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Fundamental-analysis

NZDCHF - Continuation To The Downside!Analysis: This setup to us is ideal. Firstly price is clearly in a downwards trend and there is no doubt about this. We've seen price create a series of lower lows and lower highs which confirms that we are in a downwards trend. Knowing this we are only looking for shorts on this pair. Where price is currently is a very interesting area to us. Why? This area has held as major support in the past and as support recently so we now expect that it will hold as resistance. If you've been trading long enough you'll know that very often support can turn to resistance and resistance can turn into support. For more confluence at this area we have the 50% fib retracement level which we expect sellers will be sat at waiting before pushing price down further. We've also got an downwards trendline which has been beautifully respected multiple time showing us the bullish pressure and momentum on this pair. Fundamentally as well we're pretty neutral. Both the NZD and the CHF have almost the same long to short ratio so there isn't any real bias here until we dig a little further and we can see that the NZD only really had an increase in short positions by institutions whereas the CHF has an increase in both long and short positions by institutions so we actually have a slight bias to the bullish side of the CHF which goes with our idea and wraps up why we are bearish on this pair. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
30
EURGBP to 0.85? Anyone else with me?Hey Traders! 👋 For Day 30/100 of our challenge, we will look at EURGBP for downside potential this week/month Technicals: - Overall downtrend - Break below 0.858 support - Support created at 0.0.854 - Expecting retest back to 0.858 for potential shorts - Or a break and retest of 0.854 - Target is 0.85 - Invalid thesis when 0.861 is breached to the upside Fundamentals - Expecting less room for ECB to rate hikes; they will this month by 25bp but sound less hawkish - Expecting GBP to be stronger given better domestic data and an aggressive peak rate pricing That's all for today. Forecasts these week on TradingView has been awesome. Follow and stay in touch 🥂
Short
by rob_WRLD_
2
Short term hawkish sentiment bet on the euroFundamentals EUR: Hawkish rhetoric from the ECB and rates pricing in a 95% chance of raising rates is an appropriate sentiment environment for the short-term long. USD: Lower than expected inflation release yesterday can be a trigger for the euro surge in the short-term. Technical & other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Range Min. Target: MA(50) *Get out if the position isn't in profit before the Fed rate decision. If it is, tighten the stops and consider holding through the decision.
Long
by Cherry94
DOT/USDT 1DInterval Resistance and SupportHello everyone, I invite you to review the DOT chart in pair to USDT, on a one-day interval. First, we will mark two places where the price tried to break out of the EMA Cross 200 line upwards, unfortunately, both attempts ended in failure. Further, using the yellow line, we will mark the uptrend line from which the price broke out at the bottom, we are currently moving in the downtrend channel since the beginning of the last correction. Moving on, we can move on to marking the support spots, as we can see a strong correction caused the price to drop down to a very strong support at $4.22, in a situation where the current support did not hold the price, we could see a strong drop to around $2. Looking the other way, we see that the price has turned around and is heading towards the $5.07 to $5.61 resistance zone. If I manage to break the first zone, I will move towards the second stronger zone from $6.06 to $6.49 and then towards resistance at $7.13. Please look at the CHOP index, which indicates that the energy has been used, the MACD indicates that despite the current increase, we are moving in a downward trend, while the RSI, after a strong rebound, we can observe the beginning of an increase.
by cryptodailyuk
NZDCAD - Oil Price On The Rise, Could Mean A Bullish CAD!Analysis: Firstly just by looking at the charts we're able to tell that price is in a downwards trend. We've seen a series of lower lows and lower highs being formed confirming that we are in this downwards trend. We're now approaching a key level that has held as support and resistance multiple times so we expect this to happen again this time around. To add confluence to our area price is about to touch the 50% fib retracement level which we expect sellers to be sat at wanting and willing to enter into short positions pushing price down further. For more added confluence even though our trendline isn't at the area we're interested in it is still key as it shows that price is respecting this downwards trend that we're in, signifying that price is likely to hold the level we're at currently. Fundamentally the NZD is the 4th strongest major currency where as the CAD is the 2nd weakest major currency. This fundamentally really doesn't look good for our setup however if we dig a little deeper we'll see why we actually favour the CAD over the NZD. We have a speculation that oil prices will soon be on the rise again. Now why does this matter? Well Canada is the 4th largest oil distributer in the world meaning that the CAD is very often correlated to oil prices. If we see oil prices rise then so will the CAD. With our speculation on oil it starts to show early signs of a bullish CAD which is why we are bearish on NZDCAD both technically and fundamentally as well. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
BNB/USDT Is this the end of the current correction?Hello everyone, I invite you to review the BNB chart in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. As we can see, the price has broken out of the uptrend line. We also see that we moved the EMA Cross 200 for a while, however, after breaking this strong support, we received a strong drop in price, down to a very strong 0.786 Fib support at $222.8. Should the current support fail to hold the price, we will be able to see the price drop further around the $184.6 support. Looking the other way, we can similarly identify the resistance points that the price has to face. And here we can see that we have now hit the first resistance at $248.8 which for now bnb has no strength to break through then we have the second resistance at $288.6 the next resistance at $322.1 then the fourth resistance very strong resistance at $354.3. The CHOP index indicates that the energy has been used up and is slowly increasing, the MACD indicates a continuation of the downtrend, but with a visible flattening after the last decline, while the RSI recorded a strong rebound that definitely broke the lower limit of the range and now we see a return to this limit and a large scope for future price increases.
by cryptodailyuk
2
NZDUSD - Breakout Of A Range?Analysis: From the charts we can clearly see that price was stuck in a range until recently where we saw a breakout to the downside signalling to us that there is downwards momentum. With this bias we're only looking for shorts on this pair. Price has since returned to our area of interested, giving us the opportunity to look for shorts from this area. Why this area? Well for added confluence we also have the 50% fib retracement level which has been tagged and which we expect to hold and for sellers to continue to push price down further. Our second added confluence that we have is the downwards trendline that is clearly present on the chart. We expect that this trendline will be respected meaning that price will head to the downside. When we look at the fundamentals these also go in our favour. The USD is stronger then the NZD with the USD being the 2nd strongest major currency compared to the NZD which is the 4th strongest major currency so this helps our idea. For more confidence in this setup the NZD had an increase in short positions meaning that more institutions are starting to short the NZD. Now institutions have access to a lot more data then we do so there must be a reason why they are starting to short the NZD whereas we actually see an increase in both long and short positions on the USD. Although this isn't a positive it also isn't a negative as there are still institutions entering long positions on the USD. With all of the data we have access to and taking a look at the technicals and the fundamentals we are bearish on this pair! Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
8
EURAUD I Potential move higher with Employment Change ReportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURAUD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
2
EURUSD FED VS ECB RATE DECISIONFED VS ECB Eur is still Bullish TECHNICALLY, EUR has a good BUY SET UP having price lying on June candle major support. This implies that EUR bull momentum has riped technically. Today's FED is likely not have much impact because it's certain that ECB will add interest rate tomorrow. So lets expect hike in EUR price tomorrow. Position your self at tomorrow candle's opening price. this is my personal ideas, So do your own analysis for proper confirmation
Long
by Lordval_Austine
1
CADJPY Upside PotentialHey Traders! 👋 For Day 28/100 of our challenge, we will look at CADJPY for upside potential this week/month Technicals: - Stuck in bullish range 104.8-103.6 - Mostly a fundamental-driven trade - Engage in longs only when support above 104.8 is formed Fundamentals: - BoC surprise hike; regains status as hawkish CB - BoJ meeting this week not expecting any shift from loose policy stance - Rebound in commodity prices should help the CAD Sentiment - CAD also being net short for leveraged funds but JPY is a stronger short - Retail positioning extreme short territory (we want to go against them) That's it for today! A more in-depth view with technicals, fundamental, and sentiment. This is 1/6 of our watchlist. What's in your watchlist? Anyways, safe trading and see you tomorrow! 🥂
Long
by rob_WRLD_
Stick with the broader perspective on Eurozone - short euroFundamentals EUR: There are indeed hawkish expectations as ECB officials reiterated the need for further hikes in June-July to tame sticky inflation. However, most if not all leading indicators' latest readings point to a decrease in economic activity. I believe yesterday's spike is the result of pricing in those hawkish expectations, which is overdone. The idea is to follow the bigger picture of the economic conditions in the Eurozone. ECB may try to hike rates a few times to fight inflation, but the major downtrend in the euro should continue unless leading indicators show some improvements. Additionally, the positioning of retail traders is mostly long - an old habit of fighting a fundamental trend. At some point the retailers should take their losses, feeding the downtrend. USD: Yes, there's a pause in rate hikes expected in June, but Fed has been more successful in lowering inflation, while recent data showed some signs of improvement in economic conditions (consider Retail sales and NFP). Also, the medium-term Fed's outlook is still quite hawkish because inflation is still well above the regulator's target Technical & other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Range Min. Target: MA(10) *The market is likely to range until FOMC, so the target is quite limited.
Short
by Cherry94
4
Follow me: Gold will focus on the 1970-73 area next week, layoutHow was last week my friend? Gold fell back quickly after rising to around 1973 on Friday. Obviously, it still lacks motivation. The big Yin line was covered directly, and it also closed the upper shadow line. This is unreasonable. It has once again verified the strength of the upper resistance level. Next week we can Continue to implement the high short-selling strategy. The hourly line of the gold price is in a downward trend. The high point connection is a downward trend, and the k-lines are all in a downward trend. At present, it is still difficult to achieve 1980. As long as we do not break through this historic resistance, we will be short. At the same time, 1985 ~1940 is also a wide range of shocks as a whole, breaking through the 1940 line, you can increase your position and short. Our direction for next week is very clear, look for opportunities to go short below 1980, once we break through this resistance level, we will adjust and go long in time! Operating strategy: XAUUSD: 1970sell 1940tp. 1980sl
TVC:GOLD
by ActuaryJ
Daily BTC 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the downtrend channel in which the BTC price is moving. Further, we can see that the price bounces in a place just before the EMA Cross 200 line, which indicates the continuation of the long-term uptrend. Now we can move on to marking support areas in case of deepening correction. And here we first have support at $24868, but when the price goes lower we have very strong support at $24049, then third support at $23361 and fourth support at $22672. Looking the other way, in a similar way, using the trend based fib extension tool, we can determine the places of resistance. And here the first significant resistance will appear at the price of $28069, then the second resistance at the price of $29725, the third resistance at the price of $31102, only when the price breaks it will move towards the resistance at $32441. Please pay attention to the CHOP index which indicates that we have a lot of energy for the next price movements, the MACD indicator indicates a downward trend, while the RSI shows a visible rebound, but there is still room for the price to go down to lower levels in the coming days.
by cryptodailyuk
1
Silver Linings Trade BookAt the expense of using a mixed metaphor, silver may at times appear to be a mercurial trading instrument. Even if you only trade silver as a CFD product, utilising pure technical analysis, and without holding any of it as a physical asset, you should still be aware of the macroeconomic context that influences this metal alongside supply and demand fundamentals. Silver, according to many players in the market, is heavily manipulated by some of the big banks as well as the U.S. Fed and Treasury. By manipulation, we mean a suppression of the real price of silver given bullish fundamentals that should translate into much higher prices. Let’s first discuss the safe haven nature of silver. Four precious metals typically interest safe haven investors, namely gold, silver, platinum and palladium. It may come as a surprise to many that gold is not always the strongest and safest of havens and indeed during certain periods, silver, along with platinum and palladium, has acted as a safe haven when gold has not. Silver has been resilient in this regard as seen through the Covid-19 pandemic when its position as a safe haven asset climbed 47.89% between 31/12/2019 and 31/12/2020 compared to 25.12% for gold, 25.86% for palladium and 10.92% for platinum during the same period. Silver’s backbone though is built from its use as an industrial metal and although industrial demand has been fickle since Covid-19, that’s still not been as fickle as investment demand since that time. As of January 2020, industrial buyers accounted for more than 50% of demand for the metal. Recent bearish economic data from key markets such as the U.S., China and Germany has put a lid on any attempts at a parabolic move eyeing the highs of Feb 2021 despite gold hitting an all-time high recently. When the global economy emerges from troubled waters, the global drive for cleaner energy will resume in earnest and make silver a key decarbonisation trade and we may see a resumption of the 2020 bull run. There is still room for a momentum rebound with a change in sentiment and consequent space to manoeuvre between where we are at the moment and the $30 high reached in early Feb 2021 and between that top and the all-time high of $49 in 2011. Technical traders using leverage on gold CFDs, especially intra-day traders, get nervous when they look at the price action of silver in comparison. Silver’s price action is not as smooth as gold’s and the daily ranges may also appear tighter in comparison but this is in part due to silver’s wider use in industry compared to the yellow metal. As a result, silver has more cyclical characteristics than gold but this helps contextualise patterns and trends for trade analysis. Traders are losing out on not trading silver because intra-day trades as well as swing/position trades can offer an excellent risk to reward ratio with this instrument. Silver, like gold, is also offered by many brokers with a very reasonable spread and ones that are also much lower compared to platinum and palladium. As always, remember that when you go to market, be careful out there.
TVC:SILVER
by BluetonaFX
7
Inflation & Geopolitical Context should support Gold in MidtermNonetheless, Q1 2023 gold fundamentals were still interesting and most likely, the Central Banks' interest in gold could continue for much longer. In our view, the current inflationary and geopolitical environment will still support the yellow metal in mid-term, at least for the next 12-24 months. Gold Demand Trends Q1 2023 (Mixed picture for gold demand in Q1) Continued momentum in central bank buying and resurgent Chinese consumer demand contrasted with a negative contribution from ETFs and weakness in India. Q1 gold demand (excluding OTC) was 13% lower y/y at 1,081 tonnes (t). Inclusive of OTC, total gold demand strengthened 1% y/y to 1,174t as a recovery in OTC investment – consistent with investor positioning in the futures market – offset weakness in some areas. Demand from central banks experienced significant growth during the quarter. Official sector institutions remained keen and committed buyers of gold, adding 228t to global reserves. Bar and coin investment gained 5% y/y to 302t, concealing some large regional variations. In contrast, net negative demand for ETFs, although modest at -29t, generated a hefty y/y decline compared with the sizable inflows seen in Q1’22. Global jewellery consumption was virtually flat at 478t. Jewellery fabrication exceeded consumption as stock building added just over 30t to global inventories. Gold use in the technology sector continued to suffer from the challenging economic climate. Demand slumped to 70t – the second lowest quarter in our data series back to 2000. Modest growth in both mine production (+2%) and recycling (+5%) led to a marginal increase in Q1 total gold supply to 1,174t. The uptick in recycling was largely a function of higher gold prices. The LBMA Gold Price (PM) averaged US$1,890/oz during the quarter, marginally higher y/y. The price was over 10% higher than the previous quarter’s average, almost matching the Q3’20 record high. China saw a strong relief rally in the first post-COVID quarter of unfettered consumer spending. The recovering domestic economy and healthy income growth reignited domestic consumption, while the eye-catching gold price performance spurred investment interest. Indian demand fell sharply as local gold prices applied the brakes . Record high – and volatile – domestic gold prices discouraged both investment and jewellery consumption during the quarter. Investment dominates the outlook for 2023. We continue to see healthy upside for investment this year, while the picture for fabrication (jewellery and technology) is more muted. Further robust central bank buying is expected, albeit below 2022’s record. Modest growth is likely in both mine production and recycling. In conclusion , in addition to waiting with confidence for Q2 data, in short term the gold price could be slightly high to increase institutional appetite, but we think that any downward peak will be seen by Central Banks as an interesting opportunity to add value to their reserves. Conversely, but only in the short term, speculators could lighten some positions by taking part in the profits. Technically speaking , in near term, gold could trigger some bearish consolidation as we have shown in our previous analysis. (Click & Play on chart below to follow it) Trade with care! Like 🚀 if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheAnonymousBanker
2