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#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.13 - 10.18Last Week : Interesting week we had as many different things happened and it was fun to watch. Last week Globex opened and made a return back into distribution balance, RTH flushed the inventory back into VAL but we again were able to hold VAL into the close and Tuesday Globex rotated back inside balance which brought buying and gave us another failed attempt out of balance top but market was able to hold over the 80s and supply which brought in more buying and triggered a short covering stop run into next Value which held and gave some continuation to close the week. This Week : Friday market attempted a push for VAH into 5840 - 80s Intraday range. We were able to hold around the mean of the of the range into the close but we can see it ended with a Poor high and Weakness into into 50s. IF we are to accept in this new range then we would see price holding over 840s, over Value if that will be the case then we could continue trading in this range over VAL and start building up for an attempt at VAH test. BUT we have to be careful as mentioned last week and week before that previous distribution range was a very interesting area and with current PA we might not be fully done with it, of course we will have to see what the market will actually do. Which means if we don't accept inside/over Value then this push could find its way back under 40s into VAL, IF we will be holding under 30s with Supply above that could trigger more weakness to get us back towards the Edge and eventually if we will have the supply find a way back into Previous Balance. Something to note this week is Volume has been low, we don't have any market moving news until Thursday so need to be careful for more a slow leak back in instead of a quick return if it is to happen, holding over 830s would or 860s would change the weakness.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 14 - Oct 18]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD have continuously decreased in the early sessions of the week to nearly 2,602 USD/oz because market expectations about the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (FED) began to change. . Last week's strong jobs report, combined with a higher-than-expected rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), forced the market to temper expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Fed next month. However, economic experts note that the slowing US economy will continue to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, albeit at a slightly slower pace. This combined with US consumer sentiment falling to 68.9 points, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict remaining complicated, pushed gold prices back up to 2,661 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,657. USD/oz. Although the FED may reduce the pace of interest rate cuts in the near future, investors should not forget that US monetary policy is only one factor affecting gold prices. Notably, many central banks have officially announced they will continue to buy gold reserves. As central bank demand continues to dominate the gold market, new questions are being raised about where all that money is going and what impact it has on the dollar. Certainly, reducing the proportion of USD in foreign exchange reserves of many countries will cause the USD to gradually depreciate. In addition, BRICS member countries are promoting local currency swaps and using electronic currencies in international trade, also creating significant downward pressure on the USD. In addition, the record high level of US public debt is weakening the purchasing power of the USD. The USD has been under a lot of downward pressure, so of course it will positively support gold prices in the medium and long term. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, there are continuous periods of sideways accumulation, then continuously creating new high prices afterward. And this time is no exception if the price breaks the peak of 2,685 USD/oz. Currently, the support level is established around the circular resistance level of 2600, while the resistance level is around the 2685 mark. Next week, if the gold price trades above the 2625 threshold, we can expect the price to continue to increase beyond the 2700 threshold. In case the support mark of 2600 is penetrated, the gold price will temporarily decrease and adjust below the level of 2555. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.555 – 2.600 – 2.625USD Resistance: 2.700 – 2.685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2620 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2554 - 2556⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2550
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
NG1: Will We See a Rebound or a Breakout?🔍 Analyzing NG1: We are approaching a critical support level that could determine our next move. Option 1: A rebound from this level could present a strong buying opportunity, indicating a potential uptrend. Option 2: If we break below this support, the next level could act as a key pivot point, prompting a reevaluation of our strategy. I’m closely monitoring for long entry opportunities to capitalize on any bullish reversals. Let's stay sharp!
