Bitcoin - Weekly update for Sunday June 16th 2019Hello my fellow Bitcoinistas!
We still have a several hours left in this week but I'm going to go ahead and post my weekly update for Bitcoin. For those of you following my work you are already very familiar with this chart. You know when we hit bottom. You know when we broke out of the large cup and handle. And you know when the 20/40 weekly MA crossed. You also know that in last week's update I was calling for a green candle this week that would entirely engulf the red candle of last week. Well, I'm going to go ahead and say that's how this week is going to end. Unless they can crash the price in the next 7 hours or so this week is going to finish green and engulf last week's candle as predicted. What does this mean? I think it means you need to put on your space suit and your helmet, hook up your oxygen, and get ready for the launch sequence.
Let's start the pre-flight check-list now:
1. Bitcoin broke above the multi-week trend-line - Check!
2. Bitcoin came back to the trend-line for a touch-back - Check!
3. The touch-back printed a red weekly candle - Check!
4. The red weekly candle was engulfed by a green weekly candle - Check!
5. The 20/40 weekly moving averages have crossed - Check!
6. The gap between the 20/40 weekly moving averages continues to widen - Check!
7. I saw another segment on TV this morning about Bitcoin - Check!
8. The Bears are shorting their butts off trying to stop this launch - Check!
Ladies and Gentlemen our fuel is 110% and we are ready for take off. Please throttle up main engines and initiate the count down.
I'll see you on the other side of the moon.
BBS out!
In 10, 9, 8, 7,...........................................
For clarity - If you are day trading this does not mean we are running North and never looking back. We could retrace at any time. I'm just saying that "In General" we are fueled up and ready to see new highs in the weeks and months to come. Since I am already long all I am doing right now it sitting back and watching the show.
Fomo
Bitcoin - From FOMO to ROMO in 2019Good morning my fellow Bitcoinistas!
As a write this post there is a special on Good Morning America talking about Bitcoin, Facebook, etc. etc. etc. The Winklefloss twins are on there saying that at one point they were trying to buy up to 1% of all Bitcoin etc. etc. etc. Their "Ah ha" moment with Bitcoin and why they started Gemni etc.
This ties in perfectly to the title of my post. "From FOMO to ROMO in 2019"
What do I mean? We all know that FOMO means the "Fear Of Missing Out" but my new phrase ROMO mean the "Reality Of Missing Out"
There is a BIG difference in my mind. Fears can be, and in many cases are, unfounded or unreasonable, but Reality is Reality. As Bitcoin continues to gain global conciseness and more and more big players keep buying in, the "Reality" for others is that "we don't have any" or "we don't have nearly enough" or "this is a lot harder to get my hands on than I thought" etc. etc. etc. I truly believe we are at the starting point of ROMO. It may start small but at some point it will accelerate quickly. I'm not talking about traders and people that have been flipping Bitcoin for years, I'm talking about people, businesses, and other institutions. Their ROMO point will come when they have the epiphany that this crypto thing is here, it's real, and it's going to change the world as we know it. At that point it won't be an unreasonable fear like FOMO, it will be ROMO! It will be the new reality for many. They will be playing catch up and competing with everybody else who is also playing catch up in the crypto world.
At any rate, that is my vision for what I see coming soon. Especially when Bitcoin starts hitting new highs like $20K plus. Then ROMO will set in for anybody who starts paying attention to what is going on around them and especially for those people in the world where their local fiat is failing or has already failed.
I am perma-long with only a small amount of Satoshi left on the exchange to play with. I know my approach and goals with Bitcoin may be much different than that of many here. Some people are still trading for or against FOMO and that's fine. I hope they all can put as much Bitcoin in their pile as they can before TSHTF. But for me, I have already faced and addressed my ROMO moment by securing my seat at the crypto table today and into the future. That is and was my objective with the exchange and it is now complete. Anything I do on the Exchange with Bitcoin now is just me farting around for fun with no serious consequences attached.
In other words you can take this post and any future posts with a grain of salt. Whether my charts, my future pattern calls, etc. work or fail I have little to nothing riding on them. Keep that in mind if you chose to compare any of my work to whatever you might be doing.
As a side note, I will make this recommendation to anybody new to trading Bitcoin or any other digital asset. Only keep on the exchange the amount of your total position you actually want to trade. In other words do not use these exchanges as your piggy bank. Get a hardware wallet and keep the majority of your funds under your control. Only put out there what you are willing to lose should another Mt. Gox type event happen to an exchange. Don't risk everything you have by storing it all with somebody else.
And that is my 2 Satoshi on the matter. Good luck out there!
BBS Out!
Beyond meat short sellers are going to have to learn to codeShorting was already super expensive. But now, now that the company had their first quaterly earnings release since IPO, the thing is taking off.
Sales rose 215% and are expected to grow tremendously in the future. Now I do not know how it works, but the company is not profitable.
Earnings are something like -1$ per share or so. A growth stock. If they sell way more then they will be profitable?
Maybe they have some flat costs that kill their revenue now but they wo'nt have these costs later on?
I am just interested in following this story and added this stock to my watchlist.
Going to explode.
I hope short sellers had options hedging them or something :D
Maybe we see an absolute explosion in share price followed by a short squeeze and an absolute explosion. Again.
BUT I think with the shorting prices being so high and the shares being almost entirely held by insiders and retail investors (that do not lend shares for shorting because they are noobs & morons), there are very few bears in this market.
Also... if most longs are full noobs/imbeciles... Looks like potentially a massive bubble ahead.
With painfully obvious phases. And just keeps going up. And bounces on the way down "this was the bottom" and obvious stop loss levels.
Looks like something we could call inefficient.
Dumb money that make decisions out of greed and "beating wall street" and "showing to the man" (whatever that means).
Downside should be limited if most people involved are retail baggies? Right? I am not an expert on this tbh.
Should be a super easy one, easy edge just get in and be the first to get out once it stops going up, retail baggies won't be running for the exits, np.
Another point for education purpose, best not to short sell hype stocks dominated by retail until there is a big complacency? Seems to make sense...
This feels like looking at penny stock trading which is literally taking advantage of moron baggies that FOMO and not having the pros competition (since stocks are too small for the pros).
When I look at noob stocks, I never see them gap down 20% like Facebook did a while ago. They do gap up, alot. But I never saw one gap down.
But as I said I am not experimented with this.
What they do though, is they consolidate for a really long time. Looking at Robinhood top hold here:
Actually Bitcoin is the same. 0 institutional interest, they all think it is a ponzi scheme, full inexperienced retail and just bagH0DL all the time.
Super boring, but once in a while it gets to a support and every time "this was the bottom". Once could make a strategy hunting stocks that are mainly
held by unsophisticated retail investors and buying at supports before big rallies, or even simply FOMO buying... (the edge and the difference being of course the experience trader knows when to get out).
I saw somewhere that Activision was a retail favorite.
Idk this could be interesting... to be more diversified in the future.
I probably just stick to currencies commodities and trade bigger and bigger eventually just use options to protect myself.
And stocks just for investing in solid both growth & value companies.
Like a one trick pony. 2 trick pony. Focussing on what I am good at, huge markets I don't need more.
Modern portfolio theory sucks. I rather find rare perls and make big one sided bets.
Where do we stop? (ETC Correction)Well if you are a lot like me, you thought the correction was going to be swift and brutal, yet as it turns out we may have already hit the lows and the Bull Rally, fake or otherwise, may very well still be in effect! Just look at how even with extremely low volumes we are still trading in an increasing pattern with dips that lead right into 10% gains! Therefor we have to take into account that although we are absolutely still in a correction, and will be for likely another week, we might not see another 30% leg down, we might only see the local lows that were achieved early last week!
This is why I have to price targets, the purple and yellow lines. The purple has us "triple bottom" or Double Bottom the lowest low so far ($7.35), the Orange has us correcting to the previous low ($6.7). I believe both are realistic expectations, but the likelihood is up in the air. Whales could come in tonight or tomorrow and absolutely assault the market with massive dumps and incredible volume, or low volume trading can have us ticking ever so slightly higher with higher lows and higher highs. Personally, I think the 7.35 range is the most likely to occur otherwise the 6.7 would have came within bow shot already. However, as I said, anything is possible in Crypto!
What do you guys think?
Stratis Bull run General idea of what the next bull run would look like.
Will provide more TA and info in later posts If interested.
Heres the TLDR: Price should play within the diamonds and should follow the price line or rise at a more parabolic rate.
Entering this anywhere around the $1 mark should get some gains.
I will be entering this trade soon, Putting buy line now although a slight retracement is expected soon. but if I'm right the diff won't matter :)
BINANCE:STRATUSD
Ascending or Symmetrical Triangle.. BITCOIN, ROUTE TO ATH???I've posted yesterday an idea of BTC about the Ascending Triangle in forming for Bitcoin lines in gold. (link below)
An alternative route is the Symmetrical Triangle (black lines) . With an 50/50 outcome. Targets in the chart.
So if we may wish we prefer The Ascending one because the 70/30 rate.
If the price will break 8000 seriously media will pick it up again and will create a fomo. Maybe it will create the route to all time high.
Good luck trading
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--Hit follow button for more ideas
Ascending Channel: Use it or Lose itMassive support on the ascending channel.
We are wanting to break the top of our current Pennant resistance and if we do I think we will see strong volume and a push to $8,600/$9000 before a correction.
Possible that we lose the support of the ascending channel and drop below to the $7,500 - $6,500 region for a nice correction/accumulation period.
I think we will know if we are going to correct within the next 10 hours depending on how the yellow support holds up should we test it..
If we don't break out to the upside in the next two hours I think we will find support around the $7800 region before having one last shot.
If that fails it's times to take profits and watch the weak hands tremble as we fall off the cliff that is our bottom support of the ascending channel.
Either way it's count down to D-Day.
Ready to find support? Remember what FOMO can do. I feel like we are at the end of what this run has to offer until we correct and find some support.
We are setting up for a head and shoulders reversal on the smaller time frames.
If the market is this bullish then I think it would be more bullish to see it find support on the 100ma around $6400 before we get a monthly/weekly close above $7400. Then again we could be at 8k tomorrow.
I still see our last high being that $7,300 point on the 4th of September and our next high being this current one. The weekly close tomorrow is important but not as important as the monthly will be.
This tether/bitfinex/binance news is just too much of a coincidence for me.
If all of that resistance is broken that easily, then the support it holds can be broken that easily too.
The weakest hands are of those who fomo'd in.
F&G index: Extreme Greed
NVT is screaming to dump.
Who knows! Hope yall being safe with yo trades.
Oh boy this doesn't look good! FOMO Danger Zone.Hello Fellow Traders,
Although we have a significant diversion in all time intervals we keep going higher and higher. We are in a overbought zone in RSI also I lost track of counting elliot waves. There had to be a correction sometime ago but didn't and still no sign of it. Instead we are making a surprising parabolic accelerated bullish run in the last 24 hours. Hours ago even the community's popular analysts were still talking about Bitcoins (almost) funeral. Now suddenly everything, everyone and everyword is changed. Talking about how glorious BTC's is. These are all alarming to me. So this last increase looks like a FOMO madness to me. And I consider it a danger zone. So Beware.
This is my opinion. Trade on your own discretion.
Exitpump in progress at important resistance, blowoff phaseThe grand exchanges exit pump is upon us. Talked about this in nov-dec '17 on tg and discord that this possibility was very present of how they did this in the past (especially with tethers at almost instantaneous access) and that sentiment can switch on a dime's notice, got the same feeling after the mysterious 100m buyer (i.e. exchanges in cahoot) as years gox and china fud manipulation, then tether/finex investigations went public memories and feelings of mtgox are reliving well now for exit pump in making. Big sells already happened at coinbase with almost no vol +40% up since (same other fiat exchanges, pumping on EMPTY books). No bid liquidity once this monster comes back down. Greedy people means they will be last to exit and we all know how that will look like. Stairs up, elevator down can be related to this human greed emotion. But in the end, not much retail is in anyway, paint tapers do w/e they want, I don't care about illusions and interpretations of fakenews telling you why this and that, always after the fact without any disclosure of personal positions.
Tbh, I would love to have seen finex to 33k while others at 3.3k, but it seems they still are "the market", like gox was "the market" back then.
Yeah, looks legit tether trading at $1.05 while at another place below a $1. Tether should be <= $0.74 by any common sense for the 26% unbacked reserves... All natural, right? The only natural thing coming is the selloff. Manipulation always happens first upwards and is always preferably over going down, because % exceeds the same price delta, that's why most of those exchanges employ the retarded "hodl" meme. If hodl, then please close your exchanges, we don't need you for hodl, I can buy p2p or from some website as well and hodl in my own wallet, thank you very much.
imgur.com
With this idea, I wanna see how this plays out in the months that follow this with all the recent events, the > 99% of bulls (including permabears that flipped to bulls at important resistance), since I'm used to clear all drawings after a while to start from scratch. The previous idea is active and this is a supplement to that and a chart from last year with the wyckoff distribution schematic 2.
Btw, for all bulltards thinking I'm a permabear, you're dead wrong. I bought the entire lower TR back in nov-dec (scalped 4.8k, 4.2k; held 3.2-3.3k), lots of people can confirm on tg and discord as I was one of the only ones insisting to buy and if goes lower buy more, despite everyone calling for lower lows. Nice try though, I'm getting used to this that people flip the script and the worst thing to do is lying to yourself. I will be a bull when the time is there. I don't wanna end up as bullsteak for what's coming.
Can it go higher? Absolutely, can even go to 8k or 13k, sure. Am I prepared for that? Yes, read previous idea how I'm playing this. Can -3k candle come? Absolutely, happened before a lot of times as well. Just use common sense and don't buy when it's pumped 100% with no retrace at a major confluence of resistance, that doesn't make any sense.
Imho, now is the time to #exitallcrypto and enjoy the spring/summer of the money you made. Imagine not taking profits at 100%, talking about greed.
BTC Update! My thoughts on Fidelity BTC trading opening!Yesterdays chart we were watching to see if BTC was going to consolidate or if it was just a daily bull flag. Consolidation I questioned because the 4 hour chart was still holding its lows in tact making me hesitant to believe the daily chart would begin consolidation over it just being a bull flag to continuation.
We got confirmation last night on the bull flag and ran pretty much right into the start of my resistance zone I highlighted a couple weeks ago. I would personally expect us to struggle here for several weeks under normal conditions or just reject hard from resistance zone. But, this is crypto and things aren't exactly normal.
So besides technical analysis, you must keep up with fundamentals, news/media, FUD/FOMO news, etc.
So Fidelity announced yesterday or the day before it would be offering BTC trading "in a few weeks" I believe is how they worded it.
So I've been thinking of how the market is most likely to react to this information as the actual trading opens in a few weeks.
Key points to this - Fidelity is opening this trading to institutional/pro investors, NOT retail investors. We will eventually have a KNOWN date to when this trading will begin.
Personal thoughts on this: BE READY. I believe this could take one of two different turns here. One bullish for those loving crypto and one bearish but I do believe both will be fairly easy to see which one is likely to occur.
For those newer to the space (Jan 2018 or later) - please read up on the 2017 bull run if you have not already. For those of us who have been in the space for a few years now already know exactly how crazy this market can be.
So lets start with 2 years ago. May 2017. We were around $1500 BTC price. We saw a huge run up between May 2017 and December 2017 to nearly $20k. And then the crash started and continued for all of 2018. But what interests me if in 2017 when Futures Trading was announced as coming soon. CME/CBOE were both looking to open futures trading. This sent the bulls into a frenzy. Media really picked up their coverage. FOMO set in. Everyone starts drinking the BTC KoolAid. We ran up to $20k from $6k in a matter of 5 weeks! And then Futures opened and we immediately dumped 40%+. And then start the strong and steady trend down to $3100 over the course of 2018.
Starting to see any correlations? Is this Fidelity news going to startup the frenzy again and get people back on the BTC train? Will we repeat the same process and over "a few weeks" as we wait for Fidelity to open see a run from about $6k to $20k only to then see Wall Street short it like crazy when it hits Fidelity platform? I don't believe we will see that type of pump but do believe we could see a strong push upwards, $8k? 10k? Perhaps. And if we do over the next few weeks start seeing increasing media hype and attention, Fidelity pumping their news on trading opening, get the known date for it to start, etc. then I'd personally be looking to ride the wave up and be sure to exit a day or two prior to Fidelity trading opening with anticipation that the institutions are not going to be buyers to go long if BTC price has run wild in the weeks leading up to their known date but rather that they'd seek to short the asset.
Flip side of this: does BTC price just reject here in the $6k range and start dumping over the new "few weeks" because Wall Street legitimately DOES want in on the asset to be long positions. But they of course want to buy as cheaply as possible before the long their position. Remember, this is ONLY going to be open to institutions/pros for Fidelity initially. So if I were an institution wanting to long a position, you get price to come down leading up to your known event and then you buy it up and create the FOMO/hype to get the ball rolling in the bullish direction again. In this scenario, institutions can be long, start driving the price UP and then announce they will open BTC trading to its retail investors "in a few weeks"... create further hype/FOMO/KoolAid drinking and really pump the price as retail investors get excited they can buy and sell BTC on Fidelity. At that point those institutions who are long are making killer profits and perhaps then they short once retail investors are allowed in and they crush the retail investors and institution make their money both directions.
Sorry for the long take but that is how I am personally preparing. Does it have to happen exactly or even close to either of those scenarios? Of course not. But I always seek to have a plan in place. Lay it out and then watch to see how the pieces begin to fall into place. Could BTC just dance around sideways and not go up or down much leading up to Fidelity opening in a few weeks for institutions? Certainly. I just personally am preparing for more volatile situations.
Personal trades - as noted in yesterdays chart I was back to all cash. I then noted in comments of yesterdays chart shortly after that I had begun to scale into LTC and NEO for my next trades. I remain in these positions just slightly above average entry and will be watching 4 hour higher lows to utilize as stops. If we see a nice push upward, I will scale out of portions of my positions just to lock up profits and lower my break even point for remainder of position.
Just My 2 Sats!
Bitcoin : Don't FOMO ! But ...Hello, I'm as much as you thrilled by the idea of a new bullrun , knowingly that this time, it's going to be even stronger than before. More and more people are joining the crypto sphere and those who got in, back in january 2018 , are still here since then, waiting for the right moment to get their chance . It's going to be massive : some say bitcoin could reach 100k$ easily , that if we compare the Bitcoin bubble to the Internet bubble , we haven't gone anywhere near as high as people went for the internet, if we look at the money involved. We know the tech is good, but the tech isn't linked to the price , sadly, it needs to climb slowly, with cycles , and those take time, that's how it works. After a move up, people will take their profits, and make the price go down, that's a correction .
My TA is simple.
The bullish sign is the 200 EMA Cross . We know that when we are above this line 80% of successful trades are longs.
The bearish sign is that the RSI is at its biggest overbought since december 2018 ( when BTC hit 16 500$ )
Right now I'm bearish. But I can't predict the future, that's where TA has a limit.
How to exactly know when to get in ?
You can use My PSAR Bot Trader to set up and alert and receive a notification as soon as the Trend reverses.
TLDR;
Prepare yourself for a move. Get some stable coins and be ready to enter if something were to happen. Do not wait the last minute to make your bank transfer, it can take up to 48h and trust me there is no worse senstation that missing out because of that. But most importantly: Don't FOMO because it could very well go -30% again after this move up.
Good luck ! TAs and ideas are welcome.
NMR/BTC - wait a minuteNMR/BTC making a nice move upwards but seems to be finding resistance at the top of the range. If a daily candle closes above the range then the green box will be active. If the daily candle and/or further daily candles close within the range then expected downside towards the lower green boxes.
Blue triangle indicates the current range.
Green box is buy.
Red box is sell.
Blue line indicates major resistance.
ETHEREUM (ETHUSD): avoid FOMO and being eaten alive. I present an alternative and perhaps unpopular perspective on ETHUSD. I'm saying that there is a risk that price on 2H and 4H time frames could spike down into the Daily trend before recovering.
The markets are there to make us feel stupid. If for example, the price rocks north now, everybody would say I am wrong. But I'm not here to be right about one position. I'm here to control my risks over several trades in the long term.
LOOM-BTC Trade SetupMid-Long Term Trade
-> Accumulate in the given Buy Zone
-> TPs at the Blue Lines
-> SL at the red line
WAVESBTC Trade SetupShort-Mid Term Trade
-> Accumulate in the given Buy Zone
-> TPs at the Blue Lines
-> SL at the red line