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Inflation returns and sends XAU soaringThe strength of the US labor market appears to be fading as a restrictive policy framework remains in place. The unemployment rate in June, at 4.1%, was recorded as the highest in more than two years. In addition, JOLTS Open Jobs data increased almost steadily in June. The number of job vacancies in June reached 8.18 million compared to expectations of 8.03 million but lower than the previously released figure of 8.23 ​​million, indicating that demand for jobs has been waning. On the other hand, bullion also benefited from safe-haven buying after an airstrike killed a Hamas leader in Tehran, Iran. Israel is believed to have carried out the assassination. The news angered Iran and its proxy groups across the Middle East.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
DXY on the riseWhile the Fed left rates unchanged, both the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference strongly suggested that the first rate cut was likely at the next meeting in September. The statement shifted the Fed's focus from a tilt toward higher inflation to a focus on both inflation and employment risks. He followed that up with repeated references to concerns that the welcome cooling in labor market conditions could go too far, threatening the full employment goal. The chairman also admitted that "some" members of the Committee had considered cutting rates at the last meeting, although all voted to keep rates unchanged. At one point, Chairman Powell admitted that a September rate cut was "on the table" although he dismissed suggestions that a 50bp cut was being considered. With the timing and magnitude of the first rate cut now well in hand, the harder question will be how quickly it will cut rates. The chairman couldn’t answer that question directly, of course, but his response to a related question suggested that the pace of labor market cooling was central to the issue. JPMorgan forecasts the first rate cut in September, followed by quarterly cuts, possibly monthly if unemployment continues to worsen.
TVC:DXY
by TrategySherpa
XAUUSD : Gold continues to rise strongly againGold prices continued to expand their gains thanks to safe-haven demand amid concerns over escalating tensions following the assassination of a Hamas leader in Iran. The war in Gaza and the deepening conflict in Lebanon have left the entire region in turmoil. In particular, the rise of this precious metal was further boosted when US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that a rate cut could be discussed as early as September if inflation remains in line with expectations. As expected, the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting. However, Mr. Powell raised investors' hopes for a possible rate cut at the September meeting. He said that policymakers are increasingly confident that inflation is moving towards the 2% target.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SantaTradeGold
AUD/NZD Short, AUD/CAD Short, WTICO/USD Short and NZD/CAD ShortAUD/NZD Short Minimum entry requirements: • If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it. AUD/CAD Short Minimum entry requirements: • If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it. WTICO/USD Short Minimum entry requirements: • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. NZD/CAD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
Short
by StewySongs
Gold bounces back after breaking 2400 peakGold prices fell slightly in this morning's trading session, fluctuating around $2,405/ounce. World gold prices reversed after gaining more than $35/oz in the previous session. The Fed is expected to maintain the current interest rate after its policy meeting in the middle of this week. However, the market expects the Fed to start easing policy as early as September as recent data shows inflation is approaching the 2% target. Traders are also awaiting a series of US employment data scheduled for release this week, including the important non-farm payrolls report due on Friday.
TVC:GOLD
by NicoTradingMaster
AUD/USD Short, NZD/CAD Short, EUR/NZD Long and NZD/JPY ShortAUD/USD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of value. • If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. NZD/CAD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. EUR/NZD Long Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse up above area of interest. • If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. NZD/JPY Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
by StewySongs
XAU awaits Fed decision for fresh impetusGold (XAU/USD) struggled to stay above $2,400 and attracted some selling pressure during Monday’s trading session due to strong demand for the US dollar. Risk sentiment was also seen as a factor weighing on the safe-haven precious metal. However, geopolitical risks from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East provided some support for gold. Meanwhile, growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in September, reinforced by Friday’s US inflation report, limited the USD’s gains and helped limit the decline in gold. Moreover, traders opted to wait for the outcome of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting ending on Wednesday. Investors will continue to monitor the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision on Wednesday, the Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday and key US macro releases, including the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, this week. In addition, other economic data scheduled early in the new month will provide more information on the health of the global economy and determine the next direction for gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
XAU slightly down todayToday, the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), begins its first meeting of July and will end on Wednesday night - early Thursday (Hanoi time). The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will also meet tomorrow and the Bank of England (BOE) will meet and end on Thursday. According to Fed officials, inflation is on track, more positive when the core PCE index, excluding food and energy prices, fell to 2.6% in June 2024, much lower than the 4.3% in the same period last year. The job market is having a soft landing when the unemployment rate increased from 3.7% at the end of 2023, to 4.1% in June.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicoTradingMaster
XAUUSD : Gold is down but that is bullish momentumA drop below $2,380 could continue to attract buyers near the 50-day SMA, around $2,360-2,359. A break-down of the 50-day SMA would push the price towards the $2,350 support. The price could then continue to decline towards the 100-day SMA, around the $2,325-2,324 region. Further downside could see XAU/USD test the sub-$2,300 levels or the June 2024 low. On the contrary, the bulls are struggling to capitalize on the upside momentum above $2,400. Meanwhile, if XAU/USD breaks out of the $2,400 pivot, it could face some resistance around $2,412. Gold prices could then climb to the intermediate resistance level of $2,469-2,470 and challenge the record high, around $2,483-2,484.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SantaTradeGold
EUR/NZD Short and AUD/NZD LongEUR/NZD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Break above area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If 3 touch 5 min continuation or 2 touch 5 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. AUD/NZD Long Minimum entry requirements: • If area of value tapped into by way of a three touch structural approach, risk entry after a 15 min rejection from it.
