may be imminent. After a volatile week, traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in an unusually aggressive way have also weakened. Globally, risk appetite also gradually recovered as the week progressed, tempered by demand for gold, considered a top safe-haven asset. However, Fed policymakers are increasingly confident that inflation has cooled enough to allow interest rate cuts. They will decide the size and timing of interest rate cuts based on economic data rather than stock market turmoil. A big storm is coming, the US CPI will be announced this week as the market focus This week's economic calendar will release US inflation data for July. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month in July, while core CPI , excluding fluctuating food and energy prices, will also increase 0.2% month-on-month. On an annual basis, the headline CPI inflation rate is expected to moderate to 2.9% from 3% in June. If CPI rises higher than expected compared to last month, investors can reassess the possibility of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September and help the Dollar strengthen and of course this will be the immediate reaction. immediately because it is expected to decrease. On the other hand, if the data meets or misses market expectations, it could put pressure on the US Dollar, opening the door for another bullish wave for gold. On Thursday, the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for July. US retail sales are expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month in July after flat change in June. Significant growth in retail sales could ease fears of a US recession and weigh on gold by supporting the dollar, while negative data would have the opposite effect. CME's "Fed Watch Tool" shows that the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September to be 49%. It is also important to note that in addition to economic data being the focus of attention, readers, investors, and traders also need to pay attention to geopolitical developments. In the current context, focus should be on the situation in the Middle East as signs of escalation continuously appear in the market. Information will be updated with readers through short comments or daily publications. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After receiving support from the key technical area for the uptrend that readers noticed throughout the publication over the past week, the confluence area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, the lower edge of the price channel and the The $2,378 technical has pushed gold to achieve its near-term upside target at $2,437. Temporarily, gold's upside momentum is limited at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, price point of $2,437, but it has also achieved full bullish conditions. With the closest support currently noticed by the EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, as long as gold remains above the EMA21 the near-term bullish outlook prevails. On the other hand, once gold breaks $2,437 it will continue towards an all-time high with no significant technical resistance beyond this level ahead. All technical and fundamental conditions are supportive of price increases, so cases expecting a correction should be opened with very short-term positions. This week's market is expected to have more complex fluctuations from macro data, and the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price points. Support: 2,408 – 2,400USD Resistance: 2,437 – 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2443 - 2441 ⚰️SL: 2447 ⬆️TP1: 2436 ⬆️TP2: 2431 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2404 - 2406 ⚰️SL: 2400 ⬆️TP1: 2411 ⬆️TP2: 2416
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → The bulls kept the market from falling. Emphasis on 2431FX:XAUUSD is working out the range support and realizing the potential of the pattern "symmetrical triangle" in a bullish direction. On H1-H4 the market is in a sideways range, locally we are dealing with a bullish trend. There is no news today. Technically, a bullish market is developing. Global trend is upward, local trend is neutral with bullish prerequisites. The price is squeezed between the resistance at 2431, which is the key resistance. A breakdown and consolidation above this zone will open a huge potential for the market. On H1, consolidation is forming above the support at 2418, a retest and liquidity capture is possible before further growth, as the bullish potential (locally) is not exhausted yet and the upward movement can be continued, but after a small correction. The market is perfectly working the lower boundary of the range 2369 and now considers the upper boundary 2477 as a potential.... Resistance Levels: 2431 Support levels: 2418, 2407, 2402 Emphasis on these levels. Most likely MM may test the support before the subsequent rise. But the primary retest of 2431 may give a small correction before the breakout and impulse to the mentioned targets. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
10
GOLD at a Tipping Point: Rally or Reversal?Comprehensive Analysis of XAU/USD (Gold vs. U.S. Dollar) Across the 1-hour, 15-minute, and 4-hour charts, the current market structure of Gold against the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) reveals a critical juncture, with several key technical patterns and liquidity zones influencing potential price movements. --- 1. Overall Market Structure: Large Ascending Channel (4-Hour Chart) - Channel Formation: The price has been trending within a **large Ascending Channel** since early May, with well-defined higher highs and higher lows. This channel serves as the primary structure guiding the market’s long-term movement. - Upper and Lower Boundaries: The upper boundary near 2474.774 (Daily LQZ) and the lower boundary near 2355.819 (Daily LQZ) are critical levels. The price is currently closer to the channel's upper half, indicating potential room for further upside but also a heightened risk of reversal. 