Will crude oil continue to rebound strongly? Long or short?In the crude oil market, due to the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and bullish expectations for Chinese demand, concerns that the Federal Reserve's more aggressive interest rate increases will slow economic growth and weaken oil consumption have limited the rebound in oil prices, so the crude oil market is still uncertain.
Judging from the trend, the current crude oil has rebounded strongly in the short term after fluctuating at a low level, but it is not enough to change the daily shorting situation, indicating that the overall trend of crude oil at a large level is still weak.Although the short-term rebound is shown on the 2-hour level chart, the short-term rebound is quite strong, but the pressure is heavy above, and the short-term continuity is a problem. It may continue slightly, but it is difficult to say how much room there is to continue without breaking the low range for the time being.Short-term may be accompanied by resistance loops, the market has returned to operate within the weak range.
In terms of strategy, yesterday's thinking was also high-level shorting, but today's thinking is still high-level, supplemented by low-level long-selling.
Crude oil is shorted near 77.8-78, and the first target is near 75.5
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Forexmarket
XAUUSD:How should we seize the opportunity to operateDue to the hawkish remarks of Fed Chairman Powell, it may mean that the Fed will not only raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the next two meetings, but may also raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the next three meetings, or even 50 basis points. It is also possible.Gold fell sharply and fell below the 1820 line, and is currently trading near the 1816 line.
Judging from the 4-hour level chart, the trend of the K-line has been continuously overcast and the trend is weak; however, it should be noted that the current price is close to the early support band, and the short-term deviation rate is also somewhat large, which may mean that gold's room for decline will not be too large; in the trend of the small-level cycle, the downward trend of gold has also begun to slow down, and there is a high probability that there will be a trend of adjustment and repair at the end of the market; therefore, you can consider looking for long-term opportunities near 1815.
Operation: It is recommended to pay attention to multi-order opportunities near 1815, stop loss at 1813, and look at 1825-1830 at the target point.
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Short GBPJPY position in the near term
There is a clear signal of a short-term top in GBPJPY, and there is a demand for a pullback. Short-term trading can be positioned for short positions.
Personal trading suggestion: Enter a short position at 163.550-164.000 with a target of 161.200.
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Will the NZDUSD be able to hit the 0.70 lvl this Year?This pair is one of my top focuses for this year and I almost let it slip by. After conducting my R/A this weekend I came to find out that the New Zealand economy might start over heating and the RBNZ is possibly going to be in a position to keep rising rates. The RBNZ is looking to raise rates to around 5.5% (at least that is what is projected). The data on New Zealand is:
Annual GDP: 6.4% and ranging
Unemployment: 3.4% and declining
Wage Growth: 4.3% and rising
Inflation Rate: 7.2% and rising
Industrial Production: 16.1% and rising
Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 and ranging
Retail Sales: -4% and declining
Housing Index: 186.2791 and declining
The technicals are also showing a double bottom and a descending wedge which adds to the probability that price might push higher.
Sentiment is also pushing more towards neutral for the USD as there are starting to be increased talks about the FED slowing down on interest rate hikes and being more dovish.
The Fundamentals, Technicals, and Sentiment are lining up which push my conviction lvl around the 60% lvl which got me to start planning on how to build a decent position on this pair. I have a position on this pair already at 10k (I am look to build to a standard lot for now).
This is what I am look at. If price stays above the 0.60 lvl, then it is highly likely that price will push higher. If price pushes below the 0.60 lvl by the end of March, then I don't think I am wrong, but I would think that I was too early. I would take my loss and retrograde for now and then come back in. My objective is to build a position up on the NZD before the 0.65 lvl (possibly around the 0.63 lvl, if lower, that would be ideal). If I am able to get into a full position before the 0.65 lvl, see price push higher to 0.68, and place a stop around the 0.65 lvl, I would be in a good spot to just hold onto the NZD and see if it pushes up higher.
If this doesn't work, like always, back to the drawing board to update my plan accordingly. But I think this is a high probability trade that will last for a while.
Like always, these are my thoughts and this is how I trade. Please come up with you own plans and ideas and ways to trade. This can be extremely risky and with the uncertainty in the markets, I could potentially blow up my account if I am not careful. Y'all have some great trading out there.
GBPAUD UPDATE
Potential shorts lining up for a NY session move, on the 15m TF we can see price is over extended to the upside sooner or later the institutions that drove the price up will take profits on there longs and this will create a retracement move. We can also Identify how the market is testing a psychological level of supply at 1.8000 in confluence with a 4H zone and High of previous week.
There are two Beautiful Asia session imbalance's to the downside with gaps to potentially fill giving us more confidence to expect the bearish move soon. For entry confirmations I am looking for price to take out the sell side liquidity above the current HOD and HOPW then will be monitoring on the 5m TF for potential short entry confirmations.
Remember this is an idea based on current PA if we dont get ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS we will not take the potential setup.
USOUL OUTLOOKThis week NFP release will be the center of attention for future interest rate release from the federal reserve.
With price currently within indecision, we might as well be expecting a breakout or a rejection from supply at 81.87 due to newly weekly mitigation at 73.70 which buyers have shown momentum in the last seven days.
If price fails to break 80.53- 81.87 range, I see selling opportunity back to major support at 77.43 where I will be anticipating for long if validated back to supply at 81.87
If 77.43 invalidates as support I see further decline towards 73.70- 73.18 range.
NZDUSD Bullish Continuation MM P 100pip// WHICH PATTERN ON MMP GUIDE DO WE HAVE?//
NZDUSD is currently showing a BULLISH CONTINUATION MM Pattern 5 in the MMP GUIDE.
// HOW TO ENTER //
Wait for NY to pullback close to the CP
RISK ENTRY ;- LONG on a good rejection from CP
CONFRIMED ENRTY;- LONG when we fix ABOVE BL (Baseline)
// INVALIDATION //
Use a 20-30pips STOP LOSS
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EURAUD Bearish Continuation MM Pattern// WHAT MM PATTERN DO WE HAVE // -
EURAUD is currently showing a BEARISH CONTINUATION PATTERN for Today's setup.
// HOW TO ENTER //
Wait for NY open and a stop hunt of the LN-Hi level and take a SHORT.
RISK ENTRY - Enter during NY when price is STOP HUNTING the LN-Hi level
CONFIRMED ENTRY - Price currently in a CONFIRMED ENTRY level (Below BL) wait for NY to ensure no sh leg.
// INVALIDATION //
Use a 20-30pips STOP LOSS
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Short eurusdHello everyone
I have shorted eurusd and added to my pos after the CPI data. I know the market is a bit in limbo and does not know what to do with the info because the report gave something for the bulls and bears but i think we are heading towards 1.05300 area. I have two trades that work here. This -> snipboard.io and another one taken all the way from the top that was opened on 2nd of February all the way from 1.010 area. See screenshot here ->https://snipboard.io/4oamvg.jpg .If you follow me these are the types of trades that we are taking. I am aiming for high quality trades that provide enough R's. If we are trending in one direction i usually add to my main pos and then cut making smaller profits.
Stay safe and trade accordingly because these are very volatile markets with big swings on each side.
Have a great day!
My current Plan for EUR/USD, GBP/CAD, EUR/HUFThis is my plan for the next few Quarters. My main focus is on the EUR/USD. If price is able to hit the 1.05 level, I will need to decide if I want to place a stop at 1.06 and ride price lower, or exit at 1.05 and move my focus over to the GBP/CAD and EUR/HUF. I might place a tighter stop and see if price is able to maintain the momentum lower on the EUR/USD. The GBP/CAD, I do want to get into a 50k position before price pushes lower. I think this pair is going to take a while to push lower, but it is only a matter of time. If I am able to get into a max position on the GBP/CAD and have a stop at 1.60, my conviction will be strong is holding onto the pair until the 1.50 level. The EUR/HUF, again, I like the positive rollover interest, so if price ranges, I am fine with price doing that. If price does push lower, I may add to my positions, but I am just thinking about it for now. The GBP/CAD has negative rollover, so the EUR/HUF and EUR/USD with there positive rollover is offsetting the negative rollover on the GBP/CAD. If I am correct on the GBP/CAD and EUR/HUF, Silver is becoming extremely enticing to get into next, especially if price pushes below the 20 level. I think Silver will be able to hit the $50 level, but that will likely happen in 2025 because space, robotics, AI, medical, electric vehicles, and so on will require a ton of Silver, which is a better conductor than copper.
GBPJPY are we seeing a new breakout? Hi, traders and TradingView community. The GBPJPY is on our radar today after a solid session from buyers yesterday.
Flash manufacturing and services PMI data came in better than expected and, combined with a mainly weaker yen, gave the GBP a nice boost. Buyers added 1.18% yesterday and broke above resistance, which has started to confirm a breakout of ascending triangle pattern. Breakouts from consolidation patterns can be seen as a good thing, as price has had plenty of time to build momentum.
The next thing we are looking for is further upside that can test or break the downtrend and resistance point (black box). If reached, we would also like to see the old resistance level become support for future seller tests.
164.20 could become resistance; much further above, 168.90 is also seen as possible resistance.
160.50 is seen as short-term support on the current upswing, and we would like to see 162 – 161.80 become support if tested.
If we see price move back into the previous consolidation pattern, this could be a worry. We would like to see new higher lows set up on or above the breakout point to continue to show that buyers hold momentum.
Good trading.
UJ made a retracement. I'm looking for Bullish movement!After Top- Down analysis i'm looking for UJ to move to the upside.
This is not trading advice or a signal!
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💁♂️EUR/USD 1H HI✌ As you can see, in the 1-hour time frame, the possible scenarios of EUR/USD are shown in the chart. In my opinion, in the long term, there is a possibility of further price correction to the range of 1.059/1.052.
❎ (DYOR)...⚠⚜
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