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GC1! (Gold Futures)

GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 23 - Sep 27]This week, after opening at 2,579 USD/oz, the international gold price dropped to 2,546 USD/oz, but then continuously increased sharply beyond the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz to 2,625 USD/oz and closed the week. at 2,622 USD/oz. International gold prices increased sharply because the FED cut interest rates by up to 50 basis points and signaled that it would further cut interest rates by about 200 basis points in the next 2 years. FED Chairman Powell said the FED will not rush to sharply loosen monetary policy and noted that the FED is currently in the process of readjusting its monetary policy. Mr. Powell's comments show that the FED will not be too hasty in cutting interest rates, but will adjust monetary policy according to a specific roadmap. This may somewhat cause confusion among investors, causing them to take profits from gold investments that have yielded large profits, causing gold prices to adjust and accumulate in the short term. However, with the FED's roadmap to cut interest rates, gold prices are expected to continue to increase sharply in the near future. 📌Technical analysis indicators, such as MACD, RSI... are showing that gold price is in the overbought zone in the short term. However, the upward momentum of gold prices is still there, with no signs of reversal. The attractive area for gold prices seems to be the round block of 3,000 USD/oz, corresponding to the Fibo level of 261.8 calculated according to the Weekly chart. From a narrower perspective, looking at the H4 chart, in the immediate future, the gold price may continue to maintain its upward momentum to conquer the next resistance level around 2,690 - 2,700 USD/oz, before decreasing and adjusting again. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.595 – 2.600 – 2.610USD Resistance: 2.645 – 2.624USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2695 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2521⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2515
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
SILVER SHORT via AG (WORST RUN MINER IN THE GAME) FUNDAMENTAL - Price of Silver aside, AG is an incredibly poorly run miner. From mass share dilution to disastrous acquisitions I can not think of a more poorly run company. The stock price speaks for itself... sitting near the lows of the year despite silver at recent highs. SILVER - Silver has been behaving very weak in relation to Gold. Unless we break out above 31.50-32.50 I see Silver continuing to be range bound at best. There are many reasons for this. Mainly indications from strong correlations that I will not mention (secret sauce). TECHNICALS - The price is at a solid supply level (6.20) and has already began dramatic impulses to the downside at any hint of Silver rolling over. In addition we have divergence on the RSI. DISCLAMER: No Neumeyers were hurt in the making of this post
NYSE:AGShort
by TheSilverOracle
COT Strategy - Gold ShortDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Gold (GC) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Only thing that would be better is SS's making an extreme in long positioning, but no luck with that yet (but something I'm watching). OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move since June. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish. In the case of Gold, it is being caused by LS & SS's, which is bearish. Spread: Bearishly diverging. ADX: Diverging, implying the trend lacks integrity. Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dis , %R, Stochastic & Momentum (not yet triggered) Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
COMEX:GCZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
GOLD surpassed the 2,600 USD/oz markOANDA:XAUUSD increased sharply in the trading session on Friday (September 20), with spot gold prices officially surpassing the important barrier of 2,600 USD/oz for the first time in history. The possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing to cut interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East act as direct catalysts for this breakthrough in gold. At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market increased by 36.3 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of 1.4%, closing at 2,622.4 USD/oz. The Fed's move to lower interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday is "fueling" gold prices. This precious metal is a non-interest bearing asset, so it benefits in a falling interest rate environment. According to data from CME's FedWatch Tool, interest rate futures traders are betting on a 100% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in both its November and December meetings. In addition, this year, global investors are also actively buying gold to hedge against lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East and some other places. The trend of net buying gold by central banks to diversify foreign exchange reserves away from the USD also contributed greatly to the increase in gold prices. Israel announced that it had killed a senior commander and important figures of Hezbollah in an airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, raising concerns about the risk of widespread war in the Middle East. However, US President Joe Biden still believes that the possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement for the Gaza Strip is realistic. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased 26%, the largest increase in a year since 2010. Some analysts believe that this record increase in gold prices may soon turn into a correction state. The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six other major currencies, increased 0.12% on Friday, closing at 100.74 points. However, the index has decreased 0.37% this week and decreased nearly 4.8% in the past 3 months - according to data from MarketWatch.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD: 2,650 by next week, 2,850 by early 2025.Gold turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.445, MACD = 34.140, ADX = 33.307). Despite that, our TP = 2,650 will most likely get hit by next week, so now we will discuss what could happen next. Obviously a rejection at the Top of the Channel Up is most likely to take place, with which the market will seek technical confirmation of a support and buyers near the 1D MA50 again. On the 1W timeframe however (right chart), with the Fed cutting the rates aggressively as during the pandemic (March 2020), it is very likely that we are in a post cut rally which, with the support of the 1W MA50, will peak possibly as high as +78.50%, like the August 2020 Top. Consequently, we see more probable long term for Gold to reach 2,850 by February-March 2025. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
