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Fundamental Analysis

Gold vs. Silver: Is the Ratio Signaling a Major ShiftIntroduction: Precious metals are displaying promising price action, warranting a closer look at the gold AMEX:GLD to silver AMEX:SLV ratio. This ratio provides valuable insights during bull markets: Bullish Silver: In a strong bull market, silver typically outperforms gold, causing the ratio to decline. Gold Leading: Recently, gold has taken the lead, advancing in a corrective rally, but there are signs this could change. Analysis: Inverted Saucer Formation: On the gold-to-silver ratio chart, a large inverted saucer formation is emerging. This bearish pattern indicates a potential breakdown below key support levels, signaling silver’s outperformance in the months ahead. What to Watch: A confirmed breakdown of support in this ratio could signal a major shift in favor of silver. If silver outperforms, prices could surge to retest its 2011 highs of $48-$50 next year. Gold Outlook: Despite the shift in favor of silver, gold remains bullish. A breakout could target significant upside, with price projections of $3,300-$3,400. Trade Setup: Silver Bullish Setup: Trigger: A breakdown in the gold-to-silver ratio, confirming silver’s relative strength. Target: SLV retesting $48-$50. Stop Loss: Manage risk by placing stops near recent support levels in silver. Gold Bullish Setup: Gold continues to show strength, targeting $3,300-$3,400. Monitor for breakouts in gold prices alongside silver’s potential surge. Conclusion: The precious metals setup looks increasingly bullish. The gold-to-silver ratio is hinting at a shift toward silver outperformance, a hallmark of true bull markets. If this scenario plays out, silver could retest its 2011 highs, while gold targets new all-time highs. This is a chart and setup worth keeping a close eye on in the coming months. Which metal do you think will lead the charge? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include charts showing the gold-to-silver ratio with the inverted saucer formation, key support levels, and projected breakdown targets. Add gold and silver price charts highlighting bullish setups.) Tags: #Gold #Silver #PreciousMetals #GLD #SLV #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingIdeas
AMEX:GLD
by Richtv_official
CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period... BULL MARKET PULL BACKS Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels. The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE). We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post). ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING? As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market. CME GAP Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles. To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post. The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close. NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle. 21W EMA & 20W SMA Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC. ORANGE TREND LINE Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher. * Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top. * Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s). Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
CME:BTC1!
by Brodie
Gold will fall excessively.Scenario takes stage and now it's time.From early Jan to dec,gold almost hits half of its price when hits $2790, Now before 2025,market buyers will taking profit from what thay have made this year. $1980 to 2790. That's huge from all over the period of trade in gold. Fundamentals will support this idea and technical will favour it. As fed signals fewer rate cuts next year n market falls in technical correction cycle. So now sold n hold untill another shift in *geopolitics*. Expected tgt $2560-2540-2400.
TVC:GOLDShort
by ktra_commodities
$GBINTR -U.K Interest RatesECONOMICS:GBINTR (December/2024) source: Bank of England The Bank of England left the benchmark bank rate steady at 4.75% during its December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations, as CPI inflation, wage growth and some indicators of inflation expectations had risen, adding to the risk of inflation persistence. The central bank reinforced that a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate and that monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The central bank will continue to decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$JPINTR - Japan's Interest RateECONOMICS:JPINTR (Devember/2024) source: Bank of Japan -The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its final meeting of the year, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and meeting market consensus. The vote was split 8-1, with board member Naoki Tamura advocating for a 25bps increase. Thursday's decision came despite the US implementing its third rate cut this year, as the BoJ needed more time to assess certain risks, particularly US economic policies under Donald Trump and next year's wage outlook. The board adhered to its assessment that Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery, despite some areas of weakness. Private consumption continued its upward trend, aided by improving corporate profits and business spending. Meanwhile, exports and industrial output remained relatively flat. On inflation, the YoY figures have ranged between 2.0% and 2.5%, driven by higher service prices. Inflation expectations showed a moderate rise, and the underlying CPI is expected to add gradually.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Long #SKI - Spot Entry no LeverageAlright so almost all alts have taken a nosedive since Fed made announcement. Ski Mask Dog is one of the few that had a healthy retrace from going parabolic for weaks. Retrace was due to people taking profits that gone in weeks/months ago I bought on the last touch of the trendline for about a 0.16 average Has major potential to break out of bull flag soon as sell pressure has gone down and and Ski is at a major discount. Last few wicks reached deep to grab liquidity and we have had a strong bounce upwards after 3rd touch on bull flag Also Ski was on New york Times billboard today. Remember when WIF was on the Vegas sphere and the run that followed? Sometimes a strong community and advertising the right places beats the TA or even tokens that have way better tech and ability. Be careful as things are still uncertain and we could have another retrace but Ski is a still at the current price. DCA if you want but try not to wait for too much of a discount so you don't miss the move. No take profit target as I'm holding until it hits $1.00 which I would bet on happening as a minimum. *Look at the Market Cap of Ski compared to the other meme coins that have run into billion dollar market caps and you can see why SKI gives you a chance for multiples on you money instead of a 2-5x
UNISWAP3BASE:SKIWETH_0EA134.USDLong
by TommyGun24
Fundamental Analysis of EURUSDEURUSD is trading in the support area which has been respected by the price action since December of 2022. Similarly, there is an area of resistance. There are two scenarios based on the current geopolitical tension and the policy of the new administration in the US. Scenario#1: Risk OFF or USD depreciates against EUR and other currency pairs The new US administration will take charge in Jan 2025, and by that time if the Scenario#2 has not happened then the EUR should appreciate significantly against USD. The new administration is expected to be business friendly. The US economy should get an ultra-boost because of lower taxes and less regulations. There are many other promises made by the winning party like the increase in import tariffs on all the countries, deportation etc., maybe those promises were to attract voters. We don't know how it will play out, so we go with the simple approach that republican party means less regulation, hence business friendly. Scenario#2: Risk ON or USD appreciates against EUR and other currency pairs This scenario could play out even before the new administration takes charge!!! We don't know if it is a bluff from Russia or a real threat, but the fear of nuclear war can be frightening. Whenever there are major escalations in the world, the USD appreciates and that is as simple as 1 + 1 = 2, right?
by spranav
1
DRI Darden Restaurants : A Deep Dive into Its Recent Performance "In a world of shifting tastes and tighter wallets, Darden Restaurants serves up a recipe for resilience and growth." Introduction Darden Restaurants Inc. ( NYSE:DRI ) has stirred investor interest with its strong premarket performance, showcasing its relevance in a turbulent restaurant sector. As a major operator of beloved brands like Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, Darden’s recent financial results offer valuable insights into the state of full-service dining and its future prospects. Here’s a breakdown of Darden’s latest performance and what it means for investors. Recent Financial Performance Q2 FY25 Earnings: Darden exceeded expectations with an adjusted EPS of $2.03, just edging out the consensus estimate of $2.02. Revenue hit $2.89 billion, boosted by: 2.4% blended same-restaurant sales growth. The addition of 103 restaurants from the Chuy’s acquisition. Net Income and Sales: Net Income: $215.7 million for the quarter, showcasing its profitability despite inflationary headwinds. Sales Growth: Up 6.0% YoY, reflecting both organic and acquisition-driven expansion. 💡 "In an industry battered by inflation and changing habits, 6% growth isn’t just survival—it’s strength." Same-Store Sales Growth Darden’s same-store sales increased by 2.4%, signaling organic growth. Olive Garden: A steady performer. LongHorn Steakhouse: The star player, leading growth for several quarters. However, performance wasn’t uniform. Fine dining and other segments saw declines, highlighting the importance of diversification within Darden’s portfolio. Operational Efficiency and Strategic Moves Efficiency Measures: Darden is leveraging technology and refining menus to manage costs effectively, sustaining margins amid inflation. Strategic Acquisitions: The Chuy’s acquisition expands Darden’s reach and offerings, laying groundwork for continued revenue and EPS growth. Shareholder Returns: Darden declared a quarterly dividend of $1.40/share, underscoring its strong cash flow and commitment to rewarding investors. Market Sentiment and Stock Performance Stock Reaction: Following the Q2 earnings report, NYSE:DRI jumped 9% in premarket trading to $175.00, reflecting investor optimism. Analyst Views: Analysts are cautiously optimistic, with upward price target revisions. The EPS beat and a strong FY25 outlook have bolstered confidence in Darden’s strategy. Future Outlook Guidance: For FY25, Darden projects: Total Sales: $12.1 billion. Adjusted EPS: $9.40–$9.60 (above consensus). These figures reflect expectations of operational improvements and successful integration of new restaurants. Challenges Ahead: Rising labor costs. Food price volatility. Consumer spending patterns. 💡 "For Darden, the challenge isn’t just cooking up growth—it’s serving it sustainably." Opportunities: Darden is embracing digital transformation, with initiatives like: A partnership with Uber for Olive Garden delivery services. Enhanced digital sales channels targeting new customer segments. Conclusion Darden Restaurants continues to showcase its resilience and strategic foresight in navigating a challenging industry. With strong Q2 performance, a diversified brand portfolio, and promising acquisitions like Chuy’s, Darden is poised for continued growth. However, as always, investors should monitor macroeconomic conditions and Darden’s ability to manage operational costs. For those seeking opportunities in the restaurant sector’s recovery, NYSE:DRI is a stock worth watching. 🚀 Want to stay ahead in market insights? Join DCAlpha.net for exclusive strategies and tools.
NYSE:DRILong
by DCAChampion
BTC CRASH ALERT UPDATEKey Levels and Observations Previous All-Time High (ATH): Clearly marked and seems to have acted as both resistance and psychological reference point. Price briefly tested this level before consolidating below. Resistance Zones: Highlighted in Red: These zones indicate where selling pressure is concentrated. The recent move upwards has struggled near the $106,000 zone (1.618 Fibonacci extension) and the resistance cluster below $108,000. Red Circle near ATH: Indicates a critical rejection zone where bears might be stepping in to control the price. Support Zones: Fibonacci levels from $91,000 to $99,500 (0.618, 0.5, and 0.382 retracement levels) show clear support zones where buyers may accumulate. The green lines below $92,000 show additional support extensions for deeper corrections. Black Swan Warning ("Dump Incoming"): Suggests the possibility of a sudden, sharp decline. This may be speculative but worth noting for risk management. Red zone above $108,000 highlights extreme caution. Trend Lines: Dashed upward trendline indicates the broader uptrend still intact, but a breach below would signal a possible reversal. Market Sentiment: "BTC CRASH ALERT" emphasizes bearish caution. "The Bears are out watchout" adds to the bearish sentiment as Bitcoin approaches resistance zones. Fibonacci Analysis Key Fibonacci Retracement Levels: 0.236 ($99,417): Currently holding as weak support. 0.382 ($100,793): Significant midpoint level currently in play. 0.5 ($101,905) and 0.618 ($103,017): Critical retracement levels to watch for continuation or reversal. 1.618 Extension ($106,436): Serves as an immediate resistance target. Deep Retracement Zone: 0.618 ($95,308) to 1.0 ($92,918) retracement range indicates the strongest support for a larger correction. Scenarios to Watch Bullish Scenario (Breakout): Price breaks and holds above $106,000 (1.618 Fibonacci). Retests and holds $108,000, targeting new highs. Bearish Scenario (Fakeout or Dump): Price fails to sustain $104,000 or falls below $101,000 (0.382 retracement). A sharp correction could target deeper support levels at $95,000–$92,000. Neutral/Consolidation: Price remains range-bound between $101,000 and $106,000, building momentum for a directional move. Actionable Points Shorting Resistance Zones: Monitor for price rejections near $106,000 and $108,000. Bearish candlestick patterns here could confirm a short trade. Buying Support Levels: Look for bullish signals around $95,000–$92,000 or key Fibonacci levels. Breakout Entries: If Bitcoin closes decisively above $106,000, a breakout trade could target $110,000 or higher. Stop-Loss Management: For longs: Place below $95,000. For shorts: Place above $108,000.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by ProWolfTrader_89
11/7/24 - $bird - More interested $7-8/shr11/7/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: $ IDX:BIRD More interested $7-8/shr - mgmt is operating on their own time - beyond M&A, it's hard to see how stock really moves higher in the 3-6 month timeframe, unless it catches some momentum in this whacky environment where rando-stuff-moon. but i'd not bet my dog's tennis ball on it - basically mgmt "taking right" actions still e.g. store closing, gearing up for some interesting product launches/ marketing but it sounds like we get to see this all playing out in 2H25. that's an eternity to wait for a result that wasn't really a beat (inside guidance) and where guidance for 4Q/FY was taken lower. ewww, that doesn't work in this environment. - while balance sheet remains net cash and we can decide how to handle leases (maybe i say it's not $50 but $25 mm of "debt") that still say puts us in a $50 mm net cash position. at the same time we burn 10-15 mm a quarter until someone buys the company or results start to inflect. rough. essentially by 4Q, we'll either be raising with a good story, or stock will have started to work a bit as FCF inflects positive (probably a '26 event at the earliest given my experience operating in reality) - so what's the brand worth? 1x gross profit? 0.5x gross profit? - really hard to say. i think you need to assume someone like NYSE:BIRK , NASDAQ:CROX , NYSE:ONON (even NASDAQ:LULU ) could buy these guys and cut a lot of the SG&A out on their bigger platform. this is why i think multiple of gross profit makes the most sense. - at most i'd say 1x gross profit which if/when you assume buyers would want to see the new lineup in the market (bc the current portfolio is still not growing... so why complicate things for yourself), and take out all the net cash bc we burned it getting there, that's the stock as of y'day call it $10-11/shr or ~90 mm market cap. - but if we need to wait, what's the right discount rate for something like this 25-30%? private equity style? so you're now at probably $7-8/shr today and it waffles up or down depending on how well these marketing/ launches go next year TL;DR... the company's best option is to sell today at some modest premium. i think they've made it quite hard to do so in delaying this decision for years. now they need to swim. and the stock is on it's back heading into tax sell off season and where the ticker is too small cap for (real) institutions to get involved and what would an activist really accomplish in a founder-led situation like this on fire? unfortunately i think this thing is going lower and/or i'm uninterested unless we start entering the mid single digits, call it $7-8, minimally. talk then. stay well. V
NASDAQ:BIRD
by VROCKSTAR