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Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin: the $100K again in 2025 The Holiday season on the Western markets impact the lower trading volumes and lower volatility on the crypto market. This came as a short rest, after extremely volatile November and December. Regardless of a recent drop in value, still year 2024 was excellent for BTC and the crypto market, as the coin managed to reach additional milestones. The first BTC exchange traded fund was approved by the SEC in 2024, when BTC was further included into the mainstream market. The second milestone was a break of the $100K level, which was the next milestone for the price of BTC. The all time highest level for BTC was achieved in December, at the level of $107.800. The futures market continues to be optimistic when it comes to the price of BTC in the year ahead, implying a possibility that the BTC might reach a new ATH during the next year. Of course, there are always unpredictable moments, so the sensitivity of BTC will continue to hold and in this sense, its higher volatility. During the previous week BTC was trading in a relatively shorter price range, from $93,7K up to $99,7K. Still, during most of the time, BTC was testing the $95K support level. It could be expected that the BTC will close this year by testing this level. The RSI moved further from the strongly overbought market side, down to the level of 45. This is indication that the market is slowly eyeing the oversold market side, which might occur somewhere at the beginning of 2025. The MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, without any indication of a potential slowdown in the coming period. For the week ahead, it should not be expected to have any kind of high volatility on financial markets. The New Year short holiday is ahead, in which sense, trading volumes will not be the ones which could move the market to one or another side. Still, two weeks from now a new trading season is starting and a new fight for higher grounds.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XBTFX
Palladium: A Rare Trading Opportunity Palladium is currently trading at levels last seen in 2014 and 2018, hitting an extremely low support level. From here, I anticipate a bounce back to at least the previous high of $1,200 per unit. 📌 Next Target: My projection is a rise to $1,500, which marks a strong resistance level. Palladium is a highly demanded commodity, and at these low prices, it presents traders with an extraordinary opportunity to capitalize on its rebound potential.
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by Charts_M7M
SPX: optimistic in 2025?The last trading week for the S&P 500 passed in an optimistic sentiment, however, Friday's trading session decreased some of weekly gains. The index started the week at the level of 5.837, moved to the highest weekly level at 6.044, but ended the week at 5.970. The levels above the 6K could not hold. Analysts are noting that the US equity market could not sustain developments on the Treasury bonds market side. The 10Y US benchmark yields surged to the level of 4,6% on Friday. This came after concerns over US tariffs and future productivity. All sectors included in the S&P 500 posted daily losses on Friday, including the tech industry. TSLA shares were down by 4,5%. The major investment banks and companies provided some insights of their expectations for the US equity markets in the year 2025. The expectations are marked with policy uncertainties, especially taking into account the start of a new Presidency in the US and the market noise related to it. Considering uncertainties, some higher volatility might be in store for markets in 2025. Analysts from CITI bank are recommending to investors to turn their attention toward sectors with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations. Also they are pointing toward industries like health care, communication services and energy. Within the field of tech industry, CITI analysts are pointing toward the semiconductors industry sector. The biggest investment firm in the US BlackRock, provided their view on key topics for both US and emerging markets. One of the sentences noted in the document says “we see macro policy becoming a potential source of disruption”, which describes nicely the sentiment of economic analysts regarding the Fed's past policy moves. Industries to which BlackRock analysts are pointing to are those related to further AI buildout and the low-carbon transition. With respect to macro developments, they expect that the Fed will further cut rates in 2025, while the jobs market will remain under pressure as well as US GDP growth. Based on analyst forecasts, the year 2025 will be marked with uncertainties. Certainly some volatility might be expected, but general trends on equity markets from 2024 are most probable to continue also through 2025.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
EURUSD: calm weekDue to the Holiday season on the Western markets, there has not been too much important macro data posted during the previous week, while trading eurusd currency pair was relatively calm. Such low trading and low volatility is usual on the market till the first week of the New year. Durable Goods Orders in the US dropped by -1,1% in November on a monthly basis. This drop was higher from market forecast of -0,4%. The CB Consumer Confidence was also down to the level of 104,7, while the market was expecting to see the figure of 112,4. At the same time, there has not been important macro data posted for the Euro Zone. Markets used the last trading week in a year to continue to test the 1,04, the long term support line for eurusd. Considering the Holiday season, the volatility was relatively low. Trading range was within the spread of 1,0385 up to 1,044. The relatively low trading volumes did not manage to push the currency pair clearly below the 1,04 level, however, the pressure was holding from the previous weeks. The RSI was calm around the 40 level, without a strength to pass the 50 line and head toward the overbought market side. The MA50 continued to diverge from its MA200 counterpart, without any indication of a potential slowdown. The week ahead is also going to be a calm one. It could be expected that the eurusd will finish the year somewhere around the 1,04 level. Looking at the longer term scale, a potential break of the 1,04 level in 2025 would mean a clear road toward the parity. However, what will be the actual course of the currency pair would depend on a series of factors, including interest rate decision by both Fed and ECB, potential for economic growth, inflator pressures and unfortunately, geopolitical risks which are highly impacting markets for the last two years. Global trade and energy prices are also one significant factor which should be closely watched in 2025, hence its potential impact on both inflation and economic growth. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for December for Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment Rate in Germany in December, HCOB Composite PMI final for December for both Germany and the Euro Zone, Inflation rate preliminary for December in Germany, USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final for December, ISM manufacturing PMI for December, S&P Global Composite PMI final for December.
by XBTFX
Supply Glut to Weigh Down on WTI Crude Prices in 2025Outlook for crude oil prices in 2025 is a complex interplay of various factors. China’s fiscal & monetary policies, Trump’s energy agenda, OPEC+ strategies, and geopolitical developments will collectively sway oil prices. For now, the outlook for 2025 remains bearish. Analysts expect persistent oversupply, driven by rising non-OPEC+ production. Demand growth will remain tepid. T RUMP’S PRO-OIL STANCE TO DRIVE PRICES LOWER Trump’s pro-oil stance is expected to pressure oil prices by increasing US energy production in an already oversupplied market. In his victory speech, Trump vowed to halve energy costs by maximizing domestic US production, calling its reserves “liquid gold.” His plans include expanding drilling on federal lands, easing lease access, and fast-tracking energy infrastructure. In 2023, federal lands accounted for 26% of US oil output. Exploration & production slowed under the Biden administration due to reduced lease sales, higher royalties, and bond requirements. Source: Visual Capitalist & U.S. Department of the Interior – Bureau of Land Management During Trump’s first term, federal land lease issuances averaged 1.62 million acres annually compared to 138k acres under Biden, marking a whopping 91% drop. Trump’s first term saw US oil output rise by a record 3 million bpd, the largest increase under any administration. A second Trump term and a “Drill, Baby, Drill” mantra is expected to boost oil production. US producers require an average oil price of USD 64 a barrel for profitable drilling as per the Dallas Fed Energy Survey . However, reduced regulation, streamlined approvals, tax incentives, & potential reversals of Biden-era policies could lower production costs & encourage more drilling. TRUMP’S TRADE & GEOPOLITICAL POLICIES TO WEIGH DOWN ON OIL PRICES Escalating trade friction risks remain high, as Trump’s tariffs warnings on imports from Mexico, Canada, & China have fuelled uncertainty in global trade. Retaliatory measures, like those seen during 2018, could resurface. Rising supply and shrinking demand will press prices lower. For example, Chinese buyers shunned US crude due to tariff risks, widening the WTI-Brent discount from USD 3/b to over USD 11/b. However, with China’s share of US crude exports dropping from 25% in early 2018 to 7% in June 2024, spread divergence will be less pronounced. Source: ING Research Trump promises to swiftly end the Ukraine-Russia war and reduce tensions in the Middle East. For now, the specifics remain unclear. Success in easing geopolitical risks will significantly reduce the oil market’s “war-risk” premium, potentially driving prices even lower. Conversely, Trump’s staunch support for Israel and a hawkish stance on Iran may exacerbate tensions in the Middle East. In his first term, he re-imposed sanctions in 2018 that led to a sharp drop in Iranian oil exports. Under Biden, these sanctions remained but were loosely enforced, allowing Iran to boost output to 3.4m bpd from 2.5m bpd in early 2023. Trump’s return could bring stricter enforcement against Iran, potentially removing 1m bpd from the market. However, with most Iranian exports now directed to China, disrupting these flows may prove challenging. ING analysts expect Iranian supply to stabilize at 3.3m bpd through 2025. OPEC+ REMAINS WARY OF TRUMP’S SECOND TERM OPEC+ in its latest meeting delayed the phased return of 2.2m bpd of supply from January to April and extended some cuts through 2026. While these measures are expected to slightly narrow the surplus production in 2025, continued output growth from non-OPEC+ will weigh on prices. US oil production has surged by 11% between 2022 and 2024 to 21.6m bpd, eroding OPEC+ market share to its record low of 48% in 2024 from 55% in 2016 when the group was formed. OPEC+ fears a further rise in US output under Trump, which could diminish its ability to sustain prices. The extended cuts of OPEC+ in 2025 risk further declines in its market share. Prolonged low prices will shrink OPEC+ producers' oil revenues and increase the risk of disagreements within the cartel. Disagreements will result in OPEC members supplying more crude in breach of their production cuts. CHINA SHIFTING AWAY FROM CRUDE WITH WIDESPREAD EV & LNG TRUCK ADOPTION Deflationary pressures, persistent property market crisis and a rapid shift to EVs & LNG trucks are dampening crude demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer. It has been the key driver of global demand growth for two decades. According to China National Petroleum Corporation’s Economic and Technological Research Institute (ETRI), Chinese oil demand is projected to peak at 770 million tonnes in 2025. This is driven by growing adoption of EV, LNG trucks, and high-speed rail. Sluggish oil demand in China has led the EIA, IEA, and OPEC to lower their global oil demand forecasts several times. In December, OPEC revised its 2024 forecast downward for the fifth consecutive time. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Rising non-OPEC+ production & tepid demand are expected to amplify an oversupplied oil market in 2025, putting downward pressure on prices. Donald Trump’s energy policies are likely to exacerbate this imbalance further widening the gap between supply and demand. Portfolio Managers and Traders can express this bearish view using CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures. CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures offer the same exposure to crude oil price movements as standard WTI futures, but at 1/10th the contract size, making them a more accessible and flexible option for traders, enabling more granular hedging. This paper posits a short position in CME Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures expiring in March 2025 (MCLH2025) with the following trade setup: • Entry: 70.50/barrel • Target: 65.70/barrel • Stop: 72.00/barrel • P&L at Target (per lot): +480 ((70.50 – 65.70) x 100) • P&L at Stop (per lot): -150 ((70.50 – 72.00) x 100) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 3.2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:MCLH2025Short
by mintdotfinance
Xrp long termXrp for the long term support levels level 1 1.8486 Level 2 1.6759 And de last one must hold is Level 1.3058 The levels to gain Level 2.2003 The level to gain for the moonshot Level 2.6629 Disclaimer: Think carefully before making an investment and never invest more than you could afford to lose. We at legendsoffcrypto do not provide financial advice and are not responsible for any financial loss. The content we offer has purely entertaining and educational value.
