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FOMC

Stocks Stabilize Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 has dumped further, and we are well below previous relative lows. It was pretty much a straight dive from the 4100's to the 3700's, with very little buy back or even a sign of a technical retracement. We do appear to be finding support at 3758, with a wick extending down a bit further to 3714 or so. After that, we got a small pivot back to 3792 or so. The Kovach OBV has leveled off and is even starting to turn up a bit, suggesting that we may see continued support at these levels and even range a bit between 3758 and 3792. We anticipate 3714 to be a floor for now, but another proper selloff could easily smash through and test the 3600's. It should be a quiet day today as the markets are anticipating the FOMC tomorrow.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
U.S. Dollar Index 12H TA : 06.13.22 As you can see, the price has reached an important SUPPLY ZONE and we have to wait for seeing any negative reaction from the Dollar Index with the start of the new trading week. This week (Tuesday) we have the announcement of the PPI index , which is part of the inflation data . On Wednesday, we also have FOMC Press Conference to increase or not increase interest rates, which forecasts indicate a half percent increase in interest rates. Of course, this news has been anticipated to some extent, but we still have to see the momentary effect of the news on the chart and trade based on the fact, so until then we do not prejudge the market and only consider different scenarios. Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 06.13.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
TVC:DXYShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
1
strategy over next 3 weeks should be profitable (volatility)INTRO 15 year old trader in England comment your ideas want to know what u think Over the next 3 weeks I believe if you wait for volatility peaks or volatility consolidation trading sideways basically and then take a short or long position depending on economic data coming over this week this will create vol in the markets which will help the strategy create the ideal market conditions to take a position. This week many economic events are happening meaning markets will correlate to these events meaning there will be a reason behind the madness meaning before the data is released equites could trade sideway and then react to the data released going long or short. This strategy should be profitable while taking other fundamental and technical factors into account IS THE STRATERGY GOING TO BE SUCCESFUL volatility should increase over this week because traders will want to trade the economic data coming in this week which will mean either two things equites will consolidate or there will be a burst of liquidity over this week which could be crushed if the fed decide to hike rates even further which will cause liquidity to deuterate even further causing markets to consolidate. this means extended high volatility periods are inevitable which could mean a hard week for traders as there is no liquidity for them to exit their positions. the strategy i have outlined could be affected by this but by taking the money flow index into account before taking a trade it will mean if there is a extended period of volatility liquidity should follow but we could be trading sideways for the next few week. as i have shown here their are so many possible outcomes this week because of the pure amount of variables but if I believe this strategy will mean all of these possible situations will be tradable meaning it could be profitable over the next 3 weeks MAIN ECONMIC EVENTS THAT WILL IMPACT THE STRAT Over the next week we have the producer price index data this measures the change in input price of goods and services, it measures the input costs. if the input costs rises it will mean a decrease in profit margin for business and rising costs for the customer and if it falls decreasing costs for the customer and increasing profit margins for the business. this will impact the strategy because if the data is better investor confidence will increase in the current health of the business which will mean and increase of buyers providing liquidly to the market and of course the opposite for if the data is worse than we expected. as well as the core retail sales date which basically measures the sales at the retail level in the us which will be impacted by current consumer spending with credit spending be very high at the moment the forecast is higher than the previous. but it should be the opposite because of recessionary fears which shows a slight bit of compliancy by the American consumer. if the forecast is positive as expected it should be bullish for equites especially retail stocks such as WMT. As well as large decisions coming from the fed with the interest rate decision coming in which could completely change the markets liquidity and direction in addition to the FOMC economic projections which will affect investor confidence for the good or bad we will see. all off these factors will affect the market deeply. which will be a perfect condition for the strategy to operate
NASDAQ:NVDA
by harrybergin
Dollar Index -07-06-2022-• USD technical picture still looks bullish, supported by multi month ascending trend line • There are 2 support lines, labeled in blue and • Higher slope and steepness is called accelerating trend line, which signals a strong dominating bullish trend • Index also supported by the orange multi year trend line resistance turned support now • Next target on the upside is at 103 (2020 high) followed by 103.80 (2017 high) which, if broken, exposes the 2022 high at 105
TVC:DXYLong
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Let's go long on GOLDWith profits of 200pips from yesterday's short to $1910, we're now long. Prices at around 1910 dollars seem like a great place to end the current correction and begin a new upward move, for the following reasons: 1) The June 2021 broken resistance high should now serve as a strong support level. 2) A 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 15th December rally is represented by 1911 dollars, 3) Levels between 1925 and 1891 represent 50% and 61.80% of the 28th January rally. With the meeting of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee scheduled to end today. Volatility is expected to be higher than usual, and while I expect prices to remain above the 1910 dollar mark, any quick test and a false breakout to 1890 dollars per ounce should be fine and would not change our technical view.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MohannadYakout
ES | FOMC Price Action 5/25/2022The May 3, 2022 FOMC Meeting minutes was released 5/25/2022, which is another opportunity for Market Makers to swing price around violently and take out liquidity. We knew the obvious target would be the Buyside Liquidity at ES 3982.25. This level was the only major liquidity level in the nearby area. Also, after taking Buyside Liquidity price would continue going down as it has been for several weeks. So this case made logical sense. And that is exactly what happened. ES whipsawed up and down to take out the local liquidity levels before then going up to take out 3982.25. But it didn’t stop there. Price also completely closed the daily Fair Value Gap which means there are no more reasons for price to go up any further. In my opinion, ES continues its march down for a while.
CME_MINI:ESM2022
by Infinity_Trading_
EURUSD 4H TA Result : +115 Pips ✅✅ RESULTS SO FAR : +115 Pips ✅ THE main analysis : As you can see, the price reached 1.0632 to 1.065 after the correction and reacted positively, before that it was a strong supply range and now, despite organizational support, it can become a demand range (conversion levels) , the next important levels are also marked on the chart. The Second one : Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 05.30.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!FOMC – 25/05/22 This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve seen a bit of a decline today as we suggested in yesterdays end of day analysis. We were looking for the immediate support to hold and if it broke the level below, which is yet to be targeted. We will use the 1H chart today with the 4H levels as these are more applicable in volatile markets, like the ones were seeing at the moment. So, we have support below as suggested around the 1830-35 region and immediate resistance above which is now the 1855-60 level. Excalibur has given us an indication of a move, however, we would like to trade this using the extreme levels for FOMC and rather stay out of the immediate levels while there is a chance they can move it aggressively. As always, we will trade this with two scenarios in mind. Scenario 1: The push the price up into that 1855-60 level and we see resistance there, as long as this level doesn’t break we see this as an opportunity to short the market back into the 1830-35 region as the first target and below that the 1820 level. Scenario 2: This one would be ideal for us. They push the price down into the 1830-35 and potentially below that into 1820. If we see support formed here, we feel this would represent an opportunity to then long the market back up into 1850, 1865 and above that 1870 price points. It’s a short on today and to be honest we don’t think we will get involved in trading the FOMC release. We would rather wait for them to take the price to where they want to buy or sell it and then we’ll look to get in for a longer term position. If you’re new to trading, don’t think you’ll get rich of these events, they take a lot of practice and experience to trade. The trade will always come, most of the time its once the market has moved to a certain point or level. In summary: Look for the lower support regions to go long or the higher resistance levels to go short. We’re below 1850 but we must not close the daily below the 1830-35 level. Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
Bitcoin Short - don't always short butI like to short altcoins and long Bitcoin BUT... when Jerome Powell will likely be delivering a KO to the market today at the top of the most clear range ever.. I can't help but call out what I am going to shoot at. #BTC has gone from $28600 > $30,600 > $28600 > $30,600 > $28600 > $30,600 > $28600 > and not heading to $30600 pending bad news.. If JPOW surprises everyone and says they are pulling back because their silly rate hikes are killing the market and not fighting inflation at all... then invalidated and get out of the way fast! If he does what everyone thinks he will and announces more hikes coming (50 or 75 bps) Bitcoin is probably going to see sub $20,000 in a hurry. (where I will be selling body parts to buy) Good luck out there!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Trainwreck
3
Gold Analysis Ahead of The FOMC. How to trade gold at FOMC? The much awaited FOMC will be released in a few hours. Naturally, there happens a big movement in dollar related pairs during FOMC. There are two parts to the FOMC statement 1. Hawkish 2. Dovish In a nutshell, hawkish means positive economic activity or optimistic positive economic projections. Hawkish statement includes all positive economic outcomes, including positive economic growth, positive trade balance, positive upcoming economic projections, more job creation, bank rates and salary increases. And Dovish is the opposite of all hawks. Now the thing is, not everything in a country is as positive, but not everything is negative. That's why we look at two or three important matters in each FOMC. If these two / three issues are positive then we do not accept the statement is hawkish, and if it is negative then we consider that the statement is dovish. The key issues in today's FOMC statement are inflation, economic growth and bank rates. And the biggest issue is the bank rate. If all three of these issues are positive then we will take the statement hawkish and we will buy dollars against other currencies. In that case we must sell gold. Now we will check the previous data a little bit about upcoming FOMC statement, from the previous data it is understood that the economic growth i.e. the previous GDP report dropped and this week the GDP report has forecast negative. That means economic growth is negative. But the job market report was positive in that case, although the economic growth is negative, the United States has some advantages compared to other countries. In that case economic growth is not entirely hawkish, but better than others. Inflation, on the other hand, is in a super high position. The last CPI report was positive. It is good to increase inflation to a certain level, but it is dangerous to increase it too much. American inflation is now in a somewhat dangerous state. We will not call it positive at all. However, it could also be positive if Powell mentions in his statement that inflation has risen, in the future we will raise rates further to control inflation. Basically, central bank rise bank rates to control inflation. So we have to see how Powell treats this higher inflation. If there are hints of more rate hikes up front, then it makes sense. This will be considered as higher inflation positive and the statement is hawkish. Now let's come to the most important issue, rate hints. Basically, almost everything depends on this issue today. If Powell says today that they want to increase the rate by 50 bp even after July, then the statement will be hawkish. But if there are no hints about the aftermath of July, the dollar may not benefit much. Because it has already said that it will increase the rate by 50 bp in July-July, and the dollar has already become quite strong in the market with the price in it. So, we have to keep this in mind at the time of the statement, what Powell says about the upcoming bank rates. Now if the FED says that we no longer need to raise rates, or hints to raise rates below 25 BP, then the dollar will be weak against gold, if nothing else. Although such a possibility is low, but not absolutely impossible. The dollar has strengthened against almost all currencies around the world. If the dollar is so strong in the long run, it will be bad for America in the long run as a reserve currency. American trade will decline, exports will decline. From my own experience, I had seen many times if the dollar is strong in the long run, the FED willfully give a dovish statement just to weaken the dollar. So as not to have a negative impact on the economy in the long run. And since the dollar has been strong for several months now, and there is no press conference in today's statement, the Fed may be willing to issue a dovish statement. I will not make any decision beforehand of the FOMC but after FOMC, we will open trades based on the statement. Technical view Immediate resistance from the current rate is $1870 And there is support at $ 1850/1845. Until FOMC, there is an opportunity that gold may test $1850/1845. If the statement is dovish then Gold is more likely to test $1870 area by bouncing from $1850/45. If the statement is too dovish, it can break $1870 and may test $1880 areas. However, in the current context, it is very difficult for Gold to go above 1880 area. On the other hand, if the FOMC statement is hawkish and the gold is stable below the $1845 area, then our 1st target for sale is $1830 and the final target is $1812.
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
2
USD/JPY: Heavy Bank Selling seenUSD/JPY: Heavy Bank Selling seen - POC above current price levels - Heavy Volume during last sell-off - Symmetrical triangle broken - Lower lows and lower highs We have to watch ONE risk factor and that is the FOMC Minutes tonight. However, the technical landscape is clear and USD/JPY is likey to fall further furing the next days. ✅ Check our bio for Wall Street Setups ✅ LIVE MyFxBook Performance ✅ Real deal Wall Street Trader 👉 Join our steam today: www.tradingview.com
Short
by WallStreetIntelligence
A Clear Path from Here - organized whipsaw comingIf looking at this chart at a glance hurts your brain, no worries I will summarize for you below (I need these lines personally to make swing trade decisions but the concept is pretty simple). I am just using "1-5" rather than "I -V" but it is a smaller wave nothing major. Enough to tell us map of near-term price action going into FOMC): Bearish wave 3 was in at yesterdays low (just slighly over 1.618 of wave 1-2), wave 2 retraced just over 50% of wave . Now we are on wave 4. - Expected wave 4 target is 422.21 (0.382 of wave 3). Expecting to see this today actually before starting wave 5 *** IF SPY breaks above 427.52 the bearish count is invalidated (> 0.5 of wave 3). Bulls recently saw this happen back in mid April when the downside pressure invalidated their count at attempted wave 4, if you believe in paybacks don't close out all your calls just yet. Probability does not favor this, however) - Wave 5 could drop to a variable range based on the retracement variability of EWT for wave 5 (I don't make these rules), however, my point estimate is SPY 395.76 (Range 390-400, max extended range 378-411 - you might think that is quite a range but these are the mathematical limits). Point prediction: 420s today, 390s going into FOMC, start of major rally post-FOMC that will begin larger Wave 5 to mid 500s by end of year (below 350 invalidates a 13-year bullish structure prematurely so I would not bank on that if you respect probability). The initial target after the wave 5 at apprx. 395 confirms larger wave 4 correction is completed will be SPY 440s, of course we will have to update accordingly based on the realized levels traded. Possible setup that could invalidate wave 4 is a bearish harmonic with D > 427.52. Based on previous FOMC they love to whipsaw and create escape velocity for the ever "unexpected" post-meeting rally, and with this structure they can whipsaw in a very organized manner. Best to all, Davy Jones
AMEX:SPY
by JerryManders