GAS
$CHINAH support should hold 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
!! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !!
This move will benefit $NIO and $BABA. They have been growing exponentially overseas in China and other countries. My team believes that the Chinese will continue to stimulate their economy financially in order to reverse the damages caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns.
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Nat gas back to the 5'sFirst wave looks finished and now the C part of the ABC looks like it has started. Expect a swift move down to 5.50 (lower weekly BB area), but I think it would be a long term buy from there. Keep in mind however, there is steep monthly bear divergence now on this chart and the possibility that this is a long term top must be kept in mind. Either way, 5.50 should act as support in both cases.
Energy Natural gas idea (15/09/2022)Natural gas during the day.
The correction in wave 2 may be over, as the rise in the third wave has already started, and it may target a new level above 10.01, but this rise depends on trading remaining above the bottom of 7.532 as well, if trading remains above the bottom of 7.761, we may see an increase in prices.
$AERC back in after selling the top 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
My team entered interior air space purification company Aeroclean Technologies $AERC today at $10.60 per share. Last time we entered we didn't intend for it be a tradingview trade, but we ended up walking away with a 20.9% gain before it fell to its current share price. If $AERC starts running, we do not intend to hold it for very long. We would like to be out before Thursday.
OUR ENTRY: $10.60
STOP LOSS: $10
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Week Ahead: Gas demand weaker
* Oil Formed a descending Triangle. Giving more bearish confirmation of target of $60
* FED giving signs of another 75-point basis hike. Recession fears are bearish for oil
* Demand slows down worries due to China’s zero COVID policy and OPEC+ cutting production
* Energy Price Cap
oil gapped up from opening on September 4th. Extended 3% by September 5th. Then losing almost 10% of gains. Reaching the price of $90 on September 5th, and dropping to $81 on September 8th. Then ended the week with a 5% gain. Closing weekly at the lowest since January 17th starting week.
Crude oil inventories rose last week by 8.844 million. Indicating demand is weakening. It was expected inventories were to fall by just 250,000 barrels.
I am anticipating oil to gap down during opening today. I am waiting to see how it will react to this trend line if it is going to continue down. Broke out of the descending triangle. Looks like it came back up for the last touch
On Sunday, September 4, 2022, Russia announced the closure of its main gas supply pipeline to Europe. This spiked fears into the energy market. Both Natural gas and crude oil both gapped 1% before the closing of September 4th. Monday, September 5th the OPEC+ held a meeting. Production was cut by 100,000 barrels a day for the month of October. OPEC+ is already below meeting production. Supply fears pushed Oil up 5%. After oil digested the news it fell from $90 to about $81.14.
Concerns of sluggish global demand outweighed the warning of President Vladimir Putin about the potential withdrawal of oil form of Russian Energy. Also new COVID lockdowns in China. Chinese imports fell 9.8% in August. The OPEC+ cut was larger for Asia and Europe indicating weaker anticipated demand.
Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt all oil and gas supplies if price caps are imposed on Russian energy resources. Hours later EU proposed to cap Russian gas.
The OPEC+ cut was done due to the possibility of a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran. This deal is expected to release over 1 million BPD of supply into the market
$TPGTPG telecom LTD
Bullish Case
-Above the 2021 Yearly open. ( this is a weekly chart so need to view yearly chart to see 2021 YO)
-MACD Bull divergence
-MACD bullish crossover
-Above the bo line (Breakout line on daily)
Would like to see a pullback into the and below the breakout line to fake out all those who got long then starts the real breakout.
the FED meeting is on the 27th and anther rate hike while expected will drive another leg down in short term on Stonks imo.. watching closely.
Natural Gas | European Natural Gas Pipeline Closed IndefinitelyGazprom, the russian state-owned energy giant, cut indefinitely the flow of natural gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline into Germany citing an oil spill in a turbine.
This looks like the weaponization of energy flows by the russian authorities.
Russia will not restart gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions are lifted, official said.
My chart scenario is a triple top formation with short term price target for Natural Gas of $9.5.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Energy Natural gas idea (05/09/2022)Natural gas during the day. The correction in wave (2) may be over, as the rise in the third wave has already started, and it may target a new level above 9.78, but this rise depends on trading remaining above the bottom of 5.325 as well, if trading remains above the bottom of 7.530 we may witness an increase in prices.
Our current expectations are to continue the correction before rising again and ending wave 2
Energy Natural gas idea (01/09/2022)Natural gas during the day. The correction in wave (2) may be over, as the rise in the third wave has already started, and it may target a new above 9.78, But this height depends on trading remaining above the bottom of 5.325 as well, if trading remains above the bottom of 7.530, we may witness an increase in prices.
Our current expectation is to continue the correction before completing the rise again
Energy XLE idea (31/08/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range In addition to the XLE Energy Sector Index, it is expected to rise to target the third wave. Since prices are above the long-term support level of 70.59, the main support point at 65.48, at the moment, we expect a correction to the downside. Prices are below 85.23. We expect a correction in wave b.
$BTC short idea Plan and Trigger This is not a prediction this is a plan..
If this happens do this..
The plan here is IF BTC 1. breaks below PWO - Previous Week Open, 2.Breaks below rising Trendline, 3.Breaks below R2-H (Range 2 High(thats the trigger to go short with Targets marked on chart.
Target 1 = R1-L (Range 1 Low)
Target 2 = R2-Mid (Range 2 Mid)
Notice the inefficient and fast move up noted on the chart. these usually get filled so if we trade in to this candle range i suspect a fast down move to follow.
