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FOMC

US30 SHORT BIAS (UPDATED)!Hello all! Quick recap on US30 from my recent analysis videos.. I did explain previously why i am bearish on Dow, beside US30 being in high curve on HTF. The pair moved the way projected in my recent analysis, mitigating the refined weekly Supply you see in the photo, and selling to the Demand zone where the usual price cycle appeared.. Now i will be waiting for Dow to touch 34170 zone and monitor LTF. If the pair mitigates during FED speech i will sell aggressively. If not i will wait for confirmation. This sell will be a swing down to 30k. Take care, trade safe!
EIGHTCAP:US30Short
by NeddFx13
ARHS - Arhaus, Inc.Very nice reaction off of the 9ema this morning. Largest 30-min volume since the gap up on raised revenue guidance. Started a small position; couldn't justify a full position with the overall market being slightly extended on a short-term basis and showing negative action on the day. Will look to add over the debut price high of $14 only if the broad market continues its bullish phase. The all-time-high of 14.95 looms overhead, but with the volume & growth on this name, I'd expect it to clear that level as long as the market environment remains favorable. The FOMC decision and statement on Wednesday will have a major impact on the market environment. Even if I am shaken out of this starter position, I'm keeping this one on my focus list for as long as the environment remains healthy. This has the potential to be a true market leader.
NASDAQ:ARHSLong
by apaqu
SPY weekly Review 01/30/2023 - All timeframes, & AM routineIn this Video I do a quick analysis of the current condition of markets based on the SP500 proxy index the SPY. I also go through a few weekly data points as I am hoping to publish this every Monday to summarize the week head, and behind. This video is a bit long as I go through all my tools and routines, plus we have a very hectic week this week with FOMC, Earnings, Jobs, PMI, and much more. Inflation data on the horizon also (PCE Index which the FOMC cares most about, not PCI).
AMEX:SPYLong
by Markets-Sniper
BTC: $25K BEFORE FOMC AND THEN NUKE!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support it with a like and follow. Welcome to this quick BTC update. BTC is going well and is currently trading above the $23.5k level. Let's discuss the next possible scenario from here. BTC breaks above the crucial resistance of $23.3k after two days and as of now holds above it very well. As long as BTC holds above this $23k-$23.3k level we have a high chance that we see another leg up. We have another important FED meeting (FOMC) on Wednesday so I'm expecting a last push up to the $25k level before FOMC and after that, we might see a huge correction. Overall this week will be very crucial for us so trade very carefully. Do not get REKT by doing Fomo or some silly mistakes. Remember market always gives opportunities no matter what. Invalidation of $25k is if we break below $22.5 What do you think about this? Share your thoughts in the comment section. If you like this idea then do support it with like and follow. Thank You!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
4
The (Jan) FOMC meeting playbook – assessing the risk to the USDTime – The FOMC statement comes out on 2 Feb at 06:00 AEDT/ 1 Feb 19:30 GMT. Chair Powell’s press conference comes out at 06:30 AEDT / 19:30 GMT Trading considerations: Positioning – Investment banks who manage flow across spot FX, swaps, and FX forwards report that clients are net short USDs, notably by real money and leveraged, although the position is not at extremes. In the weekly TFF (Traders for Financial Futures) futures report we see that leveraged funds (hedge funds etc) have flipped to a long USD position, notably vs the AUD, EUR, and CAD. Real money accounts (asset managers, pension funds) are also net long USDs, but that position is mostly held vs the EUR. The notional position in futures is far smaller than those held in spot or forwards market, but the data is more transparent and easier to source. So as we head into the FOMC meeting, there are risks of a USD short squeeze, notably vs the JPY. If I look at 1-week implied volatility across the USD pairs the expected moves (higher or lower) over the week are hardly explosive and many sits around the 30th percentile of the 12-month range – this suggests the market is not expecting any major surprises and refrain from paying up for options volatility – I see this as an important consideration in our risk management, as it is often prudent to reduce exposures over an event where the market is expecting significant movement and the range of outcomes are varied. What to watch for? I expect a hawkish statement from the Fed this week, but so do most market participants and it is a strong consensus view. On the point of rate hikes, a 25bp hike is fully discounted, and while a 50bp hike can’t be ruled out, it would be a huge surprise. We look out the interest rate curve and after this week’s hike, see two more 25bp hikes pencilled in by mid-2023 - traders will need to marry the tone of the statement and Powell’s press conference with this pricing structure. In the less likely outcome that the Fed give the impression that they could pause after this week’s hike, then the USD could easily sell off and risky assets rally. I suspect Powell will want to be non-committal either way and allow the Fed maximum optionality to react to unfolding economic data. One big consideration is that financial conditions (as measured by moves in equity, bonds, credit, USD, and the VIX index) have loosened to a point where Chair Powell may detail the extent of easing is “unwarranted” – this pushback could be a key focal point, especially given we’ve seen a rise in commodity prices that is starting to lift inflation expectations. Would the market buy this pushback? I’m not sure the market de-risks too intently should we hear a push-back on easier financial conditions, as the market is seeing a Fed that is largely in control – at least at this stage. Wages are growing at a slower clip, while core PCE inflation is running at a 2.9% 3-month annualised pace - the slowest since Jan 2021. We see growth is still positive but below trend, and that should mitigate the need to really hit demand by taking the fed funds rate to say 6%. Somewhat more concerning is that soft data is thematic of recessionary readings, leading indicators are negative, and the consumer is pulling back on spending – it’s no surprise then that then the market anticipates a near-term pause in the hiking cycle. Then there’s the lag effect, where some 425bp of hikes still need to fully feed through to the economy. In a world of nuance, the Fed could portray that we’re closer to an end in the cycle – here, we could see a tweak to the line in the FOMC statement, where “the Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate” – where the word ‘ongoing’ is either removed or altered to “further increases”. Where do the risks sit? There doesn’t seem much reasoning for the Fed to alter its course here and should continue to highlight a commitment to reducing inflation. At this juncture, it seems unlikely the Fed would want to appear dovish, so with the risk are for a hawkish Fed – albeit this is expected - and in a market where leverage funds are short USD (in the spot market), the risks are small skewed to USD upside, which by extension this means a lower NAS100 and XAU price. Whether that plays out is another thing and perhaps the best way to trade this tactically is to stand aside and let the market react accordingly, with a view to selling rallies in the USD for a resumption of the bearish trend.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXShort
by Pepperstone
BTC Futures Rising Wedge Forming, confluence with newsI frequently chart the BTC CME Futures chart alongside a normal BTC Exchange chart. The difference between them is that CME is closed for the weekend and operated by a regulated group. This means the CME chart can frequently show different trends/patterns as it removed a lot of the noise, unnecessary wicks, etc that can come from exchanges trading over the weekend. I'm watching the early stages of this rising wedge forming. It's a bit early to call it a confirmed pattern still but worth putting on the radar. I often like to find confluence in charts aligning with news; I don't trade news but news is often a perfect catalyst for patterns to breakout. So what I have shown in the chart is a pattern that comes to an apex in about a week's time. And we have February right around the corner with a lot of news coming out, specifically the FOMC meeting minutes releasing on February 1st. This would be the perfect catalyst to create some volatility, quickly eliminate overleveraged longs and shorts, and then push for a pattern break of the rising wedge. Marking this idea as short as I am bearish overall and ready for a market reset, but note that this chart displays an idea where BTC gets one more push higher at the beginning of this week. Happy to answer any questions people have on this idea!
CME:BTC1!Short
by Obscure_Trading
AUDUSDAUDUSD - Interesting look It is very interesting range forming, we got pattern, we are at key resistance on higher time frame, within in a channel + TL but it's a waiting game on this and I think many take time it may break next week FOMC, I think that's when all FX majors will break out to either direction further. You can't predict what the FOMC are going to state, you can look at CME FedWatch Tool, which is useful but Powells commentary you can't predict that unfortunately... So what's the plan In-between now and then I trade within the ranges that would be lower time frames until this breaks either direction and then you got think to yourself 1. Is this a false break out either direction? 2. What made it break out was it more DXY move etc There are many other factors to take into consideration. That's where your OWN plan comes into execution. It's really important to not follow these marketing signal providers, trading gurus that try sell you expensive courses, they not worth it and various fancy indicators etc. There are many out there, but that's not what's going to make you successful in trading that's the reality but a trading plan of your own, that's when you're set for life! If it breaks below technically the 200 EMA is your target area and break above that psych level .7200 areas is target areas. A great trader once told me, "Don't make your PnL on a Friday". Have a great weekend, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
S&P 500 Looking For ConfirmationOn Monday, S&P 500 broke above the falling trendline and is currently looking for confirmation. On the weekly timeframe, we can see it nearing the Kaufmann Moving Average and the Ichimoku Cloud. Acceptance above this falling trendline on the daily chart and rising above the resistance level of 4014 can result in a move toward the next resistance level of the 4160 zone. If the index falls from here, the support level near the 3900 zone can be seen as an entry point for longs. Finally, with the FOMC meeting closing in, no major move should be expected this week and fluctuations can happen.
SP:SPXLong
by egegonulcan
TLT ShortTLT is approaching a technical double top area as the Feb. 1st FOMC meeting looms. Fed futures are currently pricing in a 475-500 bps terminal rate, however some fed speakers over the days have indicated a desire to exceed 500 bps this year. Market thus far hasn't bought that narrative and expects the Fed will be forced to pivot later this year due to recessionary headwinds. This pivot hopium has resulted in a rally in TLT. However, if the Fed raises rates to 50bps in February with 2 more rate hikes to go after that, Fed futures should spike above 5%. This will bring TLT crashing down to the 90-100 level. Even if the Fed only raises 25bps with 2 more rate hikes to go, a hawkish stance consistent with their recent comments about continuing rate increases should eat away at the Fed pivot hopium rally and still result in a drop of TLT to the 100 level. EIther way I don't see TLT continuing past 110 in the near term and this opens up a good short oppotunity.
CBOT:ZQU2023Short
by berzerker2020
EUR/USD -19/01/2023-• Daily EURO/DOLLAR chart, zooming out back to 2021, where the 1.5 year downtrend started • Short term, trend is bullish, higher highs higher lows • Rising wedge forming, a bearish reversal pattern • Resistance levels becoming support levels, a clear sign of an uptrend • However, looking at the big picture changes the outlook a little bit • Drew Fibonacci retracement levels 50% and 61.8% of the long term downtrend • 50% level is around 1.09 and 61.8% is around 1.1225 • Bulls are now fighting to break the 50% level, without success till now • Last area of defense for the bears is the 61.8% critical correction level • If 1.1225 level stays intact, the pair will resume the long term downtrend • Only if bulls manage to break the above level, we can safely say that the long term trend reversed and we are in a bullish market
0
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
6
Recession on the Horizon - FOMC and LayoffsYesterday, the FOMC confirmed the backing of higher interest rates for longer. The market reacted negatively signaling negative sentiment on rate expectations for the following quarters. Federal Reserve official, Neel Kashkari, who often has the most dovish views on market anticipation stated that inflation may have peaked but sees interest rates rising higher for the next few meetings. He sees the FED raising rates by a whole percentage point from the current level of 4.25%-4.5% to 5.4% (MarketWatch, Jan. 5). The inflation fight is not over yet, and it remains sticky despite all the economic weakening observed. In a previous thesis where I challenged the US economy about a year ago, I warn of massive layoffs in 2023 despite most analysts and the Fed saying otherwise. Meta and Tesla have already laid off thousands of employees just months ago. Today, large layoffs in tech are happening with Salesforce: “layoff about 10% of its employees, the company also says it will close some offices as part of its recruiting plan, but it is still unclear if any of the bay area offices will be impacted, undertaking major cost cuts in a challenging economy.” (CNBC, Jan. 5). Amazon Chief Executive Andy informed his employees that the number of layoffs in the company has now been increased to more than 18000 roles (ArabianBusiness, Jan. 5). Other firms are cost cutting, most cutting employee benefits. It is just a matter of when or not we are going to see higher unemployment rates in 2023. The most obvious fundamental reason for these layoffs and cost cuts is the fact that all these companies responded to the “bubble” fueled by stimulus and extensive quantitative easing. As a response, the Fed is raising interest higher, and tightening the monetary policy and we see the equity evaluation of these companies dropping significantly. Eventually, that demand is gone, and these companies are left with thousands of employees hired in response to a "fake" demand, over-hired. As equity evaluation is going down, they have to improve the margins by laying off employees and reducing expenses since revenue is going down. I see another reason for large layoffs, perhaps, a more IMPORTANT and IMMEDIATE aspect. Salesforce admitted business activities going down, demand slowing, and growth staggering, however, their stock went higher because they laid off employees, reducing their expenses. On paper, it shows higher margins, and thus, the stock reacted positively. What can become a norm during this economic environment is that we see more companies, especially in the tech industry which saw major lows, employing this technic by raising their stock prices with restructuring and engaging in mass layoffs. My plan of limiting my exposure to risks has not changed. I am holding a majority in cash and short-term government bonds. Looking to increase exposure to my trading in gold when the US 10-Year Real Rates falls from the inverse correlation between the two. Reminder: Higher real yields = expensive to hold gold when compared to other yielding investments such as fixed income, thus the inverse correlation on the charts. This is for personal recording but feel free to comment and argue.
NYSE:CRMShort
by ssavi