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by rebenga93
GOLD rose for two consecutive sessions after inflation dataOANDA:XAUUSD rose on Friday (October 11), after US inflation data reinforced the prospect of lower interest rates this year, keeping the dollar below recent peaks, amid haven demand. Safety stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also boosted gold. At the end of the trading session on October 11, the spot gold contract increased 1% to 2,656.09 USD/oz, increasing for the second consecutive session. Gold futures contracts added 1.3% to 2,674.40 USD/oz. The PPI producer price index in the US was unchanged in September, showing that the inflation outlook remains favorable and supporting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates next month. The PPI data looks friendly to precious metals bulls and shows that the Fed is still on track to lower interest rates this year. This data comes after CPI data in the US rose slightly higher than forecast last month, however, the annual inflation increase was at the lowest level in more than 3 and a half years. The dollar steadied below a 2-month peak on Friday. On the physical front, gold dealers in India charged premiums for the first time in two months this week as the upcoming festive season attracted some buying of copper jewellery. Gold holdings of ETFs increased to nearly 95 tons in the third quarter. This means ETFs are contributing positively to gold demand again for the first time in 10 quarters.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers strongly from support area, eye US PPIOn Friday (October 11) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price has just exceeded 2,645 USD/ounce, increasing more than 15 USD during the day. While US CPI data was slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly. This caused the US Dollar index to decrease significantly. In addition, tensions in the Middle East also attracted a wave of safe-haven gold buying. On Thursday, although US CPI data came in slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly. Data on Thursday showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) in September rose 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations for a 2.3% increase. Core CPI increased by 3.3% over the same period last year, exceeding expectations and the 3.2% increase in August. Additionally, US CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, a similar increase to the previous month and above the consensus estimate of 0.1%. The US core CPI growth rate in September was stable at 0.3% over the previous month, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The data also showed the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims last week rose to the highest level in more than a year, reflecting a weakening labor market partly due to a rise in jobless claims. strong in Michigan and the effects of Hurricane Helene. OANDA:XAUUSD supported by broad-based risk aversion and a softer USD ahead of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data released later on Friday. On Thursday evening local time, the Israeli security cabinet held a meeting to decide how to respond to Iran's large-scale missile attack on Israel on the 1st of this month. Science Minister Gila Gamliel, a member of Israel's security cabinet, said the security cabinet would "make the right decision" to prevent another Iranian attack. Gamliel told Israeli public broadcaster Kan that revenge was imminent and could happen at any time. US and Israeli officials told Axios that US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved closer to the scope of Israel's planned retaliation against Iran during their phone call on Wednesday, media reported. American news agency Axios reported on Thursday (local time). The Biden administration admits that Israel will soon launch a major attack on Iran. Pay attention to PPI data US annual PPI growth in September is expected to slow to 1.6% while year-on-year core PPI growth in September is expected to increase to 2.7%, compared to previous growth of 2.4% in August. PPI data is almost as influential as CPI data and is also expected to create strong fluctuations in the market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered significantly from the key support area that readers noticed in the publications before gold adjusted down to the 2,608 – 2,600 USD area. The recovery gains achieved the initial target at $2,634 and broke this level, which would qualify gold to continue towards the next target at $2,660 in the short term. There are no changes in the technical structure that support the upside, with the Relative Strength Index also folding upward from 50, which is seen as the closest support in terms of momentum. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,634 – 2,630 – 2,626USD Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2663 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2667 →Take Profit 1 2656 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2655 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2618 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2633
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Confirmed Bullish Reversal WTI Crude Oil looks bullish from both daily/intraday perspectives. On a daily time frame, I see a confirmed breakout of a resistance line of a wide horizontal parallel channel and a trend violation and reversal. On a 4H time frame, I see a retest of a recently broken resistance of the channel with a consequent strong bullish movement and change of character CHoCH. I believe that the market will continue growing. Next resistance - 77.0 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:USOILLong
by VasilyTrader
1