2. Intermediate Market Structure: Recent Ascending Channel Breakdown (1-Hour & 4-Hour Charts) - Smaller Ascending Channel: On the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, a smaller Ascending Channel had formed recently, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. However, this channel experienced a breakdown, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. - Retest and Flag Formation: Following the breakdown, the price formed a flag pattern. This typically signals consolidation before continuation in the direction of the previous trend (which was down, post-breakdown). The resolution of this flag is crucial for the next significant move. --- 3. Liquidity Zones (LQZs): Key Decision Points - 1-Hour LQZ at 2441.637: A significant resistance level that the price is currently hovering near. Its strength has been tested, and it could either cap the current move or be breached if buying pressure increases. - 4-Hour LQZ at 2458.954: Positioned slightly above the current price, this is another critical resistance zone, closely aligned with the broader channel's upper resistance area. - Daily LQZ at 2474.774: This is a major resistance level that coincides with the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel. If reached, it could signal an important inflection point. - Support at 2402.417 (1HR) and 2355.819 (Daily): These are key levels of support that could come into play if the price fails to break higher and instead moves downward. --- 4. Volume Analysis: Gauging Momentum** - Recent Volume Trends: Across the charts, volume has shown signs of moderation, particularly during the formation of the flag pattern. This suggests a potential lack of conviction among market participants, which could lead to a volatile breakout or breakdown. - Volume at Key Levels: It will be essential to monitor volume closely at critical LQZs and the flag pattern boundaries. A breakout with strong volume could confirm the direction, while a low-volume move might indicate a false breakout or temporary move. --- 5. Mass Psychology and Market Sentiment - Herd Behavior: The market is at a psychological tipping point. If a breakout from the flag pattern occurs, it could trigger a strong collective buying response, driving the price higher toward the 4HR and Daily LQZs. Conversely, a failure could lead to a rapid sell-off as participants rush to exit. - Overextension and Exhaustion: The proximity to significant resistance levels increases the risk of overextension. If the price approaches the Daily LQZ at 2474.774, traders should be cautious of a potential reversal due to exhaustion of the bullish trend. --- 6. Potential Scenarios and Strategic Considerations - Bullish Scenario: - Breakout Above Flag: A confirmed breakout above the flag pattern, supported by strong volume, could push the price towards the 4HR LQZ (2458.954) and potentially the Daily LQZ (2474.774). - Continuation Within the Larger Channel: If the price clears the 4HR LQZ, it could target the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel, aligning with the Daily LQZ at 2474.774. - Bearish Scenario:** - Breakdown from Flag: A breakdown from the flag, especially with increasing volume, could signal a short-term bearish move, targeting support levels at 2402.417 (1HR LQZ) and 2355.819 (Daily LQZ). - Rejection at 1HR LQZ (2441.637): If the price fails to break the 1HR LQZ convincingly, it could lead to a retest of lower support levels, indicating a potential retracement within the larger channel. - Neutral/Baseline Strategy: - Wait for Confirmation: Traders might consider waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown from the flag pattern and observe how the price reacts at the nearest LQZs. This approach reduces the risk of being caught in a false move. - Risk Management: Stops should be placed strategically around the flag pattern’s boundaries or key LQZs to protect against adverse moves. --- Conclusion: The XAU/USD pair is currently at a crucial inflection point. The broader market structure, combined with recent developments in the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, suggests that the next significant move could set the tone for the short to medium term. Close attention should be paid to the flag pattern, volume behavior, and the reaction at key liquidity zones, particularly the 1HR and 4HR LQZs. A breakout could lead to a test of the upper boundaries of the larger channel, while a breakdown might see the price revisiting lower support levels within the channel. This is a classic setup where waiting for confirmation before entering a position could offer a strategic advantage, allowing for more informed and controlled trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Adlercon333
1
Flag Pattern Alert: Gold's Big Decision!Now that the title got your attention! Take some time to fully digest the market breakdown below where we cover this further in depth! 1. Price Structure: - Downtrend: The chart shows a significant downtrend from the left side, leading to a series of lower highs and lower lows, which is a classic bearish structure. - Consolidation/Flag Formation: After a strong bearish move, the price appears to be consolidating within a flag pattern, as indicated by the 15-minute and 1-hour flag formations. This is typically a continuation pattern, suggesting that the market might continue in the direction of the previous trend (downwards). 2. Key Levels: - Daily LQZ (2,474.774): This is a higher time frame liquidity zone. Price is currently below this level, indicating that there might be significant resistance here. - 4HR LQZ (2,459.094): This zone is also above the current price, acting as potential resistance. A move towards this zone might face selling pressure. - 1HR LQZ (2,445.648): This is a closer resistance level, just above the current price action, within the range of the flag pattern. A breakout above the flag might target this LQZ. - 15M LQZ (2,415.863): Price is currently hovering around this level, indicating that the market is at a critical point where it could either bounce or break lower. - 1HR LQZ (2,402.417): If the price breaks down from the current flag, this level could act as the next target/support. 3. Potential Scenarios: - Bullish Scenario (Green Arrow): - Breakout of the Flag: If the price breaks out upwards from the flag formation, it could signal a reversal or a correction within the larger downtrend. - Target Levels: The price might aim for the 1HR LQZ at 2,445.648 first, with potential further movement towards the 4HR LQZ at 2,459.094, and eventually towards the Daily LQZ at 2,474.774 if bullish momentum continues. - Bearish Scenario (Orange Arrow): - Breakdown from the Flag: If the price breaks down from the flag pattern, it would confirm the continuation of the bearish trend. - Target Levels: The immediate target would be the 1HR LQZ at 2,402.417, followed by the next lower Daily LQZ at 2,355.819. 4. Market Phases: - Impulsive and Corrective Phases:The downtrend before the flag can be considered an impulsive phase, while the flag pattern itself represents a corrective phase. Understanding these phases can help anticipate the next move. 5. Lower High Formation: - The chart also marks a “Lower High” within the flag formation. This suggests that the bulls are struggling to push the price higher, which is a bearish signal, reinforcing the likelihood of a breakdown. 6. Volume Analysis: - Volume Support: The volume seems to be lower during the flag formation compared to the preceding downtrend, which is typical in a consolidation phase. A breakout with strong volume would give more validity to the direction. 7. Conclusion: - Bullish Bias: If the price breaks out of the flag with strong momentum and volume, a short-term bullish move towards the higher LQZs can be expected. - Bearish Bias: The overall trend and the formation of a lower high suggest a bearish continuation. If the price breaks down from the flag, the bearish scenario could play out with targets towards the lower LQZs. This breakdown gives you a structured view of the current market conditions on this chart. As always, consider combining this technical analysis with other factors like market sentiment, fundamental analysis, and your risk management strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Adlercon333
GOLD → What is the problem with a SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE ► ?FX:XAUUSD is still trading inside the flat 2420 - 2370 forming a symmetrical triangle. Traders continue to struggle for the area of 2400. News ahead... I understand that you don't like it when there is no clear direction on the chart, but there are nuances here and in some cases you need to have both bullish and bearish scenarios. Let's break it down... On D1 there is a rather encouraging situation indicating how the bulls continue to hold the support of the global trend. The issue of aggressive easing of the US Fed policy is still relevant. Likewise, speculators are closely watching developments around Iran's attack on Israel. If it happens, it is likely to give additional impetus to the growth of gold prices. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims of the USA may provide short-term potential for the markets. Technically, gold is forming a symmetrical triangle on H1. The bearish pressure is still present in the market. Gold is not technical now, but depends on fundamental nuances. Resistance levels: 2400 Support levels: 2380 The problem with a symmetrical triangle is that no one knows where the price will go until the actual exit. Globally we have a bull market, locally there is pressure from the bears. There is a high probability of a breakout of the symmetrical triangle support and a decline to 2364-2351, but if the economic factor has a bullish effect on the market, gold may continue to test 2400 with the goal of a breakout and a rise to 2420. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
6
GOLD is stable with an uptrendEarly in the Asian trading session on August 9, OANDA:XAUUSD slightly down about 5dollars, currently trading at 2,421USD/oz, equivalent to 0.23% on the day. Gold had earlier rallied on Thursday, supported by solid safe-haven demand and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates sharply in September. Spot gold closed trading on Thursday up sharply at 44.51 USD, equivalent to 1.87%, at 2,427.11 USD/ounce, ending the previous 5 consecutive days of decline. Gold has benefited from speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more sharply than previously estimated. This sentiment was reinforced when the latest macroeconomic data showed that the US economy could face a recession, sparking speculation that interest rates could be cut. 3 times before the end of this year. According to data from CME's "FedWatch" tool, the market sees a 56.5% chance that interest rates will decrease by 50 basis points in September, with a further cut expected in December. Meanwhile, there is about a 43.5% chance that interest rates will be cut by 50 basis points in September. % chance that the Fed will cut 25 basis points. Big news about attacks on Israel Gold's appeal is supported by geopolitical risks that Iran and Lebanon could retaliate against Israel. The latest developments in the Middle East increase geopolitical risks. While market sentiment remains positive, there are concerns about impending retaliation by Iran and Lebanon against Israel. On August 8 local time, Hezbollah in Lebanon announced that it had used Katyusha rockets, heavy artillery shells and guided weapons to attack many Israeli military targets that day. The targets of the attack included the launch pad of Israel's Iron Dome system, the Israeli military barracks in Zarit and the Israeli military base in Kfar Shuba. Israel TV Channel 12 reported that Israel hoped to send a message in this way that Israel was prepared for the conflict to escalate into a full-scale war. Gold is considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic instability. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has recovered rapidly from the key support confluence area noted by readers in previous publications, highlighted by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, the lower edge of the price channel and horizontal support level 2,378USD. Currently, gold's move above the original price of 2,400 USD and EMA21 are positive conditions for an uptrend with the next target at 2,437 USD, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. In case gold breaks above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the target will once again be aimed at the all-time high at $2,484 price point when there is no notable technical resistance ahead. During the day, the trend of gold prices is still bullish and as long as gold remains above 2,400 USD, the short-term technical outlook will continue to be bullish. The prices will be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,416 – 2,400 – 2,385USD Resistance: 2,437 – 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2444 - 2442 ⚰️SL: 2448 ⬆️TP1: 2437 ⬆️TP2: 2432 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2404 - 2406 ⚰️SL: 2400 ⬆️TP1: 2411 ⬆️TP2: 2416
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → Consolidation above global trend supportFX:XAUUSD is trading inside the global range. The focus is on local support and resistance levels. The dollar is temporarily rising, which has an impact on gold, which is globally in a bullish trend. The gold price remains vulnerable despite the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance. The gold price continues to lose ground for the fifth day in a row on Wednesday, approaching a one-week low on the back of a generally stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury yields. There are not many key news today, so the general fundamental background and technical component should be evaluated as a priority. Technically, gold is not allowed below 2369 and 2380, forming a correction and a retest of the resistance at 2397-2400. If the bulls are able to break this zone and consolidate above the level, we can get on the train to the north, but an active struggle of differently-minded traders is forming in this zone. The trading range for today is 2420 - 2370 (confirmed by the movement of August 05 - 06). Resistance levels: 2397, 2400, 2420 Support levels: 2380, 2370 If bears hold resistance, price may test the lower boundary of the range. But, a retest and breakdown of 2420 would disrupt the market structure and character and create a fickle mood, within which the bulls may give impetus. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
