EURCHF: Time to Fall! Bearish Continuation 🇪🇺🇨🇭
Hey traders,
As you remember we spotted a breakout of a major key weekly structure on EURCHF.
Finally we see the retest.
Analyzing the intraday time frames I spotted a falling parallel channel.
This morning the price formed a descending triangle formation on its resistance.
Now we see its neckline breakout.
I anticipate a bearish continuation within the channel.
Goals:
1.045
1.043
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Forexmarket
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!In last weeks KOG report we suggested we would like to see a test on that 1830 level one more time, we said we would expect the price to test both the levels on the weekly triangle which is nearly exactly what has happened. We hit the low of 1758 and that’s exactly where the price bounced from to start this aggressive bullish move that we’ve seen. We also said we had an Excalibur target at the 1812-17 level which we hit on Friday!
So what can we expect in the week ahead?
We’re going to start with the daily chart to show you the trend we’re still in also highlighting the range resistance and the range support. We would expect there to be some more bullish momentum in the sessions to come, however, we need to be cautious here. As you can see its likely we’re heading for the range resistance level, there will be a lot of break-even traders here as well as a lot of stop losses above this level. We have indications of a price move towards the following levels, 1829 and above that 1841. Based on this we would expect the price to find support in the early part of the week around the 1800-04 level with lower support at 1797-95.
If the price comes down to these levels before targeting the higher levels this could represent a good opportunity to long the market towards the higher levels. If the price goes up towards the higher levels before the hitting the support levels this would represent a good opportunity to short the market back towards the lower support levels.
Please note, this is dependent on the price staying below the 1850-55 level, breaking this level will lead the price to stretch the bullish move to the higher resistance levels of 1870-85.
Key levels:
Support:
1800-04
1797-95
1785
Resistance:
1825-27
1833-35
1840-45
1850-55
Below is the weekly chart illustrating the triangle the price is playing within.
GBPNZD: Still Bearish! Technical Outlook 🇬🇧🇳🇿
As I earlier predicted,
GBPNZD dropped sharply last week.
We saw a strong bearish rally to 1.9 level.
For now, the market is trading within a falling wedge pattern.
Its resistance serves as the point for sellers to short from.
I believe that the pair will keep falling within the boundaries of the wedge.
Closest supports:
1.90
1.892
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EURAUD: How to Catch a Pullback Safely?
EURAUD is trading in a strong bearish trend since the end of August.
This week a strong key support level was reached.
To catch a pullback from that, monitor 4H time frame.
For now, the price is stuck within a falling parallel channel.
Your first condition will be a bullish breakout of its resistance.
Moreover, the price is currently forming an inverted h&s pattern.
1.547 - 1.55 is its neckline.
Your second condition will be its bullish breakout.
To catch a pullback safely you will need two breakouts:
of a falling resistance and of a neckline.
Then on a retest you can buy the pair.
Goals will be 1.5595 / 1.5705
In case of a new lower low formation the setup will be invalid.
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Nas100 Long After a long bearish run nasdaq has reached a strong daily support and can potentially prepare for a trip to a new all time high
Improving US Pending Home Sales could mean Further Up for USDFundamental Info : The report of Pending Home Sales US has just been released and showed much of an improvement in the US property market sector which has been slowing down during the pandemic. This could set a further strength to USD.
Technical Analysis : EURUSD on 4H chart has just made a breakout on the strong level of support at 1.1670 which could indicate a futher south of the currency pair.
GBPNZD: Structure Trading With Confirmation 🇬🇧🇳🇿
GBPNZD is trading on a key daily structure support.
On 4H time frame the pair is ranging.
1.9425 - 1.945 is the resistance of the range
1.9335 - 1.9355 is the support of the range.
To buy wisely, I will look for a bullish breakout of the range's resistance. (4h candle close above the underlined area)
They open your trade aggressively or on a retest.
Goals will be 1.9545 / 1.9645
In case of a bearish breakout of the range, the setup will be invalid.
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AUDCHF: The Zone to Watch 🇦🇺🇨🇭
AUDCHF is approaching a daily supply area.
0.68 - 0.6815 is a potential reversal zone from where a bearish move may start.
Your confirmation will be a bearish breakout of a rising wedge pattern on 1H time frame.
While the price remains within its boundaries, though, the market remains bullish.
In case of a bullish breakout of a yellow zone, the setup will be invalid.
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EURUSD: How to Short With Confirmation? 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Update for EURUSD.
Standing on a strong daily horizontal resistance,
the price formed a head and shoulders pattern.
I am waiting for its neckline breakout (hourly candle close below) to short wisely.
Targets will be: 1.177 / 1.175
In case of a bullish breakout of a head level (new higher high), the setup will be invalid.
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EURNZD: Important Decision Ahead! Your Plan: 🇪🇺🇳🇿
EURNZD is trading within a key daily structure resistance cluster.
On that, the price is currently consolidating within a horizontal trading range.
1.715 - 1.716 is its resistance.
1.7045 - 1.7065 is its support.
For now, I see two equally possible scenarios:
Bearish
In case of a bearish violation of the support of the range,
bearish continuation will be expected.
Next support will be 1.69
Bullish
In case of a bullish breakout of the resistance of the range,
a trend following movement will be expected.
Next resistance will be 1.73
Wait for the breakout & follow the market.
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TRADING BASICS | What is a Pip? 📚
📏Pip is a measurement of the price change in a currency pair trading on the forex market. In most cases, pip is the equivalent to 1/100th of 1%.
That rule is applicable to all the currency pairs quoted to the 4th decimal place like EURUSD.
➡️Current EURUSD price is 1.1696
6 is the 4th decimal place representing a pip.
If the pair moves from 1.1696 to 1.1697, that 0.0001 USD rise in value is ONE PIP.
❌That rule is not applicable, for example, to USDJPY which is only quoted to 2 decimal places.
➡️Current USDJPY price is 109.62
2 is the 2nd decimal place representing a pip.
If the pair moves from 109.62 to 109.63, that 0.01 JPY rise in value is ONE PIP.
🦉The word pip stands for "price interest point" or "percentage in point".
Even though a pip might appear as an extremely small unit of measurement, in leverage trading even the one pip price change of the instrument may lead to a sufficient gain or loss.
➗How to calculate the value of a pip?
Each and every currency has its own relative value.
In the following example, I will show you how to calculate the value of a pip for a particular currency pair.
USD/CAD = 1.2753
Reading that as 1 USD to 1.2753 CAD or 1 USD / 1.2753 CAD
1 Pip =
* 1 USD = 0.00007841 per unit traded.
Following this example, if we trade 10.000 units of USD/CAD, then a one pip change to the exchange rate would be approximately 0.78 USD change in the position value.
Alternatively, pip value can be calculated with various calculators & apps.
I hope that with these examples and my explanation you will understand the concept of a pip easily.
Let me know what do you want to learn in the next posts!
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GBP/USD Weekly Analysis (3rd week of July,2021)Comments from Bank of England officials during the week, pointing to the need to reduce asset purchases earlier than expected, failed to lift the pound significantly. “The impact on GBP was limited, partly because the next step in the eventual policy normalisation process (rate hikes) remains still some way off. Despite the increasing Covid-19 cases, the UK government will deliver the final part of the reopening/end of restrictions on 19 July”, explain ING analysts. Next week UK data includes June retails sales and July PMI, both reports due on Friday.
Is the Forex Euro Selloff Over?Hey Traders so in my last post I had mentioned that the Euro could be topping well amazing as it is the charts were right!
Of course the FED also helped by saying they are going to raise interest rates in the future.
Does this mean the charts are the Holy Grail of trading?
Ha ha ha I don't think there is a Holy Grail in trading but lets go back in time today to see why this trade worked out the way it did.
I will definitely be shorting the Euro now on every pullback as I truly believe the tides have turned for the market. I think could be just the beginning of a new bear market.
Where does everyone think the Euro is headed?
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford