Get started

Futures

EURGBP increased at the beginning of the week but has reversedEURGBP rallied earlier in the week but reversed its course on Thursday after failing to clear trendline resistance at 0.8570, with prices dropping towards the 50-day simple moving average at 0.8550. The pair is likely to stabilize around current levels before mounting a comeback, but in the event of a breakdown, a dip towards 0.8520 and potentially 0.8500 could be around the corner. Alternatively, if bulls manage to reassert dominance and push the exchange rate higher, resistance emerges at 0.8570 as mentioned before. Breaking through this technical obstacle could set the stage for a surge toward the 200-day simple moving average near the 0.8600 handle.
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at key resistance after yesterday's recovery day. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5040 (major), 5032, 5020 (major) Major Supports: 4996 (major), 4959 (major), 4938 (major), 4903 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5057 (major), 5081 (major), 5102 (major), 5115 (major) Major Resistances: 5129 (major), 5141 (major), 5167 (major), 5186-90 (major) Trading Strategy The 5040 Battleground Continues to be critical. Observe for breakouts or breakdowns with close attention. Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5040 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5032 or on major supports (4959, 4938). Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5081 and particularly 5102 for shorting. A breakdown below 5020 could open up downside targets. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5040 zone is encouraging for bulls. Re-tests and quick recoveries signal buying strength. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5081/5102 zone for a sustained recovery attempt. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5057 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5020 triggers the downside move, likely targeting 4975 or lower. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 23rd, 2024 Economic Environment US GDP growth and the impact of interest rates on corporate America. IMF projections for global economic growth and inflation expectations. Bond market signals regarding Federal Reserve policy. Market Analysis Upcoming economic data releases: GDP estimate and key inflation measure. Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of earnings reports, economic data, and the critical battle at the 5040 resistance. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
GOLD spiked higher, falling narrowly short of the all-time highOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS - Gold spiked higher, falling narrowly short of the all-time high - FX markets captured the flight to safety while US equity markets were shut - Gold volatility index eyed ahead of the weekend OANDA:XAUUSD SPIKED HIGHER, FALLING NARROWLY SHORT OF THE ALL-TIME HIGH Gold prices surged on Friday morning following reports of an Israeli strike on Iran, raising concerns of a broader conflict. The uncertainty in the Middle East has contributed to the increase in gold prices, approaching its all-time high of $2431. Although gold remains overbought on the daily chart, the bullish momentum seems to be slowing down. The support level is at $2360, with further interest around $2320. Despite a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, central bank buying continues to support the upward trend in gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears at a crossroads. Geopolitical risks remain a factor, and market reaction to earnings reports and economic data will be crucial. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 4996-5000 (major), 4990, 4975 (major), 4966 Major Supports: 4958 (major), 4937 (major), 4904-08 (major), 4878 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5013, 5027 (major), 5039, 5045 (major) Major Resistances: 5081 (major), 5108 (major), 5125-30 (major), 5146-50 (major), 5190 (major) Trading Strategy Geopolitical Awareness: Remain vigilant about weekend news developments and potential market impact. Long Opportunities: Due to potential volatility, exercise caution with long positions. Prioritize bids at 4975 (a reaction may signal buying strength) or on failed breakdowns of overnight lows at 4963. For deeper longs, focus on major supports (4937, 4904), utilizing the knife-catch protocol. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5045, 5081, and particularly 5108 for shorting. A breakdown below 4958 could open up downside targets. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to regain control by reclaiming 5045 and pushing back into the red channel/flag around 5108 for a sustained recovery attempt. Holding Support: Defending the 4996-5000 zone is encouraging for bulls. If 4958 holds on a retest, it may signal a relief bounce. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5013 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 4958 triggers the downside move, likely targeting 4937 or lower. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 22nd, 2024 Economic Environment IMF Global Financial Stability Report highlights optimism and expectations for policy easing. Verizon earnings report provides insights into the telecommunications sector. Focus on big tech earnings and their potential impact on market trends. Monitoring of economic indicators: commodity currencies, Asian shares, European currencies, and industrial output data from Poland, Taiwan, and China. Market Focus Sector analysis: Focus on communication services and energy sectors. Upcoming economic events: employment report, CPI report, and Bitcoin halving. Additional Market News Earnings season: Focus on major bank reports. Regulatory and legal updates: SEC activities and discussions on college debt and retirement planning. Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of geopolitical events, earnings reports, and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly. Let me know if you have any further questions or would like changes made!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