15
DXY and Bond Yield still limit GOLDAs market expectations of the Federal Reserve adopting easing policies continue to solidify, higher US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields have sent gold into a correction cycle. significantly reduced. However, bets on a US interest rate cut in September continuing to increase as well as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will still be a solid fulcrum for the possibility of gold price increases. US Treasury yields continued the previous day's rise, recording the largest increase since early June and supporting the US Dollar, which weakened the upward momentum and appeal of gold. non-profit. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against six other currencies, rose to 103.1. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments. As market concerns about the situation in the Middle East continue to grow, gold will likely continue to show its appeal as a safe haven. US economic data is sparse this week, traders may focus on today's (Thursday) data on initial jobless claims. In other notable news, China's central bank did not buy gold as reserves for the third consecutive month in July, official data released showed on Wednesday. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 26.5% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 73.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively until November is 15.5%, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points cumulatively is 51.8%, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates The cumulative 100 basis point yield is 32.7%. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still trying to hold above key technical levels in the area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement confluence with the lower edge of the trend channel and the $2,378 horizontal support, after testing resistance at the confluence of Fibonacci 0.38% and Ema21 were noted to readers in previous publications. The fact that gold maintains its performance above the above support confluence area only shows that the bullish trend still exists on the daily technical chart. However, for gold to have enough conditions for a stable uptrend, it needs to bring price activity above the original price level of 2,400 USD and then the target level will be noticed at EMA21, more than 2,437 USD points. price of Fibonacci 0.236%. During the day, gold is still trending up with the price channel as the main trend and notable technical levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,385 – 2,378USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408 – 2,437USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2407 - 2405 ⚰️SL: 2411 ⬆️TP1: 2400 ⬆️TP2: 2395 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2363 - 2365 ⚰️SL: 2359 ⬆️TP1: 2370 ⬆️TP2: 2375
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD Plan Your Trade For 8-7 : Huge Dual-Leg Rally Setup $2550+Gold is setting up a unique dual-leg rally phase, and traders need to be aware of this before the move is complete. The recent panic setoff by the BOJ unsettled the markets - including Gold. The Yen Carry-trade unwound over the past 5+ days - resulting in a very consolidated downward price trend in Gold. I believe Gold is about to make two very big moves to the upside. The first move will be quick. Probably lasting only 2 or 3 days. The second move may be a bit longer, but it has the ability to rally well above $2550 as Gold reverts higher. Please pay attention to this video if you follow Gold. Gold as a hedge is one thing. This move is related to the reversion pressure and the protection of currency devaluation after the past 3+ weeks of global decoupling. I believe this next rally in gold will be explosive (min upside target $2550 or higher). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
GOLD is under pressure as Stocks, DXY, Bond yield increaseOANDA:XAUUSD Right at the opening session (August 7), it decreased by 5Dollar to 2,384USD, equivalent to a decrease of 0.25% on the day, as of the time this article was completed. The strength of the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates are the main reasons leading to the sell-off in gold prices. In addition, the recovery in global equity markets has revived the market's risk appetite, which also affected the safe-haven asset gold. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with attacks by Hezbollah in northern Israel, could support safe-haven gold. U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, as a jump in Japanese stocks helped boost sentiment. The Dow increased 294.39 points, or 0.76%, to 38,997.66 points; Nasdaq index increased 166.77 points, equivalent to 1.03%, to 16,366.85 points; The S&P 500 increased 53.70 points, or 1.04%, to 5,240.03 points. On the European stock front, Germany's DAX30 index closed up 0.08% on Tuesday; Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.23% and Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.08%. The Dxy index, which tracks the strength of the US Dollar, also increased to 103,199, equivalent to an increase of 0.26% on the day, a continued increase from the trading day on August 6. Gold is under pressure partly because bond yields continue to increase, with USD10Y increasing to 3,909, equivalent to an increase of 0.33%, similar to Dxy, it also continued the increase of the previous trading session. However, geopolitical issues remain after Hezbollah launched attacks in northern Israel, Valencia added. An escalation of the conflict could boost gold's outlook and even pave the way for a return to $2,400 an ounce. Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah has launched a series of drone and missile attacks on northern Israel. According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the market sees a 100% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold returned to test the support level noted by readers in the previous issue. The area is the confluence of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, the horizontal support of 2,378USD and the lower edge of the price channel. The above confluence area is an important support area, because if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will be a negative signal for the uptrend, because this means that the uptrend from the inner price channel The medium term was broken under the same double top pattern that formed. Previously, the fact that gold was operating below EMA21 was a technical disadvantage as the EMA21 level would now become resistance in the short term. However, in terms of trend, gold is currently still trending up because the supporting factors are still working well. During the day, the bullish technical outlook from the price channel will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,385 – 2,378 – 2,362USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2416 - 2414 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2409 ⬆️TP2: 2404 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2363 - 2365 ⚰️SL: 2359 ⬆️TP1: 2370 ⬆️TP2: 2375
