XAUUSD : Gold cools down after strong growthXAU/USD is moving sideways and fluctuating around 2,324 USD/ounce. After a volatile week, the world gold market is expected to stabilize this week with few important new data released. The most awaited information by the market is the core PCE index report expected to be published at the end of the week. This report is expected to create strong volatility in the market, if weaker data could increase the possibility that the Fed will lower interest rates in 2024 and will support the precious metal. On the contrary, "hotter" inflation than expected will cause XAU/USD to fall deeper.
Forextrading
EUR/AUD Long and AUD/JPY ShortEUR/AUD Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse up above area of interest.
• If 3 touch 5 min continuation or 2 touch 5 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, risk entry within it or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
AUD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 5 min continuation or 2 touch 5 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, risk entry within it or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
The Fed will cut interest rates in Septemberbuyers are presently pricing in approximately a 64% hazard that the Fed will reduce hobby fees in September. Lower hobby fees lessen the possibility price of keeping non-couponing bullion.
World gold fees multiplied today (June 21) while the United States launched the state-of-the-art financial information displaying the possibility that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep better hobby fees for an extended length of time.
The state-of-the-art information launched with the aid of using the United States on Thursday (June 20) confirmed that the wide variety of Americans making use of for brand spanking new unemployment blessings reduced withinside the week finishing June 14. Employment stays strong, elevating the possibility that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) might also additionally keep better hobby fees for longer.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, buyers are presently pricing in approximately a 64% hazard that the Fed will reduce hobby fees in September. Lower hobby fees lessen the possibility price of keeping non-couponing bullion.
XAU surged as the US released new economic dataWorld gold prices increased today (June 21) when the US released the latest economic data showing the prospect that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time.
The latest data released by the US on Thursday (June 20) showed that the number of Americans applying for new unemployment benefits decreased in the week ending June 14. Employment remains strong, raising the prospect that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may maintain higher interest rates for longer.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in about a 64% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-couponing bullion.
Gold analysis week 27The gold market maintained a steady recovery ahead of the weekend, but the overall trend remains unclear as US consumer confidence continues to decline and inflation expectations remain high. The new divergence between the Fed's interest rate forecast and market expectations could bring some volatility to the gold market in the short term.
China is the main driving force behind the increase in gold prices over the past year, and China's gold purchases have only been assessed as temporary and there has not been any move to show that they have "stopped". could also be a move to avoid paying a record high purchase price. The market will get some preliminary and regional manufacturing data as well as some US housing data next week.
Gold has recovered from the support level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD but in general the recovery momentum is still limited and the downtrend has not been broken yet.
The recovery momentum of gold price is limited by the confluence area of technical point 2,340 in the trendline area which is also the nearest peak, followed by resistance level 2355 where gold breaks the bullish structure,
As long as gold remains below the 34 EMA and 89 EMA, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish, while if gold breaks below $2,324 it will have room for more downside with the following target level. That's around $2,305 - $2,300 in the short term. A new bearish cycle is expected to open once gold breaks below the original price of $2,300, and the target level is then 2286 and then 2270.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300 - 2286
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,355
XAUUSD : Does gold have the ability to recover strongly?XAU/USD is increasing slightly and hovering around 2,337 USD/ounce. According to American Bank Wells Fargo, this precious metal may continue to consolidate throughout the summer as the market accepts the Fed's tightening policy.
In an interview with Kitco News, John LaForge, Director of Real Asset Strategy at the bank, said: "Central banks will continue to buy wine, while also seeing solid upside potential in gold." quarterly through 2025. According to Wells Fargo's mid-year updated price forecast, gold prices are expected to trade between 2,300-2,400 USD/ounce."
EUR/AUD Long and AUD/CHF ShortEUR/AUD Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse up above area of interest.
• If 3 touch 5 min continuation or 2 touch 5 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, risk entry within it or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
AUD/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/USD Faces Pressure, Eyes Potential Bullish RetracementFollowing Wednesday's surge, EUR/USD reversed course and experienced significant losses on Thursday. The pair remains under pressure on Friday, trading at its lowest level since early May, just below 1.0700. This downturn reflects the broader market sentiment and the evolving economic landscape.
The shift in risk sentiment helped the US Dollar (USD) gain strength during the American trading hours on Thursday. Additionally, the negative impact of soft inflation data on the USD began to dissipate as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's policy outlook in light of the hawkish revisions to the Summary of Economic Projections. The Fed's commitment to its current monetary policy stance has provided a boost to the USD, further pressuring the EUR/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the price has reached a strong support area. Here, we observe a double divergence on both the RSI and Stochastic indicators, signaling potential bullish momentum. Furthermore, the price has touched the 78.6% retracement level from the previous swing low, adding to the likelihood of a reversal. These technical indicators suggest that the EUR/USD may be poised for a bullish retracement.
Despite the current downward pressure, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of resilience. The technical indicators provide a hopeful outlook for traders looking for a recovery. The double divergence on the RSI and Stochastic indicators, coupled with the critical 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, points towards a potential rebound. Traders will be closely monitoring these indicators for confirmation of a bullish trend reversal in the coming sessions.
Central bank purchases of gold affect goldWorld gold charges reversed to growth barely whilst the trendy record confirmed that US retail income had been weaker than expected.
Specifically, in line with the Statistics Department of americaA Department of Commerce, the country`s retail income extended via way of means of 0.1% in May. Previously, economists had forecast an growth of 0.3%.
Disappointing monetary statistics has bolstered hopes that americaA Federal Reserve (FED) will lessen hobby prices this year, placing strain at the greenback and US Treasury yields.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, buyers are presently pricing in approximately a 67% risk that the Fed will reduce hobby prices in September. Lower hobby prices will gain gold as it reduces the possibility fee of retaining Precious metals do now no longer deliver this hobby.
XAUUSD : Gold will bounce back stronglyXAU/USD is moving sideways and trading around 2,322 USD/ounce.
According to senior market analyst Jim Wyckoff of Kitco Metals, gold prices fluctuate when influenced by external factors due to a lack of important new fundamental news. In this context, Wyckoff predicts, prices will likely move sideways
about 2,300 - 2,400 USD/ounce for the next important catalyst and he believes that these catalysts will not appear until July.
World gold prices weakened in the context of some US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials predicting interest rate cuts in December this year. This causes US government bond interest rates to increase to nearly 4.3%, causing disadvantages for gold - a non-yielding asset.
GBP/CHF Short, AUD/CHF Short and EUR/USD LongGBP/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
AUD/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
EUR/USD Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse up above AOI.
• 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBP/USD Nears Monthly Low as Fed Maintain Interest Rate FirmnessThe Pound Sterling (GBP) continued its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive trading day on Monday. The GBP/USD pair is currently hovering near its monthly low, around 1.2660, as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance on interest rates maintains the US Dollar's strength.
Fundamental Analysis
Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook
The Fed's current position is to reduce interest rates only once this year. However, financial markets are speculating that the Fed might implement two rate cuts and begin unwinding its restrictive policy framework starting from the September meeting, with potential subsequent cuts in November or December. This speculation is driven by the soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for May, which have increased expectations for early rate cuts.
Impact on GBP/USD
The Fed’s firm stance on maintaining higher interest rates supports the US Dollar's appeal, exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Despite the market's expectations for rate cuts, the immediate outlook for the USD remains strong, making it difficult for the GBP to gain ground.
Technical Analysis
Divergence and Support Levels
Despite the bearish trend, technical analysis reveals that the GBP/USD pair is showing a divergence on the H4 timeframe. Divergence occurs when the price movement contradicts the signal from technical indicators, often suggesting a potential reversal or slowdown in the current trend.
The current price action is also situated in a demand area of support, which aligns with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. These Fibonacci levels are commonly used to identify potential support and resistance zones where price reversals might occur.
Trading Strategy
Given the technical setup, we have identified a range area where the price is currently trading. Although the pair has seen a significant drop, the divergence and support confluence suggest a potential for a reversal or at least a temporary stabilization.
To manage risk effectively, a stop loss is placed just below the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci support levels. This ensures that if the price breaks through these key support areas, it signals a clear change in the main trend, and the trade can be exited with minimal losses.
The Fed repeatedly delayed interest rate cutsWorld gold expenses reduced withinside the context that the USD maintained its electricity and bond hobby charges persevered to growth.
Recently, americaA Federal Reserve`s (Fed) consecutive adjustments in financial coverage have placed robust stress at the gold market, pushing expenses an awful lot decrease than all-time report levels.
However, despite the fact that gold is present process a consolidation process, many professionals say that gold has many superb elements to growth its price. In particular, Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen stated that the contemporary call for for treasured metals remains robust sufficient to maintain expenses from plummeting, or maybe growth.
Other professionals say that buyers nonetheless assume the primary hobby charge reduce in September, that's an vital riding pressure to guide gold expenses.
USDCAD: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: USDCAD
Pattern – Continuation
Support – 1.3715
Resistance – 1.3780
Hi, traders. Thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at USDCAD on its daily chart.
Looking back at price, we have evidence that a continuation is trying to form. After the first break higher, which broke out of the move lower, we saw consolidation, which has now also broken higher.
Will we see today's bar post a strong close, showing buyers are set to push through the rejection that we have seen in the last several sessions?
We want to see a firm close and a hold above support; otherwise, sellers could be setting up for a new test lower.
Good trading.
World gold prices decreased in the context of the USD still mainWorld gold prices decreased in the context that the USD maintained its strength and bond interest rates continued to increase.
Recently, the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) consecutive changes in monetary policy have put strong pressure on the gold market, pushing prices much lower than all-time record levels.
However, even though gold is undergoing a consolidation process, many experts say that gold has many positive factors to increase its price. In particular, Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen said that the current demand for precious metals is still strong enough to keep prices from plummeting, or even increase.
Other experts say that investors still expect the first interest rate cut in September, which is an important driving force to support gold prices.
AUD/CAD Short, GBP/CHF Short, AUD/CHF Short and USD/SGD ShortAUD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
GBP/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
AUD/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
USD/SGD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down.
• 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
XAUUSD : Gold will turn up again this weekXAU/USD is trading around 2,322 USD/ounce, down 11.6 USD/ounce compared to last week's result.
Adrian Day, of Adrian Day Asset Management, said gold prices are recovering after last week's sell-off amid dovish US economic news, weak inflation figures and higher unemployment claims, both support cuts
interest rate.
Colin Cieszynski, market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said gold prices are poised for a technical bounce from support levels. Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart, said gold's next target is $2,370/ounce, followed by resistance at $2,391/ounce.