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Fundamental Analysis

Gold is Running Hot!The market experienced two consecutive days of selloff following the FOMC Chairman Powell's rate announcement. This reaction is reflective of heightened uncertainty and bearish sentiment immediately after the announcement. However, today marked a shift in momentum as the price finally stabilized, signaling potential exhaustion of the selling pressure. Buyers have stepped back into the market with conviction, pushing the price back into the buy zone. This area coincides with a prior consolidation zone, suggesting that it holds significant technical importance as a support level. The re-entry into this zone indicates renewed interest from buyers, possibly setting the stage for a rebound or further bullish momentum in the near term. PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenEdge
1
$AMD: The AI Challenger Closing 2024 Strong Introduction AMD’s 2024 journey has been marked by strong performance in AI and gaming, backed by solid product launches and strategic moves. 📈 As the year ends, AMD’s MI300 series has crossed $5 billion in data center GPU revenue, setting the stage for further growth in 2025. 💡 But is this momentum enough to solidify AMD as a long-term investment opportunity? Let’s explore. 🔍 Key Insights 1. Financial Highlights 💵 Stock Price: $119.21 (+0.28% today). P/E Ratio: 45, showcasing high growth expectations. Revenue Growth: +18% YoY in Q3, driven by data centers and gaming. 🎮 Note: While AMD’s valuation appears stretched compared to historical norms, its forward-looking growth potential justifies a deeper look. 👀 2. AI Market Expansion 🤖 MI300 Series Success: AMD’s data center GPU revenue surpassed $5 billion in 2024, boosted by adoption across cloud providers and enterprises. ☁️ Future Pipeline: The MI325X is set to launch in late 2024, and the MI350 series is planned for 2025. These products aim to strengthen AMD’s position in AI computing. Analysis: The global AI market, projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030 🌍, presents immense growth opportunities. AMD’s investment in AI-focused products and partnerships positions it well to capture a meaningful share of this expanding market. 🚀 3. Gaming and Esports Stability 🎮 Revenue: Gaming contributed $1.5 billion in Q3 (+4% YoY). Growth Drivers: Ryzen CPUs and Radeon GPUs remain popular for gaming rigs, while console upgrades and esports continue to fuel demand. Takeaway: Gaming remains a consistent revenue stream for AMD, complementing its more volatile AI and data center segments. 💻 4. Competitive Positioning ⚔️ Against Nvidia: AMD’s MI300 series competes in performance and adoption but remains a challenger to Nvidia’s dominance. Against Intel: AMD continues to outpace Intel in CPU performance and market share growth, reinforcing its reputation as a reliable competitor. 🏆 5. Undervaluation Potential 📊 AMD trades below key moving averages, suggesting a potential opportunity for long-term investors. Forward P/E could drop to 30 if 2025 earnings grow as projected, aligning with value-focused investment strategies. 📉➡️📈 What’s Next? 🔮 With 2024 closing on a strong note, AMD’s focus shifts to executing its 2025 product launches and capitalizing on AI market growth. Whether you see AMD as undervalued or overvalued depends on your confidence in its ability to sustain this momentum. 🧠 Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a professional before making investment decisions. 📢
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by DCAChampion
Daily Analysis of GBP to USD – Issue 176The analyst believes that the price of { GBPUSD } will increase in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA
Daily Analysis of Gold Ounce to USD – Issue 176The analyst believes that the price of { XAUUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by MoonriseTA
Why I’m Bullish on BTC Right NowShort-Term BTC Analysis After a recent correction, Bitcoin seems primed for a short-term uptrend. Here’s why: Technical Signals Point to a Rebound: • Volume Surge: November 11 saw a 3x volume spike at key price levels, suggesting strong buyer interest. • Bollinger Bands: The bottom band is providing support, signaling oversold conditions. • 50 MA: The 50-day moving average is also acting as a support level, adding to bullish momentum. • 10% Decline Factored In: BTC already corrected by 10%, clearing some of the overbought conditions. Trend Analysis: • The overall trend remains bullish. • A key support line has been tested successfully, while a resistance line has flipped to support after being tested twice—classic bullish behavior. With strong fundamentals and technical signals aligning, Bitcoin looks ready to move upward in the near term. Stay tuned for updates and insights! Don’t forget to like, share, and follow for more crypto market analysis. Let’s make the most of these opportunities together!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by themr-im
2