GOLD remains stable, two important fundamentalsOANDA:XAUUSD continuing to adjust after approaching the original price of 2,400 USD, the target price increase noticed by readers in yesterday's publication is also a resistance that causes gold prices to adjust but overall it does not change. trend with the expectation of entering the accumulation phase. Iran said its military is ready to respond to any Israeli attack. Geopolitical instability continues to support gold and if the situation escalates it will continue to keep gold prices stable. Only when central banks stop buying, or the geopolitical situation cools down, gold prices will only decrease because market psychology will enter a risk-taking phase. Top US central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, on Tuesday declined to offer any guidance on the timing of interest rate cuts, instead says monetary policy will need to be restrained for longer. After a series of unexpectedly high inflation, on April 16, Powell signaled that the Fed would wait longer than expected before cutting interest rates, marking another significant change since his shift in focus. focus on loosening policy in December 2023. Powell's latest policy shift poses a dilemma for central bank governors gathered in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. As sent to readers in yesterday's edition, the market is being negatively affected by two important fundamental factors. - Gold is supported by risk aversion from the escalating geopolitical situation in many places around the globe. - Gold is under pressure because inflation macro data remains unexpectedly high and the possibility that the Fed will keep interest rates high for a longer period of time. This makes gold very difficult to navigate at the present time because both of these factors can bring market shocks and create huge technical fluctuations. Analyze technical prospects OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has continued to correct after approaching the original price level of 2,400 USD, in general the technical conditions supporting the possibility of price increases have not changed. With a short-term uptrend from the price channel. Even if the price channel breaks below it would only open up the possibility for another correction where bullish conditions are still present with the main long-term trend from EMA21. In case the price channel is broken below gold could fall further to test the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. The current chart is still tilted to the upside but it may enter an accumulation phase with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,356 – 2,365USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2428USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Geopolitical conflicts escalated, GOLD rose above $2,400OANDA:XAUUSD spot delivery suddenly increased sharply. Spot gold has just increased to 2,415 USD/ounce, it has increased more than 35 US Dollars during the day. Previously, US media reported that the US confirmed that an Israeli missile hit an Iranian facility. The most active gold futures contract on COMEX was 1,426 lots traded within one minute from 08:43 to 08:44 Hanoi time on April 19, with a total contract value of 346 million USD. According to the latest report of the American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) today Friday, April 19, a US official confirmed to the media that an Israeli missile hit a target in Iran. Meanwhile, US intelligence said officials could not confirm reports of air strikes in Syria and Iraq. ABC reported that a senior US official told ABC News that Israel launched missiles at Iran as a retaliation attack against Iran. Israeli military officials previously announced that Iran launched an attack on Saturday and launched more than 300 missiles and drones at targets across Israel. All but a few were intercepted by Israel and its allies, including the United States, officials said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country's war cabinet have held several meetings since the attack on Iran, with ABC previously reporting that at least two previous attacks had been called off. With current geopolitical developments, the market in general and the gold market in particular will temporarily be less affected by moves from monetary policy. Gold is considered the safe haven asset of choice in contexts of geopolitical conflict, and it becomes even more attractive if conflicts escalate. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has achieved all target price increases after 3 days of accumulation with a short-term upward trend from the price channel that has been noticed by readers throughout the previous editions maintained. maintain stability. The bullish structure remains unchanged with a short-term upward trend from the price channel and medium-term from the EMA21. Temporarily, gold has enough conditions to retest its all-time peak if it continues to maintain above the original price of 2,400 USD. This means the current all-time high is considered the nearest resistance level, which is also the nearest target upside. Meanwhile, the 1% Fibonacci extension now becomes the closest support level. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,365 - 2,382USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2431 - 2429 ⚰️SL: 2435 ⬆️TP1: 2424 ⬆️TP2: 2419 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2335 - 2337 ⚰️SL: 2331 ⬆️TP1: 2342 ⬆️TP2: 2347
