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GOLD eased slightly from new era highsContinuing to be influenced by the approaching US presidential election and the increasingly new conflict in the Middle East, along with other conflict risks in the Asian region have boosted OANDA:XAUUSD continues to be the top haven asset refreshing to new all-time levels. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading former Republican President Donald Trump by a slim margin, 46% to 43%. Strong buying activity by central banks and expectations of US interest rate cuts have also supported gold's 33% increase this year. Fed officials continue to weigh in on the future, with Jeffrey Schmid favoring a slower pace of rate cuts and Mary Daly predicting deeper cuts. Citigroup raised its three-month price forecast by 3.7% to $2,800 an ounce on expectations that continued labor market weakness will boost demand. Israel and its rivals Hamas and Hezbollah have vowed to continue fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, leaving little hope for a solution to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Rising geopolitical tensions often cause investors to flock to safe-haven assets such as gold as a "bunker" against risk and uncertainty in global markets. In the context of geopolitical and economic instability, gold is considered a safe haven tool to hedge risks, and lower interest rates also increase gold's investment appeal. Gold is up more than 33% this year and has renewed all-time record highs multiple times. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has not yet broken the price channel with the upper edge confluent with the price channel and this is considered the most important resistance currently. Gold is down a bit from the aforementioned confluence but overall in the interim it can only be seen as a weak correction signal, with the Relative Strength Index pointing down without breaking the 75 level, if the RSI turns down Below level 75 it will send a clearer signal for a correction towards the 50 area. Temporarily, gold's decline should only be considered a short-term correction, technical conditions still support the possibility of price increases. However, in case gold falls below the 1% Fibnonacci level it would be a good signal for a possible further correction with a target then around $2,721 and more to the $2,711 Fibonacci level. 0.786% expansion. During the day, the bullish prospect of gold prices with technical correction cases will be noticed again by the following price points. Support: 2,721 – 2,711 Resistance: 2,748 – 2,750 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2767 - 2765⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2771 →Take Profit 1 2760 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2709 - 2711⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 →Take Profit 1 2716 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2721
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
ETH BROADER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADE PLANPrice Movement The chart shows that Ethereum (ETH) has been moving within a descending trading channel after an earlier uptrend. The channel is well-defined by a series of lower highs and lower lows. The descending channel extends from around early 2024 and continues through the current period. The price seems to be consolidating after bouncing from the lower boundary of the channel. Current Price Action Ethereum is currently trading at $2,582.26, down by 1.50% at the time the chart was captured. The recent movement shows a potential double bottom near the lower channel support, signaling a possible end of the downtrend. The price is at a critical juncture, as it appears to be breaking out of the short-term resistance within the channel, hinting at a possible reversal or continued sideways movement. Descending Channel Structure The chart highlights a descending trading channel where price has respected the upper resistance and lower support levels multiple times, indicating the reliability of this structure. The channel also shows that while Ethereum is in a corrective phase, it still holds the potential for a significant bullish breakout if the current trend continues. Technical Indicators: Waveform Cipher shows a potential bullish divergence at recent price lows, which indicates momentum for a potential upward move. ASL (Advanced Stochastic Line) and HMA Histogram show mixed signals, but the overall sentiment from these indicators points toward a bullish setup in the coming days. Stochastic RSI suggests that Ethereum is currently in an oversold condition, increasing the likelihood of a rebound. The technical setup with momentum indicators and divergences indicates a potential for a price breakout upward, possibly leading toward the top of the channel. Price Targets: Immediate Resistance: The next resistance level is located around $2,750 - $3,000, near the mid-point of the channel. Upper Channel Boundary: The top of the channel is situated near $4,000, a key psychological and technical resistance level. If ETH breaks above this channel, the next major target would be $4,250 - $4,500, indicating a full recovery of the downtrend and a continuation of the broader uptrend. Key Support Levels: $2,400 is acting as immediate support, which aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel. If Ethereum breaks below this level, the next major support lies near $2,200 - $2,000, which is a strong historical support zone. Trading Plan for Ethereum (ETH) Current Market Position: Given the technical analysis, Ethereum appears to be at a critical level within the descending trading channel, with the potential for a bullish breakout. The recent consolidation near the support line suggests an opportunity for a medium-term bullish trade. Entry Strategy: Buy Zone: Enter a long position between $2,550 - $2,600, once confirmation of a bullish reversal or breakout is evident (preferably on increased volume or further confirmation from momentum indicators like RSI/Stoch). Risk Management: Place a stop-loss at $2,400, which is slightly below the channel support and key psychological level. This mitigates downside risk in case of a bearish breakdown. Take Profit Targets: First Target: $2,750 - $3,000 – This is the mid-point resistance of the channel. Partial profits should be taken here, securing gains while allowing the remaining position to run. Second Target: $3,500 - $3,750 – Full break of the channel with increased momentum can take ETH to this level. This is a key level to exit most of the position or lock in more profits. Stretch Target: $4,000 - $4,200 – Ultimate price target based on the potential bullish reversal. If price approaches this level, full profit-taking is advisable as it would hit the channel’s upper boundary and a significant resistance area. Alternative Plan (If Breakdown Occurs): Short Position: If Ethereum breaks below $2,400, consider shorting ETH with a target toward $2,200 - $2,000 as a corrective phase could push ETH lower. In this case, place a stop-loss at $2,500, just above the breakdown level. Position Sizing: Risk only a small portion of your capital (e.g., 1-2%) based on the calculated stop-loss level to ensure risk management and preserve capital in case of invalidation. Ethereum is at a pivotal point within a descending trading channel. Current indicators suggest the possibility of a bullish breakout, but risks remain due to the general downtrend. The trading plan focuses on a conservative entry with clear stop-losses and take-profit levels to manage risk.
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by elfabiiani
BITCOIN IS THE KING. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS + TRADE PLAN!Falling Wedge Pattern: This pattern is a bullish reversal pattern typically seen in downtrends. It indicates that while the price is making lower highs and lower lows, the contraction of the wedge suggests weakening bearish momentum and a potential breakout to the upside. Rectangle Trading Pattern: This is a continuation pattern where the price oscillates between parallel support and resistance levels. A breakout from this range generally indicates the direction of the next significant move. In the provided chart, it appears Bitcoin is oscillating between a support and resistance line, forming a potential rectangle trading pattern. However, the falling wedge (marked with blue trend lines) is key to understanding a possible breakout scenario. Indicators Analysis: VMC Cipher B Divergences (Bottom Panel): This indicator suggests possible bullish divergences, where price makes lower lows but the indicator fails to follow, signaling potential upward momentum. RSI (14 Close): RSI shows moderate momentum, not yet oversold or overbought, providing room for either direction but with a bias towards a potential bullish push considering the context. Stochastic Oscillator: Currently in a neutral position but showing signs of turning upward, suggesting a near-term buying opportunity if the indicator crosses bullishly. HMA+ Histogram: Displays a mixed sentiment, with red bars indicating bearishness, but a possible reversal to green (bullish momentum) could be forming soon. Key Price Levels: Support: The critical support level at around $63,800, visible on the chart, could serve as a strong buy zone if Bitcoin retraces. Resistance: The rectangle’s upper boundary at approximately $72,000 - $75,000 is the key resistance level to break for a confirmed bullish trend continuation. Potential Breakout: The price action is currently at the upper limit of the wedge pattern, suggesting that a breakout is imminent. A bullish breakout could lead to a rally, potentially targeting the next psychological resistance around $80,000. A bearish breakdown from the current wedge could retest lower support levels at $63,800 or even lower toward $60,000 in extreme cases. Timing and Momentum: The presence of the clock and plane icons in the chart might suggest an expectation of a sharp move in the near future, likely pointing towards increased volatility. Time-sensitive action is expected soon, with a bias towards the upside given the current price position within the wedge and rectangle. Trading Plan: Entry Strategy Bullish Scenario: Buy Zone 1: Enter long on a confirmed breakout above $72,000, targeting $75,000 - $80,000. Buy Zone 2: Alternatively, buy the dip near $63,800 (key support), if the price retraces, with a tight stop loss below $62,000. Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below $63,800, short positions could be considered with a target near $60,000, assuming no bullish reversal occurs. Exit Strategy Take Profit Levels: For long positions, scale out at $72,000, $75,000, and $80,000. For short positions, take profits in the $60,000 - $63,000 range. Risk Management: Set a stop loss just below key support levels (for long positions), such as $63,000, to limit downside risk. For short positions, place a stop loss above $72,000, in case of a sudden bullish breakout. Trade Duration: Given the contracting wedge and the signals from the indicators, the trade could last from a few days to a couple of weeks, with high volatility expected soon. Maximize profit opportunities in either direction while minimizing risk. Keep in mind to continuously monitor volume and volatility levels, as they could be decisive for breakout confirmation.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by elfabiiani
JASMY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS + TRADE PLAN (at the breaking point)Let’s break down the technical analysis for JASMY/USDT (Blaž Fabjan) Falling Wedge Pattern: Resistance: The upper trendline of the wedge shows that price has consistently been making lower highs, but the slope is not steep. Support: The lower trendline connects lower lows, but the declines are shallow, indicating sellers are losing strength. A breakout from the wedge, especially on strong volume, often leads to a bullish trend reversal. Volume: The volume bar shows moderate activity, but for the breakout to be valid, you will need confirmation through an increase in trading volume. Current volume is around 34.85M, which should increase significantly during a confirmed breakout. Momentum Indicators: VMC Cipher B Divergences (Market Cipher Indicator): Shows red dots indicating bearish divergence. However, this indicator could shift quickly depending on market movement. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 41.82, it is in the lower range of the neutral zone, indicating oversold conditions. A move above 50 would strengthen the bullish case. Stochastic RSI: At 13.47, this indicator is signaling extreme oversold conditions, which may imply that a rebound is likely. Hull Moving Average (HMA): Displays slight bearish momentum (red), but this could reverse once a breakout happens from the wedge. Price Levels to Watch! Breakout Level: If JASMY breaks the wedge's upper resistance (approximately 0.0193 - 0.0195 USDT), this would confirm the pattern. A sustained breakout with high volume could push the price higher. Support Level: Immediate support lies near 0.0188 USDT, based on the lower wedge trendline. A breakdown below this level could invalidate the bullish reversal. Resistance Level (Post Breakout): After breaking the wedge, the next target is 0.0210 USDT, a key resistance level highlighted on the chart. A further target can be 0.0220 USDT. TRADING PLAN Entry: Aggressive Approach: Enter at the current level or as soon as price reaches near the upper wedge resistance (0.0193 - 0.0195 USDT) with a tight stop loss. Conservative Approach: Wait for a confirmed breakout above 0.0195 USDT with increased volume, followed by a retest of the breakout zone. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just below the lower trendline of the wedge, around 0.0185 USDT, to manage risk in case of a breakdown. Take Profit Levels: First Target: 0.0210 USDT (resistance from the previous highs). Second Target: 0.0220 USDT (next significant resistance). Long-Term Target: If the breakout is strong, higher levels like 0.0230 USDT could come into play. Risk Management: Risk no more than 2-3% of your trading capital on this setup. Adjust the stop loss to breakeven once the price hits the first target. Exit Strategy: If the price fails to break the wedge within the next 1-2 candles or breaks below 0.0185 USDT, consider exiting the position to minimize losses. Trailing stops can be used to lock in profits as the price moves toward 0.0210 USDT and beyond. The falling wedge formation suggests that a bullish reversal could be imminent for JASMY. However, traders should watch for confirmation through a breakout above the resistance line with strong volume. Utilize proper risk management to protect against downside risk while positioning for potential gains.
Long
by elfabiiani
2024-10-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Sideways again. No deeper meaning to it. Nasdaq has not touched the daily 20ema over the last days but is creeping higher again. Lows are bought so it’s reasonable to expect bears to give up unless something unexpected happens (e.g. very bad earnings but the probability is very low). Bull wedge has not a lot of room anymore, so the odds of a big breakout, this week, are good. nasdaq e-mini futures comment : We are moving in a nested bull channel inside the bigger bull wedge. We are making higher highs and higher lows again but barely. Buying above 20500 has been unprofitable for a week now but also selling below 20400. One side will give up soon, can wait for the bigger breakout instead of trading this trading range. Having said that, bulls are still in control since bears could not even touch the daily ema for two weeks now. current market cycle: Bull trend (nested bull wedges) key levels: 20000 - 21000 bull case: Bulls grinding this higher again but we also see decent selling in between. It’s buy low and sell high inside the channel. Don’t overstay your welcome in positions and don’t bet on a breakout. Their next target is a breakout above the current channel and a retest of 20700. Above that they would need a daily close above 20700 and then market is free to retest 21000+ again. Invalidation is below 20300. bear case: Bears need a daily close below 20300. If they get that, next target would be 20200 and then they have a decent chance of testing 19900 again, where the bull trend line from August runs through. So even if they get all that, the downside is probably very limited for now. Invalidation is above 20700. short term: Neutral medium-long term: Very likely a retest of the ath before I expect a correction 10% or more, before another year end rally. I do think we see 21000 before we see 19600. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying the US open 20400 since previous support was 20340ish and upside potential was to 20500 at least.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2024-10-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bull surprise and the actual breakout above both the daily 20ema and the bear trend line. Bear gap to 72.6 is not yet closed but with good follow through tomorrow they could get it. I do think longs are much better here than shorts and we could finally disappoint bears again. Could retest the bear trend line tomorrow, that means that a deep pullback to 69.7 or 70 is possible. There I would look for longs again. comment: Bullish breakout and my major trend reversal theory was good. Bulls now should not let this drop below 69.5 again. We could see a retest of ~70 again before we go higher. I will only look for longs on this tomorrow and anything below 70.5 is a decent trade. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 71 bull case: Targets for the bulls are now 72.6 to close the bear gap and above that is 75. No more words needed for this. Invalidation is below 69.5. bear case: Bears need to get this below 69.5 again to continue the trading range or otherwise we see a bigger move upwards to the given targets. Have we already seen the giving up from the bears today? If we stay above 70.5, then it’s likely so. If they get it below 69.5 again, next target is 69.26 where I expect most bull stops to be and that would be a very important price for both sides. If bears print 69.5, a continuation of the trading range 68 - 70.5 is most likely. Invalidation is above 72.3. short term: Bullish as long as we stay above 69.5. Neutral below. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: Will do a swing long on a pullback tomorrow. trade of the day: Long since bar 6 or the double bottom around 69.3.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
DreamAnalysis | DOT Analysis: Key Triggers and Levels✨ Welcome to today’s analysis! In this post, I’ll be analyzing DOT for futures trading and sharing key triggers for this coin. The analysis is done on both the daily and 4-hour timeframes. 📅 Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily chart, after DOT reached the resistance at $11.396, the price reversed into a downtrend, forming three waves before hitting the support level at $4.003. Since breaking below $8.365, the SMA99 indicator has consistently acted as a strong resistance above the price. 📊 Currently, after months of consolidation between the $4.003 and $4.866 levels, and forming a range (box) between these two zones, we can expect a potential breakout to the upside due to the gradual increase in buying volume. The SMA99 is also approaching the price, and with the growing volume and compression within the range, there's a good chance the SMA99 could be broken as well. If the resistance at $4.866 breaks, the next resistance levels will be $5.636 and $6.415. Conversely, if the support at $4.003 is lost, the next support zone will be at $3.627. 📅 4-Hour Timeframe Analysis On the 4-hour chart, DOT has been ranging for a while and is currently within an ascending channel. The price has bounced off both the top and bottom of the channel three times, showing strong reactions. 📈 For a long position, the trigger is a break above $4.572, but this is only valid if buying volume increases and the RSI is above the 50 line to confirm bullish momentum. The target for this long position is the top of the box, with the main trigger for a long being a break above $4.92. 📉 For a short position, the current trigger is a break below $4.18. However, if the price forms a new structure in the future, this trigger could shift higher. For now, the break of this level, which is just below the ascending channel, could be a good short trigger. The target for this short position is the bottom of the box, with the main short trigger being a break below $4.003. 🔼 By following these key levels and triggers, you can position yourself effectively in the futures market for DOT. ❌Disclaimer This is not financial advice; it is merely my personal opinion on how the coin might move. Always conduct your own research before making any decisions.
Long
by DreamAnalysis
GOLD recovered after adjusting from the target levelOANDA:XAUUSD recovered after a correction since reaching the reader attention target increase in previous issues at 2,741 USD. Gold soared to a new all-time high on Monday hitting $2,740.60 an ounce. Uncertainty over the US presidential election and war in the Middle East have contributed to gold's rally, which has been fueled by expectations of lower Fed interest rates. Gold prices have risen this year and have consistently hit record highs, a recovery that has accelerated over the past few months as the Federal Reserve moved to cut interest rates. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and upcoming US elections are also increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Citi Research raised its three-month gold price forecast in a report on Monday, citing a possible continued slowdown in the US labor market, interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased gold purchases. physical and ETF funds. The bank raised its 3-month gold price forecast to $2,800 from $2,700 previously and said its 6- to 12-month gold price forecast is $3,000. Specifically, the report said: “We note that despite weak retail physical demand in China and rising US interest rates, gold and silver have performed very well since the Fed cut interest rates by 50 points. basis last month and nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations.” According to the latest Washington Post poll, Republican candidate Trump and Democratic candidate Harris are still tied in 7 important states. However, on core issues such as the economy, inflation and immigration, Trump's approval rating is higher than Harris's. A Trump victory would mean a completely different story, with more taxes and restrictions likely to negatively impact inflation, forcing the Fed to abandon its current loose monetary policy, meaning If Trump wins the election, it is likely that the USD will strengthen again and gold will come under significant pressure. Regarding the situation in the Middle East, according to local authorities, Israel conducted air strikes across Lebanon at night, targeting Hezbollah's financial activities. "We will continue to fight Iran's proxies until the country collapses," said Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after adjusting from the target increase of 2,741 USD, gold recovered when approaching the nearest support level at the Fibonacci extension level of 0.786% price point of 2,711 USD. The current recovery is significant and is once again close to the key technical level at $2,741, the $2,741 level being the confluence of resistance of the upper channel edge and the 1% Fibonacci extension. If gold breaks above $2,741 it will be primed for a new bull run ahead, and indeed the target after gold breaks $2,741 is not to be found beyond round price points like 2,750 – 2,800 USD. During the day, structurally and the short-term trend remains unchanged to the upside with upward momentum remaining very strong as the Relative Strength Index points steeply upward without any signs of a bend or heading down from the overbought area, although the room for price increases is no longer large, there will still be enough motivation for shock increases (short and strong) before adjusting downward. The upward trend in gold prices on the daily chart will be noted by the following technical points. Support: 2,711 – 2,700USD Resistance: 2,741 – 2,750USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2762 - 2760⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2766 →Take Profit 1 2755 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2750 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2694 - 2696⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2701 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2706
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
PayPal (PYPL): Elliott Wave update - final target in sightSince our entry in PayPal, the stock has performed exceptionally well, respecting the Elliott wave structure and currently providing us with a return of over 35%. This price action demonstrates how effectively PayPal follows the Elliott wave count, reinforcing our bullish outlook. We have now set our stop loss at break even, allowing us to safeguard our gains while continuing to benefit from potential upward movement. During the recent wave (4), we chose not to enter, but it's important to note that the price respected the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level precisely, indicating a strong likelihood that similar levels will be respected in future corrections. PayPal is currently advancing through wave (5), and we anticipate this wave to conclude soon. Our target for the larger wave (iii) stands at $81, with wave (5) potentially reaching up to $84. However, there is a possibility that wave (5) may conclude before reaching the wave (iii) target. Therefore, we will closely monitor the situation, keeping our alerts ready to react as needed. Once PayPal moves into the $81 target area, we will look to secure additional profits. Should the price action align with our projections, we will consider re-entering at wave (iv) for further opportunities. Until then, we let our position continue running.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
2024-10-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Sideways movement with some lower lows but closes were mostly weak. Neutral going into tomorrow, since both sides can get the breakout. Market is still controlled by bulls until we close below the daily 20ema and those are far away. dax futures comment: Look at the daily or 4h chart, cause the lower time frames are misleading. This is not as bearish as it looks on the 15m chart. It’s still just a minor pullback in this bull trend and we still have not touched the daily ema. The bull trend line and daily ema are coming closer and we will probably chop more until we hit them. Then we see where the market wants to go next. I still expect 20000 but not much more. I am neutral until I have seen 20k or daily close below 19300. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Bulls did not find enough buyers above 19780 but they bought 19600, which was expected and important. We did not learn much and nothing changed to what I wrote in my weekly outlook. Invalidation is below 19500. bear case : Bears had a minor pullback but stayed inside the trading range under the ath. Nothing to get excited about. Will they try to get follow through tomorrow and fight for this to hit 19500? Less likely than bulls buying the dip again. Invalidation is above 19820. short term: Neutral inside given range. Still favoring the bulls for 20k but we could hit 19400 first. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 19770 since market found no buyers above that price and produced many tails. The EU open was just weakness and we did not stop until we hit 19600.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-10-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Trading range 68 - 70.6 continues. Neutral as it gets in between. Don’t over analyse this range. comment : Bulls fighting for 70 and there is a chance this today was a lower low major trend reversal and we go up from here. Validation is only a daily close above 71, so don’t be early like me last week. Continuation of the trading range is a bit more likely than a bullish breakout. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 71 bull case: Bulls want to keep 70 support and break above the bear channel now. They still need to break the bear trend line and above the daily 20ema. Given the current chart, you simply can not hold longs above 70 for now. Invalidation is below 67.7. bear case: Bears keeping this at the lows is good for them. They could still try to get a third leg down to retest the September low 63.46 but right now that is as unlikely as bulls breaking above 71. I do think one side will give up this week and we see a bigger move. Do not trade on hopes of an event which could sent oil prices higher. That is not a trading strategy, that is gambling. Invalidation is above 71. short term: Neutral inside given range. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long 68.6 since it was previous support and close enough to the bull trend line to expect it to hold. Was good for 150+ ticks.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD is fully supported with a low data trading weekDue to escalating tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty about the US election and expectations of looser monetary policy, OANDA:XAUUSD surged up and created new all-time record highs. The market will still focus on increasing geopolitical tensions after Israel announced the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar was the mastermind of the Hamas attack on southern Israel that sparked the year-long Gaza war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will continue to fight until all hostages captured by Hamas last year are released, while US President Joe Biden said it is time for the war to end. During times of geopolitical and economic instability, investors often turn to gold as a safe haven asset. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold, due to risk aversion and concerns about instability in global markets. On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank could cut interest rates again in December. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders also see a 90.4% chance of a Fed rate cut. interest rate in November. Since gold does not yield interest, a rate cut could reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold and increase its appeal. This week, the People's Bank of China will announce its decision on interest rates. In September this year, the People's Bank of China kept the one-year prime lending rate (LPR) and five-year LPR unchanged at 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively. The larger LPR cut should be seen as an impetus to push gold prices even higher early next week. S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October next Thursday. If the PMI unexpectedly falls below 50, indicating a contraction in private sector business activity, the short-term reaction could pressure the dollar and push up gold prices. On the other hand, a positive surprise could support the dollar. The market reaction to the PMI data was not large enough to have a lasting impact on gold prices. In general, this week will be a week with quite a bit of economic data, but with the current basic picture, gold will still be focused on due to escalating geopolitical developments. Readers also need to pay attention. add other threats of conflict from China - Taiwan, North Korea - South Korea,... in addition to the Middle East region, which already has too many potential risks. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: IMF meeting begins Tuesday: BRICS summit begins in Russia Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting, US existing home sales Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims; S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI Survey; US new home sales Friday: US durable goods orders Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD As we have sent to readers throughout the publications, the gold price still has an overall bullish technical structure on the daily chart. Currently, gold closed above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level and this is necessary for it to continue towards the next target of about 2,741 USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci level. With the trend from the price channel in the short, medium and long term, gold is in an upward trend, combined with a strong upward momentum when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points up with a significant slope. There is no sign of a break from the overbought level, a signal that the bullish momentum continues ahead. However, the level of 2,741USD is also the closest current resistance for expectations of a short-term correction because it is also the confluence position of the edge on the price channel with the 1% Fibonacci extension level, correction price drops. Corrections are not considered trends, they only have a short-term impact. Finally, the main technical outlook for gold prices is bullish, the notable points will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,711 – 2,700 – 2,688USD Resistance: 2,741USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2634 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2629 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2699 - 2701⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2695 →Take Profit 1 2706 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2711
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
3
USDJPY moves sideways on positive conditionsAs the US presidential election is approaching, uncertainties will become the main focus of the market. Signs that former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the November election are increasing could contribute to the dollar's overall performance. can keep US interest rates high, thus increasing the appeal of the USD. In the short term, the Bank of Japan's policy statement on October 31 is a notable factor in the near term for USD/JPY and the Bank of Japan's clear attitude towards the adjustment should be observed. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY continues to move sideways but in terms of the overall picture, the possibility of price increases still prevails. The main uptrend is noted by the price channel with key support at EMA21, and as long as USD/JPY remains above EMA21 and within the price channel, it still has a technical upside prospect in the near term. On the other hand, once USD/JPY breaks the confluence of the upper channel edge along with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level it will have room to continue rising with a target then around 151.866 in the short term, more than Fibonacci level 0.618%. The relative strength index is flat above 50 but has not yet reached the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price growth ahead. The general assessment, trend and outlook of USD/JPY is technically bullish and notable levels will be listed as follows. Support: 149.364 – 148.823 – 148.113 Resistance: 150,739 – 151,866