The Price of Freedom: NS2 pipeline cf German base energy pricesThe Nord Stream 2 runs through the Baltic Sea from the St Petersburg region (Russia) to Baltic Coast in north-east Germany. It can transport 55 billion cubic metres of gas per year from Russia to Germany, enough to power 26 million homes for a year. Europe's total consumption of Russian gas per year is approximately 200 billion cubic metres per year, which accounts for about 40% to 50% of Europe's energy consumption.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline completely bypasses Ukraine. Prior to the war Ukraine was earning approximately $1.2 billion per year in gas transit fees from Russia to the EU through its territory.
Construction of the pipeline began in 2016. In Jan 2019 US ambassador to Germany threatens sanctions on companies participating in Nordstream 2 construction. In December 2019 these sanctions are passed into law. Merkle labels these sanctions when they passed as US interference in EU internal affairs.
July 2020 NY Times article provides a good explanation of the tensions between the USA and Germany over the opening of the Nordstream 2 pipeline : www.nytimes.com
Pipeline construction was completed in September 2021, but Germany did not approve gas to start flowing.
In the same month, NATO and Ukraine conduct joint military exercises. In December 2021 Russia threatens military action in Ukraine.
Things escalated, as we all now know. Shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late Feb 2022, Germany (finally) suspends the Nordsteram 2 pipeline.
German energy base energy prices per megawatt hour have gone from 50 euro since the announcement of US sanctions on Nordstream 2 in 2019, to 150 euro in September 2021 when Ukraine and Nato conducted joint military exercises, to 300 euro after Germany announces in August in has no plans to open Nordstream 2.
Contract at the time of this writing is at 420 euro, up 8x since the US announced sanctions on Nordstream 2 in Dec 2019.
In April 2022 when it became clear to me that NATO was willing to put its populations under extreme energy duress and significant security duress to retaliate against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, I placed bets on unlisted US defense companies.
In retrospect, having caught up on the history of the Nordstream 2 pipeline conflict, with the US and Ukraine aligned against Russia and Germany caught in the middle, as well as the sheer scale of the EU's dependence on Russian gas, the cleaner bet would have been on German base energy prices.
The 12 month energy contract is actually trading at 1,000 euro. I.e. the 12 month spot / futures basis is telling us that even though prices are up 8x from Dec 2019, this is about to get far far worse.
The question now is how much pain can EU citizens bear before they say enough is enough and cut a deal with Russia. At the moment they are sustaining a huge amount of pain and and still holding up, they have probably surprised Russia (and themselves) with their willingness to bear the pain. However, winter is coming and it's not going to be pretty.
It's possible the EU is willing to (or has no choice but to) completely obliterate its economy to wean itself off from Russian gas rather than cut a deal with Russia. If that's the case we can expect energy prices to remain high, perhaps even pump further
At some point there will be enough incentive though for supply to flow from US, maybe Africa, and arrest the rise in prices.
This may be coupled with US aid to Europe to cover their gas bill as European allies ask for help in continuing the economic war. It would be plausible for big aid to be forthcoming as it would essentially be taxpayer money that would essentially flow to the US energy producers, and so far the tax base in the U.S. seems supportive of continuing the war on Russia.
Signs to look out for are signs that both EU and US electorates are tiring of the cost of waging this war. If these signs emerge as German baseline prices continue to rise, this might be a good time to place a short on energy prices.
Any signs of Germany agreeing to start gas flows through Nordstream 2 might also be a good opportunity to place a short
Of course, energy markets are highly efficient so my main concern with this strategy would be inside information or simply people closer to the national policy movements underway that might signal a fraying of resolve in maintaining the economic war on Russia, at least as it relates to energy.
Are gasoline prices heading back to 2.00 dollars a gallon? $ugaWholesale gasoline futures could be telling us that the driving demand is bad and just not there to support these high prices. War and geo politics is pushing Crude Oil prices up as well as the heating related products, but gasoline is trading on its own forces currently. With the rejection at around 4.00 a gallon, is the support here or are we destined to look for support lower?
Energy Natural gas idea (30/08/2022)Natural gas during the day. The correction in wave (2) may be over, as the rise in the third wave has already started, and it may target a new above 9.78, But this height depends on trading remaining above the bottom of 5.325 as well, if trading remains above the bottom of 7.530, we may witness an increase in prices.
Our current expectation is to continue the correction before completing the rise agen
KRP fed can only do so much with interest rates , this is supplyKRP is in a great position as a light weight royalty company that allows them to have all the benefits of higher oil prices with the protection of futures in the correct way.
very well managed and has been on the radar for a while
theory:
oil companies are in the best position right now between economy and business. they hold all the cards and dont have to do much to kep supply tight. fed raising rates does not help supply issues. it can help demand side but the rising interest rates on a supply issue are like a secondary knock on effect. not always super effective.
oil will remain high and because of that their cash flow will stay strong relative to the rest of the market. if market meltdown then model obviously shifts but if the wheels stay on , things look reallyyy good .
$20 has been a tough resistance to break , if that breaks this thing could rip .
not financial advice
NATURAL GAS Weekly ForecastNATURAL GAS Technical Analysis Chart Update
Time Frame - Daily
According to Long Time Frame #LTF we have BULLISH CHANNEL Pattern and it is Rejecting from the Upper Trend Line #UTL it can Follow Sell Trend because it Rejected the Bearish Trend with Strong Bearish Price Action
We have got ELLIOT WAVES as well in Long Time Frame #LTF it has Completed its Impulsive waves " 12345 " now it will Make Corrective waves " ABC " and Follow Sell Trend
In Shorter Time Frame #STF we have Rising Wedge we need to wait for the breakout of the Lower Trend Line #LTL and Retest then we can Enter in Sell
We have Strong Selling Divergence according to #RSI in Daily Time Frame #DTF