Get started

Ganntheory

Gann Theory shows Bitcoin is worth remembering every December, BBITSTAMP:BTCUSD Many people proposed a target of US$100,000 at the time, Xiao Long pointed out whether Bitcoin would fall after a double-topped harmonious trading pattern, and we used technical analysis to analyse the recent Bitcoin crash. In Gann Theory and Cycle Analysis, we found the fixed cycle or Gann Turning Time of Bitcoin. In Gann's theory, time is the most important factor in trading. Gann's rule of timing is used to reveal the pattern of price reversals that occur. As you can see above, December is a memorable time of year for Bitcoin, dating back to the first time it reached over $1,000. By the following December, it had quickly dropped 80% to below $200 and reached a bear market bottom. Two years later, in December 2017, the price of Bitcoin topped out again, ending the bull market rally and starting another bear market. This was followed by another bear market until December 2018, and December 2019. As you can see above, December is a memorable time of year for Bitcoin. As you can see above, December is a memorable time for Bitcoin every year. After December 2020, Bitcoin bounced back again for a short period of time, before rising to all-time highs. In December 2021, Bitcoin is now in a double top position, so beware that December 2021 could be the top for Bitcoin. Using the Harmony Trading method, if it falls below $36,000, the other big support level is at $28,000. That is, if it falls below $36,000, it will more than confirm the wave of Bitcoin's decline. The trend in Bitcoin may be related to the Fed's tapering. In the last round of tapering, the Fed allowed some securities ($10 billion) to expire without renewal each quarter starting in October 2017, in $10 billion increments each quarter until the end of 2018. As you can see in the chart above, the last bitcoin peak was in December 2017 and then the bottom was around December 2018 and December 2019, which may be related to the Fed's tapering. The peak in December 2021 coincides with the US Fed's hawkish comments and the possibility of interest rate hikes. Xiao Long has said that inflation in the US has rarely been above 5% in the past, and that whenever inflation rises above 5%, the US Fed basically reacts very quickly and raises interest rates. The first cycle of rate hikes was from 1983.3 to 1984.8, when the benchmark rate was raised from 8.5% to 11.5%. Second: 1988.3-1989.5, with the base rate rising from 6.5% to 9.8125%. Third round: 1994.2-1995.2, with the benchmark rate rising from 3.25% to 6% Fourth round: 1999.6-2000.5, with the base rate increased from 4.75% to 6.5%. Fifth round of rate hikes from 2004.6-2006.7, with the base rate rising from 1% to 5.25%. Sixth round: 2015-2018, with the base rate rising from 0.25% to 2.5%. Therefore, as Xiao Long said, most people think that the US "has too much debt, so it dares not raise interest rates". In the past, inflation in the US was rarely above 5%, and whenever inflation rose above 5%, basically the US Federal Reserve would react very quickly and raise interest rates. The author's greatest worry is that the US will raise interest rates from 5-6% to 20% in a short period of time, just like the stagflation in 1970. As Xiao Long once said, the US stock market had a seven-year down cycle: -In 1966, the US went through a "credit crunch". In August of the same year, the US treasury market suffered a severe "liquidity crisis". -In 1973, seven years later, the world was hit by the "first oil crisis", which caused problems in the stock market and the economy, and the first stagflation. -Seven years later, in 1980, Wall Street forced the Hunt brothers to stop stockpiling silver, which allowed some banks and securities firms to avoid bankruptcy. -Black Monday in October 1987, when the Dow fell 22% in one day. -Seven years later, in 1994, the FED raised interest rates six times in a row, pushing rates from 3% to 6%, causing the most famous bond massacre in history. -Seven years later, in 2001, the Black Swan Incident of 9/11 triggered a global stock market crash and the US declared an emergency stock market closure from 9/11 to 9/14. The Dow Jones Industrial Index was killed at 8,883, down 7%, and the stock market fell by 14% in one week. The seven-year cycle came in 2008, when the financial tsunami saw Hong Kong and US stocks plunge. -In 2015, the Hong Kong and US stock markets crashed. -2022:? So 2022 will be a very critical year, a convergence of cycles, so keep an eye on this column. More on that next time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ericresearchgann
1
Seven Year cycle! US market crash in 2022When we study Gann's theory and, in addition to macro and economic, we will also study the cycle of the stock market, that is, the cycle. the bullishness of U.S. stocks in 2021 is still overwhelming. What will happen to the stock market in 2022, what will happen to the economy in 2022, and what will happen to U.S. stocks in 2022? The U.S. stock market in 2022 or up to the seven-year cycle will have the opportunity to retrace, many people have asked, then today we explain again. In Gann's theory, "seven" is a very important and mysterious number. Gann believes that "seven days", "seven weeks", "July", "seven years" may be the inner cycle of a certain stock. In the past, Xiao Long has successfully predicted the bull market in 2017, the bear market in 2018 and the Hong Kong stock market crash in 2021 by using the 30-year cycle and the 10-year cycle. Biblical term called “Shemitah’ has caught the market attention. Shemitah, the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, has several times in the past brought immense financial hardships to the world. U.S. stock valuations have been very expensive, Shiller P/E, or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) to see, the U.S. PE is already 38.77, is the second highest in history. But when to fall is the point. The economic cycle of U.S. stocks has a very obvious 7-year cycle. -In 1966, the United States experienced a "credit crunch". In August of the same year, the U.S. Treasury market suffered a severe "liquidity crisis. -In 1973, seven years later, the world suffered the "first oil crisis", with stock market and economic problems and the first stagflation. -Seven years later, in 1980, Wall Street forced the Hunt brothers to stop hoarding silver, which helped some banks and securities firms to avoid bankruptcy. -In October 1987, the Dow fell 22% in one day on "Black Monday". -Seven years later, in 1994, the FED raised interest rates six times in a row, and interest rates rose sharply from 3% to 6%, resulting in the most famous bond massacre in history. -Seven years later, in 2001, the Black Swan event of 9/11 triggered a severe setback in the global stock market, and the U.S. declared an emergency stock market closure from 9/11 to 9/14, but the market resumed on the 17th, the U.S. stocks still had a panic sale, the S&P 500 index opened at 1,092 points and closed almost at the low of 1,038 points, down 5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index was killed to 8,883 points, down 7%, and the stock market fell 14% in one week. The 7-year cycle came to 2008, the financial tsunami, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks plunged. -In 2015, Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks crash. -2022:? I would predict that in 2022, there may be a significant pullback in US stocks.
TVC:IXIC
by ericresearchgann
1
Using Gann theory to predict the recent trend of Nasdaq U.S. stocks have been on a tear in 2021, but have recently fallen back slightly, so how do we see the recent U.S. stock action using Gann's theory? Since the outbreak of the pandemic last March 2020, the U.S. has launched unlimited QE. total margin debt (Margin debt) borrowing has only increased. It has hit a record high. It accounts for almost 3.7% of total U.S. GDP. This is already more than the total amount of the dot-com bubble in 2000. In response, mainstream commentators and antipodeans alike have warned of systemic risk, warning that the 1929 crash may have been the worst in U.S. history. Mizuho Financial Group found that a large percentage of respondents intended to invest a portion of the U.S. stimulus money in stocks and bitcoin. Of the $380 billion in stimulus checks they interviewed, about 10.5% will fall into these asset classes, or $40 billion. According to the Bank of America report, the new inflows this year have not only pushed the stock market to new highs, but have also attracted new investors, not only older investors, but also a group of young retail investors. The report said, "The strong momentum of these young retail investors not only supported a strong rise in the stock market, but also prompted older investors to buy and hold, and to buy bond funds to achieve a balanced asset allocation. The large number of new investors entering the market is not good insight, First, we use linear regression channel analysis, which is a good way to identify potential key levels of future price action by plotting the normal distribution of trends. Statistically, linear regression analysis is the use of past data to predict future trends. Linear regression channels include five equilibrium lines for reference, namely the extreme optimism line (95% optimism), the over optimism line (75% optimism), the medium line (long term trend line), the over pessimism line (75% pessimism) and the extreme pessimism line (95% pessimism). We can see that by importing two decades of data, you can see the Nifty in an extremely optimistic situation. In Gann, the time is the most important. The longer the market takes to cross the top or fall below the bottom, the greater the rise or fall. It is always important to consider how long the market has been up from its extreme lows or down from its extreme highs. Usually, at the end of any market, the index either moves up to a new high or down to a slightly lower level and then stops because the time cycle has run out. Using the Gann cycle method, we found that U.S. stocks now have a cycle one month before and one month after October. But this is one of them, and there is a bigger one to come. ericresearchgann-us.blogspot.com
NASDAQ:NDAQ
by ericresearchgann
Introduction To Gann Theory | Gann Square From ScratchHello, traders! Today we gonna start one of the most complicated topics. Please pay as much attention as it possible and ask any questions you like. Gann technical analysis methods are a bit complicated because they are based on geometry, ancient mathematics, astrology, and astronomy. Popular technical methods like Gann Angles and the Master Charts are at Gann’s disposal. The Gann Square is also among the several powerful tools that Gann developed. How to use? It can be used in a variety of ways. One way is to start at the previous major pivot point (normally the end of the last 5 wave sequence) and draw it so that the 1 X 1 line follows the current market support areas to a good degree. Simply put, if you want to draw it from the higher high, the end should be at the previous lower low to follow the price cycles. And if you are drawing it from lower low, finish it at previous higher high. Another way is to highlight geometric formations that can forecast key support and resistance levels by counting forward from the all-time low or all-time high. Well, I understand the difficulty of the instrument. It's kinda difficult to use it from scratch. However, tomorrow I will elaborate this article with short analysis using this powerful tool. DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
BEducation
by Skyrexio
4