a significant fundamental devolopmentNSE:BANDHANBNK there has been a devolpment which should bring a change in attitude towards bandhan bank as an investment in my sense kindly read below Sub.: Grant of stock options under Bandhan Bank Employee Stock Option Plan Series 1 (‘ESOP Series 1’) Pursuant to the applicable provisions of the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015 (‘SEBI LODR’), this is to inform that the Board of Directors of Bandhan Bank Limited (‘Bank’), at its meeting held on December 24, 2024, granted 2,96,353 equity stock options of the face value of Rs. 10 each (‘ESOPs’), at the grant price of Rs. 164.38 (Rupees One Hundred Sixty Four and Thirty Eight Paisa only) per option to Mr. Ratan Kumar Kesh, Executive Director & Chief Operating Officer (‘ED&COO’) of the Bank when the esop has been granted at current market price my observation are as stated below Granting ESOPs at the Current Market Price: The exercise price of ₹164.38 matches the stock's closing price on December 23, 2024. This means employees will not receive the options at a discount. They can only profit if the share price increases above this level in the future. This practice indicates confidence in future growth but does not offer immediate financial advantage to the recipient unless the stock appreciates. Incentive for Performance: Employees are motivated to focus on long-term goals that drive the stock price upward. Since the options are granted at the market price, there’s no immediate gain; the payoff is tied to delivering meaningful results over time. Alignment with Shareholders: Leaders now have a vested interest in improving the company’s financial performance, as their personal gains are directly linked to shareholder returns. No Immediate Dilution: Since the ESOP is priced at the market value, it avoids concerns about significant undervaluation that could lead to larger dilution upon exercise. Bandhan Bank shows confidence in its market valuation, signaling to investors that it believes the stock price will appreciate. Shareholder dilution is minimal since the ESOP is priced at the prevailing market rate, meaning no intrinsic value exists at the time of the grant. Granting ESOPs at the current market price is a strategic move that ties leadership rewards to future performance without offering upfront monetary benefits. It aligns executive incentives with shareholder interests and signals confidence in the bank’s growth trajectory, though its impact will be realized only over the long term.
NSE:BANDHANBNKLong
by Tradegainer
2025 GBP/USD Outlook Fundamental & Technical PreviewFundamental analysis WHSELFINVEST:GBPUSD showed resilience in 2024, falling just 1% across the year. The pair experienced strong gains between April to September, rising from a low of 1.23 to a high of 1.34. However, GBP/USD fell 5% in the final quarter of the year amid notable USD strength, pulling GBP/USD from 1.34 to the 1.25 level where it trades at the time of writing. While the pound booked losses against the US dollar in 2024, GBP's performance against other major peers was impressive, rising solidly against EUR, CHF, CAD, AUD, and JPY. GBP/USD has been supported across 2024 by the BoE cutting rates at a slower pace than the Federal Reserve and by the expectation that this trend would continue in 2025. However, Donald Trump's victory in the US election, combined with the Labour government’s Budget, means that the outlook for both economies has changed, potentially impacting the direction of monetary policy in 2025 for both central banks and GBP/USD. GBP/USD outlook – UK economic factors Growth The UK economy is expected to continue to grow in 2025. However, GDP could be weaker than the 1.5% forecast by the BoE owing to several key factors, including uncertainty surrounding trade and a less expansionary UK budget. Trump’s second term in the White House brings uncertainty, and UK trade will be under the spotlight. While the UK isn’t directly in the firing line for tariffs, the openness of the UK economy means a global shift towards increased tariffs could hurt growth prospects. However, should the UK pursue and achieve closer ties with the US or the EU, this could help growth but not to the extent of reducing the impact of Brexit. The extent of the indirect impact of trade tariffs on the UK will depend on their magnitude. The UK is already experiencing depressed growth, which Trump’s action could exasperate. The BoE forecasts GDP growth of 0% in Q4 2024 and 1.5% in 2025. The OECD forecasts 1.7% growth, and Bloomberg's survey of economists points to growth of 1.3%. Inflation In November, inflation in the UK was 2.6% YoY, rising for a second straight month and remaining above the Bank of England's 2% target as wage growth and service sector inflation remain sticky. The labour market has shown signs of easing, but unemployment remains low by historical standards at 4.2%, and wage growth elevated at 5.2%. We expect some softening in the UK job market following the Labour government’s first Budget. Chancellor Rachel Reeves placed a major tax burden on employers with a rise in employer National Insurance contributions and an increase in the minimum wage. A broad range of UK labour market indicators point to a weakening outlook, with surveys indicating that UK firms (especially smaller firms) are scaling back hiring plans. Although wage growth and service sector inflation were slightly firmer than expected at the end of 2024, the disinflationary trend remains intact, with core