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Gold Traders Alert: Crucial Levels to Watch for the Next Trade!Key Components: Chart Type and Pair: The chart is a 1-hour (1H) timeframe for the Gold Spot/U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) pair. Support and Resistance Levels: Horizontal Resistance Line at $2,446.18: This is labeled as "1HR LQZ" (1-hour liquidity zone), indicating a significant resistance level where price might face selling pressure. Horizontal Support Line at $2,347.82: Also labeled as "1HR LQZ," indicating a significant support level where the price might find buying interest. Trend Lines: There are descending yellow trend lines drawn, indicating a downtrend. The lower yellow trend line has a label suggesting a "Potential 3rd Touch," which typically indicates a possible point for a bounce or reversal. Price Action: The recent price action shows a lower high (LH) formation near $2,446.18, suggesting a downtrend continuation. Two potential scenarios are sketched on the right side of the chart with different colored lines (orange and green) depicting possible future price movements. Analysis: Current Trend: The overall trend appears to be bearish due to the formation of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). Support and Resistance: The price is currently trading between two significant levels ($2,446.18 and $2,347.82). Breaking either level with strong momentum could indicate the next directional move. The price nearing the lower yellow trend line for a potential third touch suggests a possible bounce. If the price respects this trend line, it could indicate a temporary support. Potential Scenarios: Bullish Scenario (Green Path): If the price finds support at the lower yellow trend line and the horizontal support at $2,347.82, it might bounce back towards $2,446.18. Breaking above this level could lead to a further rise. Bearish Scenario (Orange Path): If the price fails to hold the support at the yellow trend line and $2,347.82, it might continue to fall. A break below this support level could lead to further declines, targeting lower support levels not shown in the chart.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
Can Gold Surpass Its Recent Highs? Expert Analysis Inside!Key Levels: Higher High (HH): Marked near the top at around 2460. Lower High (LH): Slightly lower high indicating a possible trend change. Support/Resistance Zones: Key support/resistance levels are identified on the chart. Lower Time Frame (LTF) Lower High: Indicated by a yellow line, suggesting a lower high on a smaller timeframe within the larger trend. Liquidity Zones (LQZ): Marked on the 4-hour, 1-hour, and daily timeframes indicating potential areas of liquidity. Market Structure: Shorter Time Frame Higher Low: A higher low is indicated on a smaller timeframe, suggesting potential bullish continuation. Barley Missed HH and then pushed down: Indicates a failure to achieve a higher high, followed by a downward movement. Support Rejection: The market rejects off support, suggesting a possible formation of a new higher low (HL). Observations: The market is reacting to support and resistance levels, showing signs of potential trend continuation or reversal. The presence of multiple liquidity zones suggests areas where price might seek liquidity, influencing future price movements.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Adlercon333
4
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [05 August - 09 August]This week, the international gold price has continuously increased sharply after opening the week at 2,382 USD/oz due to increasing concerns about the US economic recession and the FED's announcement that it would cut interest rates in September. The gold price climbed to 2,477 USD/oz at one point, but then fell to 2,410 USD/oz and closed at 2,442 USD/oz. The US labor market has been deteriorating further, with the economy adding just 114,000 jobs in July, well below economists' forecasts of 176,000, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. More worryingly, the US unemployment rate in July jumped to 4.3%. This has increased expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its September meeting without any further promises. The above economic data will be the echo for the recovery of gold prices next week. From a technical perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend on long-term time frames, although there are corrections in the short-term frame. Gold prices may continue to maintain wave 5 corresponding to the Weekly chart, increasing above the 2500 round resistance level next week if it breaks through the old peak at 2483. If it fails to break through this resistance level, gold prices will move sideways within the range of 2385-2485. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,437 – 2,431 – 2,408USD Resistance: 2,484 – 2,475USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2501 - 2499⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2505 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2384 - 2386⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2380
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD trend remains positive, data week is lightDue to weaker-than-expected US employment data and market expectations of interest rate cuts, OANDA:XAUUSD increased more than 1% at the beginning of last week's trading session when the market took profit. As tensions in the Middle East lead to increased safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold has become more attractive to investors. It is up 2.35% this week, showing an overall uptrend. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Fed could cut interest rates as early as September if the U.S. economy grows as expected. Gold is seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, with lower interest rates reducing the opportunity cost of holding the asset and making gold attractive. The latest US Department of Labor released jobs data and 114,000 new workers were added in July, less than the 175,000 expected. The previous data was revised down from 206,000 to 179,000. The data also showed the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3% and average hourly earnings fell by a tenth from 0.3% to 0.2%. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets now see a 22% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, up from 12% previously. The market shows that the Fed will cut interest rates by 86 basis points at the remaining 3 meetings this year. Tensions in the Middle East increased, demand for gold as a safe haven increased, and Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, leading to further escalation of conflict. Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital after attending the inauguration of the new Iranian president, and both Iranian and Hamas officials blamed Israel for the attack. These developments further support gold prices as investors seek safe haven assets amid uncertainty. In terms of short-term forecasts, gold is expected to maintain its bullish trend, driven by risk aversion and dovish Federal Reserve policies. Geopolitical tensions and weak US economic data will support gold prices, Another piece of data to note is U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showing that for the week ending July 30, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts were reduced by 9,535 lots to 188,909 lots; Futures contracts decreased by 9,535 lots to 188,909 lots. Economic data and events to watch out for next week Focusing on the market next week, investors will pay attention to the following important events. Monday: ISM Services PMI: to be released on Monday, will provide the market with more information on the state of the services sector in the US. Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision: will be announced on Tuesday and investors will closely monitor its impact on the global monetary policy environment. Wednesday and Thursday: U.S. Bond Auctions: Wednesday and Thursday's 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions will be closely watched, especially after the strong gains of the bond market this week. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold corrects after approaching target level at all-time peak. Note to readers in previous publications that the only closest resistance level was found technically. However, the profit-taking motivation did not cause gold to correct longer, while the support level at the confluence of EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement pushed gold prices to recover above the 0.236% Fibonacci, which should be considered a positive signal for gold prices. On the daily chart, the near-term target for gold prices will still be highlighted by the all-time high, price point of $2,484. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the trend price channel, its technical outlook remains bullish and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,431 – 2,408USD Resistance: 2,484 – 2,452USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2461 - 2459 ⚰️SL: 2465 ⬆️TP1: 2454 ⬆️TP2: 2449 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2494 - 2496 ⚰️SL: 2490 ⬆️TP1: 2401 ⬆️TP2: 2406
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered after a large correctionOANDA:XAUUSD recovered to above the original price of 2,400 USD after suffering a general decline in the market during the bloody trading session on August 5. In general, in terms of basic and technical trends, the uptrend for gold prices is still will prevail. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets and bet that the Federal Reserve now needs to sharply cut interest rates to spur economic growth. In addition, geopolitical developments in the Middle East are showing more and more signs that escalation is also a huge driving force for gold prices. Economic data US services sector activity recovered in July Activity in the U.S. services sector rebounded from a four-year low in July as orders and employment increased, data showed. The services sector expanded again in July, exiting its worst recession in four years, which may help ease fears of a widespread economic slowdown. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) comprehensive services industry index rose 2.6 points to 51.4, above 50, the index's key boundary. The July data was slightly higher than the average forecast of economists surveyed. The index was boosted by a rebound in services employment, orders and business activity, showing modest growth in the services sector, the economy's biggest pillar. Previously, US Department of Labor data released on Friday showed the unemployment rate rose to a nearly three-year high of 4.3% and job growth slowed significantly. The jobs report increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will make more aggressive interest rate cuts before the end of the year. According to CME's FedWatch tool, a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is certainly imminent. The data also showed that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut lending rates by more than 100 basis points this year. Political geography Gold prices remain significantly supported by rising geopolitical tensions and growing concerns about a global economic slowdown. The conflict in the Middle East appears to have widened, with Iran-backed Hezbollah saying it fired multiple missiles at Israel on Saturday in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in Tehran aimed at assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. In terms of fundamentals, geopolitical tensions have increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered significantly after suffering a large correction yesterday with another retest of the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, keeping price activity above the $2,400 raw price is a positive signal for gold prices and staying above EMA21 opens up the prospect of a more extended upside with a short-term target around 2,431 – 2,437 USD. Looking at the overall picture, the structure for the uptrend of gold prices has not been affected with the price channel being the main trend in the medium term. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is bullish with notable price levels listed below. Support: 2,408 – 2,400 – 2,385USD Resistance: 2,431 – 2,437USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2426 - 2424 ⚰️SL: 2430 ⬆️TP1: 2419 ⬆️TP2: 2414 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2394 - 2396 ⚰️SL: 2390 ⬆️TP1: 2401 ⬆️TP2: 2406
