GOLD → Consolidation after the fall. Trading inside the rangeFX:XAUUSD is forming consolidation in a new bearish plane after a strong fall on Wednesday. The emphasis is on 2622 - 2581. The fundamental background is negative and technically the price is testing the lows.
On Wednesday, the Fed adopted a more conservative approach to monetary policy, laying down only 2 rate cuts in 2025, which generally had a negative impact on the whole market except for the dollar, which is breaking through local highs.
Today traders await the release of the PCE, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Any surprise in the PCE data or an escalation of political uncertainty could push metal prices up.
From a technical point of view, the gold market remains in the previously mentioned consolidation, and prices fluctuate in wide ranges, which is generally logical for the end of the calendar year: reduced liquidity and increased volatility...
Resistance levels: 2616, 2622
Support levels: 2589, 2581, 2560
Since the price is inside the consolidation, it is worth considering trading from the boundaries of this range. In the long term, I expect a retest of the key resistance 2616-2622 in the form of a false breakdown and a fall towards local lows
Regards R. Linda!
GC1! (Gold Futures)
GOLD → Interest rates are down, but why is gold falling?FX:XAUUSD falls to 2581. Yesterday's news had a negative impact on the market and it's not about rate cuts. Technically the price confirms the bearish nature of the market.
The main reason for the decline in gold prices is the Federal Reserve's caution about lowering interest rates amid the latest economic data. The US central bank lowered the interest rate by 0.25% to the range of 4.25%-4.50% as expected, but for the next year it forecasts 2 rate cuts, which is much less than expected.
The Fed's hawkishness has played its role: the dollar is rising, markets are falling.
Today all eyes are on GDP and initial jobless claims.
Technically, the price is out of the global channel, breaking the support, gold updates the low to 2581.
Resistance levels: 2620, 2630, 2636
Support levels: 2616, 2612, 2603
After updating the low, a retest of the previously broken channel boundary and imbalance zones is formed. False breakdown of key resistance, for example 2620 or 2630 and subsequent consolidation of the price below these zones may lead to further decline.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD: Assessing Recent Market Shifts and Future OutlookFollowing a significant drop triggered by the recent USD economic news, gold prices have begun an intraday recovery from a one-month low of approximately $2,602 as I write this article. The global risk sentiment has notably deteriorated in response to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance announced on Wednesday. Geopolitical uncertainties and concerns regarding trade conflicts have also contributed to heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
From a technical perspective, the bearish momentum does not appear to be over. There exists the possibility that gold prices could experience a pullback, potentially retesting a previous demand zone that may provide some support.
Furthermore, the Fed’s indication to decelerate the pace of interest rate cuts has resulted in rising yields on US Treasury bonds, which typically strengthens the US dollar. This dynamic may serve to limit any further upward movement for gold, which does not yield interest, making it less attractive in comparison to interest-bearing assets. As a result, traders with bullish positions should exercise caution as the market navigates these complex influences.
Previous Forecast :
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Weekly Forex Forecast: GOLD & SILVER Are Bearish! SELL Them!This forecast is for the week of DEC. 16 - 20th.
Gold and Silver are both bearish, after raiding the buy side liquidity. Silver is "heavier" than GOLD, so it would be my preferred asset to sell! There is support for lower prices, and no real support for higher prices currently.
Seems like a no brainer.
Wait for a pullback to the -FVG and look for a proper sell setup, my friends.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD: Technical Trends and Fed Meeting Impact AheadGold remains relatively stable, hovering around $2,644 on Wednesday as I draft this article. This follows a rebound from a one-week low reached on Tuesday. The precious metal is currently under some pressure as investors anticipate the results of the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year.
From a technical standpoint, gold has already tested a significant daily demand zone, subsequently retreating from a high of $2,720. Now, the metal appears poised for a potential bearish trend as the US dollar continues to gain strength. Retail traders are predominantly holding long positions, whereas commercial traders seem to be reducing their long exposure, which could suggest a shift in market sentiment.
Looking ahead, the upcoming economic data from the US, including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today and the unemployment claims report tomorrow, could provide further support to the dollar. If these reports indicate stronger economic conditions, it may exacerbate a bearish trend for gold prices.
As the market assesses the Fed's policy direction and its implications for interest rates and the dollar, gold will likely remain on the defensive. Investors should monitor these developments closely, as they could significantly influence gold's price movements in the near term. The combination of potential dollar strength and a shift in positioning among traders adds to the likelihood of continued bearish pressure on gold.
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GOLD recovered quite strongly, falling after FOMCOn the Asian market today (Thursday, December 19), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading recovered strongly after a sharp decline in the previous trading day. Gold price reached its highest level at the time of writing at 2,618 USD/ounce, an increase of nearly 30 USD during the day.
The market will next receive US economic data, including final third-quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims.
Market attention will then turn to Friday's release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which will boost the U.S.'s copper performance. US Dollar and gold in the short term.
FOMC
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected and predicted less policy easing in 2025. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the threshold for the next rate cut could be higher, which sent the US Dollar and US Treasury yields soaring, while at the same time, Gold fell more than 2% to a one-month low in trading on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates for a third straight time on Wednesday, but lowered their forecast for the number of rate cuts next year, signaling they are increasingly cautious about being able to reduce spending. How quickly does the loan cost?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 on Wednesday to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against, in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged.
In the FOMC policy statement, Fed officials noted that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. Labor market conditions have generally eased since the beginning of this year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low. Inflation has made progress toward the committee's 2% target but remains high.
The new Dotplot chart shows some officials expect fewer interest rate cuts next year than they estimated just a few months ago. Fed officials currently expect the benchmark interest rate to be between 3.75% - 4% by the end of 2025, which, according to the median estimate, would mean two rate cuts of 25 points each. basic.
Jerome Powell
The Fed will cut interest rates only twice next year amid rising inflation, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, a forecast consistent with Trump's wait-and-see approach when he returned to the White House in January.
Powell said Fed policymakers want to see more progress in reducing inflation when considering future rate-cutting strategies.
US federal funds rate futures have reflected that the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at its policy meeting on January 28-29 next year.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Thus, gold has enough conditions to decrease in price after falling below the 0.618% Fibonacci level and bringing price activity back below the EMA21 moving average, with a sudden impact from fundamental factors.
In the short term, although gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,591, which was the bearish target noted by previous readers, it could still continue to decline further with a target around $2,538. . When the Relative Strength Index dropped below the 50 mark and was quite far from the oversold area, it showed that there is still plenty of room for price decline ahead.
During the day, gold price increases as long as they do not surpass the 0.618% Fibonacci level and EMA21 should only be considered short-term recovery.
Along with that, the downward trend in gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD
Resistance: 2,624 – 2,634USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2635 - 2633⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2639
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2623
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2549 - 2551⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2546
→Take Profit 1 2556
↨
→Take Profit 2 2561
Gold Futures Breakdown: Bearish Momentum ConfirmedGold Futures on the 30-minute chart have confirmed a strong bearish trend after breaking below key support levels. The price failed to hold near the Zone Identifier levels (2,655.9) and experienced a sharp decline following two consecutive sell signals. The breakdown below the moving average further strengthens the bearish outlook. Traders could look for short opportunities on pullbacks, targeting the next support zone near 2,600 while managing risk with stops above 2,660. This setup highlights significant selling momentum and a potential continuation of the downtrend.
XAUUSD: Channel Up bottom buy opportunity.XAUUSD is marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 43.110, MACD = -4.500, ADX = 23.016) as it is trading under the 1D MA50 and is approaching the 1D MA100. That was the trendline that contained the correction on November 14th at the bottom of the 8 month Channel Up and delivered a strong rebound. So far it seems that Gold is replicating the April-June accumulation phase. As long as the 1D MA100 holds again, we will be bullish, aiming for a strong rebound to the 2.0 Fibonacci level (TP = 2,825).
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GOLD → Ahead is the Fed and the rate decision. What to do?FX:XAUUSD tested strong support on Tuesday at 2633 before traders moved into a buying phase, hoping a possible rate cut would support their intentions
There is a 93% probability that the Fed may cut interest rates by 0.25%. But the thing to pay attention to here is the general backdrop - the Fed's stance. Hawkish hints about 2025 could have a much bigger impact than a rate cut, which is partially already factored in by the market.
Any hint of fewer rate cuts next year could be a growth driver for the dollar. Powell's comments play an important role in assessing the situation for next year against the backdrop of Trump's policies
Downside risks for gold are quite high due to the controversial situation in favor of the Fed's hawkish stance.
Technically, the emphasis is on the local channel. A price exit beyond 2658 or 2633 will be accompanied by a strong impulse.
Resistance levels: 2658, 2675
Support levels: 2645, 2633, 2620
The situation is very controversial and complicated, that's why several directions relative to the key zones are indicated on the chart.
Everything depends not only on the actual rate numbers, but also on the Fed comments, namely we are interested in the tone and stance for next year. Recommendation - skip trading before the event and wait until volatility decreases to be able to adequately perceive the market position
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD is neutral on the most important event day of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery decreased under pressure from the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates increased sharply. Strong US retail sales data caused gold prices to plummet to a week low of 2,633 USD/ounce yesterday trading day. Today (Wednesday), markets will focus on the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year.
About economic data
US retail sales rose more than expected in November, fueling rising inflation data in recent months and suggesting the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in January next year.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in November, the highest growth rate since September and above the 0.6% gain. expected.
Retail sales data for the first two months of the year was revised upward and October data was revised from a monthly increase of 0.4% to 0.5%.
The most important event this trading week
On Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate resolution and summary of economic expectations. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Investors will need to pay close attention to the meeting statement and the press conference held by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell after the meeting to further assess future policy trends.
The Fed's updated economic forecasts and Dotplot charts are also the focus of market attention as they could reshape expectations about the trajectory of interest rates in 2025 and 2026.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. What Powell "breathes" out will create big fluctuations in the market.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool" shows traders see a 95.4% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Additionally, investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points by 2025.
So the question is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market expects. Because of Trump's victory, the market will have to reassess the Fed's interest rate expectations, and may need to be more cautious about further interest rate cuts at this time.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold attempted to recover after testing the 0.618% Fibonacci level, a position that readers noticed in the previous issue.
Temporarily, the trend of gold prices is noticed by the price channel, however the position is quite neutral with price activity around EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index also sticking around 50.
Perhaps, the technical chart needs a sudden impact to create a trend, and considering the current position, gold could increase in price if it breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level then the target level is about 2,676USD In the short term, more than $2,693.
On the other hand, if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement support level, it could open a new bearish cycle with price activity returning to the price channel and the target then being around 2,591USD in the medium term.
During the day, the technical trend is neutral and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,603 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2684
→Take Profit 1 2673
↨
→Take Profit 2 2668
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2617
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633
GOLD → Manipulation ahead of a possible rate cutFX:XAUUSD is declining after a false breakout of 2658 (0.5 fibo). We can say that this is a manipulation before a possible growth. Technically gold has a neutral trend. The emphasis is on support.
Markets continue to consider the possibility that the Fed will lower interest rate by 0.25% on Wednesday. This could spark a bearish rally in the dollar, which would be favorable for gold, which is heading for support. But here we should also take into account the comments of the Fed, which based on economic data is beginning to question its decisions and change into a hawk. The suspension of the rate cut cycle in January may put pressure on the markets, including gold, but this problem is postponed until 2025. Today all eyes are on retail sales.
Technically, gold is flat and heading for strong support....
Resistance levels: 2646, 2658
Support levels: 2633, 2620, 2617
Price is heading towards support before the news. Manipulation before a possible rise? The probability is high :)
We are waiting for support retest, false breakdown and possible growth to the mentioned targets
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD stable, pay attention to data and upcoming eventsOn the Asian market on Tuesday (December 17), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable, gold price is currently around 2,651 USD/ounce and there are almost no significant fluctuations.
In the coming days, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will hold monetary policy meetings to decide on interest rates, while also hinting at what 2025 might hold.
The Fed is expected to cut base interest rates by 25 basis points. The change has long been priced in, meaning the focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or Dotplot chart, in which policymakers detail their expectations on inflation, growth, interest rates and employment. These will have a significant impact on the US Dollar.
CME's "Fed Tracker" shows traders see a 95.4% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.
Today (Tuesday), the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for November, which is expected to trigger market volatility during this trading day.
Surveys show U.S. retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% monthly in November, after rising 0.4% in October.
US retail sales data typically has a greater impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold.
If US retail sales data is stronger than expected, the US Dollar could strengthen, thus pushing gold prices back down; On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected retail sales report will stimulate a recovery in gold prices.
In addition, on the same day, the NAHB home price index in the US will be announced for December, which is expected to increase slightly to 47 from the previous value of 46.
In terms of technical structure, not much has changed so readers can review the previous weekly publication linked below.
In the coming time, the technical chart of gold prices will be noticed by some notable patterns as follows.
Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2684
→Take Profit 1 2673
↨
→Take Profit 2 2668
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2617
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633
GOLD → Correction before a possible fall FX:XAUUSD is moving into the correction phase amid last week's economic data. The price is returning to the channel and in general confirms the bearish character on the market.
Markets are ready for a 0.25% interest rate cut, but traders are waiting for hints on the Fed's stance: whether the Fed will continue to cut rates, go into a wait-and-see mode, or hint at a rate hike based on last week's economic data. Traders are eagerly awaiting the Fed's decision, which will be announced on December 18. The gold price is also receiving support from renewed tensions in the Middle East and political turmoil in South Korea.
Technically, after the false breakout of 2721 a deep correction is forging, which generally develops into a localized downtrend. The price is approaching the panic zone 2615-2600. At the Asian session a correction is forming and it is worth paying attention to the key resistance zones
Resistance levels: 2667, 2675, 2685
Support levels: 2646, 2633
The price is heading towards the imbalance zone within the correction. A quick approach and retest of resistance could trigger a rebound. Traders may enter the phase of profit taking before strong news
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD still at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up. Strong Buy.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a 1-year Channel Up since the October 02 2023 weekly bottom. When it makes a technical Higher High and then pulls back, the pattern's Bearish Legs tend to be quite prolonged but at the same time always supported by the 1D MA100 (red trend-line).
The current Bearish Leg bottomed on the 1D MA100 on the week of November 11 2024 and made a technical Higher Low. Based on the previous two Higher Lows, the price may continue to consolidate until the end of the year before it breaks out again upwards but with the current level being so close to the 1D MA100, it makes it already a technical buy opportunity.
All previous Bullish Legs hit at least the 2.5 Fibonacci extension from the Higher High - Higher Low and the strongest rise has been +22.50%.
As a result, we can target $3100 as the Channel's next Higher High, which would be a +22.50% rise from the November bottom but still below the 2.5 Fibonacci extension.
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GOLD corrects in 2 days, still has bullish conditions next weekOANDA:XAUUSD fell as the USD held steady at its highest level in more than 2 weeks. However, the market expects the Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates next week and gold prices still have conditions for a possible increase in price.
OANDA:XAUUSD has broken multiple record highs this year, supported by Fed monetary policy, strong central bank buying and safe-haven demand.
Traders currently assess a 96% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 17-18 meeting.
Focus will also be on Chairman Jerome Powell's comments as market participants analyze US monetary policy in 2025, especially given President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans , is very likely to add to inflation.
Central banks often keep interest rates high to curb inflation, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold.
Pay special attention to the upcoming Fed interest rate decision
The Fed's monetary policy statement next week could be the last major impact for gold this year outside of unforeseen geopolitical surprises.
Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision after a two-day policy meeting. The Fed is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed will also release a revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), known as a Dotplot chart.
In September, SEP showed that Fed officials' median forecast for the policy rate at the end of 2025 was 3.4%. If the 2025 interest rate forecast is revised downward, i.e. cutting interest rates by more than 100 basis points, it could have a direct negative impact on the Dollar and this would push gold prices higher.
Markets will also be closely watching comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. If Powell takes a cautious approach to further policy easing, emphasizing a gradual approach, the dollar is likely to remain strong as it remains supported by President-elect Donald Trump. On the other hand, the US Dollar will come under selling pressure if Powell expresses growing concerns about the cooling labor market and its potential negative impact on the growth outlook.
Data next week
Next Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the final revised data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter, and next Friday will release the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE).
The economic calendar needs attention next week
Monday: Empire State manufacturing survey, S&P flash PMI
Tuesday: US retail sales
Wednesday: Federal Reserve monetary policy decision
Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision; US weekly unemployment claims;
US Q3 GDP, Philly Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey, Existing Home Sales
Friday: Personal consumption expenditure index (PCE)
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold closed the week in a crucial position for upside as it still has bullish conditions.
Specifically, the daily chart still shows that gold prices maintain activity above EMA21 and above the technical level of 2,644 USD. Note to readers in the previous edition. In addition, the Relative Strength Index decreased but stayed above 50, which does not show any negative signals.
In the near term, if gold brings price activity back above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, it will have the conditions to recover more to the $2,676 level in the short term, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level and the original price point. 2,700 USD.
Overall, gold still has a bullish outlook. However, a negative situation is likely to appear once gold breaks below the 0.618% Fibonacci level because it will tend to retest the 0.786% Fibonacci level with a price point of 2,591USD. Therefore, open long positions will need to be protected when this situation occurs.
In the coming time, the technical chart of gold prices will be noticed by some notable patterns as follows.
Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2684
→Take Profit 1 2673
↨
→Take Profit 2 2668
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2617
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 16 - Dec 20]At the beginning of this week, OANDA:XAUUSD quite strongly from 2,627 USD/oz to 2,726 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,645 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,648 USD/oz.
The reason why international gold prices increased sharply in the first sessions of this week was because investors reacted to the fact that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) returned to buying 5 tons of gold in November after many months of temporarily stopping buying. reserve gold. Even with the six-month hiatus, the PBoC bought 34 tons of gold this year and remains one of the top central banks buying gold in 2024.
However, gold currently accounts for less than 6% of China's total foreign exchange reserves. This shows that the PBoC's room to continue buying gold reserves is still very large, especially when US-China tensions are increasingly escalating when President-elect Donald Trump threatens to impose very high tariffs on China.
However, after rising to 2,726 USD/oz earlier this week, gold prices once again fell sharply because US inflation remained persistent, affecting expectations of the FED's monetary easing cycle.
While the decision on FED monetary policy will receive more attention next Wednesday, the gold market will also receive important economic data that can impact the FED's monetary easing cycle, such as retail sales, revised third quarter GDP of the US...
📌Technically, the gold price still maintains an uptrend on the Daily technical chart, as the price is still above the EMA89 moving average. However, on the H4 chart, the movement of the moving average shows that the price is accumulating sideways, the resistance area to pay attention to is around the 2725 mark, while the important support zone is around the round resistance mark of 2600. In the coming week Many influential information can cause gold prices to fluctuate strongly beyond this sideways range.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2755
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2575
GOLD → False breakout and negative fundamental backgroundFX:XAUUSD is correcting after a false breakout of resistance. This is also supported by negative fundamentals. Will there be a pullback or will the decline continue?
Optimism over China's economic stimulus is waning amid growing fears of a trade war between the US and China. Expectations of a hawkish Fed interest rate next week helped boost the US dollar, leading to a corrective decline in the gold price.Markets now believe the Fed may send a hawkish signal by signaling a pause in January after PPI came in higher than expected
Technically gold is still inside the channel, consolidation continues. Focus on 2658-2660 support, below which there is a huge pool of liquidity that may not let the price down on the first try
Resistance levels: 2675, 2682, 2699
Support levels: 2658, 2636
From the support 2658 may form a correction from which will depend on the further development of events: if the correction will be small and the price will quickly return to 2658, it will increase the chances of support breakout and further fall, for example, to 2636. But, if gold can consolidate above 2682 and consolidate above the local high, the price may head for a retest of the high
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → False breakout of resistance. Is a correction coming?FX:XAUUSD on the background of CPI on Thursday passes into a rally and realization of consolidation. The price is testing the resistance of 2721 and forms a false breakout. Traders in anticipation of PPI
After the release of CPI, there is a 90% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% next week.
Gold hit a two-week high due to the Middle East, optimism over China's economic stimulus, CPI news.
PPI and weekly jobless claims data also remain in focus, which could provide new hints on further Fed policy easing and the direction of the US dollar ahead of next week's Fed meeting. Sentiment around the Fed and risk trends will continue to play a decisive role in gold price dynamics.
Technically, the price is in a global wide flat. A false breakdown of resistance is forming and a correction may form.
Resistance levels: 2721
Support levels: 2700, 2682
The retest did not allow the bulls to pass through the resistance. In the near future the price may test the nearest support and form a bullish correction from which further growth or fall will be initiated. We should also take into account today's news
Regards R. Linda!