by StewySongs
EUR/USD Short and EUR/GBP ShortEUR/USD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If 3 touch 5 min continuation or 2 touch 5 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. EUR/GBP Short Minimum entry requirements: • 1H impulse down below area of value. • If 3 touch 5 min continuation or 2 touch 5 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
Short
by StewySongs
1
EUR/USD Short and GBP/USD ShortEUR/USD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If 3 touch 5 min continuation or 2 touch 5 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it. GBP/USD Short Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If 3 touch 5 min continuation or 2 touch 5 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
Short
by StewySongs
Gold prices decreased rapidly due to the impact of many newsThe fluctuations after the discharge of the initial PMI document had been now no longer too significant. Besides, earlier than the outlet of the 5-yr US authorities bond auction, gold expenses accelerated barely as yields decreased. But quickly after, the 10-yr authorities bond yield accelerated 2 bps to 4,274%, placing strain on gold expenses. Although the USD weakened barely, the effect become insignificant. CME`s FedWatch device suggests a 100% chance of a 25 bps price reduce in September; even as marketplace forecasts display that the Fed may also reduce hobby quotes via way of means of a complete of fifty three bps in 2024. Not to mention, India's reduce in import taxes on valuable metals additionally boosts gold call for. However, those high quality elements are nevertheless now no longer sufficient to face up to promoting strain. US Q2 GDP and center PCE facts could be launched these days and tomorrow, it's miles anticipated that the gold marketplace will stay volatile. Looking longer term, BMO Global Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Sadiq Adatia stated that elements consist of continual issues approximately the threat of recession, call for from significant banks and developing hobby from National funding budget can push gold expenses to new document levels.
TVC:GOLD
by TrategySherpa
XAU the world plummeted without stoppingXAU the world plummeted without stopping Gold prices continued to fall without stopping, reaching a low of 2,370 USD/ounce at the beginning of the Asian session on Thursday morning. Thereby, world gold recorded a decrease of nearly 5% from the peak of 2,483 USD, or about 113 USD/ounce in just 7 trading sessions. Last night, the fluctuations after the release of the preliminary PMI report were not too significant. Besides, before the opening of the 5-year US government bond auction, gold prices increased slightly as yields decreased. But soon after, the 10-year government bond yield increased 2 bps to 4,274%, putting pressure on gold prices. Although the USD weakened slightly, the impact was insignificant. CME's FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September; while market forecasts suggest the Fed could cut interest rates by a total of 53 bps in 2024
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TrategySherpa
GOLD : Gold is turning around unexpectedlyGold prices ended the US session and started the new day quite calmly compared to previous developments, trading around 2,400 USD after peaking on July 24 at 2,432 USD. Last night, the fluctuations after the release of the preliminary PMI report were not too significant. Besides, before the opening of the 5-year US government bond auction, gold prices increased slightly as yields decreased. But soon after, the 10-year government bond yield increased 2 bps to 4,274%, putting pressure on gold prices. Although the USD weakened slightly, the impact was insignificant. CME's FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September; while market forecasts show that the Fed could cut interest rates by a total of 53 bps in 2024. On the economic front, the US trade balance improved more than expected, but the preliminary manufacturing PMI fell, indicating weakness. Specifically, S&P Global's July services and composite PMIs both exceeded expectations, reaching 56.0 and 55.0 respectively; while manufacturing PMI decreased from 51.6 to 49.5, lower than forecast. Investors are waiting for the release of Q2 GDP data and the core PCE index - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - to have more basis to evaluate the economic situation and guide monetary policy. Regarding forecast, Q2 GDP is expected to reach 1.9% over the same period last year, showing that the economy is accelerating. It is worth noting that inflation calculated on core PCE is expected to decrease from 2.6% to 2.5%.
TVC:GOLD
by SantaTradeGold