Fundamental Analysis
DAILY ANALYSIS - XAUUSD (TUES, 17th DECEMBER 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News:
-Core Retail Sales m/m
Analysis:
-Weak bullish closure on previous daily
-Looking for liquidity sweep on structure low
-Looking for BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe
-Pivot point: 2630
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy
Tesla's Bullish Outlook: A Closer LookBeyond its electric vehicles, Tesla is at the forefront of AI research and development. Its self-driving technology, Autopilot, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities are prime examples of this. These advancements have the potential to revolutionize transportation and significantly impact other industries.
The Impact of SoftBank's Investment
SoftBank's significant investment in US AI infrastructure further solidifies the growing importance of AI and its potential to drive economic growth. This investment could indirectly benefit Tesla, as it might lead to increased demand for AI-powered solutions and accelerate the development of AI technologies.
Kathy Wood's Bold Prediction
Cathy Wood's optimistic forecast for Tesla's future is based on the company's strong fundamentals, innovative products, and disruptive potential. While her prediction is ambitious, it's not entirely unrealistic, given Tesla's track record of exceeding expectations.
Technical Analysis and the $700 Target
The monthly chart you're referring to provides a long-term perspective on Tesla's price trajectory. While technical analysis can be a valuable tool, it's important to remember that it's not a crystal ball. Market conditions, economic factors, and unforeseen events can all influence stock prices.
Cautious Optimism
While Tesla's future looks promising, it's crucial to approach investing with a balanced perspective. While the company's long-term potential is significant, short-term market volatility and unforeseen challenges can impact its stock price.
Before making any investment decisions, it's advisable to conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor. Consider factors such as the company's financial performance, competitive landscape, and overall market conditions.
Remember, past performance is not indicative of future results. While Tesla has a strong track record, it's essential to approach investing with realistic expectations and a long-term perspective.
Not looking for drama!As the S&P 500 gets ready for the Fed announcement on Wednesday regarding a potential decrease in the Fed funds rate a dramatic move on Tuesday would not be expected without new information to stimulate the market. I am looking for a sideways the only slightly higher movement on Tuesday.
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✅ Suggestion: Open a long position in the live market (Spot).
🎯 Target Price:
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New update Bitcoin Bitcoin hit a record high of $106,533, fueled by speculation about a U.S. bitcoin reserve. It has surged over 50% since November 5, with a market cap surpassing $3.8 trillion and a 136% rise in 2024.
Bitcoin reached a record high above $107,000. MicroStrategy purchased 15,350 BTC, now holding 439,000 BTC valued over $46 billion. Riot acquired 667 BTC, raising its total to 17,149 BTC.
Bitcoin reached $106,500, now at $104,500, with a market cap of $2.07 trillion, accounting for 54% of the market. Analysts aim for $130,000, highlighting the need for support above $100,000
Update Bitcoin!Bitcoin hit a record high of $106,533, fueled by speculation about a U.S. bitcoin reserve. It has surged over 50% since November 5, with a market cap surpassing $3.8 trillion and a 136% rise in 2024.
Bitcoin reached a record high above $107,000. MicroStrategy purchased 15,350 BTC, now holding 439,000 BTC valued over $46 billion. Riot acquired 667 BTC, raising its total to 17,149 BTC.
Bitcoin reached $106,500, now at $104,500, with a market cap of $2.07 trillion, accounting for 54% of the market. Analysts aim for $130,000, highlighting the need for support above $100,000
ETHUSDT | Midweek AnalysisAt the beginning of the week, the price failed to take higher timeframe buyside liquidity and made a run to the low of the previous week.
Market Maker buy model framework.
I would expect the price to reach target 1, perhaps tomorrow with the PPI.
Next week we have Federal Funds Rate, so we could also see some consolidation the day before.The analysis is valid until then.
Apple Stock at $300When a stock is expected to reach new all-time highs, there’s often no clear technical level to mark those targets on the chart, my dear traders. However, from a broader perspective, Apple (AAPL) continues to demonstrate strong growth potential.
In my view, there’s no fundamental reason to believe the stock will not keep climbing. Apple remains a solid choice for long-term investors, backed by its consistent innovation, strong financials, and dominant position in the market.
While short-term fluctuations are always possible, the long-term trend for Apple seems intact. For now, the outlook remains bullish as the company continues to deliver value and maintain its leadership.
What are your thoughts? Let’s discuss!
AUDJPY Analysis - BuyAUDJPY Analysis Overview
1. Seasonality:
AUD: Bearish until midweek — Seasonal weakness in AUD early in the week aligns with a short-term bearish sentiment.
JPY: Bullish — JPY strength throughout the week supports its safe-haven appeal.
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2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders):
AUD:
4-week flip indicates a Sell bias.
Non-commercial short positions are increasing, signaling bearish sentiment for AUD.
JPY:
4-week flip indicates a Buy bias.
Non-commercial long positions are increasing, reinforcing bullish sentiment for JPY.
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3. Fundamental Analysis:
LEI (Leading Economic Indicator):
AUD:Decreasing — Suggests deteriorating economic momentum, adding to bearish pressure.
JPY: Range — Neutral economic conditions but still supportive due to JPY's safe-haven status.
Endogenous Factors:
AUD: Mix to Decreasing — Weak internal factors limit AUD’s strength.
JPY: Increasing — Improving domestic conditions support JPY buying.
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4. Exogenous Factors:
GBPJPY: Strong Sell — Broader risk-off sentiment in the market favors safe-haven currencies like JPY over risk-sensitive ones like AUD.
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5. Technical Analysis:
On the 1-hour chart:
A Cup and Handle pattern and an ABCD pattern are forming, indicating bullish potential.
After point C, the price is making Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), suggesting a bullish continuation.