inflation well below last year's highs. The BoE projections show CPI could reach 2.7% in 2025 before easing to 2.5% in 2026. However, this could be lower if the labour market weakens further and if growth remains lacklustre. Will the BoE cut rates in 2025? At the final BoE meeting in 2025, the BoE left interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, in line with expectations. However, the vote split was more dovish than expected, at 6-3 compared to the 8-1 forecast. This suggests that dovish momentum is building within the monetary policy committee for a rate cut in February. The central bank signaled gradual, rare cuts throughout 2025 amid sticky inflation, although policymakers are increasingly concerned over the growth outlook. The market is pricing 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025, supporting the pound. However, this could be conservative given that the labour market could weaken considerably following the Budget. A weaker labour market will lower wage growth and impact consumption, potentially cooling inflation faster. Uncertainty surrounding trade could ease inflationary pressures further in 2025, meaning deeper cuts from the BoE than the market is pricing in. As a result, GBP could come under pressure across H1 2025. GBP/USD outlook - US economic factors USD strength was nothing short of impressive in Q4. The USD index jumped 5% to reach a two-year high, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at a slower pace in 2025. Despite the outsized move in Q4, we expect further USD strength in 2025. At the time of writing, US CPI has risen for the past two months, reaching 2.7% YoY in November. Core PCE is also proving to be sticky, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Earlier confidence at the Federal Reserve that inflation would continue falling to the 2% target appears to have faded amid ongoing US economic exceptionalism and a cooling but not collapsing labour market. Signs of sticky inflation come as the US job market remains resilient. Nonfarm payrolls for November showed 227k jobs were added. Unemployment has ticked higher but is expected to end 2025 at 4.3%, down from 4.4% previously expected. Meanwhile, economic growth in the US remains solid. The US recorded Q3 GDP as 3.1% annually, up from 2.8% in Q2. According to the OECD, the US is expected to see strong growth among the G7 economies, with 2.8% growth expected in 2024 and 2.4% forecast for 2025. A combination of sticky-than-expected inflation, solid growth, and a resilient jobs market suggests that the US economy is on a strong footing as Trump comes into power. Political factors Trump is widely expected to implement inflationary measures, including tax cuts and trade tariffs. Inflationary policies at a time when US inflation is starting to heat up again could create more of a headache for the Federal Reserve continuing with its easing cycle. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2025? At its last meeting of 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second consecutive 25-basis-point cut and following a 50-basis-point reduction in September, when it kicked off its rate-cutting cycle. However, the Fed also signaled slower and shallower rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and policymakers’ updated projections confirm that the Fed will be much more cautious next year. The Fed increased its inflation forecast to 2.5% YoY, up from 2.1%, and isn’t expected to reach 2% until 2027. The market is pricing in just 35 basis points worth of cuts next year, and the first rate cut isn’t expected until July. However, Trump’s policy plans will be the most significant determinant of the Fed's decisions regarding rates next year. Technical analysis Overview The GBP/USD pair has been in a clear downtrend since its peak in May 2021, marked by a swing high of ~1.4205 and a subsequent low of ~1.1800 in September 2022. The recent price action suggests the pair is consolidating near key psychological and technical levels, hinting at potential future moves. This analysis incorporates a refined Fibonacci retracement that spans the broader bearish cycle for a more holistic perspective. Long-Term Fibonacci Analysis The updated Fibonacci retracement has been applied from the May 2021 high of ~1.4205 to the September 2022 low of ~1.1800. This adjustment provides a better representation of the long-term market structure and aligns key levels with historical price reactions: 23.6% Retracement Level (~1.4007): This level aligns closely with the psychological 1.4000 level, making it a key resistance area should the pair see a bullish recovery. 38.2% Retracement Level (~1.3884): This level historically coincides with areas of consolidation and resistance, suggesting it could act as a ceiling for mid-term rallies. 50% Retracement Level (~1.3785): Situated near prior structural highs, this is a crucial midpoint for evaluating the strength of any bullish correction. 61.8% Retracement Level (~1.3660): Often referred to as the "golden ratio," this level aligns with significant historical resistance, further reinforcing its importance. 