Gbpjpyshort
GBPJPY GONNA BREAK? If GBPJPY breaks 179-180, we will have a chance to see it drop further down to the 170.
"GBP/USD Forecasted to Reach 1.3500 in 2024"In a recent note, the global FX head at Goldman Sachs has indicated that GBP/USD is poised to extend its upward momentum to reach 1.3500 in the coming year. Citing correlations with stocks and alleviated concerns about global recession, GBP exhibits a "positive and reliable relationship with higher stock prices."
The recent strength of the British pound is attributed, in part, to the broad weakening of the U.S. dollar. However, since early November, the pound has also demonstrated strength based on trade-weighted fundamentals, performing exceptionally well in a moderately volatile interest rate environment and amid rising stock prices. The outlook since November has been promising, and expectations are for further gains in the upcoming year. This is why Goldman Sachs believes that the British pound has considerable room for appreciation as the market embraces the 'soft landing' perspective.
Upcoming elections are likely to encourage additional fiscal support while easing trade tensions with the EU. Both factors are expected to contribute to domestic growth, mitigating the risk of a recession and bolstering the British pound.
As we anticipate the unfolding of 2024, the projections for GBP/USD remain optimistic, driven by a combination of global economic dynamics, domestic factors, and a supportive political landscape. Investors and traders alike will be closely watching these developments as they navigate the foreign exchange market in the coming year.
GBP / JPY shortInducive Price action but am looking for the short with a pull back and rejection following a 4h close or a break out and retest on a smaller time frame to look for the entry. Plus on a fundamental perspective japan is potentially looking to rate hike.
"GBP/USD Forecasted to Rise to 1.3500 in 2024"In a recent update, the global FX head at Goldman Sachs has predicted that GBP/USD is poised to extend its upward momentum to reach 1.3500 next year. Citing correlations with stocks and easing concerns about global recession, Goldman Sachs notes that GBP has a "reliable positive relationship with higher stock prices."
The recent surge in the British pound is partly attributed to the broad weakness of the US dollar. Since early November, the pound has also strengthened based on trade-weighted grounds, showcasing resilience in an environment of moderate interest rate volatility and rising stock prices. Goldman Sachs anticipates more of the same in the coming year, asserting that the British pound has ample room for appreciation as the market embraces the notion of a "soft landing."
The upcoming elections are likely to both encourage additional fiscal support and alleviate some trade conflicts with the EU. Both outcomes are expected to bolster domestic growth, mitigate the risk of recession, and further support the British pound.
As we approach 2024, the forecast for GBP/USD looks optimistic, driven by a combination of global economic factors and domestic political developments. Investors will be keenly observing the unfolding dynamics in the currency markets as the British pound aims for new heights against the US dollar.
GBPJPY - Long opportunity ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on GBPJPY.
Technical analysis: Here I expect price to go a little bit lower to take liquidity below equal lows and to fulfill the imbalance, after that I will look for a long position.
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GBP/USD Resilient Above 1.2800 Amidst Dollar WeaknessGBP/USD saw a slight uptick above 1.2800 in early European trading on Thursday, supported by the prolonged weakness of the US Dollar due to bets on the Fed's dovish stance. US unemployment benefit claims data was released in a relatively quiet market. The currency pair, currently trading just above 1.2700, may find technical buyer interest if it confirms this level as support. In such a case, 1.2750 and 1.2790-1.2800 serve as potential resistance levels. Failure to hold above 1.2700 could prompt support at 1.2660 (50-period SMA), 1.2630 (100-period SMA), and 1.2600 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). GBP/USD, influenced by broad USD selling pressure on Thursday, sought to recover losses, maintaining stability around 1.2700 as the market assessed the latest UK data on Friday.
GBPJPY: The Japanese Yen will likely be the most interesting The new governor of the BoJ, Kazuo Ueda, has not made drastic changes in monetary policy as expected, causing the Japanese yen to weaken against the USD in 2023.
Positive signs appeared in November when the USD/JPY pair fell and bond yields also fell, raising hopes that the BoJ was about to change policy.
The BoJ is expected to make an important policy decision next spring, based on the results of salary negotiations.
If the BoJ does not change policy as expected, the yen could continue to struggle in the first half of 2024.
Although the BoJ may change policy later, this uncertainty will cause the yen to fluctuate widely in the first half of next year.
In short, the prospects of the Japanese yen next year depend largely on the BoJ's decision after the salary negotiations. The lack of certainty could create major volatility in the Japanese currency market.
GBPUSD SELL ANALYSISHere on the 15Mins timeframe market was unable to move up and still making some correction at psychological level of 1.2700 so we axpecting short and targeting a profit at level of 1.2600
USD Volatility on Fed Rate Cut SpeculationThe US dollar grapples with challenges in gaining traction globally, impacted by recent indications of cooling inflation in the US. This trend raises expectations of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the coming year. In thin holiday trading, major currencies remain stable, with the yen holding near yearly highs, supported by expectations of the Bank of Japan shifting away from ultra-loose monetary policies.
Key Points:
Declining US inflation in November fuels expectations of a 2024 Fed rate cut, diminishing USD appeal.
BOJ Governor Ueda's comments on rising inflation stir speculation of policy changes, boosting the yen.
Global risk sentiment and broader economic trends may influence currency markets in the weeks ahead.
Looking Ahead:
USD fate depends on upcoming inflation data and Fed rhetoric in the new year.
Yen direction hinges on BOJ actions and hints regarding policy normalization.
Global risk sentiment will likely impact currency markets in the coming weeks.