These bullish patterns present a good Buy Opportunity, especially as the price confirms its breakout above the handle.
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Bias: Buy
Despite AUD's seasonal weakness early in the week, the technical setup on the 1-hour chart favors a bullish bias for AUDJPY. JPY's strength provides additional support for safe-haven flows, but the technical patterns indicate that AUDJPY has room to rally in the short term. Consider entering long positions upon confirmation of the breakout above the handle.
GBPJPY Analysis - SellGBPJPY Analysis Overview
1. Seasonality:
GBP: Bearish — Historical data for this time period shows GBP typically weakens.
JPY: Bullish — Seasonal trends favor JPY strength, aligning with a sell bias for GBPJPY.
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2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders):
GBP:
4-week flip indicates a Sell bias.
JPY:
4-week flip indicates a Buy bias.
Non-commercial long positions are increasing, indicating strong demand for JPY.
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3. Fundamental Analysis:
LEI (Leading Economic Indicator):
GBP: Decreasing — Suggests economic slowdown and bearish momentum for GBP.
JPY: Range — Neutral economic outlook, but overall supportive of its safe-haven appeal.
Endogenous Factors:
GBP: Decreasing — Internal economic conditions are weakening, favoring a sell bias.
JPY: Increasing — Positive domestic factors support JPY strength.
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4. Exogenous Factors:
GBPJPY:
Classified as a Strong Sell due to broader external influences such as global risk aversion and JPY's safe-haven demand.
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5. Technical Analysis:
On the 4-hour chart:
There is a visible order block and a fair value gap (FVG) in the price structure.
The price has retraced to 50% of the order block, presenting a favorable opportunity to enter a short position.
Confluence from bearish market structure and resistance zone further validates the sell setup.
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Bias: Strong Sell
Based on seasonality, COT data, fundamentals, exogenous influences, and technical analysis, GBPJPY is poised for a significant downside move. Look for selling opportunities at or near the current resistance levels within the order block.
NVIDIA set to make one more higher high to $165?Technical Analysis:
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A series of higher highs and higher lows in Weekly Timeframe:
NVIDIA has found support at $132, which previously acted as a resistance area during June, July, and August 24. If the stock continues to rise from this level, we could see another higher high (yellow cap) around $165. Alternatively, a deeper correction toward $104 could still be on the table if the support fails.
Fundamental Analysis:
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1) If NVIDIA struggles, it would suggest AI's momentum is waning—which is clearly not the case. This downtrend might simply reflect profit-taking by large traders.
2) The "Santa Rally" is in play, and NVIDIA appears to be on the "nice" list, signaling potential upward momentum.
3) NVIDIA's Blackwell product line is expected to contribute significantly to profits in the next quarterly earnings, potentially providing a substantial boost to the stock.
I bought NVIDIA stock at $145 and plan to hold sell at $160.
A Buying Opportunity Amidst Global Uncertainty.(Chart Analysis on H4 T.F)
The gold price has been trading within a flat top and bottom channel, indicating a period of consolidation. A strong horizontal resistance line and an inclined support line are visible on the chart. Notably, the trend has reversed three times from the resistance line and twice from the support line.
Currently, the trend is testing the support line, where we anticipate a third reversal. Following this, we expect the price to move towards the resistance line.
(News Impact on Gold Market)
The current global economic uncertainty, fueled by rising inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and the COVID-19 pandemic, has created a favorable environment for gold prices to rise. Recent news and events that may impact the gold market include:
- The US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, which may lead to a weaker US dollar and higher gold prices.
- The ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which may increase safe-haven demand for gold.
- The rise in COVID-19 cases globally, which may lead to increased uncertainty and higher gold prices.
Trade Setup:
Based on our technical analysis and news impact, we recommend opening buy positions in gold.
- Entry: Buy gold at 2645-2655
- Stop Loss: 2633 (below the support line)
- Target Prices:
1. 2670 (T.P1)
2. 2685 (T.P2)
3. 2700 (T.P3)
4. 2717 (T.P4, final target near the resistance line)
This trade setup offers a potential profit of 72 points, with a risk of 12 points. We believe that the current market conditions and news impact make this a attractive buying opportunity for gold.
EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Outlook Amid Strong SupportWith Trump’s win likely strengthening the U.S. dollar, EUR/USD has reached a notable support level that has held firm over the past year. This level may lead to a short-term bounce, but continued downside is possible due to factors like holiday spending patterns, potential new sanctions on China, and renewed confidence in the new administration. I’ll be watching for a possible move down to the 1.04 level if further bearish momentum builds.
PLTRTutes rinsed retail today and 3.7 billion dollars needs to be injected into the stock this week to rebalance the QQQ and indexes that track it. I’m sensing that todays pullback could be a retail rinse, sell the news event for institutions to get a cheaper entry. Look at that bounce this morning.
SPX500 forming a Double Top pattern, will it keep going up?Technical Analysis:
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SPX500 has formed a noticeable double top technical pattern. If it respects the double top pattern the price should touch around 5700. But if it keeps climbing the 6000 may become another support level.
Fundamental Analysis:
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1) Israel war seems to be calming, which should reduce the uncertainty and boost the stock market
2) Russia Ukraine war is intensifying as a result of latest attacks. This war has potential to undermine all other good news and could go with the double top (technical analysis)
3) Santa Claus Rally can boost the stock market in coming weeks followed by correction in Jan 2025
===== Happy Thanks Giving to all the traders ====
TSLA From Erections Come CorrectionsTSLA From Erections Come Corrections while double topping.
These are both very powerful structures that have formed and bulls should be very cautious. Taking profits here is advisable.
Fundamentally speaking it goes without saying, that TSLA is stupidly expensive.
Here is my previous bull call in TSLA that yielded a beautiful 50% plus return.))