1:10 RR Sell Setup for GBPCHF Core Analysis Method: Smart Money Concepts
Based on the Smart Money Concepts methodology, the following analysis has been conducted:
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H4
Swing Structure:
The current swing structure is bearish with a perfect Break of Structure (BOS). Inducement has been taken, and the corrective swing move is almost complete.
A Breaker Block (BB) Point of Interest (POI) area shows weakness in the internal structure, making it a critical zone.
The POI BB & Fair Value Gap (FVG) are identified at the initial level of the Premier zone of the impulsive swing.
Support: The previous support has now become resistance after the breakout, making this area a key Change in Polarization (CIP).
Pattern:
🟢 Chart Patterns:
No significant chart patterns have formed to support this move yet. However, it’s important to wait and observe what happens when the price reaches the level.
🟢 Candle Patterns:
The "Inside: Narrow Range 4" pattern is intact. The breakout from this pattern will determine the next short or initial move.
Volume:
🟢 Significant volume was observed at the lowest level of the swing, but there was no volume during the corrective move. This lack of volume indicates a lack of interest from bulls in the current move. Most players are still interested in selling, as the bearish trend remains strong.
Momentum RSI:
🟢 The market is currently in a bearish to sideways zone. There is no sign of a range shift, but the RSI line has taken resistance at the 60 level multiple times, indicating selling momentum is still present.
Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 Contraction is fully in form, and after the breakout, the next move in volatility will be decided. Given the current bearish trend, another volatile bearish move is expected.
Strength ADX:
The ADX is currently neutral, indicating no clear strength dominance from either bulls or bears at this moment.
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐
This setup is rated as a 50/50 probability due to the neutral ADX and lack of supporting chart patterns, indicating a balanced risk.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ POI: Breaker Block
💡 Decision: Sell limit
🚀 Entry: 1.1172
✋ Stop loss: 1.1240
🎯 Take profit: 1.0507
😊 Risk to reward Ratio: 10 RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 10 days
SUMMARY:
This analysis suggests a cautious bearish setup with an entry at 1.1172, a stop loss at 1.1240, and a take profit target at 1.0507. The risk-to-reward ratio is 10:1, and the expected duration for the trade is around 10 days. The lack of volume during the corrective move, resistance at the RSI level, and intact Narrow Range pattern suggest a probable continuation of the bearish trend. However, the setup carries a balanced risk due to the neutral ADX and lack of clear supporting patterns. Monitoring the price action as it reaches the POI is crucial for confirming the trade's viability.