Expectations and Analysis of GBP/USDForecasting GBP/USD, the British Pound against the US Dollar, based on performance on the daily chart below, indicates that it is still moving within an upward channel. Recent developments have been a response to signals from global central banks in their final meetings of 2023. However, the economic weakness in the UK continues to hinder a strong upward move of the British Pound against other currencies. Technically, the bullish side still needs to break through successive resistance levels at 1.2785 and 1.2850. To confirm control and ultimately advance towards the next psychological resistance level at 1.3000. On the other hand, returning to the support level at 1.2580 during the same timeframe will be crucial for the bearish side to gain control of the trend. Limited movements are expected today given the market conditions and the holiday season. Throughout this week, restricted movements are anticipated as investors are reluctant to exit the market during the holiday season, affecting liquidity.
#GBPJPY: 1500+ pips selling idea! Dear Traders,
+++jpy pairs will drop heavily once BOJ decides on their interest rate and monetary policies which will occur within a week. That data will hugely affect on all the pairs that are link with yen. With long term our aim we are expecting price to be at 165-170 price region.
Please remember this is swing idea and not intraday setup, we share to you so you can have a clear view on GBPJPY.
FX:JPYBASKET OANDA:GBPJPY
GBPJPY - SHORT GJ form a double Top and an expanding triangle (both continuation patterns) after breaking out of an ascending channel signalling a continuation of the bearish trend.
I missed the actual entry at the resistance zone but here I am going for a 1:3
GBPJPY top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Trade of the week: GBPJPY? Data emanating from Britain and Japan this week could mean that the GBPJPY is the currency to watch this week.
Japan's Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to announce its final interest rate decision of the year on Monday.
Expectations from the BoJ are a little uncertain, prompted by remarks from Governor Ueda. Among various statements, he noted that the management of monetary policy would become more challenging toward the year's end. However, some officials have tried to step back Ueda’s comments, and most analysts polled by Reuters anticipate that the central bank will maintain its current policy settings.
This uncertainty makes the yen a currency to closely monitor this week.
Moving to the UK, Wednesday will see the release of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Expectations suggest a cooling of the headline CPI to 4.4% from 4.6%, and a decrease in the core measure to 5.5% year-on-year from 5.7%.
One day later, attention returns to Japan for its inflation rate. Forecasts anticipate a decrease in the Core inflation to 2.5% in November, down from 2.9% in October.
GBPJPY Long Term Buying Trading IdeaHello Traders
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GBPJPY - Short IdeaWaterfall (and winter) is coming. GBP/JPY is capable to develop strong downtrend that exceed thousands of pips. The resistance line at 186.767 is the last strong resistance in the way.
GBPJPY: Reuters: The BOJ meeting next week is expected to have nThe latest Reuters poll on the Bank of Japan's outlook includes the following key points:
BoJ will end negative interest rates by 2024, 84% of economists said in their quarter-end forecast; 71% in the November poll and 54% in the October poll.
88% of economists think the BoJ will end yield curve control; 12% think the BoJ will adjust YCC again.
28 out of 42 economists say BoJ interest rates will rise to 0.00% or 0.10% by the end of the second quarter of 2024; Two people thought it was 0.25%.
SELL TRADE SETUP ON GBPJPYHey Traders,
Check out this technical analysis on GBPJPY.
GBPJPY is currently trading with bearish momentum by staying below the broken bullish trend line.
So anticipate a retest of the broken support level and consider entering SELL positions.
Keep a close eye on this; it could play out in either direction.
GBP/USD at 1.2550 Amid UK GDP and Fed DecisionGBP/USD exhibits a sideways trend as it braces for a slew of data releases from both the UK and the US, fluctuating around the 1.2550 level during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The currency pair experienced notable volatility in the previous session, influenced by employment data from the UK and inflation figures from the US. Closing below 1.2550 in the 4-hour chart could expose the next support level at 1.2510-1.2500 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest uptrend, psychological level) before 1.2450-1.2440 (50% Fibonacci retracement, 200-period SMA).
On the upside, 1.2600 (psychological level, 100-period SMA, 50-period SMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) is considered the first resistance level, followed by 1.2625 (static level) and 1.2700 (psychological level, static level). After rising to 1.2600 in the early European trading session on Tuesday, GBP/USD reversed course and dipped below 1.2550. US inflation data for November could trigger significant moves ahead of policy meetings by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE).
Annual wage inflation in the UK, measured by changes in Average Earnings including bonuses, sharply declined to 7.2% for the three months ending October from 8%. Average Earnings excluding bonuses increased by 7.3% in the same period, down from the previous 7.8%.
Although the BoE is anticipated to provide policy insights this week, soft wage inflation figures might encourage policymakers expressing concerns about robust wage growth, making it challenging to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
Reflecting the negative impact of this data on the British Pound, EUR/GBP has risen to the positive zone near 0.8600.
Towards the end of the day, market participants will closely monitor the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US. On a monthly basis, core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food prices, is forecasted to rise by 0.3%. A weaker-than-expected core inflation report could pose challenges for the USD in finding demand and assist GBP/USD in finding support in the latter half of the day. Conversely, results in line with or higher than analyst estimates may lead to further depreciation of this currency pair.
GBPJPY Correction Done, Bear Continues GBPJPY correction is almost, now is approaching 182.00. I expect GBPJPY to continue to drop further and given the recent bearish trend. Continuation is possible, and it could reach the weak low support at 180 again.
GBPJPY I Correction completed and more downside Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** GBPJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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