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → A retest of trend support. ISM PMI ahead...FX:XAUUSD is moving into the correction phase amid unstable fundamental environment. The price of the metal is declining towards the rather important zone of 2420, which has shown itself more than once. Fundamentally, the market is in fear because of possible recession, which may become a motivation for the Fed to take hasty actions and more aggressive easing of monetary policy Rumors are emerging about a possible emergency FED meeting in the near future. Not to forget gold as a hedge asset, which continues to feel supported in volatile times. Speculators are cautious and refrain from premature actions ahead of the ISM services PMI data and the tense situation in the Middle East. Support levels: 2419,6, 2403, 2382 Resistance levels: 2451, 2474 Technically, gold is at a strong support at 2419 and judging by the reaction of the price to the level, the buyers are acting quite aggressively, trying to hold the market. Against this background, the price may strengthen to the nearest resistance 2430, 2445, 2450, but if the price starts to return to 2419, forming a quick retest, it will increase the chances of a possible breakdown of the bullish channel and further decline to the zone of interest and liquidity. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSD
by RLinda
17
GOLD heads to era levels, pay special attention to NFPOANDA:XAUUSD continues to trade with an uptrend, heading towards all-time levels as markets eye upcoming US nonfarm payrolls data, to be released today (Friday) this week. FED Although the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Wednesday, Chairman Jerome Powell said rates could be cut in September if the US economy grows as expected. Recent economic data supports interest rate cuts, but Fed officials remain skeptical about the reflation process and say they want to see more data. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 29.5%. As an effective traditional economic and geopolitical risk hedge, gold typically performs well and finds support in low interest rate environments. In terms of economic data US ISM manufacturing data fell for a fourth straight month and initial jobless claims rose last week, again raising concerns that the US economy could fall into recession . According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, initial jobless claims rose from 14,000 to 249,000 in the week ended July 27. The survey forecast was for 236,000. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported Thursday that the ISM manufacturing index fell 1.7 to 46.8 in July. A reading below 50 indicates industry activity is contracting. The latest data was weaker than all surveys expected. Traders now await Friday's US jobs report for further direction on Fed policy. It is expected that the US will create 175,000 new jobs in July and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. If non-farm data falls short of expectations, the US dollar could suffer, thereby stimulating further gold price increases. Political geography According to many sources, Iran may attack Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this week. The United States is preparing for an Iranian attack on Israel in the coming days. We need to remember the time in 2019 when Iran also attacked Israel in retaliation for the assassination of the leader of Iran's special forces, and at this time gold increased significantly. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian political and military officials said Iran would retaliate for Haniyeh's assassination. A senior Israeli official said the Israeli intelligence community predicted Iran would launch a large-scale missile attack on Israel. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold fell and received support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement area it recovered and continued the main uptrend approaching all-time levels. Note to readers in yesterday's edition. In the short term, there is no more notable level of technical resistance than the all-time high at $2,484, while the closest support is at $2,437 and the main trend is an uptrend highlighted by the channel. price and moving average EMA21. In addition, the relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up, showing that the momentum and room for price increases are still wide. As long as gold remains above $2,437, it still has short-term upside prospects. Meanwhile, even if sold below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the downward momentum will still be limited by the confluence of support from EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.382%. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish with notable technical levels listed as follows. Support: 2,437 – 2,431USD Resistance: 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2476 - 2474 ⚰️SL: 2480 ⬆️TP1: 2469 ⬆️TP2: 2464 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2420 - 2422 ⚰️SL: 2416 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2432
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD price slipped because investors took profitsOANDA:XAUUSD decreased during the trading session on Friday (August 2), because investors took profits after this precious metal had a sharp increase in price during the trading session. Analysts believe that gold prices may soon exceed 2,500 USD/oz because the risk of a US economic recession may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates more strongly than expected. However, gold prices have risen 1.8% this week as demand for hedging increases amid heating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and investor expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates next year. September - a move that will create a more favorable environment for gold prices. According to the latest statistics, the US job market decelerated stronger than expected and the unemployment rate increased to the highest level since October 2021. The nonfarm payrolls report from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of new jobs in the month was 179,000 jobs, compared to the number of 185,000 new jobs that economists reported in a survey by the firm. Dow Jones news. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% from 4.1% previously. The report caused US Treasury bond prices to increase sharply while the USD exchange rate plummeted, creating support for gold prices, helping this precious metal avoid the risk of a deep decline due to profit-taking pressure. Along with that, the USD dropped sharply, with the Dollar Index falling 1.15%, closing the week at 103.22 points. This is the lowest level of this index since March. All week, the Dollar Index decreased 1.05%. This week, an important driving force for gold prices was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's announcement on Wednesday that interest rates could be cut as soon as September if the US economy performed as expected. With the recently released gloomy employment report, many experts believe that the Fed may have to reduce interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at the September meeting, instead of 0.25 percentage points.