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GOLD:Will the U.S. Dollar Cap Gold Gains?Analyzing Market TrendsGold prices have seen a surge in buying activity as the week begins, aiming to build upon the recovery initiated from a one-month low reached last Thursday. Analyzing the market from a technical perspective, we've observed the price hitting our pending order level. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain bullish while commercial traders have shifted to a bearish stance over the past week. This dynamic suggests that we are anticipating a bearish continuation in gold prices despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, fears surrounding trade wars continue to create a backdrop that benefits the safe-haven appeal of gold. However, the strength of the U.S. Dollar (USD) presents a contrasting scenario that could further suppress gold prices. Recently, there has been a resurgence in dip-buying within the USD, fueled by the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and rising U.S. Treasury yields. These factors are likely to impose additional constraints on gold, a non-yielding asset, limiting its upside potential. In summary, while the geopolitical landscape might support gold's appeal, the prevailing strength of the dollar could undermine any significant price increases in the near term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
Bitcoin Mega Crash? Analyzing the Potential 30% Decline and KeyThe chart provides a technical analysis of Bitcoin's price movement, indicating a potential scenario for further decline. Bitcoin has already dropped by approximately 15%, and the analysis suggests an additional 16% decrease, resulting in a total 30% correction. Key levels in the chart include: Support and Resistance: The green zones represent strong support areas, where buying interest may emerge. Bitcoin is currently testing a critical support level near $92,000. If the price breaks below this level, it could lead to a deeper correction, with the next support zone around $76,000. Trendlines and Moving Averages: An orange trendline shows a previous upward trend that has been broken, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. A green moving average line may indicate long-term support, having been tested multiple times. Projected Scenarios: The chart outlines two potential scenarios. One suggests continued bearish momentum, with Bitcoin dropping to the next support level. The other scenario anticipates a rebound from the current support level, followed by consolidation and a possible recovery. Market Sentiment: The analysis highlights bearish sentiment, which could be driven by macroeconomic factors, lack of buying pressure, or reduced market confidence. Traders should closely monitor the $92,000 level. A break below this could confirm the bearish outlook, while a strong bounce may signal a potential reversal. Bitcoin's price action in the coming days will determine whether the predicted 30% drop occurs or if the market stabilizes.
Short
by bullanceprime
EUR/USD Market Dynamics: Analyzing Recent Price MovementsFollowing our previous analysis, we anticipated the market's response to last week's robust U.S. economic indicators, particularly regarding the USD's strength against the EUR. After experiencing a notable bearish trend, the euro managed to recoup some losses, specifically retesting our pending order at 1.04380. As I write this article on December 23, 2024, the currency pair trades around 1.04130, providing a rejection of our entry point. On Monday, the U.S. Dollar (USD) stabilized after a significant drop on Friday. This sell-off was prompted by weaker-than-expected growth in the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE). Specifically, the core PCE—a key inflation metric favored by the Federal Reserve—rose by 2.8%, falling short of the projected 2.9%. On a month-to-month basis, both headline and core PCE inflation inched up by only 0.1%, leading to speculation about the Federal Reserve's trajectory concerning interest rate adjustments in 2025. Federal Reserve officials are beginning to signal expectations of fewer rate cuts in the coming year, as the disinflation process appears to be slowing and uncertainties loom over how President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming immigration, trade, and taxation policies could affect the economy. Given the current outlook, we are anticipating a continuation of bearish trends in the market. Previous Idea: ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 23, 2024 USDJPYDoubts about the Bank of Japan's rate hike plan and widening yield differential between the US and Japan put pressure on the yen. Traders are expecting a short-term boost from the US consumer confidence index, which will be released on Monday. The Japanese yen (JPY) starts the new week on a softer note and remains a short distance from the five-month low reached on Friday against its U.S. counterpart. Doubts over when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again have proven to be a key factor weighing on the JPY. In addition, the recent widening of the yield differential between the US and Japan, backed by the Federal Reserve's (BoJ) tightening stance, is undermining the low-yielding JPY. Added to this, the overall positive tone in equity markets is reducing demand for the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, strong inflation data released in Japan on Friday left room for a potential BoJ rate hike in January or March. This, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, did not help the USD/JPY pair to realize upside potential in the Asian session in the absence of any fundamental catalyst. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 156.00, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
TEMPORARY SELLS ON NASDAQGood day traders, today we have beautiful market structure on Nasdaq as you can see on the 15m timeframe the market gave us a bearish market structure shift after reaching the FVG on the right, we are in the london killzone i am looking for this market to trade down to the level @21098.7 so that I can execute my buys(long term positions) so do not worry if you missed the perfect entry on this one, there will be more during the day.currently we are selling to buy ENTRY:21538.1 SL:21616.8 TP:21098.7
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by Mokgethoa_MK
Could AI Unlock the Secrets of Life's Building Blocks?In a remarkable leap forward for biotechnology, scientists have unveiled MassiveFold, a revolutionary adaptation of Google DeepMind's AlphaFold that transforms our ability to understand protein structures. This groundbreaking system achieves what was once thought impossible: reducing protein structure prediction time from months to mere hours. By combining parallel processing with sophisticated optimization techniques, Université de Lille and Linköping University researchers have created a tool that democratizes access to one of science's most powerful capabilities. The implications of this advancement ripple across multiple industries, from pharmaceutical development to sustainable agriculture. MassiveFold's ability to rapidly decode protein structures – the fundamental building blocks of life – accelerates our potential to develop new medicines, enhance crop yields, and create more efficient biofuels. What makes this development particularly significant is its accessibility; the system operates efficiently on both modest computing setups and advanced GPU infrastructures, making it available to research teams worldwide. Perhaps most intriguing is MassiveFold's performance in real-world applications. During the prestigious CASP15-CAPRI blind structure prediction trials, the system demonstrated remarkable accuracy, sometimes surpassing the capabilities of its predecessor, AlphaFold3. This success, combined with its open-source availability, suggests we're entering a new era of biological understanding where the mysteries of protein structures – and thus the fundamental mechanics of life – become increasingly accessible to scientific exploration. As this technology continues to evolve, it promises to unlock new possibilities in everything from disease treatment to environmental conservation, potentially revolutionizing our approach to humanity's most pressing challenges.
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by UDIS_View
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor (AOSL) AnalysisCompany Overview: Alpha and Omega Semiconductor NASDAQ:AOSL is a leading innovator in power semiconductors, offering a diversified product portfolio that includes Power MOSFETs, Silicon Carbide (SiC) devices, IGBTs, and power management ICs. The company’s focus on high-performance, energy-efficient solutions positions it at the forefront of several transformative industries. Key Catalysts for Growth Sectoral Demand Tailwinds: AOSL is benefiting from rising demand in key sectors such as automotive, consumer electronics, and industrial applications. These markets are poised for long-term growth, driven by trends like electrification and automation. Expansion into High-Growth Areas: Electric Vehicles (EVs): AOSL’s expansion into the EV ecosystem, including advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), enhances its exposure to the rapidly growing EV market. Sustainability Focus: Products aligned with energy-efficient power management address global sustainability priorities, solidifying AOSL's competitive positioning. Innovative Portfolio Diversification: AOSL’s broad product portfolio minimizes risks tied to any single category and ensures resilience amid market fluctuations. The company’s investments in Silicon Carbide (SiC) technology bolster its competitive edge in applications requiring high power efficiency. Profitability and Margins: AOSL’s focus on energy-efficient designs supports higher margins while aligning with industry trends for lower power consumption and cost efficiency. Investment Outlook Bullish Case: We remain bullish on AOSL above the $36.00-$37.00 range, as the company capitalizes on its technological leadership and industry tailwinds. Upside Potential: Our upside target for AOSL is $69.00-$71.00, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory, driven by its strategic focus on EVs, ADAS, and energy-efficient innovations. 🚀 AOSL—Powering the Future of Electronics with Sustainable Energy Solutions. #Semiconductors #EnergyEfficiency #TechLeadership
NASDAQ:AOSLLong
by Richtv_official
A10 Networks (ATEN) AnalysisCompany Overview: A10 Networks NYSE:ATEN is a leading provider of high-performance application delivery and cybersecurity solutions, uniquely positioned to benefit from the growing demand for advanced security services and network optimization in a digital-first economy. Key Catalysts: Security-Driven Growth: Security-focused revenue is up 10% year-to-date, underscoring robust demand for advanced cybersecurity solutions in response to escalating cyber threats globally. With cyber risks rising, this segment is poised to be a significant growth driver for ATEN. Enterprise Segment Momentum: The enterprise segment has shown consistent performance, growing 5% year-to-date and 9% year-over-year, signaling healthy demand across key verticals. Debt-Free Balance Sheet: A10 Networks’ debt-free financial position provides a strategic advantage in the current high-interest-rate environment, enabling sustainable investment in growth initiatives and enhanced shareholder returns. Resilient Business Model: Focused on providing mission-critical solutions, ATEN benefits from strong customer retention and recurring revenue streams, ensuring long-term stability. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on ATEN above the $16.50-$17.00 range, supported by its growth in cybersecurity, enterprise traction, and robust financial health. Upside Potential: Our upside target for ATEN is $28.00-$29.00, driven by expanding security revenues, enterprise adoption, and financial flexibility in pursuing strategic opportunities. 🚀 ATEN—Empowering Enterprises with Next-Gen Security and Performance. #Cybersecurity #EnterpriseSolutions #TechGrowth
NYSE:ATENLong
by Richtv_official
Fantom (FTM) Poised for a Critical Move: Are You Ready for This?Yello, traders! Have you been tracking Fantom's recent price action? It’s make-or-break time for FTM as it clings to crucial support zones this setup could define its trajectory for weeks to come. Let’s dive into the details. 💎#Fantom (FTM) has been respecting a critical ascending trendline for months, and the current price action suggests that the $0.741–$0.7906 range is a vital support zone. This level has repeatedly acted as a launchpad for bullish momentum, and any failure to hold here could lead to a deeper retracement, potentially toward the $0.5237–$0.5574 region. On the other hand, if bulls step in and defend this level convincingly, we could see #FTM push back toward its next major resistance at $1.10–$1.20. 💎Breaking above this resistance would be a significant bullish signal, opening the door to a rally toward $1.50 and possibly as high as $2.00 in the coming weeks. However, hesitation in the market is evident, as trading volumes remain muted, suggesting that both bulls and bears are waiting for confirmation of the next major move. 💎The RSI currently sits near neutral levels, not yet signaling oversold conditions, but a dip below 40 would confirm bearish momentum. For now, the trendline remains intact, and the long-term structure leans bullish as long as the $0.7906 support holds. However, if sellers manage to break below this key area, the structure would shift, bringing much lower levels into play. 💎#Fantom is at a crossroads, and patience is key. The market is testing traders’ discipline right now, and emotional decisions could be costly. The best strategy is to wait for confirmation either a bounce above support or a decisive breakdown below it before taking a position. Stay focused, trade smart, and always prioritize risk management over greed. Only those who play the game strategically will stand at the top when the dust settles. Stay sharp, Paradisers! MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
Bitcoin - Bitcoin went below $100,000!Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 in the four-hour time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Bitcoin sell positions can be looked for in supply zones. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. Following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted from its peak of $108,135 on December 17 to below $95,000. Powell’s comments, which signaled the Fed’s ongoing battle against inflation, triggered a sharp selloff in the cryptocurrency market. He indicated that only two interest rate cuts might occur in 2025, as opposed to the four cuts previously anticipated. Additionally, the Federal Reserve revised its 2025 inflation forecast from 2.1% to 2.5%. Even the 2026 forecast stands at 2.1%, exceeding the central bank’s 2% target. This suggests that inflation could persist for another two years, compelling the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for longer than initially projected. Bitcoin ETFs, after experiencing 15 consecutive days of capital inflows, saw an unprecedented $680 million outflow on Thursday. This trend continued into Friday, with an additional $270 million withdrawn. Cryptocurrency investors, reacting to the Fed’s decision to slow monetary easing next year, moved substantial capital out of the market. In the United States, Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed gold ETFs in assets under management (AUM). Despite gold ETFs’ 20-year history, Bitcoin ETFs now manage $129.3 billion, compared to $128.9 billion for gold ETFs. MicroStrategy, a company renowned for its massive Bitcoin holdings, successfully entered the Nasdaq index. With 439,000 Bitcoins valued at $42.64 billion, the company controls approximately 2% of the total Bitcoin supply. This milestone highlights MicroStrategy’s strong position in the Bitcoin market and has boosted its stock price (MSTR) to $364.20. The company’s innovative strategy of leveraging Bitcoin as a growth asset showcases a unique approach in the financial world. Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily decreased in recent years. By October 2024, its monthly volatility had dropped to 11%, lower than that of high-profile tech stocks like Tesla (24%), AMD (16%), and Nvidia (12%). Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, recently shared his outlook on the cryptocurrency market. He predicted a “horrific collapse” around the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on January 20, 2025. Hayes wrote, “The market believes Trump and his team can deliver immediate economic and political miracles,” but pointed to a gap between investor expectations and the “absence of quick, viable policy solutions.” Hayes forecasted that implementing changes to cryptocurrency policies would likely take far longer than the market anticipates. He added, “The market will soon realize that Trump, at best, has only a year to execute any policy changes in or around January 20. This realization will trigger a massive selloff in cryptocurrencies and other Trump-related trades.” He also predicted that a “steep decline” would occur around Trump’s inauguration day, followed by a “crack-up boom phase” in late 2025. This phase, typically seen after financial crises, is characterized by rapid price increases, high inflation, and financial instability.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
TradeCityPro | AAVE : Insights into the DeFi Lending Giant👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro! In this analysis, I’ll delve into the AAVE token. The current market conditions are challenging, and finding good positions is difficult. Therefore, I’ll focus more on explaining the project and less on chart analysis. 🔍 About AAVE: AAVE is a blockchain-based platform that allows users to deposit their assets as collateral and borrow against them. Since the platform operates on the blockchain, both collateral and loans are in the form of cryptocurrencies. A key parameter in this platform is the Health Factor, which is calculated based on the collateral amount and the borrowed amount. If this parameter falls below 1, the likelihood of liquidation increases significantly. 🔄 This platform enables users to borrow funds in a decentralized environment. Borrowed funds can be used directly or leveraged within the DeFi space for higher profits. However, this comes with specific risks, as highlighted earlier. 💸 AAVE generates revenue through interest rates charged to users. For instance, if a user supplies Ethereum to the platform, they earn a 5% return, while a borrower pays 7% interest. AAVE earns the 2% spread as its profit for mediating between the supplier and the borrower. 💰 Currently, the platform's Total Value Locked (TVL) stands at $19 billion, ranking second after Lido. This builds substantial trust among users. Due to its revenue model, AAVE is one of the few profitable crypto projects, enabling stakeholders to earn not only from token appreciation but also from platform-generated income. 🤝 Given AAVE's revenue model and the scarcity of profitable crypto projects, it has the potential to grow into one of the largest platforms in the crypto space. Already ranked second in TVL, it can further attract more users and expand its presence. 🔵 If AAVE continues to grow, its token could become one of the most critical assets in the market. With a market cap of $5 billion, AAVE currently ranks 30th by market cap. If its revenue remains stable and the project stays profitable, the token’s rank is likely to improve further. 📅 Weekly Timeframe: Strong Bullish Momentum and Parabolic Movement In the weekly timeframe, there is a visible accumulation box with its ceiling at $130.24. After breaking this level, strong bullish momentum entered the market. Following a pullback and breaking the $202.63 resistance, the next significant resistance lies at $476.74. 📈 From the initial rise off the $51.76 low, the buying volume has surged significantly, validating the upward trend. The RSI entered the overbought zone after the break of $202.63, further propelling the price upward. 🚀 The $476.74 resistance is critical, coinciding with the ATH level. Breaking this level could lead to a new ATH. Currently, Fibonacci levels for subsequent targets cannot be determined until the price correction zones are identified. After completing the correction, further targets can be analyzed. 🔽 In a corrective scenario: The first key zone is $202.63, especially if it aligns with the curved trendline, strengthening its significance.A deeper correction could reach $130.24, and breaching this level would end the bullish trend, signaling the start of a new market cycle. ✨ Breaking the $77.45 level would introduce bearish momentum, while a break of the $51.76 support could instill significant fear in the market, potentially leading to sharp price drops. 📅 Daily Timeframe: Signs of a Possible Correction In the daily timeframe, the latest bullish leg can be examined in more detail. Currently, the price has hit the $381.71 resistance and is undergoing a correction after one test. 🔑 So far, the correction has not been deep, with the price shadowing to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and temporarily recovering. If the correction continues: The 0.5 Fibonacci level is crucial and observable in lower timeframes. 📉 If both levels are broken, the next major support is $195.25, overlapping with the 0.786 Fibonacci level. This level is the last critical zone to maintain bullish momentum. Breaching it could bring bearish momentum into the market. 🔼 If the correction concludes and the $381.71 resistance is broken, the next resistance lies at $637.94. Breaking the 70 RSI resistance would reintroduce buying momentum. It is notable that the market volume hasn’t declined yet, which supports the bullish trend. ⏳ 4-Hour Timeframe: Futures Triggers In this timeframe, I will focus solely on futures triggers since the higher timeframe scenarios are already analyzed. 🔽 After reaching the $381.71 resistance, the price entered a corrective phase, touching the 0.382 Fibonacci level before forming support at $295.77. Breaking this support would activate the first short trigger, though it is highly risky due to the overall bullish trend. Personally, I won’t take this position as the market trend is still upward. 💥 Another short trigger could emerge based on Dow Theory, but the market hasn’t yet established the necessary structure. ⚡️ For a long position, the primary trigger is the $381.71 resistance, which is a crucial level. I aim to open a long position if this resistance is broken to profit from the next upward wave. Since opening a position upon breaking this level is challenging, an early long trigger could be identified at $337.93. A break of $53.80, coinciding with the $337.93 resistance, could also provide a good opportunity for a long position. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️ above.
Long
by tradecitypro
23
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/51]: Bearish Trend StrengthensSGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) fell last week, closing USD 3.82/ton lower by 20/Dec (Fri). SGX IO Futures opened at USD 104.45/ton on 16/Dec (Mon) and closed at USD 100.63/ton on 20/Dec (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 105.80/ton on 17/Dec (Tue) and a low of USD 99.80/ton on 20/Dec (Fri). It traded in a range of USD 6/ton during the week, which was wider than the prior week. Prices tested the pivot point of USD 104.60/ton at the start of the week and closed below the S1 point of USD 101.85/ton. Volume peaked on 19/Dec (Thu), as iron ore prices declined by 0.9%, as the PBoC kept its loan prime rates unchanged. Iron Ore Fundamentals in Summary Iron ore prices declined for the week ending 20/Dec, following the PBoC's decision to keep loan prime rates unchanged on 19/Dec. Earlier optimism over China’s 2025 monetary policy easing plans faded after the rate pause dampened market sentiment. Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources said in a quarterly outlook that iron ore prices will average USD 80/ton in 2025 and then drop to USD 76/ton in 2026. With the US dollar touching a two-year high, Iron Ore prices are turning bearish with markets awaiting China’s next move to support its economy. China's port iron ore stockpiles inched up 0.01% to 145.85 million tons in the week ending 20/Dec, according to MMI data . Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Jan contract traded 18.8% below its last 5-year average (USD 123.99/ton). Short-Term Moving Averages Indicate Reversal in Bullish Trend The 9-day moving average crossed the 21-day moving average from above, culminating in a death cross on 20/Dec (Fri). This signals the potential onset of a bearish trend. Long-Term Averages Signal Potential Beginning of a Bearish Trend IO prices tested the 200-d SMA at the start of the week but sharply fell, closing below the 100-d SMA by the end of the week. This indicates the beginning of a bearish trend as prices fell below both the long-term moving averages. MACD Points to Growing Bearishness, RSI Inches Towards Oversold Territory The MACD indicates a growing bearish sentiment starting from 18/Dec. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 40.60 and is inching towards oversold territory treading below the midpoint, while the RSI-based moving average is at 51.90. Volatility Inched Down, Price Closed Below 23.6% Fibonacci Level Volatility declined moderately last week. Prices tested the 50% Fibonacci level at USD 105.4/ton at the start of the week but quickly declined in the week to close below the 23.6% Fibonacci level at USD 100.35/ton. Going forward, the 23.6% Fibonacci level will act as resistance while the 38.2% level at USD 103.15/ton will act as the support. Selling Pressure Intensified, Price Trading at Low Volume Nodes Selling pressure continues to dominate and has grown stronger since the start of December, according to the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator. The price is trading at a relatively low-volume node. Price also closed the week below the lower Bollinger Band. Iron Ore Prices Likely to Fall in December Despite Seasonality Iron ore prices generally increase in December due to seasonal patterns that prompt restocking in anticipation of China's Lunar New Year, driven by higher demand for steel production. However, it looks like in December 2024, prices will likely decline. IO Futures Only Aggregate Exposure Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed money are net long with 124.7k and 26.6k lots across all futures expiries. Physical market participants and Others are net short with 110.1k and 41.2k lots across all futures expiries. Overall futures open interest as of 13th Dec 2024 stood at 1,259,936 lots. Source: SGX IO Futures & Options Aggregate Exposure Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed money are net long with 121.5k and 37.1k lots across all futures & options expiries. Physical market participants and Others are net short with 117.6k and 41k lots across all futures & options expiries. Overall futures & options open interest as of 13th Dec 2024 stood at 1,565,080 lots. Source: SGX Historical Futures Aggregate Exposure by Market Participants Physical participants have switched from net long to net short over the last quarter. Managed Money has shifted from net short to net long. Financial Institutions continue to hold net long positions since the second quarter of this year. Source: SGX Hypothetical Trade Setup Despite expectations of seasonally strong demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, market sentiment for SGX Iron Ore remains bearish. China's sluggish economic recovery suggests a rebound may hinge on monetary policy easing in 2025. Additionally, technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook, with prices falling below both short- and long-term moving averages. A short position on SGX Iron Ore could be a strategic way to express this view. We propose a hypothetical trade setup involving selling the SGX Iron Ore January Futures Contract at USD 102/ton, with a stop loss at USD 105/ton and a target price of USD 97/ton, yielding a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.67x. Each contract provides exposure to 100 tons of iron ore, resulting in a potential gain of USD 500/lot ((102 - 97) x 100) against a risk of USD 300/lot. This calculation excludes transaction costs, such as clearing broker and exchange fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,188/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,080/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEFX2024Short
by MintBulkCommods
XAU/USD (Gold) Trendline BreakoutThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent breakout from a well-defined Trendline pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2663 2nd Support – 2689 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
6
Santa Claus Rally: How Will Christmas Impact Stock MarketsSanta Claus Rally: How Will Christmas Impact Stock Markets in 2024 The Santa Claus rally is a well-known seasonal phenomenon where stock markets often see gains during the final trading days of December and the start of January. But what causes this year-end trend, and how does Christmas influence stock markets overall? In this article, we’ll explore the factors behind the rally, its historical significance, and what traders can learn from this unique period in the financial calendar. What Is the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally, or simply the Santa rally, refers to a seasonal trend where stock markets often rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. For instance, Santa Claus rally dates for 2024 start on the 24th December and end on the 2nd January, with stock markets closed on the 25th (Christmas day) and the 28th and 29th (a weekend). First identified by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, this phenomenon has intrigued traders for decades. While not a guaranteed outcome, it has shown a consistent pattern in market data over the years, making it a point of interest for those analysing year-end trends. In Santa rally history, average returns are modest but noteworthy. For example, per 2019’s Stock Trader’s Almanac, the S&P 500 has historically gained around 1.3% during this period, outperforming most other weeks of the year. Across the seven days, prices have historically climbed 76% of the time. This trend isn’t limited to the US; global indices often experience similar movements, further highlighting its significance. To check market dynamics, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader trading platform. The Christmas rally in the stock market is believed to stem from several factors. Low trading volumes during the holiday season, as many institutional investors take time off, may reduce resistance to upward price movements. Retail investors, buoyed by end-of-year optimism or holiday bonuses, may drive additional buying. Additionally, some investors reposition portfolios for tax purposes or adjust holdings ahead of the new year, contributing to the upward momentum. However, this pattern is not immune to disruption. Broader economic events, geopolitical tensions, or bearish sentiment can easily override it. While the Santa Claus rally is a fascinating seasonal trend, it’s essential to view it as one piece of the larger market puzzle rather than a reliable signal on its own. Why Might the Santa Claus Rally Happen? The Santa Claus rally isn’t a random occurrence. Several factors, both psychological and practical, can drive this year-end market trend. While it doesn’t happen every year, when it does, there are usually clear reasons behind it. Investor Optimism and Holiday Sentiment The holiday season often brings a wave of positive sentiment. This optimism can influence traders to take a bullish stance, especially as many are eager to start the new year on a strong note. Retail investors, in particular, may view this period as an opportunity to position themselves for potential January gains. The festive atmosphere and the prospect of year-end “window dressing”—where fund managers buy well-performing stocks to improve portfolio appearances—can also contribute. Tax-Driven Portfolio Adjustments As the year closes, many investors engage in tax-loss harvesting, selling underperforming assets to offset taxable gains. Once these adjustments are complete, reinvestments into higher-performing or promising stocks may push markets higher. This activity can create short-term demand, fuelling upward momentum during the rally period. Lower Trading Volumes Institutional investors often step back during the holidays, leaving markets dominated by retail traders and smaller participants. Lower trading volumes can result in less resistance to price movements, making it easier for upward trends to emerge. With fewer large players balancing the market, price shifts may become more pronounced. Bonus Reinvestments and End-of-Year Contributions Many professionals receive year-end bonuses or make final contributions to retirement accounts during this period. Some of this money flows into the markets, adding buying pressure. This effect is particularly noticeable in December, as investors seek to capitalise on potential market opportunities before the year wraps up. How Christmas Impacts Stock Markets The Christmas period is unique in the trading calendar, shaping market behaviour in ways that stand out from other times of the year. While some effects align with holiday-driven sentiment, others reflect broader seasonal trends. Reduced Liquidity and Trading Volumes One of the most notable impacts of Christmas is the sharp decline in trading activity. This contributes to the Santa rally, with the largest market participants—institutional investors and professional traders—stepping away for the holidays. This thinner activity can lead to sharper price movements as smaller trades carry more influence. For example, stocks with lower market capitalisation may experience greater volatility during this time. Sector-Specific Strength The most popular Christmas stocks tend to be those in the consumer discretionary and retail sectors (though this isn’t guaranteed). The holiday shopping boom drives significant revenues for companies in these sectors, often lifting their stock prices. A strong showing in retail sales, especially in countries like the US, can bolster market indices tied to consumer spending. Many consider companies like Amazon and brick-and-mortar retailers to be among the most popular stocks to buy before Christmas, given they often see increased trading interest around the holidays and a potential Christmas rally. Economic Data Releases The Christmas season still sees the publication of economic indicators. While there are no specific year-end releases from government statistical bodies, some 3rd-party reports may have an impact. Likewise, scheduled publications, such as US jobless claims (every Thursday) or non-farm payrolls (the first Friday of each month), can affect sentiment. Positive data can provide an additional boost to stock markets in December. However, weaker-than-expected results can dampen enthusiasm, counteracting any seasonal cheer. International Variations While Western markets slow down for Christmas, other global markets may not follow the same pattern. For instance, Asian markets, where Christmas is less of a holiday, may see regular or even increased activity. This discrepancy can create interesting dynamics for traders who keep an eye on global portfolios. The "Post-Holiday Rebound" As Christmas wraps up, markets often experience a slight rebound leading into the New Year, driven by renewed investor activity. This period, while brief, is closely watched as it can set the tone for the opening days of January trading. Potential Risks and Considerations While the Santa Claus rally and year-end trends can be intriguing, they are far from guaranteed. Relying solely on these patterns without deeper analysis can lead to overlooked risks and missed opportunities. Uncertain Market Conditions Macro factors, like interest rate changes, geopolitical tensions, or unexpected economic data, can disrupt seasonal trends. For instance, during times of economic uncertainty, the optimism often associated with the holidays might not translate to market gains. Traders must account for these broader dynamics rather than assuming the rally will occur. Overemphasis on Historical Patterns Historical data can provide valuable insights, but markets evolve. A pattern that held up in past decades may not carry the same weight today due to shifts in investor behaviour, technological advancements, and globalisation. Traders focusing too heavily on past trends may miss the impact of more relevant, current developments. Low Liquidity Risks The reduced trading volumes typical of the holiday season can work both ways. While thin markets may allow for upward price movements, they can also lead to heightened volatility. A single large trade or unexpected event can swing prices sharply, posing challenges for those navigating the market during this time. Sector-Specific Sensitivity Sectors like retail and consumer discretionary often draw attention during December due to strong sales data. However, poor performance or weak holiday shopping figures can cause a ripple effect, dragging down not only individual stocks but broader indices tied to these sectors. FOMO and Overtrading The hype surrounding the Santa Claus rally can lead to overtrading or ill-timed decisions, particularly for less experienced traders. Maintaining a disciplined approach, potentially combined with clear risk management strategies, can potentially help mitigate this issue. The Bottom Line The Santa Claus rally is a fascinating seasonal trend, offering insights into how market sentiment and activity shift during the holidays. While not guaranteed, understanding these patterns can help traders develop their strategies. Whether you’re exploring seasonal trends in stock CFDs or other potential opportunities across forex and commodity CFDs, having the right platform is essential. Open an FXOpen account today to access more than 700 markets, four trading platforms, and low-cost trading conditions. FAQ What Is the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally refers to a seasonal trend where stock markets often rise during the final week of December and the first two trading days of January. It’s a well-documented phenomenon, first identified by Yale Hirsch in the Stock Trader’s Almanac. While it doesn’t occur every year, Santa Claus rally history demonstrates consistent patterns, with the S&P 500 averaging a 1.3% gain during this period. What Are the Dates for the Santa Claus Rally? The Santa Claus rally typically covers the final five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. The Santa Claus rally in 2024 starts on the 24th of December and ends on the 2nd of January. During this period, stock markets will be closed on the 25th (Christmas Day) and the weekend of the 28th and 29th. How Many Days Does the Santa Claus Stock Rally Take? The rally spans seven trading days: the last five of December and the first two of January. While its duration is fixed, the intensity and consistency of the trend vary from year to year. Is December Good for Stocks? Historically, December has been one of the strongest months for stock markets. Positive sentiment, strong retail performance, and tax-related portfolio adjustments often contribute to this trend. Is the Stock Market Open on Christmas? No, US and UK stock markets are closed on Christmas Day, with reduced hours on Christmas Eve. Historically, What Is the Best Day of December to Invest in the Stock Market? Financial markets bear high risks, therefore, there is no best day for trading or investing. According to theory, in December stock market history, the last trading day of the year has often been among the strongest, as investors position portfolios for the new year. However, results vary based on broader market conditions and a trader’s skills. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXMEducation
by FXOpen
6
Long MLP ETF & Short Micro Nat Gas Futures on Shifting SeasonaliHenry Hub Natural Gas (US LNG) prices have surged 46.2% since November 2024, driven by colder weather forecasts, rising European gas prices, increased feed gas to U.S. LNG facilities, and expectations of stronger domestic and European demand. US LNG prices typically climb in winter as U.S. heating needs spike, with the December-March period marking a net drawdown in storage. However, the recent rally has been volatile. Shifting weather forecasts triggered fluctuations, including a sharp 7.6% one-day drop on 27/Nov. Source: CME CVOL Turbulent fundamentals, choppy weather, and uncertain geopolitics have forced implied volatilities on US LNG to spike to levels of 99.47 on 20/Dec, unseen over the last 12 months. Supply concerns in Europe have further supported the uptrend. In reducing reliance on Russia, EU’s demand for US LNG has intensified, which accounted for 48% of the imports in H1 2024. US LNG exports increased to 14 bcfd in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November, reflecting strong activity. For 2024, US LNG shipments are projected to reach 86.9 million metric tons, about 720,000 tons (0.8%) higher than in 2023, reports Reuters . Trump’s re-election has fired up optimism of accelerated LNG project approvals, increased drilling, & relaxed pipeline regulations, potentially boosting US LNG exports. DATA CENTRES TO DRIVE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION GROWTH The growing adoption of AI-driven technologies and the expansion of data centres are significantly increasing electricity demand, placing utilities at the forefront of powering the tech industry's rapid evolution. Source: IBISWorld Deloitte projects U.S. data centre electricity demand to rise sharply reaching 515–720 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030 (up from 180–290 TWh in 2024; CAGR of 17%). Tech giants are turning to renewables and nuclear energy to meet rising energy needs. However, challenges with wind and solar intermittency, alongside the delayed rollout of modular nuclear reactors, make natural gas indispensable. Source: EIA STEO US LNG remains dominant, generating 43% of U.S. electricity. It is solidifying its role as the backbone of tech energy needs. MIDSTREAM GAS COMPANIES PRIMED TO BENEFIT FROM TRUMP’S SECOND TERM Trump’s support for US oil & gas is expected to push production up. LNG exports surged under his administration, rising from 186.8 Bcf in 2016 to 2,390 Bcf in 2020. Source: EIA While increased supply could exert downward pressure on US LNG prices, particularly as winter demand wanes, lower gas prices benefit utilities by improving cost efficiency. Additionally, rising electricity demand supports pipeline, LNG infrastructure, & midstream gas companies, which are less exposed to price fluctuations than drillers. Performance of midstream energy stocks is a function of production volumes & pipeline capacity rather than energy prices. Record U.S. oil production has kept pipeline utilization rates high, supporting midstream revenues. However, infrastructure deficits in key regions have created transportation bottlenecks, leading to backlogs. The completion of new pipelines, storage units, processing facilities, and export terminals will ease these supply constraints. A Trump presidency could expedite the approval of LNG transport infrastructure. LNG exports remain a key growth driver as new terminals and processing plants come online. Even if US LNG prices fall to USD 2/MMBtu, producers will remain profitable due to higher global LNG pricing. The US is the largest LNG exporter and is set for further growth. The EIA projects LNG exports to rise by 15% to nearly 14 Bcfd in 2025, driven by increased capacity. MLP ETFs CAPTURE US ENERGY OUTPUT GROWTH WITH REDUCED EXPOSURE TO PRICES To capitalize on the expected growth in natural gas production, exports, and supply infrastructure, there are many alternatives. Investing into listed Master Limited Partnership (MLP) is one among them. An MLP is a publicly traded entity that combines the tax benefits of a partnership with the liquidity of listed stocks. MLPs manage midstream infrastructure like pipelines, storage, & processing facilities for transporting and processing oil & gas. The main drawback of MLPs is their complex tax form, potentially leading to higher taxes upon investment exit. To address this, an MLP ETF, which invests in a diversified group of MLPs focused on energy infrastructure, offers convenience of trading, diversification, high dividend yields, and simplified tax reporting. The low correlation to underlying energy prices has made MLP ETFs increasingly attractive to investors over the past year. These ETFs are the only one in energy segment to attract inflows in 2024, while broader energy and other subsectors faced outflows, according to ETFTrends.com . The largest MLP ETF in the U.S., the Alerian MLP ETF ( AMEX:AMLP ) recorded USD 1.30 billion in net inflows over the past year, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) saw outflows of USD 3.24 billion and 745.2 million, respectively. Since 2015, on average, AMEX:AMLP has gained 2.7% in January, while $Henry Hub has increased by 6.8%. Additionally, the ETF has exhibited a lower standard deviation, indicating less volatility. AMEX:AMLP tracks the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index ( LSE:AMZI ), which comprises North American-based energy infrastructure MLPs generating most of their cash flow from fee-based midstream activities. With an AUM of USD 9.6 billion, AMEX:AMLP is the second-largest energy ETF. The ETF has a yield of 7.87% and an expense ratio of 0.85%. The ETF’s largest holdings are major MLPs, such as ENERGY Transfer, NYSE:MPLX , and ENERGY Products Partners, among others. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The AMEX:AMLP gained significant investor attention post-Trump’s re-election, with net inflows of USD 518.2 million from 06/Nov to 20/Dec, including USD 152 million on 06/Nov—the highest in the past year. Its appeal lies in a healthy yield, low sensitivity to interest rates, and a fee-based model that stabilizes cash flows, making it less volatile than other energy subsectors. Looking ahead, MLP yields are expected to remain attractive as interest rates decline. However, since the start of December, AMEX:AMLP fell sharply while the $Henry Hub gained 17%. This correction in the AMEX:AMLP prices offers a compelling entry-level, given the favourable macroeconomic conditions and positive seasonality going into January. Bullish drivers aside, risks to the downside exist from policy shifts and weather linked price volatility. Portfolio managers who wish to invest into AMEX:AMLP ETF could consider hedging the downside risk using CME Micro Natural Gas Futures. Each lot of Micro Natural Gas Futures represents 1,000 MMBtu. CME Micro Natural Gas Futures contract expiring in February 2025 (MNGG2025) settled at 3.412/MMBtu last Friday. On that basis, each lot of MNGG2025 represents a notional value of USD 3,412. For the spread trade to be effective, a portfolio manager will require 72 shares of AMLP ETF to hedge against one lot of CME Micro Natural Gas Futures. This paper posits a hypothetical trade setup consisting of long 72 shares of AMEX:AMLP and short 1x CME Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas February Futures Contract (expiring on 01/Feb). An entry at 13.9 coupled with a target at 16.1 and stop-loss at 12.6 delivers a 1.27x-1.62x in reward-to-risk ratio. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
AMEX:AMLPLong
by mintdotfinance
GOLD rebound and limited, trading week with ChristmasUS economic data shows inflation is slowing. Supported by the weakening of the TVC:DXY and US Treasury bond interest rates, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase on Friday (December 18). However, the Fed's hawkish interest rate outlook caused gold prices to fall 0.9% last week. The Federal Reserve's headline inflation index (PCE) showed price pressures eased last month. According to data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.1% over the previous month. in November, slower than the 0.3% increase in October. The increase was slightly lower than economists' expectations of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, core PCE rose 2.8%, matching the increase in October and below Wall Street expectations of 2.9%. Overall PCE increased 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in October. Earlier this month, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and gas prices, showed prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in November, marking the fourth straight month of increases. Meanwhile, the core Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks price changes across companies, showed prices rose 3.4% year-on-year in November. The increase was higher October's 3.1% increase also exceeded economists' expectations of 3.2%. At a press conference following Wednesday's interest rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the final phase of the Fed's response to inflation will be more difficult than initially expected. “We were forecasting inflation at the end of the year, but as we got closer to the end of the year, the forecast was off a little bit,” Powell said. “I would say that's probably the biggest factor, inflation is once again missing expectations.” So far this year, inflation has slowed but remains above the Fed's 2% target, pressured by recent unexpectedly hot monthly "core" price growth data. According to the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed expects core inflation to peak at 2.5% next year, up from a forecast of 2.2% in September and falling to 2.0%. 2% in 2026 and 2027 to 2.0%. Higher inflation expectations, coupled with a slower pace of interest rate cuts next year, have weighed on markets. On the other hand, the election of Donald Trump as the next president has added to this uncertainty, with some economists suggesting that the United States could face another surge in inflation if Trump makes his move. True to his campaign promises. Policies proposed by Trump such as imposing high tariffs on imported goods, cutting taxes on businesses and restricting immigration could have an inflationary effect. These policies further complicate the Fed's future interest rate path. Data and events this week The market will also welcome the Christmas holiday this week, traders will focus on important events such as "where to get money to buy gifts for bears, where to go so as not to eat dog food, or open the door." Is it a pan or a greeting, honey,... I don't know but I wish you all a happy Christmas and good health hehe." However, some important economic data will be released. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: US consumer confidence Tuesday: US sustainable goods, US new home sales Wednesday: Christmas break Thursday: US weekly unemployment claims Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci level during the weekend trading session, but the recovery is also limited after testing the target resistance level noted by readers in the previous issue at the confluence of the upper edge. price channel and Fibonacci level 0.618%. Currently, the closing position still supports the possibility of a technical bearish price for gold, with the price channel as the main trend price channel, resistance from Fibonacci 0.618% and pressure at Ema21. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is still operating below the 50 level, quite far from the oversold area, which shows that there is still quite a lot of room for price decline ahead. As long as gold remains below EMA21, within price channel, it still has a bearish technical outlook and the notable points are listed below. Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,656USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2604 - 2606⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2600 →Take Profit 1 2611 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2616
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GHX GamerCoin I am not a financial advisor; this analysis is based solely on technical indicators and trends. Please consult a professional financial advisor for personalized investment advice. If the price maintains its current support level and breaks above $0.1861 (0.382 Fibonacci), it could move toward $0.2259 or higher, aiming for 0.618 Fibonacci at ~$0.2657+. If bearish momentum continues and the price drops below current support, it may retest lower levels The price is currently near its recent lows, which could act as a long-term support zone or buying opportunity. Beyond the 0.236 level, volume significantly decreases, meaning there could be a price acceleration if the price breaks out upward. The community strongly believes it will reach its fair price of 1$+. While $1+ may not be out of the question for GHX in the long term, achieving this goal likely depends on both project fundamentals and favourable market conditions. The technical indicators on the chart suggest that the token would need to break several strong resistance zones before this milestone can be reached. gamerhash.com
Long
by Vlad_Tesla