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD reached target gainsAlthough the dollar and US Treasury yields rose as US retail sales rose more than expected in March, tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand, and at the same time, the market Expecting that the Federal Reserve will be able to delay interest rate cuts this year, gold prices did not extend last week's decline but continued to increase. Iran launched drones and explosive missiles late on Saturday, the first attack by another country on Israel in more than three decades, raising fears of a wider regional conflict than. Israeli officials support retaliation, but the United States makes clear it will not engage in any offensive action against Iran, limiting the immediate market reaction and limiting further gains of gold. The market now expects fewer than two 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the end of this year, compared with three previously expected. With inflation remaining high, market participants have now pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from June to September. This remains supportive of a rise. US Treasury yields, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.61%. Higher bond yields weigh on gold prices because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold investments. However, in the current context, this is not a steady pressure and should only be considered a factor limiting the strong increase in gold prices. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 77.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0 ,8%. The Middle East prepares for an Israeli "retaliation" attack on Iran after an Israeli war cabinet meeting. The Israeli Air Force said it had completed "preparations" and that an attack on Iran was "imminent". (according to Zerohedge) US officials say they believe Israel will conduct operations against Iran today. (according to Wall Street Journal) Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Hezi Halevi said during an inspection of Nevatim Air Base on Monday that Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel “will be responded to.” The Times' front page headline was changed to "War Cabinet decides on serious attack on Iran, hopes not to trigger regional war". Previously it was “Times of Israel”. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after the downward correction, gold has achieved all of the target gains noted by readers in the weekly publication and the structural support for the bullish outlook remains unchanged. Temporarily, the nearest target level is noted at the original price level of 2,400 USD. Once this raw price level is broken, gold will tend to continue to increase to the all-time peak previously established. The original price level of 2,400 USD is also the closest resistance in the short term, and as long as gold continues to maintain above the 2,382 USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension, reaching 2,400 USD is inevitable. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows. Resistance: 2400 - 2428USD Support: 2358 - 2345 - 2330USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2409 - 2407 ⚰️SL: 2413 ⬆️TP1: 2402 ⬆️TP2: 2397 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2357 - 2359 ⚰️SL: 2353 ⬆️TP1: 2364 ⬆️TP2: 2369
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD may enter an accumulation phaseOANDA:XAUUSD remained steady as safe-haven demand due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East offset weakening expectations of a US interest rate cut this year. Data on Monday showed U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in March. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose for a second straight session, with rising bond yields putting pressure on gold as they increase the opportunity cost of investing in metals. However, gold has remained strong over the past few weeks despite rising bond yields due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a safe-haven asset, gold has seen growing demand from investors and central banks amid global economic uncertainty and growing geopolitical tensions. On the one hand, investors are still concerned about the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially after Iran attacked Israel over the weekend. On the other hand, speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer has limited demand for gold. Traders are now relying on US macro data and speeches from influential members of the Fed, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, to find trading opportunities. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said recent inflation data suggests it may take longer for the central bank to feel confident enough to cut interest rates. Powell pointed out that the Fed has lacked more progress in fighting inflation since inflation fell sharply late last year. If price pressures continue, the Fed could leave interest rates unchanged “for as long as necessary.” “Recent data clearly does not give us greater confidence but instead suggests that achieving that confidence may take longer than expected,” Powell said in his latest statement. After Fed Chairman Powell said that recent data showed no progress in inflation, this new point caused interest rate cut expectations to continue to decline. According to the latest data from CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 98%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 0% and the probability of increasing interest rates by 25 basis points version is 2%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 84.8% and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 14.9%. The market context is making trading decisions much more difficult, as two important market fundamentals are creating profoundly opposing influences. On the one hand, gold is supported by rising geopolitical risks that increase safe-haven demand for precious metals, on the other hand, gold is under pressure because the Fed's interest rate expectations are having new points due to data. Does macroeconomics favor the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer? These two opposing factors may create a state of accumulation in the near future, with gold prices increasing and decreasing within certain limits and this will be described through the technical analysis section below. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold received support from readers in yesterday's edition at $2,365, it continued to rise but was limited by the original price level of $2,400 which was also a resistance point. target for short-term increase expectations. At this time, the $2,400 level is also the closest notable technical resistance level and once this level is broken it will open up expectations towards the previously established all-time high. Will consider selling around the Fibo 100 mark, corresponding to the resistance threshold of 2430USD. Technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the long-term trend from EMA21. As long as gold remains above the 21 EMA, it remains in a long-term bullish trend. In the short term, influenced by fundamental factors, gold may enter an accumulation phase with main resistance at 2,400 USD and support at 2,365 USD. It is worth noting that if the $2,365 level is broken below gold will tend to retest the 0.786% Fibonacci extension of the $2,331 price point. Recently, gold has been traded at a very large margin, so preparations are needed from managing trading volume and open positions/protecting open positions. The expectation of cumulative sideways with an uptrend will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,331 - 2,365USD Resistance: 2,400 - 2430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2431 - 2429 ⚰️SL: 2435 ⬆️TP1: 2424 ⬆️TP2: 2419 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2351 - 2353 ⚰️SL: 2348 ⬆️TP1: 2358 ⬆️TP2: 2363
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GBPJPY was largely flat on ThursdayGBP/JPY was largely flat on Thursday, trading slightly below trendline resistance at 192.70. Bears need to protect this ceiling tooth and nail; any lapse could spark a move towards the 2024 highs at 193.55. On further strength, a jump towards the psychological 195.00 mark cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, if the pair gets rejected from its current position and pivots to the downside, support stretches from 190.60 to 190.15, where a rising trendline converges with the 50-day simple moving average and April’s swing lows. Additional losses below this floor could reinforce bearish impetus, opening the door for a drop towards 187.90.
by Xayah_trading
1
📈SAND Futures: Short-Term Trading Analysis⚡️🔍Exploring SAND, a metaverse venture with long-term potential, we shift our lens to short-term trading prospects within SAND futures, scrutinizing a 4-hour timeframe. 📈Beginning with candlestick analysis, SAND witnessed a notable decline post-breaking the 0.5629 support, settling near 0.382, thereby forming a consolidation zone between 0 and 0.382. The duration of this range remains uncertain. 💥RSI, after touching a support level at 13, now stabilizes around 50, signaling a reset amid price stabilization. Await RSI's confirmation as it forms a new structure. Meanwhile, volume diminishes post-reaching the 0.4050 floor, synchronizing with the consolidation phase, implying reduced activity during price correction. 📉For potential short positions, monitor a breach below 0.4050, presenting potential entry points, with an initial target set at 0.3647. Conversely, exercise patience for long positions, awaiting confirmation near 0.4710 or a bullish move followed by a correction. 📝Stay vigilant as SAND's short-term trajectory unfolds, capitalizing on emerging opportunities while navigating market dynamics. 🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
by itsparham96
Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at the critical 5045 support zone . A decisive break in either direction will set the tone for the next market move. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5044-46 (major), 5039, 5033 Major Supports: 5020, 5013 (major), 5000, 4990-95 (major), 4959 (major), 4937 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5054 (major), 5066, 5077-5082 (major) Major Resistances: 5112-5115 (major), 5150-55 (major), 5177-80 (major), 5203 (major) Trading Strategy Focus on the 5045 Zone: This zone has become a battleground. Observe closely for breakouts or breakdowns, as these will trigger the next directional move. Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5045 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5039 or only at major support levels, particularly 5013 and 4990-95. Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of the 5077-82 zone, or more reliable setups at 5112-5115 and 5150-55 for shorts. A breakdown below 5039 offers short potential, targeting 5013. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Holding Support: Bulls need to defend the 5045 zone to maintain control. Relief Bounce: If 5045 holds, a bounce to 5082 and potentially 5112-15 is possible, with further upside potential to 5150-55 if momentum is sustained. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5054/5060 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5039 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5013 and potentially 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting. News: Top Stories for April 19th, 2024 Economic Environment Inflation remains a factor despite a decline. Corporate profits show resilience. Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US. Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news. Reminder: The market is reacting to the battle at the 5045 level. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
GOLD taking profits after continuously creating highsGold hit a new record of $2,430 last week during the New York session. It has seen gains in seven of the past eight weeks, increasing by over 17% since mid-February. This is despite the strength of the US dollar and a hawkish repricing of US interest rate expectations. The usual negative relationship between gold and US real yields has broken down, leaving traders confused. Geopolitical frictions in the Middle East have further bolstered gold, although these risks have intensified only recently and haven't been a predominant theme for an extended period. To add context, investors have been nervous about Iran's potential retaliation against Israel following the bombing of its embassy in Syria. Such action could escalate tensions in the region and spill over into a wider conflict. DEEPER LOOK INTO CURRENT MARKET DRIVERS There are several other reasons that could explain why gold has done so well this year. Here are some possible explanations for its ascent: The Momentum Trap: Gold's relentless rise could be fueled by a self-fulfilling speculative frenzy. This trend-following behavior can create vertical rallies that are often unsustainable over the long term. Should this dynamic be at play right now, a sharp downward correction could unfold once sentiment shifts and valuations reset. Hard landing: Some market participants may be hedging an economic downturn caused by the aggressive monetary policy tightening from 2022-2023 and the fact that policymakers could keep interest rates higher for longer in response to stalling progress on disinflation. Inflation comeback: Gold bulls could be taking a strategic long-term approach, betting that the Fed will cut rates no matter what as insurance policy to prevent adverse developments in an election year. Cutting rates while consumer prices remain well above the 2% target risks triggering a new inflationary wave that would ultimately benefit precious metals. OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has rallied this week, setting a new all-time high near $2,430. However, the price eventually fell to that level and closed at $2,344 on Friday. If the reversal persists in the coming trading sessions, support will emerge at $2,305, followed by $2,267. With further weakness, all eyes will be on $2,225. On the other hand, if they rotate higher and rally again, the record high of $2,430 will be the first line of defense against further advances. With the market stretched and in overbought territory, gold may struggle to overcome this barrier, but in the event of a breakout, we could see gold prices move towards $2,500. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,319 – 2,267 - 2,225USD Resistance: 2,365 - 2,430USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
The Supply Zone Keeping a Lid on GoldGold (June) / Silver (May) Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2388.4, down 19.4 Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 28.40, down 0.024 Gold has traded fairly constructive on the week given Friday’s sharp reversal but the overhead supply resulting from this reversal is apparent at major three-star resistance at 2404.3-2408.5 and 2412.9-2414.8. A close above these levels would theoretically begin neutralizing Friday’s reversal and invite fresh buying. While Silver has not retraced as much as Gold, its path too has been constructive but there is a clear psychological barrier at the $29 mark. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 2404.3-2408.5***, 2412.9-2414.8***, 2425.6**, 2337.3-2448.8***, 2466.5***, 2539.3-2560.1**** Pivot: 2395 Support: 2387-2489.6**, 2378.2***, 2365.8-2370.7*(**, 2360.2-2362.6***, 2348.1-2351***, 2327.1-2343.1**** Silver (May) Resistance: 28.69-23.75**, 28.88-28.90**, 29.05-29.22***, 29.88-30.35*** Pivot: 28.56 Support: 23.44**, 28.36**, 28.14-28.18**, 28.03*, 27.93**, 27.64-27.76***, 27.34-27.51***, 26.93-26.97***, 26.40-26.48*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 18th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 18th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Mixed, with traders weighing the implications of inflation, economic signals, and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5066, 5060, 5054 Major Supports: 5045-47 (major), 5038, 5000-5005 (major), 4990, 4966, 4932-36 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5082-77 (major), 5090, 5103 (major), 5115-5120 (major) Major Resistances: 5148-50 (major), 5170-75 (major), 5191, 5224, 5287 (major) Trading Strategy Focus on Key Levels: The market is sandwiched between critical support at 5045-47 and resistance at 5082-77. Breakouts in either direction will determine the next directional move. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5045-47 with failed breakdowns, or at major supports (5000-5005 if reached). Prioritize knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Consider shorts on backtests of the 5082-77 zone, 5115-20, or 5148-50. A failure of 5045-47 opens the downside, with potential shorts below 5037. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to reclaim 5077-82 for a strong signal, then potentially 5115-20. Holding Support: Continued defense of the 5045-47 trendline is encouraging for bulls. Re-tests and quick recoveries signal buying strength. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5077-82 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5045-47 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting. News: Top Stories for April 18th, 2024 Economic Environment Inflation declines but remains a factor in market analysis. Corporate profits show resilience. Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US. Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news. Global Markets IMF Global Financial Stability Report discusses market optimism and expected policy easing. Reminder: The market is reacting to key levels and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
EURUSD has fallen sharply in recent daysThe US dollar strengthened last week, reaching its highest level since mid-February. Despite initial losses, the greenback reversed its trend in response to a shift in global interest rate expectations. Speculation arose that other central banks may relax their policies earlier than the Federal Reserve. The European Central Bank could be among them. This week, the release of the core PCE deflator will be a significant event on the U.S. economic calendar. Due to the closure of international markets on Good Friday, the true impact of the data may not be fully apparent until Monday. However, volatility could still occur due to lower liquidity. The upcoming PCE report is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase in the core price index indicator for February, keeping the 12-month reading at 2.8%. If the result exceeds this estimate, it could be positive for the dollar and potentially delay any moves towards a looser policy stance by U.S. policymakers. FOREXCOM:EURUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has fallen sharply in recent days, breaching both trendline support and the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0835, signaling a bearish shift. If losses accelerate in the coming week, a key technical floor to watch emerges at 1.0800. Below this area, the focus will be on 1.0725. On the other hand, if bulls mount a comeback and spark a rebound, resistance can be identified in the 1.0835-1.0850 band. In the event of a bullish push past this range, attention will be directed towards the 100-day simple moving average, followed by 1.0890 and 1.0925 in case of sustained strength.