by Xayah_trading
BITCOIN ON ITS WAY UP TO ATH. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS + TRADE PLAN Technical Analysis + TRADE PLAN by Blaž Fabjan. The image highlights an ascending triangle pattern. This is generally a bullish continuation pattern, especially if formed after an uptrend (as indicated in the chart). The price is consolidating near the resistance level, and a breakout is expected. Resistance and Support Levels: Resistance at $73,655.67: This is the key area the price needs to break above for a significant upward move. Support levels are marked at $68,556.87 and lower at $66,333.98. Price is currently hovering around $69,000. Indicators: VMC Cipher B: There are divergence signals, which often hint at potential reversals or strong continuation. The current setting shows a neutral position, but the past few signals indicate potential upward momentum. RSI (14): Currently at 67.42, close to the overbought zone (70). This suggests momentum but also indicates that caution should be exercised as it approaches overbought conditions. Stochastic RSI (14): Shows a reading of 72.43, also close to the overbought region. This is a confirming signal for potential bullishness but requires monitoring to avoid overextension. HMA Histogram: Shows bullish momentum (green) but with signs of weakening. This is typical before a breakout but worth monitoring. Volume: The volume remains neutral but could spike during the breakout above the resistance zone, further confirming the pattern. Trading Plan: Entry Strategy: Aggressive traders: Could consider entering a long position now, given the ascending triangle pattern and anticipation of a breakout. Conservative traders: Wait for a clear breakout above the resistance level at $73,655.67, confirmed by higher volume. Enter long on a retest of this breakout zone. Stop-Loss Placement: Place the stop-loss just below the support level at $68,556.87, or slightly lower to $66,333.98 for more conservative risk management. This will protect against any false breakout or trend reversal. Target Levels: First target: $74,000-$75,000 region (as indicated in the image by the upper blue line). This would correspond with a clean breakout. Second target: If momentum continues, aim for $78,000 - $80,000, which is the next major psychological resistance level. Risk-Reward Ratio: Ideally, maintain a risk-reward ratio of 1:3 or higher. For example, risking 1,000 points for a potential reward of 3,000 points, depending on your entry and stop-loss placements. Exit Strategy: Partial Profit-Taking: Consider taking partial profits at the first target to lock in gains, moving the stop-loss to breakeven to secure the trade. Full Exit: Close the position if price action significantly retraces back into the triangle or breaks below support zones. If the trade reaches the second target zone ($78,000-$80,000), consider a full exit. Risk Management: Limit the position size to avoid overexposure. Risk no more than 2-3% of your portfolio per trade. Use trailing stops to capture more profit as the price moves in your favor. Market Sentiment and Confirmation: The ascending triangle and technical indicators are leaning bullish. However, confirming volume on the breakout is essential to avoid false breakouts. Global economic factors and BTC news should also be considered for additional confirmation, particularly around major support/resistance levels. By following this trading plan and being mindful of the market conditions, you can take advantage of a potential bullish breakout while maintaining proper risk management.
Long
by elfabiiani
1
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bulls nowhere to be found. We are near the minor bull trend line starting from the September low below 64 and it is more likely that this trend line holds and we do not go below the October low 65.74. Can you long this based on that assumption? I would not. Wait for bigger buying pressure and break of the bear trend line currently around 70.4. Can you sell this? On a pullback yes, but not below 70. Quote from last week: comment: Bullish doji on the weekly with big tails above and below. 71.5 is a good low and likely to hold. I do expect another try by the bears though. Only question now is will we see 77+ before 74? I don’t know. So watch for momentum and hope along. I still favor the bulls for at least a retest of 77/78 but I do think we can hit 80 again. Given the strength of the move up, it is reasonable to expect a bigger second leg to 80 or higher. comment: Bulls started ok on Monday and the close was neutral but Tuesday really killed every last bull who bought above 71 and hoped for a second leg up above 75. Market has now left a giant bearish island reversal between 71 and 72.5 and that is as bearish as it gets. Bulls last hope now is to hold above the bull trend line at 68. current market cycle : trading range (triangle on the weekly tf) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: No more bullish thoughts from me for now. Only an event can save the bulls. Monday they had another chance and they blew it on Tuesday. Now market has formed a big bear wedge but the hope that this will break to the upside is slim. Bull trend line at 68 has to hold or bulls will give up until 65. Invalidation is below 68 bear case: Bears won last week big time. Now they want to run all the stops below 65 and retest 63.46. Problem with their case is the bull trend line and the bear wedge. We are trading at the lows and above the bull trend line, which is a bad spot for new shorts. Any short around the daily 20ema near 71 is probably a decent trade. Invalidation is above 72. outlook last week: short term: Neutral but expecting a retest of 77 and higher again. The closer to 74 you can long this, the better is what I think. → Last Sunday we traded 75.56 and now we are at 68.69. That outlook was garbage. short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bullish pattern, added bear gap and bear wedge.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: 4 consecutive good bull bars last week and we are on our way to 2800. I have two trend lines pointing to at least 2760, so the last thing I want to be here is bearish. Clearly W5 of this rally and we will likely see bigger profit taking into year end or early next year. Quote from last week: comment: Longer pullback than expected and stopped out on a long but got back in since 2620 held and bulls rallied hard on Friday. I do think it’s bullish only and we will likely make a new ath and also a decent chance to break above again for 2750+. comment: Bullish it was and still is. 2800 is the next big target to hit. After 4 very strong consecutive bull bars, you can not hold a bearish thought while the market makes daily new ath. Two upper bull trend lines are still to hit, one of them leads to 2760 and the other to 2800. On the monthly chart we are in a 8 month micro channel upwards without any selling pressure. At some point market will pull back more and we will see a correction but until we see much greater selling pressure, we can not trade on hope. current market cycle: very strong bull trend key levels: 2650 - 2800 bull case: All arguments are on the bull side and they have a big round number ahead. Any pullback will likely be bought, unless some event would change that. Invalidation is below 2650. bear case: Bears got nothing right now. If they somehow break below the most recent trend line below 2650, that would be a start but they would have to keep the market below 2700 then and make it go more sideways longer before it can reverse more. They know it’s the third leg up (W5) and 2800 is the obvious target. Most will likely not do much until we hit it. Invalidation is above 2820. outlook last week: short term: Bullish for 2700+ → Last Sunday we traded 2676 and now we are at 2730. Perfect outlook, hope you made some. short term: Bullish for 2800. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None chart update: Added latest bull gap
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 4 different upper bull trend lines for multiple wedges and all are kinda valid. You just never know which one will be most respected by the algo’s. 6000 is the target, much more likely we get there before a bigger correction. Don’t try to be the first bear on this. Quote from last week: comment: Two decent days were enough for the bulls to make new ath. Again a bad place to trade, 8 points below the new ath. We have nested bull wedges and market broke above the bigger one. Odds favor some pullback but I would rather wait and be flat than to short this. comment : Monday made the 50 points higher and that’s all bulls achieve last week. We had two pause bars on the daily chart with Tuesday and Thursday but that was not enough to put doubt in bulls minds that this rally is over. 6000 is the target and, same as dax, we will likely hit it one way or the other. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5800 - 6000 bull case: Bulls know technically we are at the top of them all and the rally is on it’s last legs. Big round numbers are still just too good to not hit if history tells us anything. Bears are not doing anything and not enough bulls are taking profits, so the market only knows one direction. As long as we are staying above the two bull trend lines that are closest, bulls are good and we continue. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears are not doing enough. They have many reasonable targets below but what good are those if the 4h 20ema keeps getting bought almost the entire week? Can you sell new highs for a scalp? Sure. Bears need anything below 5800 to start having arguments. Reasonable scalp is probably a break below 5850 for 5800 but as of now, there isn’t much more to expect for Monday. I am open to surprises though. Overall I just doubt many bears want to short 5900 when they know everyone wants to see 60000 and there is much more value to short there. Invalidation is above 6050. outlook last week: short term: Neutral since we are exactly at the top of two big patterns and 8 points below the ath. Sitting on hands is best here. → Last Sunday we traded 5859 and now we are at 5906. Neutral wasn’t too bad since market made 60 points on the week. Wasn’t good either, I know. short term: Neutral between 5870 - 5930 and bullish above 5930 for 6000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted the many bull trend lines to show it’s pure guesswork which one will be respected. All are valid until clearly broken. Big dotted means that the pattern is on the weekly or monthly chart, and some breaks above are tolerable and do not mean the pattern is invalid. Close is always close enough.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.20 - 10.25Last Week : Last week Globex opened and held over Value, for any weakness from there we needed to either get back under Value middle or tag VAH and come back in, instead we pushed up into VAH before the RTH which brought in more buying and gave us a push to test the upper Edge of this HTF Range we have accepted in. As mentioned Monday first tags of big HTF areas like that more often than not give a reaction into opposite direction, which we got the following day with a flush back into Value but that supply was bought up and we again pushed outside of Value. Last two days of the week we ended up balancing between VAH and Edge keeping the price inside the new HTF Range with a close right under the Edge, under Monday and Thursday Highs. This Week : This week I am leaning towards us staying within the current HTF Range as we again don't have much of market moving data coming. Something to look for is if we still have strong enough buying in/over Value then we could continue balancing around this current Intraday Range of 930s - 880s BUT we do have a week of Supply built up here and we are right at the Edge of the HTF Range which tells me that unless we can build up inside the Edge then push over and continue to VAL above or hold the Edge on pull backs after taking it then I wont be looking for much higher prices from here but instead for a possible return back to VAH and possibly a move back inside Value into 880s - 40s Intraday Range, with supply above we could see a return back to 870 - 50s and even pushes towards 40s and VAL. If we do make moves towards VAL we need to be careful with looking for too much continuation under 50 - 40s unless we can take out VAL and show clear acceptance under it, until then we can spend time balancing around this current Value thats if we get back inside of course which would mean for pushes out of VAH and VAL would find their way back inside eventually. We could continue to grind higher here to start the week and attempt to push inside the Edge to try and build up there but as mentioned careful looking for continuation unless we get through the Edge top and don't come back in.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 21 - Oct 25]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD continuously increased sharply from 2,637 USD/oz to 2,723 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,721 USD/oz. According to market observations, gold prices have skyrocketed in recent days due to the impact of many supporting factors: First, the FED warned that it will continue to cut interest rates, although the extent of the FED's interest rate cuts may be less than the recent decision. Not only the FED, but many other central banks have also been implementing their plans to cut interest rates. This increases the appeal of gold. Second, the level of public debt worldwide is even worse than current forecasts, while the measures that countries are taking will not be enough to prevent a sharp increase in public debt. According to the IMF, global public debt will exceed 100 trillion USD, equivalent to about 93% of global GDP, by the end of this year and will reach nearly 100% of global GDP by 2030. Third, as central banks continue to walk the thin line between promoting economic growth and controlling inflation to prevent stagflation, global geopolitical tensions appear to be increasing day by day. Major conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, growing threats between Russia and NATO, Israel-Palestine conflict, tensions between Israel and the US with Iran, tensions between North Korea and South Korea, and many more threats Another threat has been increasing the role of gold as a haven. Fourth, after Russia was removed from the SWIFT system on March 1, 2022, BRICS central banks increased gold reserves at a record pace, promoted currency swaps, and promoted transactions. across borders between BRICS countries is a sign that they are preparing for a global monetary reset. Meanwhile, BRICS member countries account for about 40% of global GDP. This will certainly have a negative impact on the USD. Fifth, central banks of many countries are continuing to promote gold purchases to increase the proportion of gold in national foreign exchange reserves, causing the proportion of USD in foreign exchange reserves of many countries to decrease. down, potentially at risk of USD depreciation. With so many of the above influencing factors, especially geopolitical conflicts, next week's gold price may increase even higher. However, the increase in gold prices is being driven by FOMO psychology, which will pose strong profit-taking risks, especially when geopolitical tensions cool down. 📌Technically, the price is constantly setting new high price thresholds, when in turn breaking through old peak milestones, specifically in the H1 chart, the gold price is approaching the 161.8 Fibo zone, and next week it may continue to conquer. Recovering the Fibo threshold of 261.8 around the round resistance level of 2,800 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.741USD Resistance: 2.688 – 2.700 – 2.711USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2801 - 2799⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2620 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
$SPY Outlook for OCT 21, 2024AMEX:SPY headed into this week is an inside bar / 1 / harami. Means an explosive move is coming. Got a 2-1-2 going into Monday. The overall market structure is still bullish with higher lows and higher highs. There's no real catalyst ' yet ' for a big bearish move. I'd watch how Sunday night's global opens and see what transpires during the London session of NYSE:ES SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ There still a GAP downside that was not completely filled last week. #SPY is in this rising wedge pattern and been respecting the TL (Green/Red). The pivot for SPY will be 583.99 - 584.55. If the bulls hold above that, you will see 585.39 get taken and then potentially 586.12. Failure by the bears to stop the move up and 587/587.35/588 will be on the path. If the bears take control and break the pivot zone, then you will see 583.67 / 583.2 / 582.6 / 582.33 and 581.82 / 581.5 / 580.9 Market Structure starts to change with a break of 582.16. A true MSS comes at 565 break. Keep in mind, there is a divergence between NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE! #SPY #MSFT NASDAQ:AAPL #AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN #AMZN NASDAQ:QQQ #QQQ #ICT NYSE:ES #ES SP:SPX #SPX #thestrat SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ AMEX:SPY #NQ NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:TSLA #TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD #NVDA #AMD
AMEX:SPY
by SADnation
Nasdaq Monthly Analysis - Possible Measured Move CorrectionThere may be a lot of choppy price action at the top of this trading range until price definitively starts to trend down to facilitate the correction or break out to make new highs. The reason for speculation that Nasdaq may be due for a correction is based on the current impulsive wave's similarity to the previous impulsive wave in both price and time. If the current impulsive wave has reached exhaustion it will be an approximate measured move of the previous impulsive wave with increase factors of: 1.022 increase in price range (10,365÷10,142) 1.046 increase in days to climax (637÷609) If the upcoming correction is also a measured move of the previous correction, using the calculated increase factors, the correction should be projected to occur over approximately 340 days (325×1.046) and decline by approximately 6,483 Points (6,344×1.022). This would bring price to 14,309 (20,792-6,483) around the date of June 16, 2025, which would also bring price back to the trend line. The projected correction, based the listed calculations, may retrace 77 Points below the 61.8% level (14,386-14,309). It is also worth mentioning that the previous correction retraced 76 Points below the 61.8% level (10,503-10,427). This difference in retracement below 61.8% is a factor increase of 1.013 (77÷76). On the monthly timeframe, technical indicators such as Stochastic and RSI show price as overbought.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by MartialChartsFX
6
Gold reached all-time high and hit weekly targetHello traders, As you can see gold reached all time high time record.And reached the weekly target as anticipated, so the analysis went to our favor and gave us a Great trade. After gold broke the fourr hour level, it Made a break and a retest and made a rebound on the one hour time frame at exactly 2673 The bullish momentum took place againand buyers.Took control of the market and pushed gold higher and higher until reached the weekly target. After this long run making a tree leg extension as you can see on the chart, there is a high probability that the market will reverse.And we might see a huge sell off of gold in order to breathe until.Buyers and bullish momentum comes back again and takes the gold market higher again because this is very normal. After a long run being bulish or bearish.There should always be a big.Correction. Remember.After every long run there is a steep pullback and that's what we gonna see in the coming days. So guys.Be prepared for selling gold, but not this week, probably next week or the following week.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by YMtradingsystem