78.6% Retracement Level (~1.3548): This deeper retracement could serve as an area of rejection in a bullish recovery scenario. Short-Term Impulse Fibonacci Analysis Focusing on the most recent bearish impulse, the Fibonacci retracement spans from the swing high of 1.3170 (August 2023) to the recent low of 1.2384. Key levels from this retracement include: 23.6% Retracement Level (~1.2612): The price has hovered around this level recently, suggesting it acts as a local resistance point. 38.2% Retracement Level (~1.2785): This level is bolstered by confluence with horizontal resistance, making it a critical test for bullish momentum. 50% Retracement Level (~1.2850): Represents a midpoint and potential short-term rejection area. 1.618 Fibonacci Extension (~1.2139): This provides a logical downside target should the bearish trend continue. 3.618 and 4.236 Extensions (~1.1164 and ~1.0644): These deeper levels indicate the potential for significant bearish continuation in the long term. Other technical indicators Moving Averages The 21-week SMA (~1.2924) remains above the current price, acting as dynamic resistance. The 50-week SMA (~1.2785) coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the recent impulse, reinforcing its importance. RSI and MACD The RSI (47.96) is below the midpoint of 50, indicating bearish momentum. Watch for divergence near key Fibonacci levels. The MACD histogram is negative, with no signs of an imminent crossover, confirming bearish pressure. Support and Resistance Zones Key Resistance Levels 1.2612: Recent price interactions suggest this is a significant short-term barrier. 1.2785: The 38.2% retracement of the impulse move, coinciding with the 50-week SMA. 1.3000: A psychological level with historical significance. 1.4000: The 23.6% retracement of the broader move and a long-term target for bullish recovery. Key Support Levels 1.2384: The recent swing low. 1.2139: The 1.618 extension of the recent impulse move. 1.2000: A critical psychological threshold. 1.1164 and 1.0644: Deeper Fibonacci extensions providing long-term bearish targets. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair remains in a bearish trend, with key levels from the updated Fibonacci retracement offering valuable insights for both potential reversals and continuation scenarios. Traders should monitor the interaction of price with the 1.2612 and 1.2785 resistance levels, while keeping an eye on the downside targets of 1.2139 and below. The RSI and MACD confirm bearish momentum, while moving averages provide additional context for dynamic support and resistance. A multi-timeframe approach will be crucial in navigating this pair over the coming months, with the broader trend still probably favoring the bears. -- written by Fiona Cincotta & WH SelfInvest
Short
by WHSelfInvest
Daily Analysis of Ethereum – Issue 236The analyst believes that the price of { ETHUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by MoonriseTA
1
Daily Analysis of Bitcoin– Issue 236The analyst believes that the price of { BTCUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend. Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by MoonriseTA
Again TLT, again 108 targetI’m still supporting 20+ bonds, and this time I’ve chosen the technical approach. I’m not entirely sure if I’ve made the correct calculations using the XABCD pattern, but the picture seems accurate. When the market has concerns about tax reductions, strict measures against migrants, sanctions, etc., and how all of this will affect prices and, specifically, inflation, don’t forget to consider the opposite side of reality. Before all these factors fully materialize, it will take years. During those years, the Trump administration is preparing to make aggressive cuts in public spending, introduce new optimization plans, and more. This can have a direct negative impact on both inflation and the labor market.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by gorgevorgian
NZD/USD Stabilises Ahead of the HolidaysNZD/USD Stabilises Ahead of the Holidays Forex trading is slowing down as the holidays approach, offering a pause after significant movements driven by various news events, including central bank decisions. Notably, NZD/USD reached its lowest level since October 2022 at the end of last week. The decline in NZD/USD has been influenced by two main factors: 1. The dollar gained momentum following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate by 0.25% and its forward guidance for 2025. 2. According to Reuters: → New Zealand's economy contracted much more sharply than expected in the second and third quarters. → Market participants anticipate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may lower interest rates by 0.5% in February. Technical analysis of the NZD/USD 4-hour chart depicts a bearish outlook: - The 0.58 level, which served as support in November, turned into resistance in December. - The price is currently hovering near the lower boundary of a descending channel that has been in place since October. - The RSI indicator signals that the market is approaching oversold conditions. While bears may attempt to extend the downtrend by pushing the price below last week’s low, this could create a divergence pattern on the RSI indicator, offering hope for a potential bullish reversal. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