GOLD continues to be strong, geopolitical tensionsOn Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, starting an easing cycle and gold prices rose accordingly. Traders are ignoring the rise in US Treasury yields, which are inversely correlated with gold, and gold is still aiming for $2,600 raw price or perhaps a new all-time high. grand. Readers can review the Federal Reserve's policy analysis in yesterday's publication linked below. Tensions in the Middle East and ceasefire negotiations are positive for gold “Gold is considered a safe haven in times of political and economic uncertainty, and because gold is not subject to interest, it often thrives in low interest rate environments.” The Wall Street published an exclusive report on Thursday, local time, The Wall Street said senior US officials had said a ceasefire and hostage release was within reach, but now here they admitted that they did not expect Israel and Hamas to attend. "There is no chance of achieving this now," the Saudi official said shortly after the pager attack on Hezbollah. "Everyone is waiting and watching to see what happens after the election. Conclusion The results will determine what the next government can do." Failure to reach an agreement will harm the "job" of current President Biden. According to Gaza's Health Ministry, the war has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, mostly women and minors. According to the latest report by Agence France-Presse, Lebanese Minister of Public Health Firas Abyad said that communication equipment explosions occurred in many places in Lebanon on September 17 and 18 local time. , leaving 37 people dead and nearly 3,000 injured. On September 19, Hamas issued a statement thanking Hezbollah for its support in Lebanon. Hamas said that Hezbollah's resolute stance in Lebanon "has undermined Israel's efforts to sabotage the resistance movement in the Gaza Strip." Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After adjusting and recovering, gold currently has all the conditions to aim for the target increase at the original price point of 2,600 USD that was previously achieved. In the short term, $2,600 will remain the target resistance, however once gold breaks above the $2,600 base price it could continue to rise another $12 to test the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. The uptrend will still be the main trend with the price channel and support from EMA21. As long as gold remains in the price channel, price drops should only be considered short-term corrections without damaging the main trend. . Maintaining above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension is also a positive signal for gold prices in the short term technically. During the day, the bullish outlook will be noticed by the following levels. Support: 2,582 – 2,575 – 2,561USD Resistance: 2,600 – 2,612USD In the current trading environment, large fluctuations often occur. It can be said that these fluctuations are so large that looking for so-called optimal entry positions too close will bring the risk of being "swept out". " Therefore, along with finding reasonable entry locations, optimization also needs to be emphasized in the process of controlling volume and transaction density. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2616 - 2614⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2620 →Take Profit 1 2609 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2604 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2564 - 2566⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2560 →Take Profit 1 2571 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2576
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD Breaks Records,Overbought Signals Hint at Scalping ReversalGold surged to a new all-time high near $2,610 on Friday as expectations grew that global central banks will join the Federal Reserve (Fed) in easing monetary policy and cutting interest rates. Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by the prospect of lower interest rates, which diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-paying assets like gold. This surge in gold’s value is largely attributed to the growing consensus that central banks worldwide will follow the Fed's lead in slashing rates to stimulate economic growth. Lower interest rates typically favor gold, as they make alternative interest-bearing investments less attractive. With fewer benefits from higher-yielding assets, gold becomes a more appealing choice for investors looking to protect their wealth in an environment of falling rates. However, as gold reaches new highs, there’s a caveat: when access to gold becomes easier, it reduces the perceived value of holding it, as the scarcity that once made the asset so desirable begins to wane. Amid this record-breaking rally, we’ve noticed overbought conditions in the gold market, signaling a potential opportunity for scalpers. A short-term bearish setup is forming as gold nears a technical exhaustion point. The sharp rise in price has pushed gold into overbought territory, which often precedes a pullback or reversal. This presents a lucrative opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on a quick price correction. From a technical standpoint, gold is showing signs of a potential reversal, as momentum indicators flash warning signals of an impending price downturn. Scalpers and short-term traders may find an attractive entry point for a bearish trade, particularly if gold fails to maintain its new record high and starts retreating toward key support levels. While the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to global monetary easing, in the short term, market conditions may favor a pullback. Traders looking for a short-term bearish setup should monitor key resistance levels and momentum indicators for confirmation of a reversal. With gold hovering near its peak, the potential for a temporary correction is becoming increasingly likely, making it a prime target for short-term profit opportunities. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
2
After Powell's speech, GOLD prices plummetedAfter the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery soared to 2,600.15 USD/ounce, reaching a new era record high. But after Powell's speech, gold prices plummeted, currently trading around 2,563 USD/ounce. Powell said at the press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a fixed pace of new rate cuts.” On Wednesday local time, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting in Washington, lowering its target range. target the federal funds rate down to 4.75%-5%. This is the first time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since March 2020. Fed officials expect interest rates to fall to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% in 2025. This decision to cut interest rates was not supported by all FOMC members. The statement shows that one person voted against the 50 basis point rate cut and Fed Governor Bowman, who voted against it, supported the 25 basis point rate cut. Thus, Bowman became the first Fed governor since 2005 to vote against the decision of a majority of FOMC members at the FOMC interest rate meeting. Summary of Jerome Powell's speech Powell said: "We are recalibrating our policy stance; nothing in our (economic) forecasts suggests that we are rushing to act; Fed economic forecasts are basic forecasts; the actual actions we take will depend on how the economy develops. If appropriate, we can speed up or slow down the pace of interest rate cuts , or even choose to pause; this 50 basis point cut does not mean we are rushing to act.” “I don't see any signs right now that the likelihood of a recession has increased,” Powell said. I don't see that. You will see the economy growing at a steady pace, see inflation decreasing. You'll see the workforce, the market remain at a very stable level, so I don't see that right now." Powell's indication that if appropriate, the Fed could speed up or slow down the pace of rate cuts, or even choose to pause this 50 basis point rate cut, does not indicate the Fed is ready to act. This has damaged market sentiment that the Fed will cut interest rates more aggressively in the future, which has weakened gold prices. But it does not mean a basic trend because the basic trend will still be bullish, because the path to cutting interest rates by the Fed is still very long and data will continue to be the next catalyst. The reason to say that the path to cutting interest rates is still very long is that readers can pay attention to the details that "in the shortest term", Fed officials expect interest rates to drop to 4.4% by the end of 2024. and down to 3.4% by 2025. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold corrected significantly on yesterday's trading day after renewing its all-time high in the $2,600 area, this was also the target increase that readers noticed in the weekly publication. Technically, the adjustment from the original price level is not an unusual sign of the trend. The current trend of gold price is still bullish with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 as the main support. As long as gold remains within the price channel, the technical outlook remains bullish. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up, showing that momentum and room for price growth are still ahead. Once gold breaks above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension it will be in position to retest the all-time high once again and gold sustaining price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension is a positive signal for the trend. short-term upward trend. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price points. Support: 2,561 – 2,546 – ​​2,540USD Resistance: 2,582USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2584⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2590 →Take Profit 1 2579 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2574 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2524 - 2526⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2520 →Take Profit 1 2531 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2536
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD recovers from support at $2,561, Fed decisionOANDA:XAUUSD decreased and recovered after the US announced retail sales figures for August. This is the last important US macroeconomic data released before the Fed's decision today (Wednesday). Gold price touched 2,560 USD in yesterday's trading session. As of the time of writing, spot gold is at 2,573 USD/ounce. Data from the US Census Bureau showed US retail sales increased 0.1% month-on-month in August, compared with a revised 1.1% increase in July. higher than expectations of a 0.2% decline. Meanwhile, US retail sales (excluding autos) increased 0.1% after increasing 0.4% in July. This figure was lower than expectations for 0.2% growth. The data slightly reduces the likelihood of a 50 basis point Federal Reserve cut at its September meeting, which would have an impact on gold's near-term gains. Fed decision upcoming Today (Wednesday), the market will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Powell's press conference, which is expected to create a major volatility in the gold market. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut was 67% before the data was released, but after the data was released, the probability fell to 65%. This would be the Fed's first rate cut since 2020, and financial markets have priced in the possibility of the Fed acting aggressively, as indicated by rates on CME's FedWatch tool. Since gold does not yield interest, a low interest rate environment can reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which is more beneficial for gold. Gold buying power will decrease if the Fed only cuts 25bps this time, however, gold will be supported and rise even higher once the Fed cuts 50bps. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold corrected yesterday, it received support at the 0.50% Fibonacci extension. Note to readers in the previous issue. The current price point of 2,561USD is the nearest support level, while the price point of 2,582USD is the nearest resistance and is also the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci level. For gold to have enough conditions to increase in price technically, it needs to break the level of 2,582 USD and maintain price activity above this level, then the target is still the original price point of 2,600 USD in the short term rather than the level of 2,612 USD. Fibonacci price point 0.786%. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices is still dominating with the main trend from the price channel, and notable levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,561USD Resistance: 2,582USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2610 →Take Profit 1 2599 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2594 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2544 - 2546⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2540 →Take Profit 1 2551 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2556
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Important data, GOLD traded quite narrowly ahead of FOMCOANDA:XAUUSD there are many fluctuations but still maintain the main uptrend, on this trading day the market will receive US retail sales data, this data will have a certain influence on the decision of the Federal Reserve (FED) this week. Today (Tuesday), the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for August. Economists expect US retail sales to fall 0.2% monthly in August, after rising 1% in July. US retail sales data typically has a greater impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold. August data is expected to be lower than July's positive data and is expected to guide the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts, favoring a 50 basis point cut instead of a 25 basis point cut. copy. Of course, this is negative for the US Dollar and positive for gold. While retail sales data will be the primary focus today, the focus this week is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due to be announced on Wednesday. According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has jumped to 67.0%. Less than a week ago, the market believed the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while only 25% believed the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This is a signal that the possibility of a 50bps cut on Wednesday is becoming more solid. Since gold does not yield interest, a low interest rate environment can reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which is more beneficial for gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Temporarily, gold is still trading in a fairly narrow range but the main uptrend has not changed technically with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 moving average as the main support. Gold's short-term uptrend is limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, which readers noticed in the weekly publication on Sunday. For gold to have enough conditions to increase in price further, it needs to bring price activity above 2,582 USD, and this is also the current closest resistance level. Even if gold has not been able to break the $2,582 level to reach the next short-term target level at the original price point of $2,600 and beyond the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it still has a bullish bias. However, corrections can still occur because the technical principle is that the market will not be able to move in a straight line, and the immediate correction in the short term will be limited by the Fibonacci 0.50% price point of 2,561. USD, this is considered the closest support level currently. During the day, gold's uptrend may encounter short-term corrections with notable price levels listed below. Support: 2,575 – 2,561USD Resistance: 2,600 – 2,612USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2610 →Take Profit 1 2599 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2594 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2544 - 2546⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2540 →Take Profit 1 2551 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2556
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
VOLATILITY EXPANSION = GOLD - $2800MACRO - Gold is not only benefiting from the prospect of rate cuts but the added uncertainty of lingering inflation concerns given the latest CPI/PPI numbers. If FOMC's rate cut looks anything like ECB's Gold will outperform in the week(s) ahead. TECHNICAL Gold has broken out of a tightening range and volatility is expanding. This trade set up will be valid as long as Gold continues to hold above the Daily Bollinger Band and Close above its previous days low. I will look for a 9 candle count move here for an ultimate target around the $2700-$2800 level. That being said, I will look to take partial profits on any major impulses during FOMC meeting/rate cut.
TVC:GOLDLong
by TheSilverOracle
XAUUSD Approaching the cyclical top. Be ready to sell.A little more than 2 months ago (July 08, see chart below) we signaled a strong buy on Gold (XAUUSD) as the start of the new Bullish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up was confirmed, and we set a long-term Target at 2600: Now that the Target is about to get hit, we prepare for a new long-term peak at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. The previous rallies/ Bullish Legs of the pattern rose by a minimum of +15.74% and maximum of +24.12%. The latter rally however started very close to the bottom of the Channel Up, so we believe that the new top will be priced within a +15.74% and + 18.60% (second lowest) range. This gives us a Bearish Range of 2635 - 2700, where the action is a Sell, certainly not the level to place any long-term buys. We will start considering this after the price approaches the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) again, which is a signal that only failed once in four times. This time the top formation may be prolonged until November's U.S. elections but the bottom line is that near the top of the Channel Up, the action is to sell/ take profit. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
GOLD continuously sets new peaks, conditions for 2,600 USDEnd of last trading week, OANDA:XAUUSD Spots hit a new all-time record high, building on the strength and momentum received from Thursday, as the market bullishly priced in the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. . Gold prices have surged this year, driven by the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, central bank buying and strong safe-haven demand from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. pushed up gold prices. Safe-haven demand has pushed gold up more than 24%, driven by geopolitical crises and economic uncertainty, as well as strong central bank buying. Last week, the World Gold Council said global physical gold exchange-traded funds saw capital inflows for the fourth consecutive month in August. As the Federal Reserve's next meeting on September 18 approaches, markets are paying close attention to the possibility of the US cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020. Low interest rates tend to support gold and creating pressure on the USD. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows investors now see a 50% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut next week in US interest rates. Looking ahead, the gold market this week will focus on important events such as the Fed's interest rate decision and the revised Dotplot chart, comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the post-FOMC press conference, expected will create big fluctuations in the market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold achieved the target increase sent to readers in the issue at the 0.618% trend-following Fibonacci extension and the upward momentum slowed, narrowing below this level. Looking at it comprehensively, gold is still completely capable of continuing to increase in price as the Relative Strength Index points up with a large slope but has not gone above the overbought level, showing that there is still room for upward momentum. still ahead. In the short term, as long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, its trend remains bullish and pullbacks that do not break these supports should only be considered technical corrections without change trend. In the immediate future, if the gold price is pushed above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will have enough conditions to continue to increase to the original price of 2,600 USD and more than the 0.786% Fibonacci price point of 2,612 USD. The uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,561 – 2,567USD Resistance: 2,590 – 2,613USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2601 - 2599⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2594 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2589 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2553 - 2555⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2549 →Take Profit 1 2560 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2565
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 16 - Sep 20]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased quite sharply, from 2,485 USD/oz to 2,585 USD/oz and closed at 2,579 USD/oz. The reason international gold prices increased sharply this week is because the market expects the FED to strongly cut interest rates at its meeting next week, with a cut of up to 50 percentage points. However, considering economic data and the current US economic situation, the FED can only cut interest rates by 25 percentage points. This week, we saw the US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase by 2.5% year-on-year, lower than the expected increase of 2.6% and down sharply from the increase of 2.5%. .9% in July. However, core CPI, excluding energy and food prices, increased by 3.2%, a slight increase compared to July's data. Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate in August decreased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%, although this figure is still high compared to the 3.8% rate recorded a year ago. In particular, GDP in the second quarter in the most recent adjustment increased to 3% over the same period last year, much higher than the previously announced 2.8%... All of the above data shows that although the US economy has slowed down, inflation is cooling down, and the labor market is still difficult, it cannot fall into a short-term recession. Therefore, the FED will likely only cut interest rates by 25 percentage points. In principle, when the FED cuts interest rates, gold prices will increase. However, the increase in gold prices next week will depend on the level of interest rate cuts by the FED. Currently, there is only about a 43% chance that the FED will cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. Therefore, if the FED only cuts interest rates by 25 percentage points, next week's gold price could still rise above the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz, but then will be under pressure from investors to sell and take profits. If the FED cuts interest rates by up to 50 percentage points, gold prices next week could increase far beyond the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz. While the Fed's decision will be the focus of the gold market next week, other important economic data could also cause some volatility in gold prices next week, such as manufacturing figures. , housing market and retail sales data. In addition, after the FED's monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce their monetary policy decisions. 📌Technically, in the short term for the H4 technical chart, after a period of cumulative sideways movement, this week the gold price has broken out of the old peak at 2530 and far exceeded this resistance level. In the immediate future, the gold price will correct. Recovering the round resistance level of 2600. However, divergence signals have appeared on almost all time frames from Weekly, Daily, H4... (Divergence does not mean the price will decrease. Divergence in the financial market In general, the forex market in particular reflects that buyers are no longer interested in high prices. However, there has been no profit-taking action, so the price divergence gives us a warning not to participate buy more, although the price may continue to break to new highs) Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.530 – 2.561USD Resistance: 2.613 – 2.582USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2601 - 2599⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2605 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2523 - 2525⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2519
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
The ART of sitting ON YOUR HANDSI was not always a bear... but my arms are tired of holding these Silver Bags for over a decade. I am still bullish! In the long long term ( ; I am still holding a longterm SILJ short position ( see previous post ) but the immediate future is not clear. Will we get an explosive rally leading up to... during... or after the FOMC? I would not bet on it. The truth is however that nobody knows. As Ray Dalio says, "He who lives by the crystal ball will eat shattered glass" The next few weeks will provide a challenge for market timers and speculators. I expect plenty of whipsaw and broken hearts before a trend is established (bullish or bearish). I am waiting for a break of 29.83 to become a Bull and enter Long I am waiting for a break of 26.67 to become a Bear (a big one) and enter Short I strongly recommend waiting for a daily close over these levels before getting to comfortable unless you are prepared to keep a tight stop and run for the hills if either of these breaks turn out to be a trap. Until then this range (in between the two levels will provide plenty of juicy scalping opportunities for cowboys like myself. I am using the .382 Fib level 28.10 (derived from the Oct 23 Low to the High in May 24) as my guiding light and BABB (Bullish above Bearish below) in the interim with TPs at my key break levels. They will be formidable resistance/support zones until broken and proven otherwise. Happy trading!
COMEX:SI1!
by TheSilverOracle
Achieving the target increase, highest GOLD of all timeOANDA:XAUUSD The increase reached all target levels sent to readers for many weeks and established a new era peak. The uptrend did not change both fundamentally and technically after PPI inflation data was published. After the European Central Bank announced its monetary policy on Thursday and the United States released relevant macroeconomic data, spot gold prices rose to a record high and are currently maintaining their upward momentum. during the Asian trading session on September 13. The European Central Bank cut interest rates on Thursday, but President Christine Lagarde downgraded expectations for another rate cut next month, saying the central bank will decide on policy action Next is based on economic data. The Euro has risen stronger than the USD and this is also an unfavorable impact for the USD. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims for the week ended September 7 were 230,000, up 2,000 from the previous reporting period and higher than last year. Market expectation is 225,000. Other data on Thursday showed the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.7% year-on-year in August, less than the 1.8% expected while core PPI rose 2.4% over the same period last year, also lower than the expected level of 2.5%. The lower-than-expected PPI inflation data boosted market sentiment with more confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates significantly next week. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold achieved all of the target increases sent to readers in the multi-week issue at 2,531 – 2,544 USD, it set a new era record and continues to price increase. In the immediate future, using trend-following Fibonacci extensions shows that the closest target level that gold can aim for is 2,582 USD, the Fibonacci 0.618% price point. On the other hand, even if gold corrects lower, the losses will be limited by the 0.382% Fibonacci price point of $2,540, or more than $2,531. However, the trend of gold in the short, medium and long term will still be price increase. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has short-term upside prospects with the EMA21 level being noted as key support for the time being. During the day, the bullish outlook for scum prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,544 – 2,540 – 2,531USD Resistance: 2,582 – 2,600 – 2,612USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2584 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2579 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2518 - 2520⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2514 →Take Profit 1 2525 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2530
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD: Makes a critical Bull Cross and aims at 2,650.Gold has turned completely bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.281, MACD = 19.680, ADX = 29.142) as it made a new All Time High today, extending the new bullish wave of the Channel Up. With the support of the 1D MA50, which is unbroken since July 3rd, we expect the extension of this wave as the 1D MACD is on its way to a Bull Cross. Since early June MACD Bull Crosses have come one after the other, the first priced Gold's bottom and the second confirmed it. Consequently, this is the most efficient level to buy and aim for a new +7.50% rise (TP = 2,650). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
USD & GOLD Market Review September 12, 2024Real Volume Analysis of Gold in the Gold Future => Looking at the chart shows that the market is still very interested in the BULL position and especially the HIGH position at the peak. Analyze Macroeconomic News with USD Chart Yesterday we had CPI inflation data, important data to prepare for the September FOMC meeting next week. What are the data announced yesterday? - At a glance, we have good data for USD, when one index is higher than expected: 0.3 > 0.2 - But looking closely, we have conflicting data when a 3-star CPI index has lower actual data than before: 2.5 < 2.9 ==> However, USD still increased and maintained a higher mark in the current week. If combined with last week's NONFARM news, we have a rising price channel forming for the USD. ==> But because the CPI data is not standard, I predict that the USD cannot break to the top of 102. Instead, it only sideways around 101.5 and 101.9 SPDR Gold Trust Analysis 2 consecutive days this week, also the first transaction in September. SPDR Gold Trust continues to increase its gold reserves as GOLD continues to increase in price. Comparing the SPDR and GOLD charts during the US session, we see that the trading volume is at the end of the session and at high prices. ==> Shows that SPDR is still increasing reserves at a high level Gold Strength Analysis GoldStrength chart compares to Gold. GoldStrength is the valuation of Gold in many gold markets in many countries. This is also the reason why we can see GoldStrength has a bullish breakout structure before GOLD. Because countries are in the process of cutting interest rates, gold prices in countries such as EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, USD, .... are increasing due to weakening local currencies. That's why Gold and USD can increase in phase. => Gold Strength had breakthroughs earlier than current Gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
After CPI, focus on PPI and GOLD towards targetOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading recovered after falling in yesterday's trading session due to the impact of US data, but these impacts will not be too negative for gold's uptrend in terms of both fundamental and technical aspects. . The US CPI report creates obstacles for the Fed's ability to cut interest rates by 50bps • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month in August, in line with market expectations. • US CPI in August increased by 2.5% over the same period last year, decreasing for the 5th consecutive month, in line with market expectations and lower than the previous level of 2.9%. • However, it is worth noting that core CPI in the United States increased 0.3% month-on-month in August, the largest increase in 4 months and a higher increase than the expected increase of 0.2%. . (Typically the core inflation rate reflects underlying inflation better than the overall CPI). • US core CPI increased 3.2% year-on-year in August, in line with forecasts. Higher-than-expected US core inflation data will become an issue for the Federal Reserve over the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in the next FOMC. The focus now is on monthly core CPI data, which tends to raise concerns about persistent inflation. This could completely cause the FOMC to appear in the near future to oppose a strong interest rate cut, or no 50bps cut. According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, markets now assess an 87% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, compared with a 71% chance before the CPI data was released. This metaphor will change over time, especially after data is released, describing how market sentiment is leaning towards the Fed's interest rates. Markets will now focus on the release of the US producer price index and initial jobless claims today (Thursday). Basically, as we have sent to readers throughout recent publications, even if the impact of the data is not good, gold will still receive support from monetary policy, because the Fed will have to start the cycle. interest rate cut period. Some readers have asked, how much will gold increase and when will it increase? I certainly will not be able to answer this question. But it can be easily seen that gold will still have conditions to increase until the Fed stops reducing interest rates, and when the Fed stops reducing interest rates, I don't know anymore because I have some friends in the US but don't. Who is Jerome Powell? Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold corrected downward in yesterday's trading session and received support from the support confluence area noticed by readers at EMA21 and the lower edge of the price channel and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, It has recovered and continued its short-term uptrend. The target level and short-term upside structure are unchanged with a target of $2,531 in the short term, more than $2,544 to set a new all-time high. The relative strength index RSI is pointing up, still quite far from the overbought level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead. During the day, gold's uptrend will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2546 - 2544⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2550 →Take Profit 1 2539 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2534 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2489 - 2491⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2485 →Take Profit 1 2496 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2501
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
CPI data focus, GOLD targets price increaseOANDA:XAUUSD Break above $2,500 and stabilize above this key raw price, which is beneficial to the uptrend and has been the target level that has been of interest to readers over the past several weeks. This trading day, notable is the US CPI data today and the European Central Bank policy meeting tomorrow. Today (Wednesday), the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August will be released. This will be the last important macro data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September. Whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points may depend on this . Surveys show that the US annual core CPI growth rate in August is expected to decline from 2.9% to 2.6%, while the annual core CPI growth rate is expected to maintain at 3.2%. If CPI increases from last month, US Treasury yields could rise again, putting gold under some pressure. On the other hand, if the data is at or below market expectations, it will cause the US Dollar to continue to sell off, helping gold move higher. Unless CPI is much higher than expected, the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. If month-over-month CPI growth is lower than expected, a 50 basis point cut is possible. will happen. Geopolitical risks have a new point Israel may have 'accidentally killed' US activists in attack on Palestinian camp, leaving 19 dead. Israel's military said Tuesday that a U.S. activist killed in the West Bank last week may have been shot "indirectly and unintentionally" by Israeli soldiers, a move that drew strong condemnation from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken strong. Israel said it has opened a criminal investigation into the murder of 26-year-old Seattle activist Aysenur Ezgi Eygi. Blinken condemned the deadly shooting when asked about it at a news conference in London and said the United States would make clear to allies that such behavior was "unacceptable." According to AP News, Palestinian officials said Israel attacked a crowded Palestinian camp in the Gaza Strip early Tuesday morning local time, killing at least 19 people and injuring 60 others. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that Ukraine carried out its largest drone attack to date in the Moscow region on Tuesday, killing at least one person and destroying dozens of homes and businesses. forcing about 50 flights to be diverted from airports around Moscow. Obviously, geopolitical risks are still present, and every time the market is quiet it appears as a huge supportive force for gold prices. Therefore, considering the current geopolitical context, gold is always supported, because gold is always the leading safe haven asset whenever risks appear in the market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues its uptrend with the previous two consecutive days of gains from the key near-term support area that has been presented to readers over the past several periods, at the EMA21 level confluence with the lower edge of the price channel and 0.786% Fibonacci Extension level. On the other hand, the horizontal support level at 2,484 USD is also a reliable short-term support level for the uptrend. There is not much change in the upward structure of gold prices, the multi-week target levels continue to be fixed at 2,531 USD in the short term and more at 2,544 USD. The relative strength index RSI is also bent upward with a pretty good slope, this is a positive signal depicting the wide room for price growth ahead. During the day, the rising prospect of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2546 - 2544⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2550 →Take Profit 1 2539 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2534 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2495 - 2497⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2491 →Take Profit 1 2503 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2508
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers, pay attention to US CPI and PPIOANDA:XAUUSD recovered and increased in the early part of the week, following both the fundamental and technical trends sent to readers in weekly publications and publications throughout the past time. This week the market is still waiting for the US inflation report to further evaluate the interest rate direction of the US Federal Reserve. Investors will now focus on US consumer price (CPI) data for August on Wednesday and producer price index (PPI) on Thursday. If inflation data is much weaker than expected and raises expectations for a 50 basis point cut, gold prices will have enough fundamental momentum to aim for a new all-time record. But even if the market agrees to cut 25 basis points, gold prices will not decrease significantly because the Fed will definitely cut interest rates this September. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, which creates momentum for gold prices to recover According to Agence France-Presse, Israel's airstrike on central Syria on September 8, local time, killed at least 14 people. According to Iranian media reported on September 8 local time, regarding the death of Hamas leader Haniyeh in the attack in Tehran, Commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Hossein Salami said that day. Iran will certainly not let Israel carry out its evil actions. He reiterated that Iran's retaliatory measures will be very different. Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, the capital of Iran, on July 31. Hamas and Iran determined that the assassination was carried out by Israel and Iran firmly vowed to retaliate. Israel has so far neither acknowledged nor denied Haniyeh's assassination. Gold is a haven asset that is sensitive to geopolitical risks, so any new points that occur are a significant support for gold prices. Gold ETFs increased their net gold holdings for the fourth consecutive month • Gold ETFs increased their net gold holdings for the fourth consecutive month and funds in all regions saw net gold inflows, with Western funds leading the gains. Globally, gold ETF holdings increased by 28.5 tons of gold in August. • According to the World Gold Council (WGC), strong movements in gold prices have led to the exercise of at-the-money call options on major gold ETFs, generating large capital inflows at expiration. European funds had net inflows of 7.9 tons of gold, amounting to $362 million, with Swiss and British funds leading the increase, and the eurozone and safe-haven buying driving push gold prices up. “Inflows related to foreign exchange hedging products have been significant, especially in Switzerland, against the backdrop of local currency appreciation against the US dollar,” the World Gold Council said. . • The amount of gold flowing into Asian funds slowed down but still maintained positive growth for 18 consecutive months, reaching 0.3 tons. India continues to lead gold capital flows into the region and reported its strongest month since April 2019. The recent reduction in import duties has boosted the Indian gold market. Japan also reported significant capital inflows for the sixth consecutive month. • Funds in other regions increased their holdings by 3.2 tons and gold holdings in the Australian ETF increased for three consecutive months. Gold flows into ETFs could have a significant impact on global gold markets by boosting overall demand. ETFs are a convenient way for investors to invest in the gold market, but owning an ETF also has many differences from holding physical gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has had significant downward corrections, the recovery from the technical level of 2,484 USD to above the original price of 2,500 USD is positive signals for the uptrend. In the short term, gold tends to increase with the price channel as the short-term trend and the nearest support is noticed at the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As long as gold remains above the 0.786% trend Fibonacci extension, it still has enough upside prospects with a recent target at $2,531 in the short term and more than $2,544. During the day, gold's uptrend will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,503 – 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2517⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2523 →Take Profit 1 2512 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2507 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2471 - 2473⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2467 →Take Profit 1 2478 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2483
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Inflation data is the focus next week, GOLD closes above supportOANDA:XAUUSD fell on Friday (September 6), after closing in on a record hit earlier in the session after mixed US jobs data raised concerns about the scale of interest rate cuts in the decision. Federal Reserve decision later this month. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 in August, compared with estimates of 160,000. The July figure was also adjusted down to 89,000. However, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations but down from 4.3% the previous month. The gold market's central question is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points on September 18. Interest rate reduction is almost certain. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month and a 30% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. Some notable comments from influential officials in the US Federal Reserve • New York Fed President John Williams said lowering interest rates as quickly as possible will help keep the job market in balance. • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also said “the time is right” for the US central bank to begin a series of interest rate cuts, adding that he is willing to accept the scale and pace of cuts reduce. The upcoming US CPI report next week will provide a trend impact on gold prices. This is the final inflation report before the Fed's September 17-18 policy meeting and it will impact the size and pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The Fed's path to cutting interest rates is a very important factor. Once the market prices in a path of rate cuts at a faster pace over a longer period of time, gold will continue to rebound over the longer term. Economic data to watch next week Wednesday: US consumer price index (CPI). Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, US PPI, US weekly unemployment claims Friday: University of Michigan preliminary consumer confidence index Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold fell in the last trading session last week, in general the short, medium and long-term uptrend is still not much affected. Gold remains bullish in the short term with previous targets at $2,531 – $2,544 as long as it remains above EMA21 and within the trend price channel. Once gold rises back above the 0.786% fibonacci extension it will be eligible to continue rising and the weekly close above the $2,484 technical level is also a positive technical signal. The downward relative strength index is close to reaching the 50 level. The 50 level is considered a support if the RSI is above this level and this is also a signal that the downside space is no longer wide ahead. In the immediate future, the technical trend of gold prices is still leaning towards the possibility of an increase with notable levels being listed as follows. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503 – 2,531USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2509 - 2507⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2513 →Take Profit 1 2502 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2497 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2481 - 2483⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2477 →Take Profit 1 2488 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2493
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1