by Xayah_trading
2
EURUSD stabilizes ahead of press conferenceOANDA:EURUSD , CHARTS AND ANALYSIS - ECB edges further towards a June rate cut. - Will President Lagarde begin signaling further rate cuts? The ECB maintained its policy levers unchanged, as expected. However, they stated that if their assessment of inflation and monetary policy transmission improves, they may consider reducing current restrictions. This follows their previous mention of June as a potential meeting for a policy decision, increasing the likelihood of a cut on June 6th. Financial markets continue to price in a 25 basis point at the June meeting and have recently increased the probability of an additional cut at the July 18th meeting. It may well be that the ECB cuts twice before the Fed makes its first move. OANDA:EURUSD fell sharply yesterday, due to post-CPI US dollar strength, leaving the Euro as the next driver of any move. Initial support is seen around 1.0698, a double-low made in early February, before the 1.0635 – May 31st swing-low – and 1.0610 – Fibonacci retracement – come into play.
by Xayah_trading
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 15 - April 19]International gold prices surged this week due to central banks' gold demand, expected interest rate cuts by the FED and other central banks, and heightened geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. Rising tensions in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Israel, have increased gold's safe haven status. Central banks, including those in the BRICS bloc, are buying gold to diversify away from the US and the West. Lower interest rates by central banks like the FED are expected to drive up gold prices. The unexpected growth of the US labor market in March, with 303,000 jobs added, gives motivation for the FED to cut interest rates in June. International gold prices have increased by 17% since the beginning of 2024 and have room to rise further when the FED cuts interest rates. March CPI and PPI data, to be released next week, may strongly affect gold prices. Forecasts suggest that US CPI will rise by approximately 0.2% in March. If the actual data meets or falls below this expectation (below 0.3%), it will be favorable for gold prices. This would bolster the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in June. Conversely, if March CPI exceeds 0.4%, it could delay the Fed's rate cut plans and negatively impact gold prices. 📌Technically, if we refer to the monthly time frame technical chart, the gold price has formed wave 5 according to the Elliott wave pattern, continuing to dissect the Elliott wave on the weekly chart, we can see with the naked eye. Currently, the gold price is in wave 3, and the price is approximately touching the 161.8 fibo mark around the 2431 threshold. If wave 3 is officially completed and enters the adjustment cycle, but we need to see the gold price trading above the 2200 threshold to expect it. Gold maintained its upward momentum and formed another wave 5, continuing to conquer a new high price level. Another perspective with the fibo time zone, the gold price may peak and reverse at the end of April or through May, corresponding to the peak of wave 3 and reduce and adjust wave 4, which is also considered appropriate. ly. The trading plan for next week will first consider selling around 2383 and buying if the price adjusts to 2250.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as investors digest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assess their implications on the timing of potential rate cuts. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5091, 5082 (major), 5076, 5068 (major) Major Supports: 5046-51 (major), 5038 (major), 4996-5000 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5097 (major), 5108 (major), 5115, 5126-29 (major), 5155 (major) Major Resistances: 5171 (major), 5188-90 (major), 5225-30 (major), 5280-83 (major) Trading Strategy Monitoring Fed Commentary: Stay updated on further statements from Federal Reserve officials as they will influence market direction. Range-Bound Trading: The 5082-5115 zone remains a choppy range. Focus on failed breakdowns within this zone, or holding position runners. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5091 (after multiple successful tests), reclaims of 5082, or failed breakdowns at 5076. Knife-catch protocol applies for any deeper longs, particularly at 5046-51. Short Opportunities: Consider shorts if backtesting breakdown zones like 5126-29, 5155, or 5171. Prioritize a failure of 5082 on the short side. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5126-29, then 5171 to signal a potential short-term bottom. Holding Support: A sustained hold of 5082 could lead to a bounce and backtests of the resistances listed above. Adding on Strength: Breaks above 5108 after acceptance suggest potential for more upside. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain short-term control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5082 is a warning, with shorts below 5068 targeting 5046-51 (where runners would likely be exited). As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first. News: Top Stories for April 17th, 2024 Federal Reserve Focus Jerome Powell's comments emphasize that inflation remains above the Fed's target, hinting at a delay in interest rate cuts. Investor expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted, with a maximum of three cuts now anticipated, starting in June at the earliest. Market Performance & Sectors S&P 500 hits new all-time highs but experiences volatility following Federal Reserve commentary. Technology stocks, especially those in the AI sector, continue to outperform. Communication services and energy sectors receive a high percentage of analyst buy ratings. Earnings & Corporate News Big banks kick off the earnings season, providing insights into the financial sector's health. United Airlines faces aircraft delivery delays and adjusts its strategy. International Economic & Monetary Policies President Biden's proposed tariffs on Chinese steel aim to protect domestic industry. ECB plans for near-term rate cuts raise questions about the European economic outlook. Additional Market Updates Cryptocurrency market dynamics, including Bitcoin halving cycles. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and their potential economic implications. Chinese economic growth. Housing market trends and government tax policies in Canada. Reminder: The market is reacting to Federal Reserve commentary. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
GOLD reversed sharply from record peakThe gold market heated up last week due to increasing geopolitical tensions. Israel is preparing for a potential attack from Iran, while Iran has vowed to seek revenge on Israel following an attack on their consulate in Damascus. This news is expected to drive safe-haven gold buying over the weekend. The US Department of Labor's report states that the producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2% in March 2024, which is lower than economists' predicted 0.3% increase. Investors are acknowledging the potential for prolonged inflation and expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a patient approach to monetary policy. After rising to 2,431 USD/ounce, the highest price in history, gold encountered profit-taking pressure, causing the price of this precious metal to decline sharply. While gold failed to hold above $2,400 an ounce, analysts noted that it remains strong as it prepares to set another weekly record. The new record comes even as markets begin to assess the possibility of an interest rate cut in June after March inflation was higher than expected.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Finishing Off a Leading DiagonalThis is a rough estimate projection of what I'm expecting in the coming weeks for the market. I'll post a more detailed analysis once wave 4 is confirmed. Here is the summary (this is not an EWT analysis, so you;ll have to take my word on it for this count - rather, its a rough forecast for what to expect that uses an EWC to simplify my pivot references): - Expecting current bounce off the last weeks low to continue slightly higher until around 4/9-4/10 (next Tues-Wed). Should reverse around 5239-5282. - After that we will get one more pullback that will last through the end of next week (i.e. more downside through 4/12). This pullback will most likely form a higher low around 5163, but it could make one more lower low: as long as it does not extend below 5112 the ending diagonal structure will still be valid. ** The above will complete wave 4 of the ending diagonal, what will follow is a final wave to new highs by the end of April 2024 (wave 5 of the ending diag). My target range for the final 5 of larger degree C of larger degree (5) is 5300-5400.. That will be the top (this will be a major top!!, meaning that shareholders should be distributing here, not buying more). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- How I'm playing this (not financial advice): - Waiting until confirmation of wave 4 of ending diagonal to enter SPY May expiry, 520.00 calls - I'll sell half at SPY 530 and unload the remaining if it makes it to 535 by end of Apr. - After I exit long I will load the boat with puts 3-5 months out because the downside will be gruesome. Key points: - don't short yet - be patient to enter long - this is a "heads up," wait for my more detailed post once I get confimation #Pigs git slaaughtered
OANDA:SPX500USD
by JerryManders
23