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Gapfill

Backtesting guide: Iterative steps. Gap fills example.1- Notice something, or read about it (patterns, rsi), and just go look. Lazy people will lose their money to those that put the hours in. Some efforts are actually required at some point. No avoiding the grind. No "assisted comfort" instant gratification in real life. 2- Starting backtesting. One has to actually know what works and how it works 3- Stick to it don't deviate or head goes boom Looks good, we are looking at both then * Oil was not as good technically Checking some GBP gaps in 2018. It could depend on the year, type of market, etc. Backtesting a different ticker it's fine have first step is just to gather info. Ok that's enough. You would need to go throught in my opinion at least a good 50 examples, we did 20 here, and then you would start deciding on some possible direction you want to go to (where to enter, set SL, what TGT), then go onto the next step, excel. 4- Set some at least vague rules and put these numbers in excel "With a RR of 1 tgt from open to close(-1)" => x% winrate "Opposite direction entering at close-1 with SL the gap*2 and tgt 2:1 (just making it up here)" => y% wr Is there to start with a profit factor of at least above C (maybe 1.2? your call)? Other stats: how far does it go against/with, then through more analysis "what was the trend", "did it fill half before filling me", etc think outside the box. etc.... 5- Improve/more backtest As you take trades or just keep backtesting you try to tweak it to get more out of it. As they say "do not try to make it too perfect". Overoptimising = cheating = losing. 6- Practice You have to actually participate in the market for real at some point and live through it all. Don't forget to log everything, and review your past operations. 7- Realize you're just accumulating knowledge and you are going to go discretionary anyway and then it's all about your own skill So get good.
Education
by MrRenev
2
TSLA bearish? - Stock market shows weakness!Hey there, like the post please and follow me here on TV, it really helps me out! All details are explained on the chart, so please take a closer look. I won't get into detail here. Very important will be the gaps drawn on the chart in my opinion. Most likely to be filled once TSLA breaks support! The line in the sand is $1000 which will very likely hold with ease. This scenario is only likely if the stock market as a whole shows weakness over the next few days and weeks. Tesla will of course neglect my technicals, if SPY and DJI show strength. There is the possibility to take a short now, since price is being rejected of the descending trendline on the top. You could also wait for another retest of the bottom support line, a break and a short on the retest of the trendline. Thank you and all the best. Cheers, Konrad
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by EnlightenedTrading
$IWM bear/bull caseBULL CASE Channel support looms. Big volatility down trend (RVX) - possible support of 29 in RVX from March breakout. If uptrend from 7/31 in channel continues: 166 would be fill of Feb gap down. ATH's come next at 171. Multi-week, channel upside goes to 185. BEAR CASE Bearish divergence on RSI, riding up on down volume. Multiple support levers that could get swept away in sell-off. Double top alive if bears capture ~154 in the near future. Early August gap needs filling down to 151. Mid June gap needs filling down to 142. Open to any thoughts/feedback. Mostly going through this exercise to force myself to be clear-eyed about risk reward.
AMEX:IWM
by somethingotherthansports
S&P - closed February's gap and now what?On 24 Feb 2020, the market gapped down and began a series of heart stopping down days that eventually brought us to the bottom one month later on 23 March. Then began a rather spectacular "V-shaped" recovery that finally closed this gap @ 3339 yesterday. All appeared well except that the market is now reversing lower today (right after closing gap yesterday). We do not know if this is just a minor correction or something bigger, ie whether economic reality be finally sinking in after the "disconnect" in the past few months? I'm not bearish yet thou I would be a little cautious for the time being while we get a clearer picture over the next few days. Disclaimer: This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance. Thank you.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Juliac
2
BYND Potential Gap FillBYND Time Frames - 5M + 1HR Today's bull run was consistent, closing @134.23. We're at a very crucial price point for GAP Range between 137 - 141s. During extended hours BYND continued it's bullish run into the low 137's. Opening over 137 and holding for tomorrow will be a good sign for a gap being filled to the 141's by the end of the week. Watch out for a possible rejection to bring us back towards today PM levels or the GAP below between 125.70s - 127s. I'm keeping a close eye on BYND tomorrow for a potential GAP fill/Rejection play going into ER. Personally, I wont be playing an ER play but the run up and post ER reaction will be a fun one. As we can see the last 5 ERs have had pretty one directional price reactions for at least another 1.5 days. Whether they beat or lose ER - we can confirm after the fact. Trade safe and set SL's.
NASDAQ:BYNDLong
by Kindredd
1
UPDATED: BYND (Potential) Gap FillToday's bull run was consistent, closing @134.23. We're at a very crucial price point for GAP Range between 137 - 141s. During extended hours BYND continued it's bullish run into the low 137's. Opening over 137 and holding for tomorrow will be a good sign for a gap being filled to the 141's by the end of the week. Watch out for a possible rejection to bring us back towards today PM levels or the GAP below between 125.70s - 127s. I'm keeping a close eye on BYND tomorrow for a potential GAP fill/Rejection play going into ER. Personally, I wont be playing an ER play but the run up and post ER reaction will be a fun one. As we can see the last 5 ERs have had pretty one directional price reactions for at least another 1.5 days. Whether they beat or lose ER - we can confirm after the fact. Trade safe and set SL's.
NASDAQ:BYNDLong
by Kindredd
3
Nearly into gap fill modeSPX on the weekly here. This has been a long time coming, that gap was left back in February. Flirted with getting into the gap last week and was rejected hard. Will we do it next week? I still think there is a meltup coming because the Fed hasn't used all that much of the money they have ready. My forecast is well past all time high before the election. Is S&P 4000 even possible? No matter what happens, that megaphone is something else isn't it? My play for this is 10/16 SPY 400c. They are ridiculously cheap because no one thinks this can happen. I'm several hundred contracts into this one and adding more on dips.
SP:SPXLong
by DogEars