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Gbpchfanalysis

GBP/CHFThe British pound has broken down significantly during the last week, showing signs of weakness and “risk off trading.” The 1.25 level has been a bit of a magnet for price, and the previous three weeks had seen the market simply going back and forth. Now that we have busted through the little bit of support, I do think that it has done enough structural damage to the market that it is only a matter of time before we short again. Keep in mind that the Swiss franc of course is a safety currency, and there are plenty of reasons out there to think that the market is going to go looking towards safety.
Short
by SmoothJB
GBPCHF | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsPrice action has been consolidating right above the key level at Fr1.25 since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes) as indecision continues to grip the market. Like I stated in my last publication, the key level remains a very sensitive borderline where the probability of bullish and bearish momentum is almost of the same possibility. A significant engulfing candle, either way, could send the price all the way hence the need to have a critical observation coupled with parameters that will give a clue into what direction price is likely to move towards in the coming week(s). This being said, I still hold on to my previous perspective as I expect bears to come in any time soon! Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Channel | Reversal pattern (Breakdown) Observation: i. Following the bullish momentum that gripped the market since the 6th of December 2021, the Fr1.254 level has held price "resisted" since mid-January 2022 hereby revealing an underlying strength in favour of the sellers at this juncture in the market. ii. The momentum that guided price to higher highs in the last 2 months appears to be diminishing as buyers continue to find it difficult to push the price beyond Fr1.256. iii. After observing market structure since price hit Fr1.3000 in March last year, I noticed that price has been consolidating within a descending channel where the demand level is turning into a supplication area as we can see a successful breakdown of this level in October 2021. iv. In this regard, I shall be looking to take advantage of a bearish move anywhere below the key level @ Fr1.2500 with the hopes that the price continue to respect the boundary of the channel in the coming week(s). iv. However, considering the long-term bullish perspective and the significance of this juncture in the market; a significant breakout of the channel could render this narrative invalid as might actually be witnessing a retracement of the bullish momentum... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 400 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 12 to 25 days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
The week of 14 Feb 2022 GBPCHF – Risk 1 to get 5??The 200 DMA is said to be a good guide to a bullish/bearish bias and quite often it acts as a dynamic support/resistance. Not always, but often!! Together with the S/R zone around 1.2530 it held price on 3 occasions in the recent past on this pair. The market appears not to accept higher prices and several daily candles have been held in this zone. If they did succeed to break above, this was quickly reversed. Add to that the fact that the Friday rumor of imminent Russian attack on Ukraine saw a strengthening of JPY, CHF and to some extent, the USD, I remain bearish on this pair. However, nothing is ever 100% in trading and I note that the last rejection from the s/r zone (marked 2) was shallower than the previous (marked 1) and we do see a higher low. That is why we have a stop and hence the reminder of risk in the title of my post. So, what do I expect next week? The rumor of Friday came when the European markets had closed so we may see a gap. In that case, we have to wait for stability and re-evaluate the entry point. As at now, I think that a small retracement above the s/r level may happen before the bearish move is possible. I will look to take half position at market open and look to add the remaining if a pullback occurs. Stops have to be above the recent high around 1.2610. For target we could aim for 1.2300 and then just above the next major support at 1.2140. Having 2 positions with different targets does seem as the way to go. If you like my analysis, please give it a “thumbs up” and follow me to get immediate notifications. Always use sound money and risk management in all your trades.
Short
by Trading_Vista
GBPCHF | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up detailsWe witnessed over 200pips move in our direction since my last publication on this pair (see link below for reference purposes) and ...? Fr1.25400 area - Price is currently oscillating within a very sensitive borderline where the probability of bullish and bearish momentum is almost of the same possibility. A significant engulfing candle, either way, could send the price all the way hence the need to have a critical observation coupled with parameters that will give a clue into what direction price is likely to move towards in the coming week(s). Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Double Top) Observation: i. Following the bullish momentum that gripped the market since the 6th of December 2021, the Fr1.254 level has held price "resisted" since mid-January 2022 hereby revealing an underlying strength in favour of the sellers at this juncture in the market. ii. The line drawn under pivot lows reveals the prevailing direction of speed and price action in the last 10 days. iii. However, Buyers have found it difficult to continue the momentum as multiple rejections of Fr1.254 is preventing the price from soaring which puts a dent in my last prediction ( see link below for reference purposes). iv. If we go as far back as 2015, we will notice how the Fr1.254 area has been a major determinant of price as a break above or below normally sends price in the direction of the break (see weekly chart). v. Equipped with this information and observing how selling pressure has increased in the last 22 days ( between the 13th of Jan and last week trading session), my bias is slightly tilting towards shorting the Pound against the Swiss franc in the coming week(s). vi. Double Top: The appearance of an extremely bearish technical reversal pattern forming after price tested Fr1.23 area two consecutive times during last week trading session is giving more credibility to the bearish momentum suspected. vii. To also emphasize the strength of the selling pressure is the drop in demand zone from Fr1.245 to Fr1.242 in the space of 2 weeks. viii. With a Key level identified at Fr1.25, I shall be looking forward to a breakdown of this level which will also coincide with the breakdown of Bullish Trendline. So, what this means is that below Key level remains a comfortable area to short the Pound in the coming week(s). CAUTION: All this being said, should we see a significant breakout of Fr1.254 in the coming week(s) then we shall be reverting to the previous analysis supporting a bullish bias (see link below)... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 3 to 7days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
GBPCHF | Perspective for the new week The British Pound has been gaining momentum since the beginning of December 2021 against this Swiss Franc and price action in the last two weeks might be a retracement in favour of a Bullish momentum in the coming week(s). Tendency: Uptrend (Bulliish) Structure: Breakout | Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Double Bottom) Observation: i. Since the 6th of December 2021; the British pound recorded a 4.5% growth in value against the Swiss franc to suggest that a Bullish momentum is evolving. ii. Price appears to have found a bottom at Fr1.21 and have since been finding higher lows which culminated in a successful breakout of key level @ Fr1.23 in the latter part of December 2021. iii. Technically, the appearance of a pattern that describes a change in trend and a momentum reversal from prior leading price action at Fr1.21 appears to be confirmed as soon as we witnessed a successful breakout (Fr1.23) of the neckline which is also the key level. iv. Immediately price hit Fr1.26 area on the 11th of January 2021, we witnessed a downward spiral in price action which I presume to be a retracement of the breakout move (Impulse leg). v. Hoping to join a potential rally in the coming week(s) if price retests Neckline as I am expecting a price plunge into a new demand level (identified on the chart) in the early hours/days of the new week. vi. In this regard, I have identified zone around Fr1.235/1.22 for buying opportunity... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 350 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:5 Potential Duration: 12 to 20days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry