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FOMC

Stocks Open Near HighsStocks opened near highs as investors digest last week's data. We have retail sales and housing data this week, which may contribute to a clearer picture of the Fed's plan for their September meeting. Currently, the estimate seems to be a 50bps rate hike, followed by a potential softening in policy stance. The S&P 500 hit our target of 4272, and seems to be tapering slightly. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has started to level off. If we see resistance here, watch for support in the lower 4200's or 4188. If we are able to break out again, then 4306 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
$ES - What to do now?$ES - What to do now? This weekend, I present you many ideas in various assets and here's one chart of $ES is last and its important chart I am keeping an eye on for LT positioning. We've had great bullish momentum due to 'we are at neutral rates', CPI steady - For now and all data is excelling perfectly this week we do have FOMC minutes and as have US Retail sales. The key areas I am keeping in mind when it comes to fundamentals is the factoring in credit cards, has been escalating further and real estate is in trouble due to obviously high rates. There are many other bearish fundamental factors but then we have the bullish momentum side technically - ES is bullish and the fundamentals less rate hikes of hights 75 is less anticipated and further slow down leading DXY to pull back and ES, RYT, NQ & even looking at QQQ to excel further and this could be the bottom of 3700 areas for ES. Technically - we are a trendline resistance which comes at the levels of: 4300-4200 areas. A key pull back towards areas of support of: 4180, 4000 & 3900. Are the areas I am keeping an eye on. TJ
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trade_Journal
Monthly Bitcoin AnalysisHi, I hope you're doing well. On the monthly chart of Bitcoin and the analysis of its Accumulation/Distribution indicator, we can observe that the slope of the A/D line is showing some potential bottoming. Whenever the slope of EMA and SMA of the line turns positive, we can say the probability of the bitcoin bottom is very high. But all of this depends on the inflation rate of the US. If FOMC announces that the inflation is tamed and the rate goes down for the first time, a market switch could happen. Thanks for your time. Regards, Hashemi.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by rhawshemi
Softer Fed Outlook Fuels Stock RallyStocks have rallied, breaking through to higher levels. The markets seem to interpret recent economic data in a manner that suggests that the Fed is going to cool down their hawkish stance. Right now, a 50bps rate hike is expected for September (potentially the last one), whereas 75bps was not off the table before Wednesday's CPI. This was further supported by Producer Prices. Markets are considering this a green light to rally again. We have broken past 4245, but have fallen just short of our target of 4272. Resistance is confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up with the rally, but it does appear that momentum is stalling. We are due for a bit of a retracement, with 4188 a reasonable area to expect support. If the rally can continue then 4272 is the next target with 4293 and 4306 in line after that.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Range Ahead of CPIStocks have established highs, then immediately rejected them, and are continuing the sideways correction. We mentioned that 4178 and 4188 will be very hard to break, as they correspond to relative highs from a previous range held in June. We are seeing support from 4122, but we are on the precipice of a vacuum zone below to 4068. There is another vacuum zone below that to 4009. The Kovach OBV has leveled off so if nothing signficant happens, then we should maintain the current range. All eyes are on CPI today, which will provide a reading on the massive inflation we have been seeing as of late. This will give us more insight as to the Fed's plan to raise rates, potentially by 50bps at the September FOMC. Don't expect much action in stocks until at least 8:30AM EST, when the data is released.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Expectations for September's FOMCWhat do the markets care about this week? We have another CPI print on Wednesday, which is highly anticipated. We are in a period of nasty stagflation and the Fed is caught in a difficult position. They want to raise rates further, but the issue is that our cause of inflation seems to be on the supply chain side. Interest rates will do little to combat this. The NFP numbers Friday were pretty strong, so their case is strengthened to raise by at least 50bps in September, at the next FOMC. It will be almost a certainty if CPI comes in hot. Note that GDP came in contractionary for two quarters in a row, which is the definition most use for a recession. This stands somewhat at odds with the strong NFP numbers, which could be a seasonal fluke. If the data continues to indicate that we are in a recession, the Fed will eventually be forced to lower rates again. The markets seem to be weighing this reality before rallying with conviction.
FRED:FEDFUNDSLong
by quantguy
2
DXY: will we have more fresh highs?Hey traders, Above is a technical overview on DXY and the most important zone to watch, i highly recommend to take a look at DXY at the beginning of every trading week if not everyday, that will help you to Spot the direction of USD pairs and allow you to trade them in a more professional way. in the coming week we are monitoring USD INDEX for buying opportunity around 106.4 zone, once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
16
What Today's Employment Data Means for Stocks and the FedNon Farm Payrolls introduced some volatility in stocks. The numbers came in hot, with a headline beat and unemployment at 3.5% . The S&P 500 had already edged higher, reaching our target of 4178, and establishing value between 4144 and 4178. The NFP data release introduced some volatility, with a small selloff extending past 4122 into the vacuum zone down to 4068. It appears the figures were priced in already, and stocks may be correcting because of that. Also, the strong numbers give the Fed more justification to hike rates in September. If stocks fall further watch for support at 4068, but be mindful of the vacuum zone below to 4009.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold RetracesGold edged higher, breaking out of the 0.618 Fibonacci level at about $1800. However, we encountered resistance at the next technical level above, at $1815. Immediately, we saw the price action round off and retrace back to safety in the $1790's. We anticipate gold to establish value between $1780 and $1800 (two significant Fibonacci levels), unless more momentum can come through and help solidify the $1800's. The Kovach OBV is wavering, which suggests we do not quite have enough momentum yet to sustain a breakout.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Bitcoin Set to Hit 17k - August 2022Hi Bitcoin Lovers, What are my reasons for using such a bogus title? 1. Bearish forces have aligned and confirmed on D1 TF which will first of all drive price to 21224 level, retest 22735 zone and drive through 20777, 18934 and possibly 17125 area. Strategy Applied: Bearish Force 2. Exception:- If we fail to hit 20777 level, price should shoot up to 28541 / 32000 zone within the month. Strategy Applied: Wick Fill Let me know what you think in the comment section. Join me today during live GER30/EURUSD trading session here on TradingView (13:00 GST) and ask me your questions on my trading strategies. See you!!! Yours, Kings
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Kingsley_lotanna
XAUUSD Long We saw XAUUSD making a New low at 1781. We also saw price rebound from 1785 then afterwards 1781. Price make a breakout of downward channel on announcement of interest rates hike from ECB. I think intent is very clear. Now Gold is betting on the FOMC interest rates announcement on 26-27 July. I believes all the odds are priced in. We may see price increase after the FOMC. 75 BPS priced in and more likely. 100 BPs to me is unlikely as recession sounds looming in. Price will go up on 75 BPS announcement. Chart says everything. I believe strategy should be buying on dips with good money management. Good luck and Regards, Share your comments on the idea and what are the odds do share.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by decentshaw
What the Recession and FOMC Mean for StocksStocks have broken out as we identified yesterday. The fact that stocks and bonds have both caught a bid gives us insight as to how the markets are interpreting the FOMC rate hike and the GDP numbers yesterday. As we all know, GDP numbers came in negative, the second negative reading, which puts us formally in a recession by definition. Furthermore, the Fed only raised rates by 75bps (some sources were predicting 100bps). This suggests that they will likely pivot to a more dovish stance, and be forced to lower rates, or take a more accommodating stance to fight the recession, meaning that stocks are clear to rally. There is still a lot of open interest with puts in the 4000's, but when cash heavy investors start to unwind we could easily punch through. The S&P 500 broke out, clearing 4009 with ease, and hitting 4068, our next target. We broke through that and are making a run for 4122, hovering just below that. If we see more momentum come through then we will likely test 4178 or 4188, we will likely face resistance there, but will have reestablished the value area between 4068 and 4188 from June. If we retrace, watch for support at 4009, a relative high and technical level.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
⚡️ #BTCLIVE - 29.07 ⚡️⚡️ #BTCLIVE - 29.07 60:40 Bearish:Bullish I promise I am not a bear!!! The price smashed through the last point I was expecting a retracement. Amazingly it looks like BTC is finally doing what it was born to do and be a store of value and a safe haven during torrid times like these!!! We are coming up no to the key resistance of the longer term range and it is definitely the business end of the deal. I feel going into the weekend with alot of bearish TA on the cards will likely result in a retracement of pretty epic proportions. I am usually pretty bearish on weekends simply due to lower volume and generally more retail heavy traders being active. A lot of folks might be getting a little nervous too now they have made some nice and unexpected gains this week so might be happy to take the profit and chill for a bit. We are looking at a big bearish divergence on the 1 hour which is overbought too along with an exhaustion signal. The POC line is sitting very low along with the Future Pivot which carries more weight as the week nears the close. Orderbooks are looking a little bearish too. I am thinking that we will be seeing $22.9k in the pretty short-term with a more max pain target of $21k and possibly lower. There is a bullish scenario, there is ALWAYS a bullish scenario - but if we break $24.8k or more reliably $25k then it is likely we will see the tracking up to the CME gap at $27k+ Volatility is not over I feel so stay safe!
by Kryptochristian
5
BTC: EXPECTING A HEALTHY PULLBACK FROM HERE BEFORE NEXT LEG UP!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Welcome to this BTC update. BTC is pumping hard after the fed announcement of 75bps hike rate. After the news BTC breaks out from the descending channel and currently trading above $23k level. Now I'm expecting a retest from here which is much needed for a healthy upside movement. I'm expecting the price came back to $22k level and after that we see a good upside movement. If it continuously pumping without any retracement then this pump is definitely wrong and we dump hard on weekend. Let's see how this goes in the next few hours. What do you think about this? Do you also think that we see a pullback from here or do you think that it will continue pumping? Share your views in the comment section. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Thank You!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
5
NAS100 Daily Outlook | July 28Hi All, After FOMC news drive yesterday, WHAT ELSE? Here are my thoughts; 1. There is a lot of noise to the left hand side so am capping my profit target for buys from 12565 to 12667 zones. 2. Buying mostly today is also confirmed by my WICK FILL play (join my live session to access my 90% winrate playbook) but traders must not expect price to move aggressively to 12900 rather focus on the closest resistance level 3. There are chances that price can drop up until 12303/12174 levels in near term and this is because; a. We have a strong support level around 12303 b. Previous day's bar does not have a bottom wick hence has the tendency to draw price back to itself. Let me know what you think about my analysis in the comment session. To learn more about my favorite setups and how to perfectly harness pips using them, join my live streaming today. Daily Live Trading session at 8:45AM EST/ 4:45PM GST Pairs: EURUSD / NAS100 / GER30 -Kings.
FX:NAS100
by Kingsley_lotanna
4