GOLD DAILY SAY :break friday high is powerful buy signal to 1760as you know gold love fibo61% and 161% so we have 2 scenario
1-break low 1688 and crash to 1600 area : posibility 30%
2-break friday high 1730 and flyup to target : 1760...if it can break big trendline in 1760 can flyup more to 1870 area (fibo 61% weekly chart,,,zoomout chart ,see big green fibo in left)... posibility 70%
let see gold futures daily chart too and big banks open orders
so put buystop in yesterday high and sellstop in low is best idea and wait 7-10 day
we can sell only under red arrow after pinbar apear in 1h-4h-daily chart
DONT USE ICHIMOKU ON GOLD ...ITS NOT IMPORTANT ON GOLD ...I USE ITS DAILY CLOUD FOR DAX ONLY ON GOLD ONLY DRAW IMPORTANT TRENDLINE ..GOLD LOVE TO BREAK THENDLINES AND FLYUP/DOWN
what is important on gold trade?
1- SMA200 (simple moving 200) remove other moving
2-AC indicator accelator occilator on daily chart
3- draw very important trendline on daily then 4h+1h.....
4- FIBO 61-161%
5-when you buy you must must must put SL in last low ...for sell on high ...in gold break last high mean up trend 90% will start if you dont exit with SL you will margincall soon or late
goodluck
GC
GOLD 4 HOUR : dont pick sell until fibo 61% = 1760as predict last 3 days ago , gold going to start big up trend to 1870 (see blue fibo daily in left )
AC on daily chart turn green ...chexck it
if you cant pick buy with me ,,,wait buy pinbar comes on 1h -4h or daily chart
ONLY UNDER RED ARROW WE CAN PICK SELL AFTER PINBAR COMES
ALERT = technical say gold can fly up to 1870 in next days so be careful from sell,,,dont close buy sooner than 1760
SECRET of profit = new traders close profit posation soon but hold,wait for loss posations ,,,,pro traders reverse of this,they exit loss posation soon with SL and wait toooooooooooomuch for +profit posations (minimum 3 day , somthimes 3 month)
Gold 4 hour say : AC +stoch daily are green 1760 is up target 1let see gold futurtes exactly + double bottom pattern
if big news not come and low not break . gold going to start big + up trend to TARGET : 1877 !!!!!! butterfly pattern and daily chart fibo 50% is there
so strongly advice dont pick sell . only under red arrow after pinbar comes on 1h-4h-daily chart SL:pinbar high
wish you win
Gold 1 hour : my target is 1760 fibo 61%AC indicator in daily chart is green ....if low not break 99% big +up trend will start frist target is 1760 and 2nd target is 1860
let wait and see finaly price can break big red trendline ...then signal strongly is buy... if stupid Biden and Powel dont f<<k market !!!
Alert if low break gold can crash to 1600 so sellstop in low is good idea
if you have old buy put SL or hedge sellstop there.(never close it in low)..then wait gold crash and back to up + up trend appear
good luck ,market is in bad days ,it is range and zigzag
The primary trend remains bearish on GoldXAUUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1707.29 (stop at 1720.89)
The primary trend remains bearish. A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Horizontal resistance is seen at 1708.00. Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 1678.18 and 1670.00
Resistance: 1708.00 / 1800.00 / 1881.00
Support: 1677.00 / 1600.00 / 1586.00
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
SPY / SPX / ES - Shortened Week AheadAugust did not end well for Buyers. Rate Creep across the curve applied pronounced pressure.
RISK OFF is in trade across all Sectors within the X Complex.
TNX from a Rate perspective - Rate instability and lower rates?
At present, No. Bond VX is kicking up. It is however not damaging Banks as of yet, Financials are hanging
on... slightly.
Will the VIX Spike to 38 to 41? The ES would need to collapse to and through 3600, SPY clearly to new lows.
VVIX is seeing the out-of-control setup - Few Puts in SPY, Few participants in VIX Calls due to IV.
Prices sit at the most Pivotal area. Volimes are the main takeaway. Cumulative NYSE TICK took us
sideways into the Close. Is the selling slowing down... that will depend on whether we see compression
this week within a trading range.
Friday was a Trending Day. Can Buyers Create Balance here? It will require a SOH on the SELL SIDE.
Market Internals need to HOLD. Look below and fail is open as well.
11 of the past 19 September's ended up with 8 ending Down. The past 20 years have been highly volatile
and I find it a generational approach more relevant than the overall historical as HFT/ALGO Trading has
become dominant with increased Volatility - It's my approach this September.
Alladin will be extremely busy this Month - chalking up further gains for Blackrock. The Quarterly close
will provide important answers to a Trend in decline at present. It is somewhat overstretched on OSCs,
but Summation Indexes have more work to do. This can provide ever-increasing Volatility as we see the
VIX Curve pricing in expanding VX for several months.
VIX - % Contango
SEP M1 @ 3.90%
OCT M2 @ 1.80%
NOV M3 @ 0.37%
DEC M4 @ 3.30%
JAN M5 @ 0.25%
FEB M6 @ 0.82%
MAR @ Par with FEB
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Year to Date - August opened the Dunk Tank once Powell delivered his May FSR Objective affirmation
for Asset Prices and Interest Rate Forward Guidance.
Winners:
Energy + 30.10 %
Utilities + 5.64 %
Losers:
Consumer Non-Cyclical -6.55 %
Financial -10.81 %
Transportation -15.08 %
Basic Materials -15.26 %
Technology -31.79 %
Healthcare -26.92 %
Consumer Discretionary -26.06 %
Services -21.44 %
Capital Goods -20.45 %
Retail -18.52 %
A very brutal 2022 into the month of September - where Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes are
within poor Structure.
August SPY Monthly provided a very nasty inverted Hammer. Sellers stepped up in spades at the Highs
and Sold to the opening Print, and through the Opening Print - to close on lows.
September's opening print did not hold the lower Body Bar on Friday - a poor close to the week with
options settlement into the Cash Session.
Buyers were non-responsive at best. Sellers sold through on increasing volume for the 3rd consecutive
day.
September's big events are ahead - the 13th CPI. Powell will provide color commentary on the 21st.
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Last Month's Price action served to expand the range for Major Indices.
Monthly timeframes continue to hold Lower Highs, not a good look from the June Lows at present.
The 379.92 Level is the .382 and Pivotal for the Month of September, it is presently the initial implied
Lower Range for the SPY on the confirmed break and closing below the Trend Line Support.
SPY 50% resides at 349.12 - the opening to a larger and lower low - into the Gap Fill @ 338.50.
Obviously larger targets below on increased panic and further Selling.
Price is currently sitting on top of what was prior support.
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I have cautioned for some time, Rates were a distraction too far larger issues within the Global Economy.
Repeatedly.
There are 3 legs to this stool.
Forward EPS, which remains incredibly high based upon earnings projections and their required adjustment
too far lower expectations. These have been partially priced in after Powell dropped the Hammer. There is
more work to do there.
QT remains a recycling operation - in through the out door with the appearance of an aggressive FED - while
advancing CBDC via FED NOW/FED DIRECT at an increasing pace for Rollout. This and 41067 won't bode well
for Crypto IMHO. Simply adding to the avalanche of impending exits which can be triggered by any panic in
trade.
_________________________________________________________________________________________
After large declines for all Major Indices... we've never seen a real Flush down panic, not one.
This is a once in 100 years Bear Market and it will be difficult to navigate as the Algorithms are growing
increasingly predatory.
Be careful out there, reduce Size and be on guard for increasing VX in September.
Bearish Sentiments @ AAII are rising to 50.6% again. Stop runs on trailers and catching traders offsides
should be anticipated.
We will see if the breakdown hammers this lower or price can manage to consolidate in a larger range
this week - expanding to the downside but providing outsized squeezes based on the Gamma / Delta.
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A Break of 388.96 has the potential and higher probability of creating a massive flush down and panic move to the downside.
Price is currently sitting on top of DOM Support or what many refer to as a Volume Node, I'm old, Depth of Market (DOM) is my preferred nomenclature.
3 Weeks of selling favors the Sellers - expected moves will produce lower Highs in Trend. Daily DT is another large Lower Low.
The Daily TF is the confluence with the Trendline @ 390.85 - BREAKING THIS will get nasty.
Buyers will absolutely need to defend early this Week, 399.50 may limit the upside in the Range.
379 to 399.50 is the Larger Range this week.
408.25 breaks a Potential Bear Flag.
Sector Support appears to be a Risk OFF in ALL Sectors.
HYG will provide leading indications as will XLF - breakdowns here would be very NEGATIVE.
Can Buyers consolidate here... we will see.
Take care and be cautious - trade Safe, Lower highs in the XLK will provide entry into the Trend.
GOLD 4hour say : break red trendline will open door to 18001-when red trendline break dont fear pick buy + sellstop in low
2- above green arrow we must wait pinbar comes then buy
AC indicator : Accelerator oscillator on daily chart is green check AC on dqaily chart...if low not break it show 90% +up trend will come ...if price low break its buy signal will switch to sell
gooooood luck and be very patient
GOLD 4 HOUR SAY : if low not break it going to start +up trend1- i am going to put buystop in last high ...sellstop in low and 90% loojing for buy
note|: AC indicator on daily chart going to green ...this mean + up trend can start if low not break
2- when price reach near green or red arrow after PINBAR comes on 1hour or 4 hour or daily i will pick position too
ALERT : if low break, door will open for 1600 so put SL or hedge sellstop ...i will buy gold above 1600 for hold 30-40 day to next high
wish you win
2 technical indicators shows: bearish gold may fall to the fib level of 0.618, = 1450'sh
1- double top
2- head and shoulders and neckline
makes total sense are covid fear pumped gold to $2000, and now with the high-cost borrowing ... housing and gold would be affected in the next 6-10 months (probably march2023).
not a financial advisor just updating you guys regard the gold chart.
will be buying huge position if we ever saw $1450-1490 by 2023.
peace!
Gold 1hour say : downside move end ?all eye on 1727 support ...break 1733 big trendline can flyup gold to 1800 area
for pick buy wait pinbar comes on 1hour or 4hour or daily chart.... SL: pinbar low
under red arrow after pinbar ,we can sell
let see AC indicator on gold futures daily chart too ...it can turn green and start up trend if low not break
Medium term bias remains bearish on GoldXAUUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1737.82 (stop at 1750.19)
The medium term bias remains bearish. A higher correction is expected. Resistance is located at 1740.00 and should cap gains to this area. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 1710.37 and 1700.00
Resistance: 1740.00 / 1800.00 / 1880.00
Support: 1710.00 / 1600.00 / 1450.00
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'