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Bitcoin: BTCUSD Trade Points Thursday Bitcoin Coinbase Update A wild night of opportunities has unfolded. Once Bitcoin broke the little channel it was left tracking at around 01:00gmt/20:00est it came back to testthe underside of the same minor parallel at 6800 before falling away ...right back down tothe bigger parallel which was forecast to halt all declines yesterday. It did exactly that in a technically perfect display of parallel power all day long. And then, once it breaks free of the parallels holding it down at the lows it powers back up (long triggered here, ideally) and then moves between the blue lines of fixed resistance as it pushes higher. It's now touched the 6900 next long trigger and should consolidate here back to 6850 and to the dynamic underpinning today's rally - has to break that dynamic to trigger a short from here with stops above the dynamic. And on upside it now has to break above 6910 and hold up at 6900 on retest to trigger next long with stop 50 or so lower.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
16
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Key Levels and Breaks for Sunday Trades Bitcoin Bitfinex Feed Sunday Update The first short yesterday from 7049 was stopped out at 7061 for a 12 point loss. Bitcoin went on to make a high after that at 7071 - a poor stop by 12 points. This is my bad here, not the chart's - just a poorly judged spot for the stop. Sorry for that one. Anyway the second time it broke 7050 gave another chance to short and this time when it next counter-rallied the high was 7038 and the short stayed good if you took it on the second time around. The low today is 6615 on Bitfinex. Last gasp support today lies in an 80 point range from 6615 down to 6535. Bitcoin should try a rally attempt from here so look to close out shorts in this range. The next short from here triggers once 6600 is broken, aiming for another test of 6000 with stops 50 or more higher once broken. On upside some day traders will reverse long down at these levels for a test of the falling dynamic at around 6850 but it's quite a risky trade and until that same litttle dynamic is broken to the upside Bitcoin will remain vulnerable. The rally we are seeing now should stop there and day traders will likely close out longs there at around 6863. Bitcoin will have to break above this dynamic for the rally to be worth following higher to 7221 with stops under the dynamic when broken above. But any potential swing longs will have to wait for 7221 to be broken above to follow long with stops 50 or more lower. Until we see that happen Bitcoin remains under pressure but cannot be shorted again from here until 6600 breaks.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
12
BTCUSD: Bitcoin The First Real Bullish Sign for DaysToday's price action has effectively created another double bottom over a 40 hour period - showing that loss of downward momentum bulls and HODLers have been hoping for. It's the first bullish signal we've seen for days. So we can look to add or follow the next break higher when it comes. Right now Bitcoin is making a small continuation pattern but so far holding up off the nearest support line at 9150. It can be bought or added to once the upper small parallel is broken on upside with stops under the same line. In very near term it can spend some more time consolidating and if 9150 gives way should come back to 9012-9000 - so stops on any longs can be raised to just under 9150 looking to buy back at 9012 if struck.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
12
BTCUSD Bitcoin Key Levels for Wednesday TradesBitcoin Wednesday Update Key Levels Today Altough we made over 500 points on the downside yesterday and 200 or so on the upside the last long from from 10755 went wrong and we were stopped out for around a 50 point loss. Sorry for that one. Bitcoin has since fallen away and back down the same parallels after making lows at 10400 on Bitfinex in Europe. A little morning buying interest has pushed Bitcoin back up to retest the upper parallel and it is trying hard to break above it now. But it's still too early to think about a long from here. Need to see it break higher still and reclaim 10625 on Bitfinex to trigger a long now, looking to buy the next dip once 10625 is beaten with stops 125 or so lower. Until then, no long trade looks feasible right now. And on the downside Bitcoin is still stuggling and vulnerable whilst trapped within the parallels of the impulse wave. A break below 10400 here by much more than 10 points will tip it back into bear hands and force it lower still, down through the blue support lines as low as 9285. A potential long trade set-up and also a big short if triggered too. The chart will decide the next move and trade for us from here. We can follow.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
14
Nasdaq 100 Index Potential Trade Points for Week AheadNasdaq 100 Index NAS100 The gyrations of February have created some interesting patterns on Nasdaq. After rallying to double top around 7000 it has subsequently fallen away to create a continuation pattern under the high, finishing the week by closing at the upper parallel of what may be a bull flag in formation. For that to remain the case Nasdaq has to push on higher from here, up through the uppermost small parallel of the potential flag. And that same parallel has to hold up on the next retest from above if and when it is broken above. If it can manage this then the pattern changes from negative/vulnerable to positive. If we see it happen we can follow long again. But until we see this price action materialise this index is still vulnerable and whilst unable to burst higher from here is therefore liable to fall away again on lack of buyers. If so the next question/clue will be: can make a higher low at around the 6694 line ? - that would be first bull signal - and the second would be breaking back above the upper parallel and holding on retest (above) - if so, it can be followed long. Worth watching in the opening 30 minutes or so of whipsaw as the market opens - we may see a chance of a long emerging as the dust clears a little 30 to 60 minutes in. If so it should re-visit the highs again at 7000-7035. A move above 7045 would in turn be another very bullish signal, suggesting further medium term strength up to 7660 and nearer term strength to 7246. However, until Nasdaq can make this break higher it's still vulnerable to a potentally large sell off again. Near term support at 6775, then 6994-6687 and last gasp for the bulls from here at 6614. It must hold up here during the course of this new week if it is avoid a further and potentially steeper decline back to 6371, presenting a good short if we see it develop at any point over the next day or two.
FX:NAS100
by sumastardon
Bitcoin BTCUSD Next Buy Points for MondayBitcoin Monday Update Next Buy Points on Monday Those that ran a trailing stop 50 or so points under the little dynamic supporting the lows of the day yesterday will have been stopped out around 11500 for 400 or so points profit. 4% returns on a slow Sunday is not bad but it was a hard grind battling against the bots. Bitcoin has encountered upside problems all night long, unable to push above the rising parallel which it lost yesterday morning and has struggled beneath it ever since. It topped out at around 04 est /23est and has since started to form yet another small continuation pattern below the same old parallel. Once again Bitcoin is trying to form yet another a bull flag now. To stay good from here it has to hold up off the lower little parallel of the flag formation and start to rally from here again - this is a speccy buy off the lower parallel with stops under the same parallel for a small loss if wrong. Otherwise we wait for the upper parallel to be broken on the upside to follow long again or add. We know this process can be mercifully quick if the flag is to stay good from here - and if not and no buyers appear soon to take the price back up it can drag on for hours more yet and start forming a longer-lasting continuation pattern as yesterday. And as yesterday, and most days recently, we need to stay patient, but ready to act when the signal we are waiting for is given to do so. Downside is being constrained by the lower parallel of the embryonic flag formation - Bitcoin would have to break below this line to turn negative again from here - so cannot be shorted unless we see this parallel fail from here.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
24
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Key Lines and Levels for Sunday TradesBitcoin Sunday Update Key Lines and Levels Today Overnight Bitcoin has made a minor double top at 11530-11500 with a rejection spike into the secondary high showing loss of upside momentum and the first sign that this rally is showing of running out of steam here. In the process it has lost the support of the lower big rising parallel and is now making a continuation pattern within a smaller set of declining parallels which are guiding the current descent. We were using the lower rising parallel as the final trigger to close down longs and so should have been busted out around 11230-11190 range for a smallish 280 or point profit on a trade which went wrong on us overnight. Not great. But we've still bagged 1424 points of profit here over this last week so it's not all bad news. But it was disappointing that the next target at 11790 was never met overnight all the same as we were looking to short from there when touched. Too bad. We begin again... Bitcoin is currently trapped between the declining parallels of the continuation pattern but we cannot consider buying again unless and until the upper parallel is broken above at which point we can enter long once more with stops 50 or so below the break point/upper parallel. Day traders will play the parallels in the interim, looking to buy off the lower parallel and sell again off the upper. But there is resistance at the 11192 line and it must break above here for day traders to stay long now for another 200 points back to 11300-11310 and the junction where the parallels intersect- For the rest of us looking for the next swing trade, we have to wait to get long until that upper falling parallel has been broken above and has been retaken by the bulls and held. Then we can follow. Until we see this price action develop we wait and watch. We may get an opportunity to get long from much lower down yet...but the break of the lower rising parallel is not helpful to the bull case and some day traders are shorting from the 11192 line with stops above in the belief that upside momentum is spent, so we have an eachway push and pull which day traders are playing, though not with much conviction either way so far. The rest of the market is watching and waiting for the next clear signal to enter. More as the move develops through the day - for fastest updates please see top left of main page
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
18
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Need for Caution HereBitcoin BTCUSD Wednesday Update Bitcoin is beginning to make a habit of topping out between 21:00 and 01:00 and bottoming between 05:00 and 09:00 the next day (gmt). Last night we were still running a long and looking for 11906 on Bitfinex and 11867 on Bitstamp when Bitcoin topped out very unexectedly 11780 at 22:20 - doing so from no discernible level of resistance, right out of the blue. This is so unlike the Bitcoin we know and trade. But it did it anyway. Bitcoin was positive up to the point that it broke the rising uppermost dynamic that had been supporting the rally all day yesterday and stops and exits were running up under this line which was lying at the 11651 support line at the time of the break - and pretty much at excactly the same levels that we went long again from. Not good. But could have been a lot worse without using stops. Since then Bitcoin has fallen away overnight to make a low at 04:15 and then a secondary higher low at 05.30 at 10709 before rallying higher again. Day traders are risking longs off the nearest 10857 support line but if so use a tight stop at under 10800 for small loss if it falls away from here further. There is so much resistance now lying between here and the 11257 line on Bitfinex making it difficult to open up a long swing trade from current levels. It really has to move up above 11270 and hold for swings to enter long again from here with stops below 11180 if triggered later. Returning to the downside: overnight Bitcoin has lost the supporting dynamics which now lie above it and are stopping any rally from gaining any real traction now. In very near term Bitcoin is being held up a small dynamic rising under the lows of the day - failure to hold this dynamic from here will tip Bitcoin back into the hands of the bears in nearer term and likely back to 10680 to begin with and then on a break below here the picture will turn more bearsih again and take Bitcoin down to 10296 if not 8925 in the process. Usually we trade Bitcoin every day because the patterns are clear enough for us to do so. But this is not one of those days as yet except for day traders. Last night was a warning that came out of the blue - so far we cannot really trust this rally as we did others in the run up. Want to see it make a higher intermediate low when the next decline begins before being able to determine just how trustworthy this counter-rally really is. So boringly neutral right now unless day trading. Sometimes patience is a virtue. Better safe than sorry. Today, so far at least, is one of those days. We watch and wait for now. More as the move develops...
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
5
Bitcoin: BTCUSD A Decisive Night Lies AheadBitcoin BTCUSD Decisive Night Ahead Bitcoin is now approaching the last major dynamic resistance potential between here and the highs on both Bitfinex and Coinbase charts - though not on Bitstamp. We've seen it just under double so far, gaining 5250 points on Bitfinex from the 6000 low. It can go one of two ways from here: 20:13gmt/15:13est Update and Bull Set-Up First off, was really looking to stay long up to the next line of fixed resistance at 11438 on Bitfinex today but so far the first line at 11257 has proved too much with an intra day high at 11250 so the long from 10840 today got closed out for 400 or so points profit on the first test of the line. Since then there has been a 200 point gain on another quick long from 10900 to 11100 - around 600 points or so. Now it's getting trickier again. The hourly candle shows pretty much a spinning top with pin above as long as it is deep below...indecision, sideways movement likely now...can move sideways to the big dynamic and then comes the crunch. It's Bitcoin, boys. It can always go either way. So we need to cover both the 2 alternatives...The Bull Break: Bitcoin finds buyers enough out of far East or when it opens (or even earlier) to push above the big dynamic and to hold and not fizzzle out by 2am gmt/21:00est - that would be a super-bullish outcome and if it comes at any point tonight must be followed with stops below the dynamic when first broken line by 100 points or so or alternatively, depending on price action, can wait for retest from above once broken ... This break to the upside is a big ask - may well prove too much on this first attempt. But it's Bitcoin. It's done stranger things before - it really can go either way from here. The Second alternative from here: The Bear Break: We need to keep in mind what could still develop from here - which is that Coinbase is leading and saying the rally is done ....and now this last few hours is just unspent upward momentum now running out of steam...if so, the chart will tell us by Bitcoin not being able to push higher above that last big line of last dynamic resistance on Coinbase - so this thing needs watching more carefully than ever for the next few hours...fairly obviously it needs more buyers now if, as we did in the chat room, you bought the dip back to 10900ish - the worry it that it grinds higher slowly and with no real power behind it as we move towards the far east opening...and then tops out ...we just need to be very vigilant tonight - and if it does recoil from the dynamic holding back price on Coinbase and then it goes on to break the last dynamic support line on Bitfinex just around 10600 now ...that would be the signal for swing traders to exit too and also for day traders to start opening short positions on the next rally back towards the now broken trend line. It should fall away to 9500 and then if this fails to 8900 - and has the potential to break much lower still...depends on the shape of the decline - this is the 'bad ' side of the Bitcoin coin, potentially. May never happen but forewarned is forearmed. Time as always will tell us the answer. We follow. To do that we have to see the upper dynamic broken to move back to full-on bull mode from here. Until then we need to tread carefully if still long here. Try not to second guess it too much but be ready to follow the next big signal coldly either way when it comes.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
6
Netflix: NFLX Potential Short then long set-upNETFLIX NFLX Buy Neflix and Chill - but where? Volatility returning to the market is throwing up some interesting short term trading opportunites, with Netflix being a prime example... The nearest support lies at 261. If this fails today it should open up a shorting opportunity back to 228-245 range. The 245 level is important, being the start of the gap...should tghis level then fail today it opens a second short back to 228-227 where it should rally from so can consider reversing the short here with stops below 226. And if wrong here, and there is no rally and 226 then fails it opens yet another shorting opportunity back to 204-203 where it will definitely bounce away again looking for a retest of the highs again.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by sumastardon
GBPUSD Two Short set-ups for GBPGBPUSD Sterling pinged off the next blue line at 1.4317 and leaving pins on the daily chart - like a crypto in super-slow-mo - this is moving at one frame per second compared to crypto-world rate of speed at 240 frames per second - same fractal/ratio. Although GBP is sitting back on the nearest support it doesn't look likely to create much of a rally, just a bit of bear closing. Eventually 1.3832 should give way and it will fall to 1.3633, a 200 pip short when triggered. It may fall further still, to 1.3480. Two potential short trades here, trades, one for 200 pips and second for 150
Short
by sumastardon
DXY: Dollar Index trade set-ups todayDXY: Dollar Index - A Big day ahead for the Dollar Near term Key to Gold, WTI, Brent and Pairs The dollar is stooging around now having fought itself to near stand-still - it's likely to start moving in a tight 50 pip range at 89.30 above and 88.79 below - will whipsaw most likely later today...can play the whip if super slick (not me!) or can stand back and wait for the dust to settle.The key levels are shown on the chart...can dip to the blue support line below it at 88.79 today but must break it to retest the low...which must hold or we have a major near term selling climax likely down to 87.70 ish dynamic support (buy there if you see things stop sliding here) And on upside it has to clear and hold above the recent highs by more than 5 pips - so at 89.66 - and we should know then that the dollar is turning positive again - it should be safe to follow with stops a little below 89.28 when the trade gets triggered (stops are better judged by the individual though, depending on risk profile) Once the dust settles gold and pairs and oils can also be traded with more confidence too.
TVC:DXY
by sumastardon
UK100: FTSE100: Short and longer term Forecasts for 2108 FTSE 100 Index UK100 Short and Longer term Forecast for 2018 Fantastic straight-line break-out finally achieved by FTSE 100. Bull markets climb walls of fear. That wall is Brexit. FTSE keeps climbing and pays the nay-sayers no heed. They are the most slow-witted fools remaining. But never forget, the market needs mugs. The 80% losers pay for the 20% winners' dinners, most days. That's just the way the numbers fall. The breakout has been one long green candle - but it's only got a little more upside to 7818 and/or to test the upper parallel that contains the rally come Tuesday opening. Look to close out longs into the final move upwards - and if the high at 7704 is not broken above early on - or price flips back to the lower parallel at arounnd 7634 and then goes on to double top at 7704, then again, look to close at least half long positions if you see price stick at 7704 or just under on this kind of price action. FTSE should then fall back to 7635 at least, and ideally back to the the big break-out levels at 7597-7580 at absolute lowest before it rallies hard once more, likely by this stage to move up through 7703 and 7818 to the next important resistance potential at 8348 over the more medium term (first 6 to 8 weeks of new year, roughly) Longer term views on both FTSE and SandP remain unchanged: Both indexes continue to climb their own different walls of fear (Brexit and Trump). Both love the outcomes. Paradigm shifts. Complete game-changers, both events. After 14 to 16 years of sideways to down markets we have begun the greatest secular bull run that many younger investors will have ever experienced. Both markets are expected to rise at least 4 times and potentially 6 times from start 2016 prices over the coming 14 years or so. Stay long if a long time holder and pay this forecast no heed whatsoever. This is for day traders or for those wishing to get long here ready for an excellent 2018 in store - for this market in particular. Super Long Term SandP secular analysis:
FX:UK100Long
by sumastardon