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Fundamental Analysis

GBPAUD to the moon?Taking a long position on GBPAUD, main reasons being: - BoE holding interest rates for now and less rate cuts are expected next year, could drive more institutions to hold GBP and increase it's value - AUD are trade partners with China who are experiencing significant economic instability - COT traders are 57% long on GBP (+2.14% compared to last week) - COT traders are 52% long on AUD, but are adding more short positions (-4.53% change in net long positions compared to last week) - Retail traders are 93% short on GBPAUD (I find that retail is usually wrong, so this is a positive signal for GBPAUD longs in my book) This trade is more based on Australia's weakness rather than Britain's strength. I was also thinking of shorting AUDJPY (see previous trade idea) or AUDUSD. I couldn't get in a position that I liked on AUDJPY (yet) and I'm already in a short position on EURUSD, so I want to diversify a bit away from the US Dollar. The reason I'm entering here is because it is filling an imbalance candle, and it's also at the 0.682 mark on the Fibonacci retracement tool. If I get taken out I don't mind, there may be better entries on GBPAUD available if that happens, or there may be an opportunity to short AUDJPY instead, which I prefer the fundamentals of. Don't take this as investment advice, I'm just sharing what I'm doing. Please don't follow me blindly, create your own strategy and ideas.
Long
by ciantrades
2
Gold price analysis December 19⭐️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices fell sharply due to the impact of the Fed's less dovish outlook. Fed Chairman Powell emphasized cautious policy in the context of ongoing high inflation risks. The Fed forecasts inflation target to reach 2% in the next 1-2 years, indicating slow progress. The latest dot chart shows few interest rate cuts until 2026, stabilizing the Fed funds rate at 3.4%. ⭐️Technical Analysis Gold prices fell to the 2685 area and were accepted by buyers to push prices up around 2610 in the Asian session. If the European session fails to break 2613, Gold will continue to fall in the European session and the destination is relatively far away at 2585-2558. In case the resistance zone at 2613 is broken, the direction is towards 2633, which is the first corrective wave SELL zone and the second corrective wave SELL zone around 2663
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis. Altseason.📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT The Bitcoin price is trading within a narrowing price range, formed after an unsuccessful test of the major resistance block at $100,000, followed by a correction to the 0.23 Fibonacci retracement level and subsequent consolidation. This has resulted in the formation of a pattern known as a narrowing wedge, the breakout of which could indicate the next direction for BTC price movement. If buyers, supported by fundamental factors, manage to break through the psychological resistance level of $100,000, we can expect a strong upward momentum toward the next resistance zones at $110,000–$120,000 and a test of the global trendline resistance. Conversely, if sellers push the price below the $90,000 support block and establish themselves beneath the EMA 200 line, we anticipate a corrective move toward the 0.5–0.61 Fibonacci retracement levels. These levels coincide with Imbalance zones, where consolidations are needed to close gaps in horizontal volume levels. 📉 Bitcoin market global analysis. When does the altseason start? Bitcoin's dominance has begun a rapid decline, and we are currently witnessing an attempt to break out of a parallel price channel. If it manages to consolidate below the lower boundary of the channel, we can expect further declines in dominance, which would indicate the start of significant capital flows from Bitcoin to altcoins. What are Bitcoin's long-term growth targets? Above the current all-time high (ATH), there are no resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will rely on trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, analysis of large order block clusters in exchange order books, and, of course, indicators: Fibonacci Extension Levels: The nearest growth targets for Bitcoin are the 1.61 and 1.78 Fibonacci extension levels, which lie in the range of $104,000–$112,000. Global Trendline: The next target could be the global trendline drawn based on the peaks of the previous growth cycle. A test of this trendline might occur around the $120,000 level. RSI Analysis: The RSI indicator is currently about 18% away from its resistance trendline. Translating this to Bitcoin’s price chart, this corresponds to a range of approximately $114,000–$120,000. This is where a test of the resistance line may occur, as observed in all previous Bitcoin market cycles. 💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels The Fear and Greed Index remains in the Greed Zone at 76. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has grown to $3.37 billion, while the Bitcoin Dominance Index has fallen to 56.18. According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the largest blocks are at levels 100,000 and 120,000, and the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels: 🟢 Demand zone: 80,000 - 90,000 🔴 Supply zone: 100,000 - 150,000 Levels for long positions: 90,000 - psychological support level 88,000 - large support block 60,000 - large support block Levels for short positions: 100,000 - largest resistance block 110,000 - large resistance block 120,000 - 100,000 - ascending trend line of resistance 📊 Fundamental analysis In November, Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of $6.1 billion—the highest monthly figure since the instrument's launch in January. This indicates growing investor confidence in the asset while favoring the security of regulated ETFs over direct BTC purchases. Record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could support a BTC rally above $100,000. Ethereum and Altcoin Investment Trends Investment inflows into Ethereum (ETH)-focused products reached $634 million, pushing the total for this year to over $2.2 billion, surpassing the previous record of $2 billion set in 2021. Similarly, Ripple (XRP)-based crypto funds received record-breaking investments of $95 million. This surge may be linked to preparations for ETFs on other cryptocurrencies, potentially accelerating the onset of an altseason. Regulatory and Macroeconomic Developments SEC Leadership Announcement: Tomorrow, information may emerge regarding the new chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a key financial regulator overseeing the crypto market. Under current chair Gary Gensler, the SEC has intensified crypto market regulation. The appointment of a crypto-friendly commissioner could boost market sentiment and further support the start of an altseason. U.S. Labor Market Data: Labor market reports are set to be released this week, serving as a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. A continuation of rate cuts by the Fed would likely bolster overall growth in the cryptocurrency market. 🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates: ➤ 12/04, 21:45 - Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. ➤ 12/06, 21:45 - US Unemployment Rate for November. ➤ 12/18, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision. ➤ 12/18, 21:00 - US GDP (q/q) (Q3) ➤ 01/29/2025, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision. 📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator: In November, the price of Bitcoin was in an upward trend. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. 😎 Total price movement by all signals: + 54.92% Maximum price movement: + 42.10% Average price movement: + 13.73% In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement:
by TradeINEX
EUR/JPY restructure into an ascending channelHi guys, we will be looking again in the EUR/JPY Pair as it has broken it's structure quite heavily compared to my previous analysis. Currently we have two options because the pair has dropped towards the lower support level, which we find big amount of support coming in from the buyers. Option 1 - Entry from the current price with two targets : Target 1 : 159.453 Target 2 : 162. 500 After the 2nd target is reached we should be fully in the ascending pattern then we would revisit with new targets towards the upper resistance Option 2 - Entry at 155.300 when we physically touch the strong support level and then enter in a full on ascending / bull trend all the way to 162.500 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Long
by DG55Capital
"Bitcoin to $13M per coin" - Michael SaylorBitcoin annualized performance is 60% on average Let that sink in Most traders trading Bitcoin aren't nowhere near that. 1. Introduction to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy Michael Saylor began by outlining MicroStrategy’s decision to make CRYPTOCAP:BTC its primary treasury reserve asset. He explained that the company sees Bitcoin as a superior store of value and an effective hedge against inflation. Traditional fiat currencies, according to Saylor, are increasingly unreliable due to monetary policies that devalue them over time. By embracing Bitcoin, MicroStrategy positions itself as a pioneer in the corporate adoption of digital assets. 2. Leveraging Zero-Interest Convertible Bonds Saylor delved into MicroStrategy’s innovative financing strategies, particularly the issuance of zero-interest convertible bonds. These bonds, amounting to approximately $3 billion, were issued with a 0% interest rate. This seemingly advantageous rate is a result of high investor demand, driven by the value of the embedded call options within the bonds. The volatility of MicroStrategy’s stock, tied closely to Bitcoin’s price movements, makes these options particularly appealing. NASDAQ:MSTR volatility is about 2X the CRYPTOCAP:BTC volatility. Additionally, the bonds were issued at a 55% conversion premium, the highest for such instruments at the time, reflecting strong market confidence in the company’s strategy. Saylor explained that these zero-interest loans allow MicroStrategy to acquire CRYPTOCAP:BTC without the financial burden of servicing interest payments. This approach enables the company to maximize its exposure to Bitcoin while maintaining financial flexibility. 3. Current Bitcoin Holdings and Financial Impact Saylor provided an update on MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings. As of November 2024, the company owns 279,420 bitcoins, purchased for a total cost of $11.9 billion, with an average acquisition price of $42,692 per Bitcoin. With Bitcoin’s price surpassing $90,000, the company’s holdings are now worth over $25 billion, representing more than a 100% return on investment. He highlighted how this significant appreciation in Bitcoin’s value has bolstered MicroStrategy’s market capitalization and increased shareholder value. The company’s bold approach has attracted considerable attention from institutional investors and positioned it as a leader in the corporate adoption of Bitcoin. 4. Future Outlook for Bitcoin Saylor expressed an extremely bullish outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting that its price could rise to $13 million per coin in the long term. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing adoption make it an inevitable cornerstone of the global financial system. Saylor believes that Bitcoin’s value will continue to increase as more institutions and individuals recognize its potential as a store of value and an inflation hedge. He also addressed the regulatory landscape, noting the challenges posed by governments and central banks. However, Saylor remains optimistic, arguing that the decentralized nature of Bitcoin makes it resilient against such challenges. 5. Critique of Traditional Financial Systems Saylor criticized the inefficiencies and risks of traditional banking systems and fiat currencies. He explained that central banks’ monetary policies, such as excessive money printing, erode the value of fiat currencies, making them unreliable for long-term wealth preservation. Bitcoin, on the other hand, offers a decentralized and deflationary alternative that protects against these risks. He also argued that Bitcoin’s adoption is inevitable as it offers a superior solution for wealth storage in a digital, globalized world. Saylor positioned Bitcoin as a foundational technology for financial innovation. 6. Strategic Vision and Long-Term Commitment In closing, Saylor reaffirmed MicroStrategy’s long-term commitment to Bitcoin. He emphasized the importance of maintaining a forward-looking vision, especially during periods of market volatility. For MicroStrategy, Bitcoin is not merely an investment but a strategic asset that aligns with the company’s core mission of creating and preserving shareholder value. Saylor ended by encouraging other companies and investors to consider adopting Bitcoin as part of their long-term strategies, arguing that early adoption offers the most significant rewards. He underscored the transformative potential of Bitcoin, not just for corporations, but for the global financial system as a whole. 7. LONG AND STRONG Critics of MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin strategy raise valid concerns, particularly regarding market volatility, regulatory risks, and the company’s reliance on debt to fund its investments. However, it’s important to understand the rationale behind Michael Saylor’s approach and the broader context of Bitcoin as a financial asset. Saylor’s strategy reflects an unwavering belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value as a hedge against inflation and a superior store of wealth compared to fiat currencies. His boldness in using innovative financial instruments, such as zero-interest convertible bonds, demonstrates his deep understanding of both financial markets and the transformative nature of Bitcoin. Saylor’s intelligence and foresight cannot be underestimated. He is betting on a paradigm shift in global finance, and institutions like pension funds, BlackRock, and other financial powerhouses are beginning to adopt similar strategies, reinforcing his vision. CRYPTOCAP:BTC is not a speculative, short-term investment; it is a long-term play. The minimum recommended investment period for Bitcoin should be 10 years, while the optimal strategy is to hold it indefinitely. Selling Bitcoin prematurely undermines its potential as an asset designed to preserve and grow wealth in an environment where politicians and central banks continue to print money, devaluing traditional currencies. Betting against Saylor and Bitcoin is betting against a future where decentralized, deflationary assets redefine the financial system. As Saylor often emphasizes, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing global adoption make it an asset poised to appreciate forever, rewarding those with the patience and foresight to hold for the long term. Thank you for reading Daveatt
