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GBP/CAD Pair in Pullback Mode: Assessing Bullish OpportunitiesThe GBP/CAD pair is currently experiencing a pullback phase following a notable reversal at the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. This retracement suggests a temporary correction in the price movement. However, there is potential for a new bullish impulse to emerge, which could propel the price towards the 1.6900 level. If this bullish momentum continues, the pair may eventually approach the resistance level at 1.69200. Considering these factors, traders are actively seeking a long setup in this market. The pullback presents an opportunity to enter a long position, anticipating a continuation of the upward trend. Traders will closely monitor price action and key technical indicators to confirm the strength of the bullish bias and assess the likelihood of the price reaching the target level of 1.6900. It's important to exercise caution and employ appropriate risk management strategies while trading in order to navigate potential market fluctuations and optimize trade outcomes.
Long
by DAY_PROFITS
2
EUR/JPY Reaches Two-Week High on ECB-BoJ Policy DivergenceFor the second consecutive day, EUR/JPY has scaled higher, reaching a two-week high on Tuesday. The ongoing upward move is supported by the policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), favoring bullish sentiment. Traders are now eagerly awaiting the upcoming ECB decision and BoJ meeting before making fresh directional bets. During the early European session, the EUR/JPY cross continues its positive momentum, extending the steady climb witnessed in the previous day. The spot prices surge to over the 150.70-150.75 region, marking a two-week high. The upward trajectory of the EUR/JPY cross is driven by the increasing expectations of further policy tightening by the ECB. The shared currency benefits from this sentiment, with ECB President Christine Lagarde suggesting the likelihood of additional interest rate hikes. She stated that there is no clear evidence of a peak in underlying inflation, aligning with recent hawkish remarks from several ECB policymakers. Despite a decrease in the headline Eurozone CPI to 6.1% in May, these factors indicate that the central bank still has room to raise borrowing costs. In contrast, the BoJ is expected to maintain its dovish stance to support the economy and ensure the sustainability of recent positive signs. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need to continue with ultra-loose monetary policy until durable wage growth accompanies price increases. Additionally, BoJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe recently expressed the overwhelming case for the continuation of ultra-easy monetary policy measures. These factors contribute to the boost in the EUR/JPY cross. However, concerns about a global economic slowdown and the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening to support the domestic currency could provide some support to the safe-haven JPY. Traders may exercise caution in placing aggressive bullish bets on the EUR/JPY cross and instead wait for the upcoming central bank events. The ECB decision on Thursday, followed by the BoJ meeting on Friday, pose significant risks. Nevertheless, considering the aforementioned fundamental backdrop, the path of least resistance for spot prices appears to be on the upside.
Long
by DAY_PROFITS
1
EUR/USD Slips as Investors Await US Jobs Report 1.06400 TargetEUR/USD slipped slightly lower after briefly touching the 1.0800 level on Thursday as investors adopted a cautious approach before the eagerly-awaited May jobs report from the US. This report carries significant weight as it has the potential to impact the market's assessment of the next interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The currency pair remains within a bearish channel, and our next target for EUR could be the support area around 1.06400. On Thursday, the financial markets continued to be influenced by dovish expectations surrounding the Fed, leading to downward pressure on US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD). The US Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the initial estimate of first-quarter Unit Labor Costs, lowering it from 6.3% to 4.2%. Additionally, Patrick Harker, President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, reiterated his belief that it is time for the central bank to take a pause in its monetary policy. The forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls in May is an increase of 190,000, following the better-than-expected rise of 253,000 recorded in April. The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise slightly from 3.4% to 3.5%, while the annual wage inflation, measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, is anticipated to remain steady at 4.4%. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the market currently assigns a 71.5% probability to the Fed maintaining the key rate at 5%-5.25% in June. This positioning suggests that if the labor market data confirms a pause in the Fed's tightening cycle at the upcoming meeting, the USD is likely to weaken further. To realize this scenario, a disappointing NFP figure at or below 150,000 and softer wage inflation data may be necessary. Conversely, if NFP shows a rise of 250,000 or more in May, investors could reconsider the possibility of another 25 basis points rate hike. In that case, the USD could strengthen, resulting in a bearish turn for EUR/USD. It is important to note that the Fed's blackout period will commence on Saturday, during which Fed policymakers may make statements to guide market expectations, potentially increasing volatility leading up to the weekend.
Short
by FOREXN1
13
Trade report of 25-5-2023Today's news from the US: USD Prelim GDP q/q Is now 1.3% Expectation 1.1% Was 1.1%. USD Unemployment Claims Is Now 229K Expectation 249K Was 225K. The GDP and claims are higher than expected and that is positive for the Dollar. The first is the value of all new goods and services and the second number: The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the past week. With the second number in particular, it is important to mention that the expectation was higher than what ultimately applied for a benefit. That means there is plenty of work. This may have consequences for the interest rate that the FED will soon set. This change directly affects Dollar pairs such as EURUSD. But it has an effect on Gold. Oil is also going short today but that's because of concerns about demand from China, while Russia's oil minister said next month's OPEC+ meeting is unlikely to end with further production cuts. The first is value-enhancing, but the second now prevails and makes sure oil goes short. Today we did the actions: #GBPAUD : something to pick up today. Our rating system has the following information: +3, or a buy recommendation after adding up all categories. First, let's take a look at what institutional traders are buying or selling. We can see that the GBP has a long percentage of 54.43% and we see that the AUD has a long percentage of 31.05%. This category gets a +1, as institutional traders prefer GBP. If we look at GBPAUD, we see that retailers are 13% long and 87% short. Currently, the GBPAUD gets a value of +1 in this category. If we look at seasonality, we get a score of +1. What this tells us is that based on historical data, this market tends to rise this month. Mind you, the next month it will be completely the other way. Trend measurement is based on the daily chart, using the 5, 8 and 21 exponential moving average. The more "aligned" they are, the stronger the trend up or down. In this case, we have a score of +2. Finally, let's look at the basics. GDP growth is favorable for the AUD, inflation is favorable for the AUD, unemployment is favorable for the AUD, and interest rates are favorable for the GBP. We have therefore placed a buy at 1.89620 with a target of 1.91540. We don't take much risk because there are also going to be CPI figures. These trades are now open: 05/23/2023 2:00 PM Buy SPOTCRUDE Open 73,75 sl 72 tp 75 05/24/2023 06:10 AM EURNZD Buy Open 1.75249 Sl 1.72333 Tp 1.77341 05/24/2023 07:17 AM EURAUD Buy Open 1.63893 sl 1.61944 tp 1.65432 05/24/2023 3:31 PM USDJPY Buy Open 139.139 sl 138.14 tp 140,36 05/25/2023 09:10 AM NZDCAD Sell Open 0.8266 sl 0.8315 tp 0.82385 05/25/2023 09:13 AM GBPAUD Buy Open 1.89619 sl 1.8824 tp 1.9099
by Probeleg