Get started

FOMC

Stocks Range Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 is ranging near relative highs. We broke out into the 4000's, but fell short of 4009. Several red triangles on the KRI are confirming strong resistance at these higher levels. We have some support from 3909, and a break down could take us back to the mid 3800's, likely 3848 or so. A rally could test 4009 again. We expect the S&P to respect this range, and don't expect too much action from the FOMC today, as the markets have largely priced in a 75bps hike to combat inflation with a small probability of a 100bps rate hike, the largest hike since 1989 .
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
SPY Rejection: FOMC in the next hourDespite being positive on the day, we saw earlier price get rejected on the upper resistance trend line of our longer term downward channel. The gap up today was interesting, but I am curious to see how this plays out following the Fed decision. Since we have been declining from ATH's, this upper resistance trend line has shown multiple instances of rapid downward movement because of the trendlines significance. Fed decision may fill the gap up we created this morning. See related links to see the fuller picture and downward channel on a daily time frame.
SP:SPXShort
by chartxzy
3
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC: This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. Gold is at a crucial price point at the moment just before a big federal statement release. After the move we’ve had to the downside, we would expect Gold to want to attempt some form of recovery, to at least the 1800 price region. However, as you can see, the institutional selling isn’t giving bulls an opportunity to cover any positions that are being held above. We witnessed a bullish weekly candle last week, but it’s still weak and lacks volume. It was a failed attempt to recover, which entails caution for this FOMC and the days ahead until the end of the month. We published a KOG Report last week showing the liquidity pool sitting below around the 1650-65 price zone; this is a potential target to swoop the lows before an attempt to test the voids above. For this reason, we will look at the extreme levels for FOMC and the days ahead, not being concerned about the immediate range and levels. We already know the 1750 psychological level is going to try and be defended and have indications of a push up in price if that 1720 -16 level holds as support. We want to see if bears defend it by coming in and taking this down into the liquidity region breaking the yearly low! We can see MA’s grouped together on the hourly and now on the 4 hourly timeframes. We have a huge gap to the mean above on the daily, that either needs to be visited or the ranging price action will bring it down lower. We’re still in bearish mode here expecting a swing to the upside before then a break of this low to continue downwards so let’s set the scene for the potential move to come. As always, we’ll trade this with two scenarios in mind using the 4H extreme levels as a guide. Scenario 1: They push the price up towards 1750 or potentially slightly above or below, we see resistance there and a clear rejection in price. This is the first level we feel that will represent an opportunity to short the market down into the 1720, 1710, 1695 and below that 1675 levels. These levels below 1675, especially that 1665-40 region is where we want to see exhaustion in price to then look to take this back up towards the 1750 price point as the first target. Scenario 2: They push the price down into the lower support levels of 1690-80, this is where we want to see the first level of support, based on strong support we feel this level would represent an opportunity to then long the market back up towards the 1720, 1735 and above that 1750 price points. As we said above, there is a huge chance they will try to break that level to the downside so expect a swoop into that liquidity pool below. The ideal long is more likely going to be from there and that’s our preferred region at the moment. Because it is FOMC we’re focusing on the extreme levels, we’re not interested in trying to capture quick pips in a volatile market against the volume driven candles. If the plan works out it works out, if it doesn’t, we’re happy to sit tight and let Excalibur guide us intra-day through the markets. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
12
🔥 Bitcoin & FOMC Interest Rate Decision: What To Watch ForLike most of you know, in a couple of hours the US Federal Reserve will share with the world how much they will increase the interest rates. Remember that lower interest rates = bullish for the markets. At the moment, there's a 75% expectation that the hike will be 0.75% and a 25% expectation that the hike will be 1%. Naturally, if the FED will increase with 1% we can expect a massive down move. The extremely bearish reaction target for a 1% hike would be $18k. However, if the FED will only increase by 0.75% we can expect a slightly bullish move. This might be the starting signal for a move all the way back to the top of the channel, think $24k or so. Obviously, the percentage of the hike will be important. However, what most market participants are watching will be the FED meeting where J. Powell will talk about the outlook of the markets and the interest rate hikes for the coming months. This is where the real direction of the markets will be decided. My advice would be to wait for what the market will do. Ideally wait until tomorrow, because tonight's initial direction can be a fake out, like a couple of meetings ago.
by FieryTrading
17
US INTERESET RATE! FOMC STATEMENTHello guys! Let's talk about the US interest rate news that will be published tonight. I am not a good fundamentalist but I am a good chartist instead. That's why I put the US interest rate chart in the picture above. The above photo is the most data that has been published about interest rates so far. I see that around 1980 the interest rate went up to 20%. This figure is really strange for the American economy, isn't it? And for the economic crisis of 2008, raising it to 5%. The chart below is for the last 20 years. And the photo on the right is the analysts' forecast for the interest rate, that is, they predict that today the US interest rate will reach 2.5% and after that it will reach up to 3.5%. But if we look at the interest rate chart alone, it is reaching its downward trend line and I see a resistance in the lower time. Which do you think we should be assured? Chart or fundamental analysts?
TVC:DXY
by melikatrader94
1
XAUUSD 4H TA : 07.27.22 (Update)Updating the last analysis : By maintaining the Support of the $1713 to $1718 range, we can expect growth up to $1752 ! If this support is lost, we can expect a drop to the range of $1,694 to $1,700! Be prepared for both scenarios! In the previous 2 analyzes, we were able to obtain more than 250 pips ! Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 07.27.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
6
Today BTC fate will be decided..Market has slowed down as everyone holds their breath before FOMC. We can expect range before the meeting today at evening. How BTC price usually behaves before FOMC? Usually BTC is going the opposite direction of FOMC a couple days before the meeting to give more room for the market for fall/rise. Last couple days BTC was falling. What to do during FOMC? meeting Open DOM and track orders. Last time BTC did false breakout up and then fall down. Formation looked similar. Be on lookout for big sizes as they move the market. What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
by Artem_Dishel
15
DYDX - Perfect formation to trade during FOMCDYDX is interesting, especially to short. It has beautifull trendline that has been touched 3 times already. Long is interesting too since we tested resistance zone a couple times already. It can go both ways and it's exactly what you need before FOMC. Direction depends on what FOMC meeting today will bring us. If news are good, take green scenario. If news will be bad, take blue one. In all cases, before entering look at 5m timeframe to find best entry point, check DOM for favorable wind and fix profit by parts. 1% - 1/3 2% - 1/3, stoploss to breakeven What's left, hold to the maximum What do you think of this idea? What is your opinion? Share it in the comments📄🖌 If you like the idea, please give it a like. This is the best "Thank you!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profit in parts. Withdraw profits in fiat and reward yourself and your loved ones
by Artem_Dishel
6
EUR/USD rolling over ahead of FOMC?EUR/USD seems to have broken range support at 1.0143 ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Prices are retesting that level as resistance. If it holds, extension back toward parity is probably in the cards. Needless to say however, upcoming event risk is heavy-duty and may moot the chart setup. As it stands, the markets have fully priced in a 75bps Fed rate hike and the central bank will likely deliver accordingly. That'll put the focus on the tone of the accompanying statement and the press conference with Chair Powell to follow. Looking at Fed Funds futures, the markets' going Fed outlook calls for: +325bps in 2022 -50bps in 2023 -25bps in 2024 In the past two weeks, USD has pulled back alongside the MOVE index of 1-month implied Treasuries volatility while stocks have rebounded. This suggests that investors are getting increasingly comfortable with the above 2022-24 baseline, and that this has supported some recovery in risk appetite. However, the Fed must contend with structural inflationary forces such as de-globalization and sticky wages locked in amid the current price growth surge. Further, while priced-in inflation expectations baked into the bond market (tracked via breakeven rates) have fallen, a return to the 2 percent target is seemingly not on the menu for years to come. With this in mind, officials may signal that easing may not be in the cards so swiftly. That may give the US Dollar fresh fuel for a rally, validating the emerging EUR/USD chart setup.
Short
by IlyaSpivak
USDCAD setting up for a new leg lower?Hello to all our subscribers and to the TradingView community, thanks for tuning in for today’s update. Today we are looking at the USDCAD off the daily chart as sellers look to be pushing at a new leg lower. Yesterday sellers put to bed a quick recovery rally from buyers by not only killing the candle but by also breaking below 1.2855 support. This could be significant as that support level has stood for buyers since June. On top of the support break, we can also see a trend break and a new LH with the moving averages crossing and sloping downwards. The OBV indicator is also sloped down and has set two LHs. Today price has run lower after a brief attempt to fight back, and we are looking for sellers to break the final point of demand at 1.2820. A close below that point could set of a new leg lower. Also supporting sellers at this stage is a higher oil price. So far, USOUSD is 1.58% higher. Normally when oil is higher, the USDCAD is lower as the CAD is a commodity currency and rallies with oil. If we see a reversal and close back above 1.2855 that would be a worry for the current idea. Thursday mornings (AEST time) FOMC meeting could also have an impact on this picture. The market expects a rate increase to 2.50% from the FED this week.
Short
by Eightcap
BTC UPDATE! HOW LOW BTC CAN GO FROM HERE??Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Welcome to this BTC update. BTC is continuously dropping from the $24k resistance level and liquidate the most of the traders who opens a long position after seeing the break out. This is how market makers playing with retail traders. If you wants to earn money in this market you have to think like a whale. We clearly told you about this rejection in our previous update. Hope you listen and save your hard earned money. So what's next? Now the scenario is that BTC is back inside the triangle after giving a fake break out so there is high chances that BTC might test again the lower trendline of the triangle which is around $20k-$20.4k level. If BTC holds the lower trendline of the triangle and bounce from there then this time we see a real break out and BTC might pump again. But the main concern here is Fed FOMC meeting which is held on 27th July so if we got some negative results then market might take more dip. Let's hope for the better. As of now it's better to wait for the FOMC meeting results. After that we see some positive movement in the market. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Also, share your views in the comment section. Thank You!
by CoreCrypto1
#SPX - Update 7-25-2022SPX had a solid two week run hitting our 4000 Target before showing a pullback. SNAP ER showed an early sign of possible Earnings outcomes for Social Media Stocks. There are still Dip Buyers in the Market so it is possible to see a continuation into 4100 depending on reports. Wednesday is a Heavy Binary Day with Bigger ER stocks and FOMC. For today I'd watch the price action and take smal quicker plays until Wednesday. If SPX can defend 3938 we can see a drop in the markets to 3900, 3880 next. I would wait for SPX to reclaim 4000 for calls.
SP:SPX
by MoneyFlow_Options_Community
⚡️ #BTC OUTLOOK - 25/07⚡️⚡️ #BTC OUTLOOK - 25/07⚡️ Looking very bearish short-term with big bounce incoming. Currently in a smaller short-term range heading down back into the longer term range. That is sitting with a low of $20.3k - with a lot of uncertainty of theis weeks meetings and announcements, also earnings reports dropping I don't think it will all be priced in yet, also a lot of arm chairs traders will already be on high alert ready to sell so this will likely tip them over the edge to hit that Market Sell button. This lines up with the previous unfilled weekly pivot too. It is likely we will see a bounce here with a lot refilling their bags at this desirable $20k price point. I feel it will take off from here - even going as far to say that this could be the big turning point. Although breaking through the $20.3k or even $20k this time could spell a serious blood bath with sub 17.5k targets looking very realistic.
by Kryptochristian
SPY- Bearish- UpdateJust posting a quick update on the SPY here as on Friday we saw a hard rejection of the 400 level. The SPY closed out the week reclaiming its 50-day EMA and is sitting right on it at the moment, however, it rejected the 400 mark multiple times on Friday. Additionally, a bearish ABCD Elliot Wave has fully formed on the daily timeframe accompanied with some bearish hidden divergence on the RSI. Seems as if this bearish megaphone is continuing to play out so will be treading lightly at the moment. Lastly, certainly worthwhile to note the importance of the upcoming week economically speaking. This coming Wednesday there's the upcoming FOMC announcement pertaining to inflation and interest rates, followed by the Fed Chair Press Conference, as well as various other economic data of the likes of GDP data, and new home sales. Staying hedged & scaling into long-term buying opportunities. Just some FIB levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime - (Previous Charts Attached Below). --Previously Charted--
AMEX:SPYShort
by jacobosiason7
1