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Daveatt
NAVIGATING THE MARKET PULLBACK🚨📉 #MarketPullback: Navigating the Market Pullback 📉🚨 The market pullback has many traders and investors on edge. Here's what you need to know to stay ahead: 💡 Understand the Trend: A pullback could be a short-term dip in an ongoing uptrend or a sign of a larger correction. Identifying which one it is can help you make informed decisions. 🔍 Opportunity or Caution?: A pullback presents an opportunity to buy at lower prices, but only if you believe the market will recover soon. Otherwise, holding off or cutting losses might be a safer play. ⚠️ Risk Management: If you're buying the dip, ensure you're managing your risk. Setting stop-loss orders can help minimize potential losses if the market continues to drop. 🌍 Market Sentiment: Pay attention to news and investor sentiment. If the pullback is caused by external factors, such as regulatory changes or macroeconomic conditions, it could last longer. 🤔 Are you ready to make your move or sitting this one out? Let me know your thoughts below! 🔥📊💬 Stay sharp. Stay informed. Trade smart. 💬📊🔥
Short
by AlphaBull-Trading
Ripple-XRPUSD Periodic Analysis (Issue 54)The analyst believes that the price of { XRPUSD } will increase in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA
Will XRP stay in the sideways trend channels?Hello everyone, I invite you to a quick review of the XRP to USDT chart on the 12H interval. As we can see, the XRP price is moving in a sideways trend channel in which the price bounce did not effectively overcome the resistance at $ 2.27, the next resistance is at $ 2.47, but then we have visible resistance at $ 2.61, another strong resistance is at $ 2.78, and only when we have a positive exit from the channel, the price can get a strong upward impulse around the resistance at $ 3.29. In a situation where the market will have a further reaction and the price will start to fall again, we have visible support at $ 2.22, then strong support at the lower limit of the channel at $ 1.94, however, if the price leaves the channel at the bottom, it may get a drop to around $ 1.72, and further, taking into account the height of the channel, there may be a price reversal to $ 1.39. The RSI indicator has room for continued growth, but a lot depends on the behavior of BTC itself.
by cryptodailyuk
$INJ: Bullish reversal detected on the $INJ daily timeframe.CRYPTOCAP:INJ is a highly underrated project with immense potential. As part of the Cosmos ecosystem, it boasts a state-of-the-art blockchain featuring advanced tools, high speed, and low gas fees. I’ve been tracking CRYPTOCAP:INJ closely as one of my favorite tech projects. While it’s not as popular as CRYPTOCAP:SUI , I have strong faith in its technology and long-term potential. Looking at the charts, CRYPTOCAP:INJ has underperformed compared to other altcoins due to a bearish correction on the daily timeframe. However, this correction seems to be nearing its end. With the weekly timeframe still showing bullish momentum, CRYPTOCAP:INJ appears primed for a double push-up. Based on this analysis, I anticipate a strong rally, potentially reaching $30 and even $40 within the next month or two. DYOR!
Long
by CryptoNikkoid
The Ultimate Day Trading Framework: Rules for Consistent SuccessThese are general trading rules that serve as a foundation for your strategy. You must work on them further to develop a precise plan tailored to your preferences, the markets you trade, your time zone, and other related variables. The goal is to create a clear, actionable framework that you can follow consistently every single trading day. 🔍📈📊 General Trading Rules Categorize Observations into Binary Decisions Simplify decisions into two options (e.g., Risk On vs. Risk Off). Decision determines the trade approach. ⚖️ Follow a Rule-Based System Rules are essential for processing setups quickly and accurately. 🛠️ Focus on keeping the process simple and systematic. Market Conditions Trend vs. Trading Range Trend: Look to swing more of your position. Uptrend: Prioritize buying. 📈 Downtrend: Prioritize selling. 📉 Trading Range: Buy low and sell high (scalping focus). 💱 Risk Management Evaluate Risk On vs. Risk Off for each setup. 🚦 Probability Assessment Categorize setups as High Probability vs. Low Probability. ✅❌ Execution Stay Agile Constantly assess market conditions and adapt strategies accordingly. 🔄 Focus on Key Setups On average, expect about 40 setups per day. Be selective and only act on setups that meet your criteria. 🎯 By personalizing these rules and following them diligently, you can bring clarity and consistency to your trading process.
CME_MINI:NQZ2024Education
by AlphaBull-Trading
How to Trade Christmas and New Year Winter Holidays As the winter holidays are already around the corner, you should know exactly when to stop trading and close your trades, and when to resume. In this article, you will learn how Christmas and New Year holidays affect the financial markets and I will share with you my trading schedule. First, let's discuss how winter holidays influence the markets. Winter holidays lead to a dramatic reduction in trading volumes. Many traders and investors take vacations in that period. Major financial institutions, banks, hedge funds often operate with reduced staffing and early closes or are completely close for holidays. All these factors inevitably lead to the diminished trading activity. Look at the schedule of official banking holidays in many countries. Since Tuesday 24th, the banks are officially closed in Europe, UK, USA and so on. But why should you care? If you have free time, why can't you continue trading? Even if you trade technical analysis, you should admit the fact the fundamentals are the main driver for significant price movements. One of the major sources of high impact fundamentals is the economic news releases in the economic calendar. Look at the economic calendar. You can see that the last day of high impact news releases will be Friday, December 20th. After that, the calendar is completely empty. The absence of impactful fundamentals will inevitably make the markets stagnate, making trading very boring. Above is the EURUSD price chart with ATR technical indicator (the one that measure the market volatility). We see a clear drop in volatility during a winter holiday season. You can behold a similar pattern on Gold chart. With the big politicians taking vacations during the holidays season, we tend to see the local easing of geological tensions accompanied by a lack of significant foreign and domestic policy actions and announcements. That's the US congressional calendar. There are no sessions since December 23rd. But there is one more reason why you should not trade during winter holidays. The absence of big players on the market will decrease the overall trading volumes - the liquidity. Lower liquidity will unavoidably increase the bid/ask spreads. The widened spreads will make trading more costly, especially if you are scalping or day trading. And when should you resume trading? It always depends on how actively the markets wake up after holidays. The minimal starting day will be January 6th. I usually do not trade this week and just watch how the markets starts moving. I prefer to begin my trading year from Monday next week, the January 13th. Holidays seasons will be the best period for you to do the back testing and learning. Pick a trading strategy that you want to trade with in a new year and sacrifice your time to back test it on different instruments. Learn important theory and various techniques, relax and prepare your self for a new trading season. Have a great time, traders! ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Weekend Crypto Pulse: $BTC at $95,415 & $ETH Leading DeFi – Top Good morning, champions! ☀️ While traditional markets take a breather, crypto keeps the grind alive. 🕒 CRYPTOCAP:BTC holds strong at $95,415, still defying gravity, and CRYPTOCAP:ETH sits at $3,527, the DeFi heartbeat going strong. Weekend movers: 📈 CRYPTOCAP:AVAX up 4.5%, turning heads in the Layer-1 race. 📈 CRYPTOCAP:SOL climbing 3.2%, showing resilience in its recovery arc. Take a moment today: plan, prep, sip that coffee. 🛠️ Balance your charts with a bit of mindfulness—crypto’s a marathon, not a sprint. What’s your strategy for today’s market movers? Any hidden gems on your radar? Let’s share some insights. 💡
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DCAChampion
What's next for BTC? Will the correction go lower?Hello everyone, I invite you to review the situation of BTC, which has currently had a -15% price correction. This is a natural correction in the growth cycle, and what's more, much larger corrections at 20% or 30% levels often appeared in bull cycles. Let's start with how the price moved in the local growth trend channel, in which we can see how dynamically we went down to the lower zone of the channel, which translated into a further drop in price reaching the support level at $ 91,712. In such a situation, it should be taken into account that very often leaving the channel gives a movement close to the channel height, which could cause the BTC price to drop to the support level at $ 84,072. If the current rebound from the level of around $92,000 ends the current correction, however, here we see how the level of $95,004 poses effective resistance for the price, only when it is broken again will it go further to the area of ​​$101,000, and then again move towards the strong resistance zone from $106,000 to $108,000. On the RSI, taking into account the 12H interval, we have a visible descent with crossing the lower limit, which in previous situations gave rise to renewed price increases.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by cryptodailyuk
Bitcoin & Macro Analysis fo 2025From previous analysis, BTC on target and Hit Fibonacci Extension 1.272 at $108.000 And rejected from this area For now, BTC need pullback before continuing rally You can see pullback area at : - Fibonacci Retracement 0.236 - Fibonacci Retracement 0.386 - Fibonacci Retracement 0.5 Be cautious with your decisions, especially for 2025 , as the Dec 2024 Summary of Economic Projections release has impacted the market. Macro economic conditions are solid, but the Fed's decision left the market disappointed. After release Summary of Economic Projections Dec 18 FOMC, market was disappointed since The Fed's forecast cut rates only 2x or maybe just 1x (3.9) instead of 4x as SEP projected in September (3.4).
INDEX:BTCUSD
by kelvin_gautama9