Bitcoin: BTCUSD Something for the Weekend Breakout ScenarioBitcoin: BTCUSD Update into the Weekend:Scenarios
The battle continues and finally the bears have made an impression on the upper parallel, pushing price down to 7800,
where pin bars from earlier show some demand (not shown on chart, but significant to the very near term now). There is no
winner yet, though. It can move sideways from here, meeting demand off the parallel and more still at 7717 freezer lid
level and down to 7660 at an absolute pinch, building a new rectangular range between 7717 and 7990-8000. It can move
sideways further, out of the pull of the parallels, large and small, but still be Ok so long as 7717-7660 holds - but it would
be a sign of strength if it could avoid all that, use the large parallel as support and then power higher, and back through
the neck line again - if and when it gathers enough buying power to manage that, this next time could well prove
successful in breaking the last bears that still stand strong at 7990-8000. So far, from their viewpoint, looking down the
mountain from 8000 with stops just above, there's nothing to scare them...yet. OK, that big bear raid first thing in London
didn't work out so well for them this time, but their stops still haven't pinged yet. When that happens and 8000 is broken by
20 points it becomes another breakout/momentum play. It will maybe need China to open to create enough
volume...they like breakouts - but we need to see one now to add to long positions from here...should it come (but think it
will at some point this weekend even if they try to sell it off in China first thing Saturday) it could well be explosive in
nature. Doesn't have to be but could well be. And once 8000 is actually broken the upside is, by nature of the beast,
incalculable. Anyone who says they have a value for Bitcoin is not to be trusted any more than asking your dog how much it's
worth. No one has ANY clue. It could be 15000, it could be 30000, it could be 5000 and it could be 5 one day. No one
knows. You KNOW that though. And it's enough to make money - big money - either way. You don't even have to
believe in Bitcoin per se, just believe what the chart is telling you, and no one else.
And so to the poential for downside this weekend coming: the big parallel remains the first line of support, and then
7717-7660 (stops for remaining longs from 7570 tight under 7660). So if 7717 fails and then 7060 also then fails we have a
near term problem emerging and Bitcoin should fall away to 7531 again and the rectangular range suddenly expands from
8000 at top to 7531 at bottomwith 7717 as the dividing line between the three...fantastic for day traders, trading
between these lines. This could take a large part of Saturday to play out if we see it..again great for day traders, a nice
wide range to play within, potentially developing this weekend as a consequence of this type of price action, if 7717
gives way, as above. But, the bull case is strong whilst above 7717 and still just fine at 7531. But if this fails at any point
this weekend, the bears are getting control again. It's a buy on any retest of 7531 with stop just under 7500 for rally to
7719. Then close if a day trader and only go long again from 7730 to 7980 with a stop under 7700, trading between the
three blue lines.
Long Story short:
Turn aggressively bullish again on a break above 8000 by 20 points, that can be sustained (very careful here as it could
explode upwards, and potentially downwards too, so stops need using and the risk of being hit quite high so they need to
be some way away from 8000 if longs are triggered, at least 100) This is still tough work but the bulls won't quit... That
parallel above, just holding it back now...if it breaks above it soon, then the break out could well follow soon after. Good
for swing traders. Otherwise we'll be heading for a Saturday made for day-traders, as above.
And turn aggressively bearish again only a break below 7531 looking to short rallies back u