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD increased strongly after FOMC, pay attention to NFPAfter the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, OANDA:XAUUSD surged toward all-time highs. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that US jobs data will begin to play an important role in setting monetary policy. Economic data U.S. economic data showed private hiring slowed in July, according to ADP's latest jobs change report. Additionally, building permits improved after a decline in May, while the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which the Fed uses to measure wage inflation pressures, fell in the second quarter. year 2024. FOMC The Federal Reserve once again decided to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. This is the 8th consecutive meeting of the Federal Reserve without adjusting interest rates. Powell said deflation has “extended” and noted downside risks to the labor market. “We think the current labor market is unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure,” Powell added, saying that if they see a decline in the job market, “we will respond.” Following these comments, Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report will be a key link in the Fed's move to focus more on employment. After Powell's speech, market participants were pricing in a 70 basis point (bps) interest rate cut later this year. Fed policy statement In their monetary policy statement, Fed officials noted that "The Committee believes it would be inappropriate to lower the target range until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% sustainably and the risks associated with dual mandates have become more balanced.” Traders should pay special attention to the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data for July and nonfarm payrolls (NFP), which will be released on Thursday and Friday. Geopolitical risks escalate Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the New York Times reported on Wednesday that three Iranian officials said Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered Iran to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the leader's murder. Hamas Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran and Hamas accused Israel of carrying out the assassination. The report indicates that three Iranian officials, including two members of the Revolutionary Guard, said Khamenei issued the order at an emergency meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council this morning. Wednesday. Not long ago, Iran announced that Haniyeh had been killed. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold increased significantly, reaching the target level at 2,437 USD and breaking this level, the gold price is now fully qualified to move towards an all-time peak. The current correction cycle has technically ended with the closest support for gold prices being noticed at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point. The main trend is noticed with the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As long as gold remains above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it still has enough room to rise in the short term with the target level being an all-time high. Meanwhile, even if gold corrects below $2,437, the decline will be limited by the confluence of the Fibonacci 0.382% and EMA21. During the day, gold's technical outlook is bullish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,437 – 2,408USD Resistance: 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2475 - 2473 ⚰️SL: 2479 ⬆️TP1: 2468 ⬆️TP2: 2463 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2420 - 2422 ⚰️SL: 2416 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2432
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
XAUUSD Bull Cycle still intact, targeting above $3000Exactly 4 months ago (April 04, see chart below), we made a long-term bullish call on Gold (XAUUSD), after it confirmed the new Bull Cycle: The consolidation that followed and successfully double bottomed like the November 2019 Support bounce, is now over and Gold has started the 2nd phase of this Bull Cycle. In March 2020 we had the Black Swan event of the COVID crash, and if we avoid such a danger again, we expect the bullish trend to continue. The last Cycle's peak (August 03 2020) was just below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. This gives us a rough Target of $3100, but of course this can be revised as we go, depending on the global macroeconomics and geopolitics. Note also that the last Cycle's peak was formed when the 1W RSI made its 3rd overbought top above 70.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
Gold Faces Critical Resistance: Will the Bull Run Continue?Chart Overview Timeframe: 1-hour chart Exchange: OANDA Current Price: 2444.100 Key Levels and Zones 4HR LQZ: 2474.524 1HR LQZ: 2370.122 Support Level: 2348.660 Key Low: 2287.754 Patterns and Channels Descending Channel: The price moved within a descending channel before breaking out. Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) formed within this channel. Ascending Channel: The price moved into an ascending channel after breaking out of the descending channel. Higher Lows (HL) and Higher Highs (HH) are visible, indicating a potential upward trend. Current Price Action Recent Higher High (HH): Price reached a higher high at the top of the ascending channel. Potential Lower High: There is a possibility of forming a new lower high, as indicated by the recent price action near the 4HR LQZ. Rejection at 4HR LQZ: The price touched the 4HR LQZ and showed signs of rejection, pulling back slightly. Inset Chart: DXY The inset chart displays the DXY (US Dollar Index), which shows a descending pattern, potentially indicating USD weakness. This is relevant because gold often inversely correlates with the USD. Market Sentiment Bullish Signs: The breakout from the descending channel. Formation of the ascending channel with higher highs and higher lows. Bearish Signs: Rejection at the 4HR LQZ. Potential formation of a new lower high, indicating possible weakness or a reversal in the uptrend. Summary The XAUUSD chart shows a recent breakout from a descending channel and the formation of an ascending channel, suggesting a short-term bullish trend. However, the price faced rejection at the 4HR LQZ and is showing signs of forming a potential new lower high, which could indicate a reversal or consolidation phase. Monitoring key levels and market sentiment (especially USD movements) will be crucial for future price action.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333