GBPUSD SHORT on hawkish FEDDollar climbs on expectations of a still hawkish Fed
The dollar has been boosted by the release of forecast-smashing U.S. jobs figures, prompting U.S. Treasury yields to soar as a robust labor market coupled with stronger-than-expected print on the Fed’s preferred inflation index earlier in May pointed to the U.S. central bank keeping interest rates higher for longer.
The Fed meets next week and expectations of another rate increase are rising, particularly given the growing hopes the U.S. economy is headed for a 'soft landing' after Congress's approval last week of a debt ceiling deal that averts U.S. default.
The Fed enters its traditional blackout period this week, but there is more data to digest, including the ISM services PMI later Monday, which is expected to point to a still solid rate of expansion.
Bears on the prowl at resistance
GBP/USD started the week off by dropping below 1.24, approaching a two-month low of 1.2306 reached on May 25th, as investors perceive a narrowing interest rate gap between the US and the UK. However, the Pound recovered those losses on the back of the weaker US dollar and data that put the Fed back into the spotlight on a dovish tip.
Technically this leaves GBP/USD in no-man's-land, treading water at the top of a 100-pip box as follows:
The bias is therefore bearish while below the counter-trendline and with in-the-money longs a target for the bears for the sessions ahead. However, a break of the resistance around 1.2450 exposes 1.2500 resistance:1,23500
