Trade idea - CHFJPY Long4H
Corrective approach towards entry zone.
-68 Fibonacci completion aligning with entry zone.
= Buy limit.
1.5% risk.
Aiming to take full profit at Daily TP.
Forextrading
USD/CHF Recovers Inside Demand Zone, Fed Rate Cuts LoomIn the early European session on Monday, USD/CHF was trading at 0.8429, with the price sitting inside a key demand area. The pair is showing signs of recovery after a two-day losing streak, but its upside potential could be capped due to increasing market expectations for further aggressive rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors will closely watch comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman later today for additional insights into the Fed’s next moves.
From a technical perspective, the USD/CHF pair remains in a demand zone, which could provide support for a possible bullish move. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders are still largely bearish on the pair, while institutional investors—often referred to as "smart money"—have switched to long positions over the past week. This shift suggests a potential bullish impulse may unfold in the short term.
On the fundamental side, the slowing Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation data for August has fueled expectations that the Fed will maintain a rapid pace of rate cuts as inflationary pressures ease closer to its 2% target. This dovish stance could weaken the US Dollar (USD) in the near future, making USD/CHF's upside limited. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a nearly 54% probability of a half-point rate cut in November, with a 46% chance of a smaller quarter-point reduction.
Given these factors, traders should remain cautious but open to the possibility of a short-term bullish move for USD/CHF. The combination of technical demand zone support and shifting smart money positions suggests the potential for a recovery, though macroeconomic events and rate cut expectations may temper this momentum.
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NFP signal Gold price sticks to modest gains near weekly top, bulls seem non-committed ahead of US NFP
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick and remains below the weekly top through the early part of the European session on Friday.
Gold now buy 2659
Support 2685
Gold Trade Idea 4th octobar 2024gold is running within our trade range .
if price moves below this support area than we will close our trade . stop below the area.
GBPUSD Potential up trend continuation after the correction and The GBPUSD is currently in a consolidation zone after reaching a resistance area. While the market remains in a bullish trend on the daily timeframe, indicating ongoing demand pushing prices higher, the recent break of the upward trendline suggests a temporary pause in bullish momentum. This break hints at a possible slowdown as the market consolidates, preparing for its next move. Given the current range, it's likely the market will remain within this zone for a while before resuming the bullish trend. The target is the resistance zone at 1.33960
EURUSD Channel breakout and further potential drop after a correEURUSD has sharply declined following news of escalating tensions in the Middle East, which triggered a surge in the DXY, pushing down other currency pairs. The market formed a double top at the resistance level and failed to close above it. Currently, it is heading toward the bottom of the range. Zooming out, you'll notice the price action has been oscillating between 1.10200 and 1.12000. A pullback may occur before the market continues its downward movement. The target is the support level at 1.10300
Gold stands firm amid Middle East conflict outbreakThe world gold price increased quite strongly after Iran's airstrike on Israel, but also cooled down, then increased rapidly again. The gold price on the international market is holding high, showing its "durability" amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, after Iran massively fired hundreds of missiles at Israel. Israel's Iron Dome air defense system is said to have failed to stop many missiles.
In the context of the chaotic world political situation, especially in the Middle East, calling Bitcoin (digital gold) a safe haven has caused disagreement among many precious metal supporters.
GBPUSDHello Traders!
What are your thoughts on GBPUSD ?
This currency pair has approached the resistance zone, in this range it is expected to enter correction after a little fluctuation and correct at least up to the specified level.
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XAUUSD H1 - Short SignalXAUUSD H1
We broke our area of resistance here on XAUUSD over the eastern session. We have now made a slight adjustment to our trading zone, $2,660/oz has now been moved to circa $2,670/oz. Which now incorporates the next level of resistance, and stops now cover the next areas of previous high price.
We have that whole number confluence, area of H1 and H4 supply, obviously areas of resistance... Lets see what this zone offers, but again, treading carefully around the data cluster we have later today.
GBPJPY: Bull Flag to start a great rally.GBPJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.480, MACD = 0.880, ADX = 34.811) as it's been basically consolidating since last Friday with the price ranging around the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200. This consolidation is being done while the 1D RSI shows a Bullish Divergence in a Channel Up. Last time this happened was in March 2023, a Bullish Flag that pushed the price later aggressively to the top of the 2 year Channel Up. We turn heavily bullish on GBPJPY (TP = 220.000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Gold fluctuates amid Fed newsInvestors are looking ahead to data on the ISM services sector index and initial jobless claims, both of which are scheduled for release along with US NFP data on Friday.
Data released on Wednesday showed NFP figures rose more than expected in September, suggesting the labor market remains strong.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points has decreased. The market is now pricing in a 37% chance of that happening, down from 49% last week.
Gold tends to gain in a climate of low interest rates and political uncertainty.
EURCAD Breakout and retestEURCAD recently broke and closed above a downward channel, forming an ABC move. This bullish breakout marks a notable shift in momentum after a prolonged downtrend. The price has now approached a key resistance area, where previous sell-offs occurred, indicating potential resistance at this level. Given this setup, a short-term pullback is expected as the market may retest the upper border of the broken channel before resuming its upward movement. With the major trend still bullish on the daily timeframe, this pullback could offer a continuation trade opportunity. The target is the resistance zone around 1.52000
EURUSD Further Up Trend potentialEURUSD has been in a bullish trend, and the recent impulse move down, followed by a pullback that took out liquidity below the 1.1100 support level, could signal the end of a correction. This behaviour is typical in bullish markets, where price pulls back to gather liquidity before resuming the upward trend. Given the overall bullish sentiment, there is a strong potential for a continuation of the trend.
With strong bullish momentum, the market may be set to break through last month's high. The target is the resistance zone around 1.12000
GBPAUD potential drop and continuation of the down trendGBPAUD has been respecting the upward trendline for over a month but now appears poised to break through, potentially triggering a significant sell-off. On the daily timeframe, the price action looks quite bearish. The formation of a consolidation zone just above the trendline suggests the market is preparing for a potential breakout. Consequently, the market could drop from this resistance zone toward lower levels. The target is the support level at 1.93080
Gold range higher read the caption Gold price is trading listlessly in a narrow range under the key $2,670 static resistance, lacking a clear directional impetus so far this Thursday. The focus now shifts toward a fresh batch of US economic statistics and speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers fresh directives amid the escalating geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran
Potential Slightly Bearish Bias today 03/10/2024 on EURUSD.EURUSD Overview: Slight Bearish Bias in Focus
As of 03/10/2024, EURUSD is facing potential downward pressure, with various key factors suggesting a slightly bearish bias for the trading session today. This article dives into the current market conditions and fundamental factors driving this bias, offering valuable insights for traders and investors alike. The analysis focuses on economic data releases, central bank policies, and geopolitical influences that could impact the EURUSD movement. Let’s explore the main factors at play.
Key Fundamental Drivers Behind the EURUSD Bearish Bias
1. US Dollar Strength Supported by Economic Data
The US dollar continues to gain support, driven by robust economic data from the United States. Yesterday's stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI for September reinforced the idea that the US economy is holding firm, even amidst rising interest rates. This economic strength is fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance, keeping interest rates elevated for a longer period, which bolsters the US dollar and applies downward pressure on the EURUSD pair.
2. European Economic Weakness
On the European side, the euro remains under pressure due to weaker-than-expected economic data across the Eurozone. The recent German unemployment figures showed an unexpected rise, highlighting the ongoing economic challenges in the region’s largest economy. Furthermore, inflation in the Eurozone has been cooling off, reducing the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise rates aggressively. The divergence between the economic performance of the Eurozone and the United States continues to weigh on the euro.
3. Central Bank Divergence: Fed vs. ECB
The divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is a key factor contributing to EURUSD's bearish outlook today. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone, indicating that interest rates will stay higher for longer, contrasts with the ECB’s recent softer stance, especially after comments suggesting a potential pause in future rate hikes due to slowing economic activity in the Eurozone. This policy divergence is likely to continue pushing EURUSD lower.
4. Geopolitical Concerns and Risk Sentiment
Geopolitical concerns in Europe, particularly ongoing uncertainty in Eastern Europe, also weigh on market sentiment, favoring safe-haven assets like the US dollar. Additionally, risk-off sentiment in global markets could exacerbate the downward movement in EURUSD today. Traders are closely watching any developments that could further impact risk appetite.
5. Technical Analysis Indicating Downward Momentum
From a technical perspective, EURUSD has been trading below key resistance levels in recent sessions. The 50-day moving average remains above the current price action, signaling continued downward momentum. Additionally, RSI (Relative Strength Index) is hovering around neutral levels but shows a slight inclination towards the bearish side. These technical factors support the slightly bearish bias for the day.
Conclusion
Based on the latest fundamental factors and current market conditions, EURUSD is expected to maintain a slightly bearish bias today. The strengthening US dollar, coupled with weak Eurozone economic performance and diverging central bank policies, creates a challenging environment for the euro. Traders should monitor key support levels, as a break below could signal further downside potential. As always, geopolitical risks and upcoming economic data releases could introduce volatility, so keeping an eye on market updates is essential for traders.
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By incorporating these key factors into your trading strategy, you can stay ahead of the market and make informed decisions on EURUSD.
USD/JPY Recovers from Below 140.00 Area During BoJThe USD/JPY pair has staged an impressive recovery, pushing toward the 143.00 level in the European morning session, following an initial dip below 140.00. This move comes in response to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, as widely expected. Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference reiterated the central bank's cautious approach toward tightening monetary conditions, which triggered a temporary pullback in the currency pair.
From a technical standpoint, this recovery aligns with our prior analysis that pointed to a potential reversal within a demand zone near the 140.00 level. This area has acted as a key support, fueling buying momentum and setting the stage for a continuation of the long position. The price action suggests that buyers are still keen to capitalize on dips in the pair, particularly as USD strength remains broadly supported by the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook.
Further supporting the bullish outlook is the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows that retail traders remain bearish on the USD/JPY pair. Typically, a contrarian view of retail positioning can indicate further upside potential, as institutional investors tend to take the opposite side of the trade. With retail sentiment still leaning toward the short side, it opens the door for continued upward movement in the pair, especially if market sentiment shifts further in favor of the U.S. dollar.
As we look ahead, the USD/JPY appears poised to target higher levels, with 143.00 acting as an immediate resistance. Should the bullish momentum persist, traders may set their sights on a potential breakout, paving the way for a sustained move higher. All eyes will remain on global central banks and key economic data releases in the coming weeks, as these will likely play a crucial role in shaping the next leg of the USD/JPY’s trajectory.
Previous Analysis
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Gold Price Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle Formation Signals $$##📈 Gold Price Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle Formation Signals Potential Breakout
Gold trades within a symmetrical triangle formation on the H1 timeframe, and traders are closely monitoring for a potential breakout. This technical pattern, known for its converging trendlines, often signals an impending price breakout, either upward or downward. Here's what to watch for:
🔺 What is a Symmetrical Triangle?
A symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern in which the price forms lower highs and higher lows , creating two converging trendlines 📊. The market's indecision builds tension, often leading to a significant breakout in either direction as the price consolidates.
🚀 Key Breakout Levels for Gold
As gold continues to move within this symmetrical triangle, there are two potential breakout scenarios:
📈 Upside Breakout Target – $2,693:
If gold breaks out above the upper trendline of the symmetrical triangle, we can expect bullish momentum to push the price toward the $2,693 level. This would indicate a continuation of the upward trend, attracting buyers and potentially setting the stage for further gains.
📉 Downside Breakout Target – $2,614:
On the other hand, a break below the lower trendline would signal a bearish move, with the next potential target around $2,614 . This downside breakout would indicate a reversal or pause in the recent bullish trend, likely driving selling pressure.
🔍 Factors to Watch
Several factors may influence gold’s price action and the potential breakout direction:
🌍 Geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty drive safe-haven gold demand, potentially pushing prices higher.
💵 US Dollar strength: A stronger dollar could weigh on gold, increasing the likelihood of a downside breakout.
📉 Interest rates and inflation expectations also play a role, as rising rates could limit gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
🛠 Trading Strategy
Traders should consider waiting for a clear breakout above or below the symmetrical triangle before entering a position. A decisive move beyond these key levels— $2,693 for an upside breakout or $2,614 for a downside breakout—could offer strong trading opportunities with defined risk levels.
💡 Conclusion
The symmetrical triangle formation on the H1 timeframe indicates that gold is on the verge of a significant move. Monitoring key breakout levels, market sentiment, and external factors like the dollar and interest rates will be crucial in navigating this potential opportunity. Whether gold breaks out to the upside or downside, traders should be prepared for a substantial price move towards $2,693 or $2,614.
🔔 Stay updated with the latest prices and market developments to capitalize on this technical pattern.
XAU ends up gaining ground for USDWorld gold prices stopped increasing and turned down as the USD strengthened and investors waited for US economic data for more signals about the upcoming interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
GBPUSD: Cycle peaked. Expect brutal bearish reversal.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.143, MACD = 0.08, ADX = 33.338) but still bullish on 1W (RSI = 64.701). After rising nonstop since April and basically not having a long term correction since October 2023, we expect this bullish cycle of GBPUSD to be coming to an end. The Sine Waves structure is further proof of that, as it is past its top where in June 2021 and April 2018 it peaked. We turn long term bearish on this pair, aiming for the S1 level (TP = 1.2100).
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Doge May Rise from Support Zone.When the DOGEUSD daily chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue above the support zone. As long as the crypto's 0.09385031 level is not broken down, it is evaluated that the price movements above the 0.10259554 level can exceed the 0.13174628 level and target the 0.16585265 level.
Will Bitcoin Continue Its Rise?When the BTCUSD 8-hour chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue above the support zone. As long as the crypto's 57803 level is not broken down, it is evaluated that the price movements above the 59171 level can exceed the 63223 level and target the 66250 level.