GOLD is affected by the Middle EastAs recent jobs data prompted investors to lower expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, and as tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing, gold prices fell. strong but it seems this is just a profit-taking move and not a downtrend with solid conditions. Following last week's positive jobs report, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool, the market currently predicts an 86.8% chance of a 25% rate cut. basic point. Markets will focus on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting to be released on Thursday, followed by US consumer price index data on Thursday and producer price index data on Thursday. out on Friday. US inflation data due out on Thursday is expected to show price pressures continuing to ease, but there is little further push for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further in the meantime. next time. Therefore, the current gold price trend is temporarily governed by geopolitical developments. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting. The market will have additional trading materials from the meeting minutes. The Federal Reserve almost unanimously agreed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting. In addition to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, many Federal Reserve officials will speak during this trading day, including Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson, Fed Chairman Richmond Barkin, Fed Chairman Atlanta Bostic, Fed President Dallas Logan and Chicago Fed President Gu lsby. Regarding the situation in the Middle East, Lebanese Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem said in a televised speech at an undisclosed location on Tuesday that he supported the efforts of the National Assembly Speaker. Lebanon Berri aimed to promote a ceasefire without specifying Hezbollah's proposal. It is worth noting that this is the first time that Hezbollah does not consider ending the war in Gaza a prerequisite for ending fighting in Israel and Lebanon. OANDA:XAUUSD known for its stability and as a tool to prevent geopolitical and economic risks, and when geopolitical risks show some signs of cooling down, gold also falls due to weakening shelter demand. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is correcting but there are also signs of recovery from the EMA21 level, the key support level you will pay attention to throughout these publications. With the main trend from the price channel and the EMA21 level not being broken below, gold's technical outlook still has conditions for price increases. In the short term, holding above $2,608 – $2,600 provides room for gold to recover with the nearest target at $2,634 and more to $2,660 once it breaks above initial resistance at $2,634. The relative strength index RSI points down with a moderate slope and is close to the area of ​​the 50 level, the 50 level is considered the closest support level currently, the RSI pointing up from this level will be considered a signal price increase. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, it still has enough upside and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,608 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,660USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2590 →Take Profit 1 2601 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2606
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
BITCOIN IS GOING UP! TA + TRADE PLAN BY BFTechnical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) on the Chart by Blaž Fabjan Falling Wedge Continuation Pattern The falling wedge is a bullish continuation pattern, often indicating a potential upward breakout after a period of consolidation. Resistance and Support Lines: The chart shows a clear resistance line sloping downward and a support line also trending downward. The price is approaching the apex of the wedge, where a breakout is likely imminent. Indicators Analysis: VMC Cipher B (Market Cipher Indicator): The divergences on the VMC Cipher B show a series of green dots, which are often used to indicate potential long entry points. The momentum appears to be turning positive, with the indicator suggesting possible bullish divergence. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The current RSI is at 39.81, which indicates a moderately oversold condition. An RSI below 40 often suggests that the market is near the bottom, and a potential reversal to the upside is likely. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator shows 43.44 and 47.50 (K and D lines), hovering near the oversold region but not yet fully bottomed out. A crossover or upward movement from these levels would provide additional confirmation of a bullish reversal. HMA+ Histogram: The HMA (Hull Moving Average) histogram shows recent red bars, indicating negative momentum, but it appears to be narrowing, suggesting that the selling pressure is weakening. A transition from red to green bars would confirm a shift toward bullish momentum. Potential Breakout Scenario: Given the falling wedge pattern and the technical indicators approaching oversold conditions, there is a strong likelihood of a bullish breakout. The volume is not provided in the chart, but price action suggests decreasing volatility before a potential breakout. The breakout direction is likely to be upwards, targeting the $65,000 to $67,500 resistance zone initially. Trading Plan by Blaž Fabjan: Entry Strategy: Wait for Confirmation of Breakout: Enter a long position once the price breaks above the resistance of the falling wedge pattern (around $61,500-$62,000). RSI needs to cross above 45 to confirm momentum is shifting to the upside. Ensure that the VMC Cipher B shows green dots and the Stochastic Oscillator shows a bullish crossover before entering the trade. Stop-Loss Strategy: Place a stop-loss just below the support line of the wedge, which would be approximately around $59,000, to protect against a false breakout or further downside. Profit Targets: First Profit Target: $65,000 (previous swing high and a significant psychological level). Second Profit Target: $67,500 (the next key resistance level after the breakout). Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for a minimum 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio. For an entry near $62,000 with a stop loss at $59,000, the first target at $65,000 gives a decent risk-to-reward ratio, with the potential for higher gains if the price continues to climb. Trade Management: Trailing Stop: Once the price reaches the first target, move the stop-loss to breakeven (entry point) to lock in profits and manage risk. Monitor the RSI and VMC Cipher for signs of exhaustion in momentum once the price nears the second target. Alternative Scenario: If the price fails to break above the wedge and breaks below the support line, consider reversing the position or waiting for further confirmation of a bearish trend before shorting. By following my plan, traders can capitalize on the potential upward breakout from this falling wedge continuation pattern while managing their risk effectively.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by elfabiiani
1
2024-10-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax - Perfect two legged (ABC) correction on the 1h tf and now bulls are free to continue the short squeeze. Buckle up. Bears are only allowed to speak below 19250. If bears manage that, next target would be 19100 and a continuation of the trading range since last Tuesday. My swing long is going. comment : My line in the sand for the bulls was 19250 and the low was 19276. Bulls now want the third big leg up tomorrow and they have all the reason to assume it will happen. We have a perfect bull trend line, so watch what the market is doing around it and don’t short until it’s broken. I’m full bull here. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls want the third leg to 19600+. That’s it. As long as the bull trend line holds, it’s bullish. You can either long now or wait on a breakout above 19450 with follow through. Either is fine. Stop is obvious (if not, ask me). Invalidation is below 19276. bear case: Bears fumbled it today. Selling was decent but they could not get below the breakout price 19270 and if bulls start the better buying tomorrow, I don’t think we will see much fighting. If bears somehow manage to print below 19250, consider me surprised and that I am wrong. Invalidation is above 19450. short term: Max bullish. Stop is still 19250. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade : Can do long now, 19358 or wait on breakout. Stop is the same. trade of the day: Selling 19400 was decent I guess but on these days you find the middle of the range and scalp.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-10-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - oiltl;dr oil - 297 points given to you yesterday. Hope you made some. 76 could be resistance but I can see this printing 78 again tomorrow. Either way, bad place to buy right now. Need better pullback or a buy near the 1h 20ema or bull trend line. I got nothing for the bears here either. They made big bucks and did not fight this much. comment : Closed the given swing long for around 260. I hope you also made some. Bulls are in control again and I doubt bears want to fight this big time before 77 or higher. current market cycle: strongest bull trend key levels: 71 - 80 bull case: At 75.55 I don’t know how deep the pullback can get. Lowest should be around 74. There is a bull trend line and the 1h 20ema is around 75. Above targets are 77/78 and if bulls get wild again, we will print 80 soon. After such wild moves up and down, it’s more reasonable to not expect more extremes and maybe somewhat more contracting prices and sideways movement before the impulse. Invalidation is below 74. bear case: They gave up above 74.5 and their next target is to keep the market below 77 and turn more neutral again. I honestly don’t have decent arguments for the bears. They made big points on the pullback and now bulls try again. I would not look for shorts in this. Invalidation is above 76.5. short term: Bullish for 77 or higher. Neutral below 74. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. I would update this again if we break above 80 with follow through. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Gave you the swing long yesterday at 73.28. That.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
GOLD recovers moderately after sharp declineOANDA:XAUUSD maintained a moderate intraday recovery after yesterday's sharp decline. Gold price is currently trading around 2,611 USD/ounce. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed that the vast majority of Fed officials favored a significant 50 basis point interest rate cut. Traders' focus now turns to the US CPI data released today. Today the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Investors will focus on this report for more data to evaluate on the US interest rate outlook. The market expects US annual CPI growth in September to decrease from 2.5% to 2.3%. CPI in September is expected to increase by 0.1% over the previous month, lower than the previous increase of 0.2%. The annual US core CPI growth rate in September is expected to remain at 3.2%; Core CPI growth rate compared to the previous month in September is expected to decrease from 0.3% to 0.2%. The market estimates inflation will continue to decline, data equal to or lower than expected would be a very positive signal for gold prices. However, if inflation is higher than the previous period, it will open the door for expectations that the Fed will pause the monetary policy easing cycle and this is not beneficial for gold, boosting the US Dollar. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is trying to hold above key technical levels above the $2,600 full price and above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Temporarily, the recovery momentum is quite weak, hindered by the EMA21 level. However, conditions still allow gold prices to rise technically with the trend channel not broken below, on the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching the 50 level, showing some signs of being broken. bend and if RSI points up it will be a positive signal for gold prices. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has conditions to increase in price. In case gold is sold below the level of 2,600 USD, confirmed by the price penetrating the level of 2,594 USD, it will tend to decrease further with the target level being able to reach 2,560 USD, the price point of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. During the day, gold still has a technical outlook that leans heavily towards price increases with notable levels listed below. Support: 2,608 – 2,600 – 2,594USD Resistance: 2,618 – 2,634 – 2,660USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2636 - 2634⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2640 →Take Profit 1 2629 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2624 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585 →Take Profit 1 2596 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2601
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-10-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - 71.54 has a very good chance of being the low of this pullback. Confirmation is only above 74.7. Tough spot right now. I would not be surprised if Globex starts the pump early. Decent chance we see 76 tomorrow and 78 on Friday. Bears would surprise me below 71 and I do think we would see an even bigger flush below that price. comment : Yeah I know, oil again. Market is moving the most currently so embrace the volatility. I make it short today. 71.54 has a very good chance of being the low of this pullback. Market could retest 77, so 300+ ticks higher from here. If you would long this now, stop is either 69.8 or 71.5. Both are reasonable. Confirmation for the bulls is above 74.75. current market cycle: strongest bull trend key levels: 70 - 80 bull case: Bulls see the 3 legs down and a 200 tick buy from the lows. Next they want follow through to break above the bear channel and they know, bears will have their stops between 74.5 and 74.7. Above is no good resistance until 77 again. On the daily chart we can also see bulls bought the daily 20ema almost to the tick and the bull channel now looks proper. Enough reasons why a long now is a decent trade. Invalidation is below 71.5. bear case: Bears had a gigantic pullback and now 2 bigger tails below the daily bars. Are they gonna fight this or do they think they made almost 700 ticks from the highs and it’s probably reversing soon? If you look at the daily chart, you can not come to the conclusion that you want to short 73.35 right now. If we somehow manage to get below 71.5, the bulls case is probably dead but market would likely be more neutral than bearish. Invalidation is above 74.7. short term: Bullish with stop 71.5. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. I would update this again if we break above 80 with follow through. current swing trade: Long 73.28, stop 70.5. Target 77 or higher. trade of the day: Shorts at 77 which was the big red line and August high. Market spiked and bulls who bought above 76.5 did not even had the chance to exit break even.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-10-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr nasdaq - Same as dax for me. Strong breakout and I do think we will retest 21000. September high is 20537 and there is a possibility, this continues to be resistance ut given the current context, the bulls are favored for higher prices. comment : Nested bull wedges on the daily chart and the bear gap to 20650 is getting very small. Only resistance left is the September high 20537 and the current breakout looks strong enough to expect higher highs above it and likely a retest of 21000. current market cycle: Bull trend (nested bull wedges) key levels: 19800 - 21000 bull case: Bulls prevented the market to close below the daily 20ema for 6 days and today bears gave up. Market refuses to go down and now we will test higher again. Bulls have all the arguments on their side if they stay above 20200. Below their case gets shaky again. Invalidation is below 20260. bear case: Bears see the open bear gap to 20650 and the upper bull wedge line around that same price. They will likely try to fight the bulls around that area again but I don’t think they want to risk much at that level. Market refuses to go down and their next best level for good shorts is 21000. If you are looking hard for more bear arguments… Maybe that the current volume is utterly trash and on the 1h tf you have another bull wedge and we are at the high of it. Pullback could go as deep as 20300. Can bears hope for some hot CPI and jobless claims tomorrow? I doubt it but you should not be in positions when the news is released or have really wide stops for your swings. Invalidation is above 20520. short term: Max bullish if the pullback stays above 20300. Neutral below. medium-long term: Very likely a retest of the ath before I expect a correction 10% or more, before another year end rally. Embrace the volatility. current swing trade : Nope trade of the day: Long the opening reversal. Was too strong to now long it, no ifs or buts.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-10-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr oil - Good pullback by the bears. Wait and see if bulls buy it and market found a bottom. Pullback could get some more but I doubt it will be much. 72-74 is neutral. Wait for strong momentum to the upside again. From yesterday: short term: max bullish but maybe one comment… No matter the reason for the short squeeze, it can turn down again violently and form a gigantic range. So imagine if we retest the breakout price of 72.36. How many traders would be trapped then? Don’t be early. comment : Low of the day was 72.71. Hope you listened. current market cycle: strongest bull trend key levels: 70 - 80 bull case: Bulls got a big pullback which will probably be a great buying opportunity for many who can hold through more pain and scale in lower. Was 72.71 the low for this pullback? Possible but market almost never prints one big surprise bar and then moves in the other direction. Need better confirmation and strong buying again. Targets above are obvious. As long as bulls stay above 71, I think they are good and we will retest 77 and maybe higher. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: I don’t think bears did much here. More likely bulls wanted to secure the windfall profits and reduce risk. Are bears shorting 73 now in hopes of an even bigger reversal down to 70? I highly doubt that. The breakout price was retested imo and we can move higher again. Best bears can get is more sideways movement around 73. Bears also had 2 decent legs down. A third one is possible but betting on it might not be that good of a strategy here. Invalidation is above 75. short term: Neutral around 73-74. Bullish above 75 and bearish below 70. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. I would update this again if we break above 80 with follow through. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorts at 77 which was the big red line and August high. Market spiked and bulls who bought above 76.5 did not even had the chance to exit break even.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2024-10-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax - Do or die for the bears at exactly at the bear trend line and last weeks close and also Monday’s pullback high around 19260. Above 19290, bulls are favored for a breakout and target 19330 or higher. If we turn here, I expect 19100 or lower. dax futures comment: Watch the 30m 20ema tomorrow and see if bulls can hold above it. The 19250-19280 area should be resistance and I favor the bears, once we drop below 19200 again. Bulls want the breakout above 19280 and then a strong move for a retest of 19491 ath. We are near are exactly at two very important trend lines. One is the big bull trend line from early August (please see my weekly post and chart) and the other is the bear trend line from the ath. I expect a huge day tomorrow, once we know who wins the battle. Right now I think odds are 50/50. current market cycle: bull trend (big trend line is currently at 18950 on xetra) - close below 19000 ends that bull trend key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls need to break above the bear trend line to stay above the bull trend line and daily 20ema. Market traded the 4th consecutive day around the daily ema and tomorrow we will likely have a huge breakout. If bulls win, we will probably retest the ath. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case : Bears are in do or die mode. Either reverse hard and stay below the bear trend line, or give up and see 19400+ again. Both sides showed strength this week and there is no clear direction for tomorrow. Bear case gets better once we trade below 19200 again. Invalidation is above 19280. short term: Neutral between 19200 - 19280. Bearish below, bullish above. Best to wait for the breakout tomorrow or Friday but I favor tomorrow. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Will swing in the direction of tomorrows breakout trade of the day: Strong selling through Globex but market made a tripple bottom near 19050 and whenever the market tries to do something 2-3 times and fails, it will likely try the opposite. Long above 19130 - bar 10 was a very good trade.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
NF data is coming in, GOLD remains stable with rising channelOANDA:XAUUSD Continuing to maintain the recovery trend with a slight increase in the Asian trading session on October 4, gold is currently trading at 2,661 USD/oz, a slight increase equivalent to 0.21% on the day and about 5 USD as of today. the time the article was completed. Investors will release the US nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to cause major volatility in the gold market. US nonfarm payroll employment is expected to increase by 140,000 in September. The US non-farm payrolls report for September will be released, this is the most important data this week. Surveys show the number of nonfarm workers in the United States is expected to increase by a seasonally adjusted 140,000 in September, following a gain of 142,000 in August. US unemployment rate expected ​will remain unchanged at 4.2% in September. In addition to changes in overall nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate, investors need to focus on average hourly earnings data, which can provide important signals about inflation. broadcast. The average annual hourly wage increase in the United States in September is expected to be unchanged from 3.8% the previous month. Surveys show average hourly wages in the United States are expected to rise 0.3% in September, following a 0.4% increase in August. The September non-farm payrolls report is the next important economic data in the US that could affect Fed policy. If non-farm data is stronger than expected, this could further weaken expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply in November, thereby pushing the dollar higher and creating pressure. for gold price. Conversely, if non-farm employment data is lower than expected, this will be a positive signal for gold prices as it will boost expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply, and cause the currency to US Dollar weakens again. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still trading fairly stable with an uptrend after recovering from corrections and from the support area noted by readers in the previous issue at the lower edge of the price channel, confluence with horizontal support at 2,634USD. In terms of structure, there are no changes compared to previous publications, still an uptrend highlighted by the price channel and weekly target level at 2,672USD. Once the $2,672 level is broken above, gold will have room to continue rising a little further with a target then around $2,685. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension at $2,624, it still has a short-term technical bullish outlook. Notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,645 – 2,634 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2689 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2684 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2615 →Take Profit 1 2626 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2631
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD stabilized at the beginning of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD It is still trading quite stably as at the beginning of the week there were no macro data or events that created a shock on the market. On Tuesday (October 8) in the Asian market, spot gold is currently trading around 2,643 USD/ounce. OANDA:XAUUSD weakened on Monday due to a significant rise in US bond yields, but gold's decline was limited as geopolitical tensions still had the potential for unexpected spikes. Gold prices reached a record high of 2,685.42 USD/ounce on September 26. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments. Last week's US jobs report reinforced beliefs that the economy is unlikely to require significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the rest of the year, with traders currently pricing in There is an 86% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by just 25bps next month. The market will focus on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes, as well as US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data this week. In addition, China's central bank did not buy gold for reserves in September for the fifth consecutive month. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has had 4 consecutive days of decline, the price declines were not strong and did not create any breakthroughs, as the declines were limited and recovered quickly. Temporarily, the price drops should only be considered a technical correction without any impact on the main uptrend with the nearest support at 2,634 USD. Note to previous readers. The main support follows the EMA21 line, with gold recovering above the 2,645 USD price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it will have conditions to set expectations to retest the 2,672 USD level once again. The relative strength index points down with a very moderate slope, not a significant bearish signal. In case the $2,634 level breaks below gold there is still some other support from the 0.618% Fibonacci level and the EMA21 moving average. There is no change in the main trend with price channel as the long-term trend, and notable technical levels are listed again as follows. Support: 2,634 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,645 – 2,659 – 2,672USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2666 - 2664⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2670 →Take Profit 1 2659 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2654 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2619 - 2621⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2615 →Take Profit 1 2626 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2631
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
NQ Could Potentially Purge Tuesdays's Lows? Price looks like it's heading towards Tuesday's Low. We don't have any major news today so I'm not expecting huge movement but, from what price has shown me, it looks like the next draw on liquidity is Tuesday's low. After price entered and respected the Weekly Imbalance, it displaced lower with energy and retraced back to the 4-hour order block that was responsible for that displacement leg. The first 4-hour order block was respected and price, again, pushed lower creating another 4-hour order block. Now, it looks like price is drawing towards that second 4-hour order block and if it respects that level, then I would like to see price run lower and take out Tuesday's Low. I am not a financial advisor. Trade at your own risk. I am only sharing my ideas and predictions of what price could do and I could be 100% wrong. Stay safe!
CME_MINI:NQZ2024Short
by INVYZNN
2024-10-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bears stuffed the bullish price action from Friday with a decent bear bar closing on it’s low. Markets continue in their respective trading ranges near the highs and the daily ema have held again. If bears can generate follow through selling tomorrow, the highs could be in for now and we could see a deeper pullback. sp500 e-mini futures comment: 5750 - 5800 is my neutral range (written in my weekly update) and bears managed to get 5734 but could not close below the daily 20ema. To take control of the market, bears need follow through tomorrow below 5720 and a close below 5700 would be good for them. If they fail, bulls will buy it and we continue inside the range. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels : 5700 - 5850 bull case: Bulls have to stay above the daily 20ema or lose control, that’s their target for tomorrow. Since market is trading below the 1h 20ema, we will probably go more sideways during Globex and EU session before we see a bigger impulse again. Bulls still have the lower wedge bull trend line around 5700 and that would be their last stand before bears can take control and push this much lower again. Odds favor the bulls to stay above 5690 until we tested the trend line more than once. They rarely break on the second/third hit. Invalidation is below 5690. bear case: Bears want to trade below the daily ema and test the bull trend line around 5690-5700. We have spent enough time at the highs and a new impulse is around the corner. As of now I have no opinion where we might break out to. Bears can also make the case for a head & shoulders top and a measured move down would bring us to almost exactly the 50% pullback of the recent bull trend (5638ish). Coincidences eh. Invalidation is above 5850. short term: Neutral at the daily 20ema. It’s more reasonable to expect more sideways instead of a breakout. When it happens, watch for follow through before you join the trend. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day : Globex was bearish enough and once market traded below the 1h 20ema, it could not stay above it for long. Overall I’d say it was a tricky day. Shorting inside the trading range bar 30 - 45 was not a good trade since market just went up and down inside the tight range. Bears showed some strength with bars 45 and 47. Can you then reliably short on bar 50? I doubt it. To weak of a signal and you have the bar 18 low, so you would be shorting low in a potential trading range. Bar 53 was even worse to short, since it was a perfect double bottom with bar 18. Bar 54 was the bar that surely made the market always-in-short and 55 was the give up bar but then market printed one more strong bear bar and reversed for 11 points, trapping late bears.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds