Get started

Fundamental Analysis

12/20/24 - $vtex - Patience paid. 50 bps @5.7412/20/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:VTEX Patience paid. 50 bps @5.74 - buying anything sub $1 bn and nevermind "brazilian" is a big ask in my book - but i love this mgmt team and the biz is growing easily teens bc they have solid B2B customers (who use VTEX to build their site/ payments etc. for instance samsung in latam uses VTEX to run their consumer facing sites+) - i think you need to consider EV to sales here near 3x for a biz that's a. been delivering solid growth and likely continues to do so in mid teens top line b. great mgns, 75% ish GM and expanding EBITDA mgn as the biz gains scale c. cash generative/ not a burner d. net cash balance sheet e. previously mentioned, great mgmt team and solid clients f. valuation reasonable and likely being somewhat affected by the dollar spike which is affecting any tickers that do biz in latam. so this has been the "fly in the ointment" but also the reason (that we didn't know about when i wrote in june) which would give us another two quarters of info and send us into the $5s - obvious buy zone is sub $5, but i know/like this and have a healthy cash balance looking to identify good '25 plays at reasonable px's. so i realize this could easily go another 15-20% lower, and that's fine - it's a situation where all else equal i'd take it to a 1-1.5% position. - the ape zone would be mid to low EUROTLX:4S , but i don't expect that. but it's on my radar for if/when. mr. market sometimes does funny things. V
NYSE:VTEXLong
by VROCKSTAR
Microsoft Update: Key Levels to WatchMicrosoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) is at an important point right now, and here’s what to look out for: If we close above $442: There’s a good chance we’ll see targets at $453 or even $478 as buyers take control. If the price breaks down out of the current range: A correction to $422 or $415 becomes a strong possibility. Stay focused on these levels and let the market show you the way forward. No need to force it—patience pays. Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Mindbloome-Trading
Tesla’s Next Big Move: Here’s What to WatchQuick Tip: If you’re on a losing streak—three trades down—it’s okay to take a break. Don’t let FOMO (fear of missing out) get to you! Set a timer for 15 minutes, step away from your screen, and do something else. Go for a walk, change rooms, or just breathe. No charts for those 15 minutes. You’ll come back clearer and ready to make better decisions. What’s Up With Tesla? Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is at a crossroads, and things could get interesting soon. Here’s what to watch for: If Tesla breaks above $440: We could see the stock climb toward $544, which would be a strong move for the bulls. If Tesla drops below $417: It might head down to $389 or even lower, so be cautious. Keep it simple: watch these levels, stay patient, and let the market show you where it’s going. No need to rush—trade smart! Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
MARKETSCOM:TESLA
by Mindbloome-Trading
End-of-Week Trading Summary.End-of-Week Trading Summary Major Market Movements This week saw significant movements across various markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a sharp decline of 2.3%, primarily driven by concerns over rising interest rates and inflation. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Composite Index fell by 3.1%, with tech stocks leading the downward trend. On a brighter note, the FTSE 100 managed to eke out a modest gain of 0.5%, buoyed by strong performances in the energy and healthcare sectors. Key Events Federal Reserve Meeting: The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% interest rate hike, citing persistent inflationary pressures. This decision was largely anticipated by the market but still led to increased volatility in both equity and bond markets. Bank of Japan's Rate Hike: In a historic move, the Bank of Japan ended its negative interest rate policy by raising rates to 0.1%. This decision caused a sharp appreciation of the yen and triggered a sell-off in risk assets globally. US Non-Farm Payrolls Report: The report showed an unexpected drop in job creation, with only 150,000 new jobs added in November, compared to the forecasted 200,000. This data raised concerns about the strength of the US economy and led to a decline in the US dollar. Important News Stories Global Food Prices: The United Nations' world food price index reached a 19-month high in November, driven by surging vegetable oil prices. This increase has implications for inflation and consumer spending. Amazon Workers Strike: Thousands of Amazon workers across the US are preparing to strike over the holiday season, demanding better working conditions and pay. This could impact Amazon's stock performance and broader market sentiment. China's Car Exports: China's car exports surged as domestic sales slowed, with the country becoming a global leader in electric vehicle production. This shift has significant implications for global trade and the automotive industry. Market Outlook Looking ahead, traders will be closely watching the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Federal Reserve speeches for further clues on monetary policy direction. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and corporate earnings reports will likely play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment..
FX:XAUUSD
by OakleyJM
Market Correction: Key Support Levels and Strategic OpportunitieThe market has experienced a decline over the past few days, leading to the liquidation of leveraged long positions and the introduction of new liquidity. This may represent a healthy correction within the context of the broader market trend, which remains firmly upward. As such, the optimal strategy continues to be to buy on dips. Key levels to monitor include the strong support area around 84,500, with additional support at the 73,000 level. While these support levels may not be reached, it is wise to stay alert for potential buying opportunities if the market approaches them. Take care!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MCFractalStudies
Can Market Turbulence Create Future Innovation?In a dramatic turn of events that sent shockwaves through the pharmaceutical industry, Novo Nordisk's recent setback with its experimental obesity drug CagriSema presents a fascinating case study in market resilience and scientific progress. The company's stock plummeted 24% after trial results showed a 22.7% weight reduction efficacy, falling short of the anticipated 25% target. Yet, beneath this apparent disappointment lies a deeper story of pharmaceutical innovation and market adaptation. The obesity treatment landscape stands at a pivotal crossroads, with the market experiencing exponential growth from its modest beginnings to a staggering $24 billion industry in 2023. Novo Nordisk's journey, alongside competitor Eli Lilly, exemplifies how setbacks often catalyze breakthrough innovations. The CagriSema trial, involving 3,400 participants, represents a clinical study and a testament to the industry's commitment to addressing global health challenges. Looking ahead, this moment of market recalibration might well be remembered as a turning point in the evolution of obesity treatment. With projections suggesting a potential $200 billion market by the early 2030s, the current turbulence could drive even greater innovation and competition. The fact that only 57% of trial participants reached the highest CagriSema dose points to untapped potential and future opportunities for optimization, suggesting that today's apparent setback might pave the way for tomorrow's breakthroughs.
NYSE:NVOShort
by UDIS_View
Rate cuts and their impact on the marketsRate cuts and their impact on the markets The Fed's decisions to cut interest rates, while seeking to stimulate the economy, have had a mixed effect on financial markets. On the one hand, these measures tend to favor equity assets by reducing funding costs and encouraging investment. On the other hand, in an environment of global uncertainty and expectations of recession, rate cuts have been interpreted by some investors as a sign of economic weakness, which has contributed to the fall in stock market indices. In this context, investors have migrated towards assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds, which has generated significant movements in sovereign debt yields. This behavior directly affects traders' strategies during the Quadruple Witching Hour, when position adjustment is usually more intense. Quadruple Witching Hour amid market declines With markets facing recent declines, the Quadruple Witching Hour could amplify volatility due to several factors: 1. Massive position adjustments: Investors looking to protect their portfolios or close open positions could generate sharp movements in stock and index prices. 2. Impact on liquidity: In an environment of uncertainty, liquidity could be reduced, making price movements even more pronounced. 3. Impact on specific sectors: Companies that are more sensitive to interest rates, such as technology and real estate, could experience greater pressure due to changing investor expectations. Outlook and strategies In this environment, investors should be particularly attentive to: 1. Evolving expectations about monetary policy: Any changes in Fed language or economic data could influence market participants' decisions during the Quadruple Witching Hour. 2. Risk management: Using hedging strategies, such as options or inverse ETFs, can be key to mitigating the impact of volatility. 3. Opportunities in volatility: For more experienced traders, sharp price movements may offer opportunities to generate short-term profits. In conclusion, the Quadruple Witching Hour in the current environment of Fed rate cuts and market declines represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Careful planning and a clear understanding of the factors at play will be essential to navigate this period successfully. Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by ActivTrades
Short Term Out-Look for Stock WeaknessThe number of stocks below their 50-day moving average are nearing the 3.618 % Fib-Extension, which does not mean it cannot reach even the 4.618 % level. Most likely to my experiance, stocks will recover short term after todays "witches" have finished their "rituals". I expect intraday to become ugly eventually at some point to draw the candle of a "hanging man". History tells us that it is safe to buy after December 24th after a failed X-Mas rally. Good luck and take responsibility for your trades!
INDEX:S5FI
by Woerle
Continued bearishness in crude oil pricesOn December 17, 2024, oil prices showed a slight stabilization following the drop in U.S. crude inventories and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut. However, gains were limited by expectations that the Fed will slow the pace of cuts in the coming months. Brent crude oil futures rose 20 cents, closing at $73.39 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 50 cents, reaching $70.58. Despite these increases, gains moderated after market close. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a drop in crude oil and distillate inventories, while gasoline inventories increased in the week ending December 13. In addition, total product supply, a key indicator of demand, grew to 20.8 million barrels per day, reflecting an increase of 662,000 barrels from the previous week. Despite the partial optimism around demand, crude oil prices fell briefly following the Fed's announcement to cut interest rates, although the pace of these cuts is expected to slow. The Fed projects only two additional rate cuts through the end of 2025, which could boost oil demand, but also dampen near-term expectations. On technical analysis, crude oil continues to lose value, with the price looking for the $68 area since the start of the European session. The POC mid-zone is around $70.20, and the RSI is highly oversold at 30%. The crossover of the 200-average over the 100-average reinforces the prospect of a bearish continuation, as anticipated in previous weeks. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:LCRUDEShort
by ActivTrades
#USDJPY $USDJPY Rise after Monetary Policy Divergence...The USD/JPY continiues to produce. Latest: The USDJPY has seen an increase over the last three days due to several factors: Monetary Policy Divergence: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to maintain its interest rates, reflecting a dovish stance in contrast to the U.S. Federal Reserve's more hawkish approach. This divergence in monetary policy tends to strengthen the U.S. Dollar against the Yen since investors can borrow Yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding U.S. assets. FOMC Meeting Impact: The recent FOMC meeting indicated a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025, which typically supports a stronger U.S. Dollar. This hawkish cut by the Fed, alongside the BoJ's inaction, contributed to the USDJPY's upward movement. Market Reactions and Technical Levels: Following the FOMC and BoJ announcements, there was an immediate market reaction. The USDJPY broke higher post-BoJ press conference, indicating a breakout possibly influenced by both the Fed and BoJ decisions. Technical analysis suggests that if the pair maintains above certain levels, like 157, it could aim for higher extensions, showing strong market sentiment towards further appreciation of the USD against JPY. Although a pullback at this level would be healty. Speculation on Future Interventions: There's an anticipation that the Japanese Ministry of Finance might intervene at around the 160 level to protect the Yen, but historical interventions have been less effective, suggesting that the USDJPY could continue to rise if these levels are approached (Taking a look at the upper line yellow line at the chart, if this is tested, broaken and holds we could see a great incerease). My target would be at 160- 165 lvl for now if it holds its current price or finds support in event of an pullback at a key level. However always keep in mind, currency movements are also influenced by broader market sentiment, geopolitical events, and other economic indicators. This is not financial advice.
Long
by BaseLineTraders
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 20, 2024 GBPUSDThe Bank of England kept its key rate at 4.75%, which was in line with market expectations. However, three members voted for a rate cut, which came as a surprise and emphasized the regulator's softer stance. This reinforced expectations of significant monetary policy easing in 2025 - the BoE is projected to cut the rate up to four times at 0.25%. In comparison, the Fed is planning less aggressive cuts another 1-2 times, which strengthens the US Dollar's position and puts pressure on the Pound. The economic situation in the UK remains unstable. The Bank of England lowered its GDP growth forecasts for 2024, pointing to weak economic dynamics. Despite the high growth of wages (5.2%), inflation remains above the target level, which requires the preservation of tight monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator noted that its easing will begin only after a steady decline in inflation to 2%. The fundamental background for the British currency remains negative. Investors will follow further statements of the Bank of England and economic data, but in the near future the pound is likely to continue a gradual decline. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold Market Update: Imbalance Liquidation Targets $2620–$2580Gold continues to align with the imbalance liquidation between $2620 and $2580. The recent prominent support at $2605 is under pressure; if it fails to hold, further sweeps around $2619 could occur. The bearish momentum remains intact, aiming to secure weekly demands below the $2600 level. yall should stay cautious, hedge along with AK , and prepare for potential volatility as the market seeks equilibrium .follow for more insights , comment and boost idea
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Ak_capitalist