AMD Stock Price Rebounds from Yearly Low. 2025 ForecastAMD Stock Price Rebounds from Yearly Low. 2025 Forecast As the chart indicates, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reached its yearly low on 20th December, dropping below $120. However, on Monday, AMD emerged as one of the top-performing stocks in the market. The trading session opened with a bullish gap, and by the close, the stock had gained approximately 4.5% compared to Friday's close. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rose by 0.7% on the same day. According to technical analysis of the AMD stock chart, in 2024, the price formed a descending price channel (highlighted in red), characterised by the following: - Bears broke below three trendlines, forming a structure reminiscent of Gann fans. - The fourth (lowest) trendline could serve as a strong support level, preventing the price from reaching the bottom of the channel. The sharp upward reversal from the $120 level may be considered a sign supporting this scenario. Price action suggests increasing demand, and analysts (as outlined below) believe buyers may play a more active role in 2025. AMD Stock Price Forecast for 2025 In 2024, AMD underperformed the market. Amid the AI boom, Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) stocks reached all-time highs, while AMD's stock price dropped by about 12% since the beginning of 2024. According to Yahoo Finance, the company’s strategic approach provides a rationale for investors to hold or buy AMD shares heading into 2025. AMD has historically avoided introducing revolutionary products. Instead, the company enters established markets with alternative products that offer specific advantages. This strategy could apply to the AI boom: - 2024: AMD’s stock declines as the company adopts a wait-and-see approach, assessing the AI market's needs. - 2025: AMD could benefit from the AI race, possibly through new processors in its EPYC series. According to TipRanks: - 22 out of 30 surveyed analysts recommend buying AMD shares. - The average price target for AMD is $182 by the end of 2025, representing a 46% increase from current levels. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:AMD
by FXOpen
4
COST with Strong Resistance Divergence **Costco (COST)** has not yet reported its results for the quarter ending in November 2024. The results are expected to be released on **December 12**. This warehouse club operator is expected to post quarterly earnings of **$3.79 per share** in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of **+8.9%**. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised **0.1% higher** over the last 30 days to the current level. Costco's revenues are expected to be **$62.37 billion**, up **7.9%** from the year-ago quarter. For now its expected to have a dropp down twoard the lower channel supported by strong negaptive resistance in addtional it seems Options Market makers are looking to burn 955 and 1000 Call 29 Nov Contracts
NASDAQ:COSTShort
by Nashwan
Bitcoin - More blood will follow (Do not buy now, buy here!)Bitcoin is completely manipulated by the banks and huge institutions. They sent Bitcoin down just to make your Christmas and New Year celebrations bad. But luckily I warned you about this crash a few days ago, just before it happened in my previous analysis, when almost everyone was drunk with strong greed. Bitcoin crashed by 15% so far; altcoins are down by 30% to 70%. The last days were very profitable, but let's focus on the future, because that's the most important. Bitcoin bounced a bit from 92k to 99k, giving players hope that the bottom is in. But do not be fooled, this looks like a corrective move for multiple reasons. The first reason is that the crash was extremely fast and strong, pretty much no one expected such a drop in the short term. My Elliott Wave analysis suggests that this is a strong impulse wave 12345 and therefore the start of a larger corrective structure ABC. We have finished wave A, now we are in wave B, and we can expect wave C to finish at around 85k! You want to take a Fibonacci extension, as you can see on my chart. I strongly recommend waiting for 85k because we have an unfilled FVGAP on the daily chart, and this needs to be tested. Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Short
by Xanrox
221
What Is the Difference Between Brent and WTI Crude OilWhat Is the Difference Between Brent and WTI Crude Oil for Traders? Brent Crude and WTI are two of the most important oil benchmarks in the world, influencing global markets and trading strategies. While both represent high-quality crude, they differ in origin, composition, pricing, and market dynamics. This article explores questions like “What is Brent Crude?”, “What is WTI Crude?”, and “What is the difference between Brent and crude oil from West Texas?”, helping traders navigate their unique characteristics. Brent Oil vs Crude Oil from West Texas Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are two primary benchmarks in the global oil market, each representing distinct qualities and origins. What Is Brent Crude Oil? Brent Crude originates from the North Sea, encompassing oil from fields between the United Kingdom and Norway, like Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, and Troll. This region's offshore production benefits from direct access to sea routes, facilitating efficient transportation to international markets. The North Sea's strategic location allows Brent Crude to serve as a global pricing benchmark and influence oil prices worldwide. This blend is slightly heavier and contains more sulphur compared to WTI. Despite this, Brent Crude is extensively traded and serves as a pricing reference for about two-thirds of the world's oil contracts, primarily on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). What Is WTI Crude Oil? West Texas Intermediate is primarily sourced from US oil fields in Texas, North Dakota, and Louisiana. The landlocked nature of these production sites means that WTI relies heavily on an extensive network of pipelines and storage facilities for distribution. A key hub for WTI is Cushing, Oklahoma, which serves as a central point for oil storage and pricing. This infrastructure supports WTI's role as a benchmark for US oil prices. Known for its lightness and low sulphur content, West Texas Crude is ideal for refining into gasoline and other high-demand products. WTI serves as a major benchmark for oil prices in the United States and is the underlying commodity for the New York Mercantile Exchange's (NYMEX) oil futures contract. Brent and WTI Crude Oil CFDs Most retail traders interact with Brent and WTI through Contracts for Difference (CFDs) instead of futures contracts. CFDs enable traders to speculate on price fluctuations without having to own the underlying physical oil. Instead, they open buy and sell positions and take advantage of the difference in the price from the time the contract is opened to when it’s closed. This makes CFDs a popular choice for retail traders looking to make the most of short-term price fluctuations in oil without the complexities of physical ownership, storage, or delivery. CFDs also offer leverage, allowing traders to control larger positions with smaller capital. You can trade Brent and WTI crude oil at FXOpen with tight spreads and low commissions! Check the recent oil prices at the TickTrader trading platform. Quality and Composition Differences Brent Crude is classified as a light, sweet crude oil. It has an API gravity of approximately 38 degrees, indicating a relatively low density. Its sulphur content is about 0.37%, making it less sweet compared to WTI. Brent's composition is well-suited for refining into diesel fuel and gasoline, which are in high demand globally. But what is WTI like? Known for its superior quality, WTI boasts an API gravity of around 39.6 degrees, making it lighter than Brent. Its sulphur content is approximately 0.24%, classifying it as a sweeter crude. This lower sulphur content simplifies the refining process, allowing for the production of higher yields of gasoline and other high-value products. These differences in API gravity and sulphur content are significant for refiners. Lighter, sweeter crudes like WTI are generally more desirable because they require less processing to meet environmental standards and produce a higher proportion of valuable end products. However, the choice between Brent and WTI can also depend on regional availability, refinery configurations, and specific product demand. Trading Volumes and Market Liquidity Brent Crude and WTI both see significant trading volumes, but they differ in terms of their market liquidity and global reach. As mentioned above, Brent Crude is widely traded on international markets, and it serves as the pricing benchmark for roughly two-thirds of the world's oil contracts. Its broad appeal comes from being a global benchmark, which makes it highly liquid in global exchanges like ICE Futures Europe. This high liquidity means traders can buy and sell contracts with relative ease, often with tighter spreads. As a result, it’s popular among traders looking for high-volume, internationally-influenced oil exposure. On the other hand, WTI is primarily traded in the US through exchanges like the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange). While still highly liquid, WTI's trading volumes tend to be more concentrated within the US market. Despite this, it remains a crucial benchmark, especially for traders focusing on the US oil industry. Its close ties to the domestic market mean liquidity can be slightly more affected by US-specific factors. Pricing Influences and Differences Between Brent and WTI The geographic focus and market influence distinguish WTI Crude vs Brent oil. Brent is a globally traded benchmark, making it more reactive to international forces, while WTI’s market is more US-centric, with pricing heavily influenced by domestic factors and energy dynamics. Therefore, Brent Crude and WTI often trade at different prices, with Brent Crude typically priced higher. This price difference, known as the Brent-WTI spread, reflects the varying dynamics between global and US markets. Traders keep a close eye on this spread, as it signals the relative strength of international versus US oil markets. Price Influences for Brent Crude - Geopolitical events: Brent is highly sensitive to tensions or conflicts in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East and North Africa. Any disruptions to supply routes or production in these areas can cause its prices to spike. - OPEC+ decisions: Since many OPEC+ members produce oil that influences Brent’s pricing, their decisions on production cuts or increases have a direct impact on its price. A reduction in global output typically raises prices. - Global shipping and transport logistics: Brent is traded internationally, so shipping costs, potential blockages in transport routes (e.g., the Strait of Hormuz), and other logistics play a role in price movements. - Global energy demand: Trends in global demand, especially from key regions like Europe and Asia, affect pricing. For instance, economic growth in these regions tends to push prices higher. Price Influences for WTI - US shale oil production: WTI is highly responsive to the levels of US shale oil output. When production surges, oversupply can put downward pressure on prices. - US oil inventory levels: Key storage hubs like Cushing, Oklahoma, are crucial for pricing. Rising inventory levels signal oversupply, which typically lowers prices, while declining inventories may indicate higher demand and push prices up. - Pipeline and transportation infrastructure: Bottlenecks in US oil pipelines or delays in transportation can influence WTI pricing. For instance, limited capacity in pipelines can restrict oil flow to refineries, leading to fluctuations in prices. - Domestic energy policies: Government regulations, taxes, or subsidies affecting US energy production can impact prices, with changes in drilling activity or environmental policies influencing supply levels. Which Oil Should Traders Choose? When deciding between WTI vs Brent, traders consider their market focus, trading strategy, and the factors driving each benchmark. Here’s an overview of what might help you choose: 1. Geopolitical Focus - Brent Crude is more sensitive to global geopolitical events, making it a strong choice for traders who focus on international markets. If you analyse global tensions, OPEC+ decisions, or international energy policies, Brent is likely more relevant. - WTI is less influenced by global events and more driven by US domestic factors. Traders focused on US politics, infrastructure, and energy policies may find WTI a better fit. 2. Market Liquidity and Trading Volume - Brent Crude is widely traded across global exchanges, giving it strong liquidity. It’s ideal for traders who prefer access to international markets and global trading volumes. Its liquidity also makes it attractive for those trading larger volumes or seeking tighter spreads. - WTI has high liquidity as well, but it’s more concentrated in US markets. This makes it better suited for traders with a specific interest in US oil dynamics. 3. Price Volatility - Brent Crude tends to react more to geopolitical shocks, meaning it can experience more volatility from global crises. Traders looking for opportunities driven by international supply disruptions or geopolitical risks might prefer Brent. - WTI is typically influenced by domestic production and inventory levels, which can result in different volatility patterns. US-focused traders or those tracking domestic shale oil production often gravitate toward WTI for its more region-specific volatility. 4. Regional Focus - Brent Crude is favoured by traders who have a global outlook or trade oil products tied to European, Asian, or African markets. - WTI is a solid choice for traders interested in US oil markets or those who rely on data from domestic US reports like the EIA. The Bottom Line In summary, understanding the differences between Brent Crude and WTI is crucial for traders analysing global oil markets. Both benchmarks offer unique opportunities depending on your trading strategy and market focus, whether you prefer the global influence of Brent or the US-centric dynamics of WTI. To get started with Brent and WTI CFDs, consider opening an FXOpen account for access to these key markets alongside low-cost trading conditions. FAQ Why Is Oil Called Brent Crude? Brent Crude gets its name from the Brent oil field located in the North Sea, discovered by Shell in the 1970s. The name "Brent" was derived from a naming convention based on birds—specifically, the Brent goose. Over time, it’s become the benchmark for oil produced in the North Sea, now serving as a global pricing standard for much of the world's oil supply. What Does WTI Stand For? WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate. It refers to a grade of crude oil that is primarily produced in the United States, specifically from oil fields in Texas, North Dakota, and surrounding regions. WTI is one of the key benchmarks for oil pricing, particularly in North America. Is Brent Crude Sweet or Sour? Brent Crude is considered a light, sweet crude oil. It has a low sulphur content, making it easier to refine into high-value products like gasoline and diesel. However, it contains slightly more sulphur than WTI, which is why it's marginally classified as less sweet. Why Is Brent Always More Expensive Than WTI? Brent is often more expensive than WTI due to its global demand and greater sensitivity to geopolitical risks. Brent is influenced by international factors, including OPEC+ decisions and conflicts in key oil-producing regions, which often lead to supply disruptions. WTI, meanwhile, is more affected by domestic US supply and demand. Is Saudi Oil Brent or WTI? Saudi oil is neither Brent nor WTI. It falls under its own classification, primarily as Arabian Light Crude. However, Brent Crude is often used as a pricing benchmark for oil exports from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSDEducation
by FXOpen
1
WHY THE SWISS FRAN MAY STRENGTHEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR THIS WEEKAs financial markets gear up for the final trading week of the year, the Swiss Franc (CHF) has emerged as a potential outperformer against the US Dollar (USD). This projection is underpinned by a confluence of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and market-specific dynamics that favor the safe-haven Swiss currency. The Safe-Haven Appeal of the Swiss Franc: The Swiss Franc’s reputation as a safe-haven currency is one of its strongest drivers. Amid global economic uncertainties—ranging from lingering concerns about China’s economic recovery to geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe—investors have increasingly turned to the CHF to safeguard their capital. With the US Dollar also serving as a safe-haven, the competition between the two often hinges on relative economic and monetary policy dynamics. Central Bank Policies: Diverging Paths: Recent monetary policy signals from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) have been critical in bolstering the CHF. While the SNB has indicated a willingness to maintain a cautious approach to interest rates, its prior hawkish stance has already anchored the Franc’s value. The SNB’s commitment to curbing inflation, alongside its readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets, underscores its proactive strategy to protect the Franc from excessive depreciation. In contrast, the Federal Reserve has signaled a more measured approach. Despite robust US economic performance, the Fed’s reluctance to commit to further rate hikes has tempered the Dollar’s momentum. This divergence in monetary policy trajectories provides an edge to the Swiss Franc, especially as the market anticipates potential recalibrations from the SNB in response to inflationary trends. US Economic Data and Dollar Weakness: The strength of the US Dollar has been contingent on a stream of positive economic data. However, recent indicators suggest a mixed picture. Slower-than-expected growth in key sectors, coupled with softer inflation metrics, has raised questions about the sustainability of the Dollar’s rally. Any further signs of economic deceleration in the US could diminish the Dollar’s appeal, indirectly supporting the CHF. Global Factors at Play: The broader global economic backdrop also plays a significant role. China’s faltering economic recovery has heightened concerns about global demand, indirectly boosting safe-haven currencies like the CHF. Furthermore, persistent geopolitical risks, such as tensions in the Middle East and ongoing uncertainty in Ukraine, continue to drive risk-averse behavior in financial markets. CONCLUSION : A Favorable Week for the Franc? While the trajectory of the Swiss Franc this week will depend on several variables, the currency’s fundamental strength appears intact. The interplay of SNB policy, US economic data, and global risk sentiment creates a conducive environment for CHF appreciation. However, the market remains susceptible to surprises, and a sudden shift in sentiment could alter these dynamics. For now, investors eyeing the Swiss Franc should remain vigilant, balancing the currency’s historical safe-haven appeal with the nuanced realities of an evolving macroeconomic landscape. TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK: SELL USD/CHF
Short
by design77
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 24, 2024 EURUSDIn the early Asian session on Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been trading with small losses near 1.04000. This is due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates less frequently in 2025, which is providing some support to the dollar. Trading volumes are likely to be low ahead of the holiday trading week. The resumption of the Fed's 'raise rates longer' policy will be a key factor in the final trading days of the year, which could provide significant upside for the US Dollar (USD).Last week, the U.S. central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by another quarter point, as per the latest quarterly schedule. The Fed committee has revised its expectations for rate cuts in 2025 and beyond. The Fed now forecasts a rate cut of just 50 basis points (bps), or two rate cuts, compared to four quarter-point cuts.Across the pond, the euro (EUR) is weakening amid rising bets for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that the Eurozone is "very close" to meeting the medium-term inflation target set by the ECB, according to the Financial Times on Monday. She also stated that the central bank would consider further cuts to interest rates if inflation continues to fall towards the 2 percent target, as curbing growth is no longer necessary. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.04000, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004