by legendsoffcrypto
1
US 10Y TREASURY: adjusting to Fed`s narrativeThe largest surprise during the Holiday week on the Western markets was a sudden move of the 10Y US benchmark yields toward the higher grounds. The 10Y yields reached the level of 4,629% after weightening the Fed`s narrative from the last FOMC meeting. The market is now anticipating a more hawkish Fed's policy in 2025. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 2025, but there is no expectation that the Fed will make any move in interest rates during this meeting. As Fed Chair Powell noted in his statement in December, the Fed will continue to look at inflation and strength of the job market, before it decides on a next rate cut. Inflation is expected to stay sticky in 2025, while the market will continue to listen closely what Fed is saying.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: December 30 – January 5Last week in the news The Holiday season on the Western markets made its impact on lower trading volumes and lower volatility for US Dollar, the price of gold and the crypto market. As for US equities, the previous week was influenced by shifts in US Treasury yields. The 10Y US benchmark yields reached the level of 4,629% after considering Feds narrative over the future course of rate cuts in 2025. The price of gold ended the week relatively steady at the level of $2.621, while BTC had a modestly volatile week, but still testing the $95K to the downside. The week ahead brings another short Holiday, celebrating the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, when a relatively calm week should be expected. Without any significant news from the Western markets, the Japan monetary authorities were in the spotlight during the previous week. Namely, the Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato noted that the rate increase is still on the table for the BoJ meeting in January. The excessive movements in Yen during the previous period is not welcomed by Japanese monetary authorities, in which sense, an increase in interest rates would support its stabilization. However, the Ministry must take a cautious approach, considering a trajectory from the US economy. A potential hike would make borrowing in Yen more expensive, in which sense, some carry trading positions would have to be closed, which would at the bottom line have a negative impact on the US markets. Based on analysts' opinion, the big seven companies in the tech industry are going to be in the focus of market interest also in the future. Increasing demand for the AI ecosystem will further support businesses within the tech industry. The so-called “Magnificent seven” stocks are ending this year almost 180% higher, with market capitalization exceeding $3 trillion. During the year, Nvidia became the second most valued company in the US. Central bank moves in terms of further cut of interest rates is going to be in the market focus also during the year 2025. High inflation was put into control, based on which, both Fed and ECB made their cuts of reference interest rates during 2024. The trend is expected to continue also during 2025, however, at a lower pace. Fed Chair Powell noted at December's FOMC meeting expectations of further 50 bps cut of rates during 2025. On the other side is the European Central Bank, holding onto actual macro data in order to make a further decision on rate cuts. As inflation in the Euro Zone slowed down, a lower rate cut is also expected during 2025. Crypto market cap Although December was a tight month for the crypto currencies market, still, it should be considered that crypto coins had one extremely good year, with a few milestones reached. The year 2024 will be marked as the year when the first BTC spot exchange traded fund has been officially approved and started trading on traditional markets. The second important milestone for BTC was its $100K target. BTC is also ending this year with the all-time highest level reached during the year at $107,8K. Turning to the previous week, total crypto market capitalization was decreased by additional 1%, decreasing the cap by $30B. With the start of the Holiday season on Western markets, total daily trading volumes were significantly decreased to the level of $131B on a daily basis, from $397B traded the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $1.592, which represents a 97% surge from the beginning of this year. BTC closed the previous week at 3% lower from the week before, losing $58B in the market cap. This week ETH was flat, while the rest of altcoins were traded in a relatively mixed manner, as there were both gainers and losers. DASH gained almost 14% in value, while Theta and ZCash increased their market cap by more than 10%, each. This week the value of XRP dropped by 3,3%, LINK was last traded down by 4,7%, while the value of Maker decreased by 6,9%. As it comes to coins in circulation, few altcoins had a higher increase, including IOTA, with a surge in circulating coins of 0,5%, while XRP increased the number of its circulating coins by 0,3% on a weekly basis. For the second week in a row the number of Tether coins on the market decreased, this week by 0,6%. A drop in the number of coins also had Polygon of 2,2% on a weekly basis. Crypto futures market During the previous week both BTC and ETH futures were traded lower compared to the week before. BTC futures were down by more than 2% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December 2025 reached the last price at $103.410, while December 2026 closed the week at the level of $111.930. On a positive side is that investors still perceive positive development for the value of BTC in the future period. ETH futures were traded lower around 4% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December 2025 closed the week at the level of $3.601, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $3.837. The ETH is still struggling to sustain the $ 4K level on a long run.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
EURUSD Entry PointsAccording to the previous analysis, based on the weekly analysis, we can see that I am bearish biased on this currency before we have a massive bull run. Based on the 4H timeframe, we can wait for the price to retract up a bit, take some liquidity sweeps at the REHs ~Relative Equal Highs~ (touch the -OB ~ Order Block~) and have our sniper sell entry at 1.047 with the Stop loss at 1.050. Incase the price does not retract there, we can have our second entry at 1.037 and SL at 1.045. Let us wait and see what this pair will offer coming next week.
Short
by Vapari_Inc
Tow-case scenrioTrading volume: The trading volume during a bearish trend should be taken into consideration. If the trading volume increases during a price decline, it indicates greater selling pressure and confirms the bearish trend. In the chart, you can see that the trading volume is decreasing. News: Important news and events can also have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. Make sure to stay informed about major news and events. Caution: Given the current conditions and selling pressure, it is recommended to proceed with caution when entering a trade at this time. Monitoring: Carefully monitor the chart and pay attention to any changes in patterns and indicators ( Don't forget that indicators only provide insights into the past market and clarify volumes and trends for us. Do not rely solely on them for trading. ). Buying: If you intend to buy, wait for the price to reach the support level of $91,300 and look for signs of a price reversal. Risk Management: Be sure to use stop-loss and engage in trading with proper capital management.
Short
by Bpay13
USD is recovering because of hawkish policiesLast week, the global gold market had a quiet trading week, with prices capped at $2,650/ounce. This week, gold prices are also expected to remain flat due to the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and pressure from the recovery of bond yields and the greenback. Speaking about gold's movements in 2025, City Index market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said that although the US dollar and higher bond yields could negatively impact gold, there are still some supporting factors that could help the precious metal reach $3,000/ounce. The expert explained that amid persistent inflation concerns, the US Central Bank is expected to be more cautious in its interest rate decisions next year. This is likely to support bond yields and the US dollar, two factors that often reduce the appeal of gold. Higher bond yields have a significant impact on investment demand for the yellow metal, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding these non-yielding assets. “At the same time, the greenback’s resilience, supported by hawkish central bank policies and strong economic data, makes gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. These dynamics could limit gold’s upside potential in the first half of next year.” 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2625 - 2628🔥 💵 TP1: 2620 💵 TP2: 2610 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2637
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
BTC - 4H Consolidation LikelyThe current low market volume is typical during the Christmas and New Year holiday period, as institutional players and many retail traders reduce activity. This reduction in liquidity often leads to lower volatility and smaller price movements. In this scenario, BINANCE:BTCUSDT appears to be consolidating within a well-defined range, as highlighted by the resistance zone around $99,000 and the support zone near $92,000. With minimal external market drivers expected until trading activity picks up after the holidays, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is likely to remain range-bound. This sideways movement aligns with historical behavior during low-volume periods, where breakouts or significant trends are less frequent. Traders should consider this low-volatility environment when planning short-term strategies.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sober_Trading
Gold conquering the $3,000/ounce mark is possible.China and India, the world’s two largest gold consumers, are also facing domestic challenges that could dampen demand for the precious metal. In China, a weaker yuan and a sluggish recovery from the pandemic have made gold less attractive. India, the number two gold market, is also facing similar challenges, with a recent currency devaluation eroding its purchasing power, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive domestically. That’s particularly worrying because India accounts for more than 25% of global jewelry demand. Recently, the news that US President Joe Biden proposed to increase arms aid to Ukraine caused gold prices to surge due to safe-haven demand. However, immediately after that, gold prices were under pressure to decrease as the market waited for signals from the new economic policies of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump and the interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The world gold price has increased by about 28% since the beginning of the year, reaching a peak of 2,790 USD/ounce at the end of October. This precious metal is still considered an effective risk hedging tool, especially in the context of escalating geopolitical tensions. However, gold becomes less attractive in a high interest rate environment.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster