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FOMC

$NASDAQ $QQQ $SPY closed near key resistance, FOMC 2pm EST- NASDAQ QQQ and SPY closed near resistance QQQ im looking at $311 daily time frame triple top. - FOMC 25BPS tomorrow 80% chance, need to see in Powell's speech if this is our last hike or we get a pause, also information on the banking situation too. - XLF is going to be key factor tomorrow for SPY's direction, went completely sideways today will break strongly in a direction tomorrow. - i am slightly bearish here since we are right at key resistance but FOMC can change that in an instant, for ex we get a pause after this hike then we are very likely breaking that resistance if that happens i am bullish and going long.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by ArcadiaTrading
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 22/03Share markets continued to press higher as they focus on the coming FOMC interest rate release. Concerns over the banking sector are on the back burner for now and expectations for no rate rise from the US Fed may now be baked into the price action. I expect to see the Fed Reserve raise rates by 25 basis points as they still have to battle higher inflation so we may see a late selloff into the US markets. Asian markets will open stronger to follow on from the European and US sessions. A review of the price action from the European session and the US session where I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
Key Levels and Stocks to Watch Leading Up to FOMC MeetingAs the market anticipates the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, investors are keeping a close eye on key levels and stocks that may experience significant movements. In this article, we will discuss the potential scenarios for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and several prominent stocks, as well as the importance of the FOMC meeting in shaping market momentum. SPX and QQQ: Key Levels to Watch SPX appears to be setting up for a test of the 4000 level, with the potential to run up to 4020 if it can break through the resistance. The FOMC meeting will play a crucial role in determining market direction, so investors should monitor developments closely. Similarly, QQQ is approaching the 309 level, currently up almost 2 points in premarket trading. A break above 309 could lead to a test of the 315 level. As with the SPX, the FOMC meeting will be a key factor in shaping the QQQ's performance. Stocks to Monitor: TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, AMD, META, and MSFT Tesla (TSLA) is poised for a potential move towards 190, with 196 as the next target level. Apple (AAPL) is best positioned if it can maintain support at 157. NVIDIA (NVDA) is setting up for a move towards 269, with premarket trading showing an increase of almost 4 points. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) still has the potential to reach the 100 level. Meta Platforms (META) may experience a 5-point gap up if it can break above 205, with the potential to run up to 213. Microsoft (MSFT) appears somewhat weak at present, with a stronger outlook if it can move through the 276 level. Market Momentum and FOMC Meeting As the market begins to gain momentum on the upside, it is essential for investors to monitor the FOMC meeting's outcome. Ideally, a strong close near the 4000 level for the SPX and 309 for the QQQ would indicate a bullish market environment leading into the FOMC meeting. In anticipation of the FOMC meeting, you should remain vigilant and monitor key levels for the SPX, QQQ, and select individual stocks. The market's momentum leading into the meeting will play a significant role in shaping future trends, so staying informed on the latest developments is critical for successful investment strategies.
SP:SPX
by bitdoctor
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 21st March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Plenty of instability in the market due to the SVB crisis and other banks being heavily affected by it. 2. GOLD, as a safe haven asset, flew to the highs to 2000 and is currently rejecting. 3. This is fuelled by the instability with the USD. Technical Confluences 1. Price could potentially retrace back to the H4 support level at 1959.24 before heading back up. 2. Price went parabolic to the 2000 regions. 3. Bullish pressure is still intact and will be looking for longs. Idea Looking for price to break new highs beyond 2065 and this is just the beginning. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OlympusLab
KRE / XLF / QQQ / SPY Triple Top Resistance into Wednesday FOMC- KRE and XLF still in a bear flag territory, Both are closing in on their tightening range and will break very soon either tomorrow or Wednesday. we will get a lot of volume and volatility once this breaks. - QQQ & SPY have a Triple top resistance, if XLF break bull SPY will very likely break that resistance, so will watching all 4 closely. - FOMC Wednesday 0.25BPS is still around 70% chance, what bulls want to see is Powell saying we are pausing after this hike, Bears want to see more 0.25BPS hikes.
AMEX:KRE
by ArcadiaTrading
$VIX - Something is brewingIn my previous post, I outlined where $SPY rejected off the bear flag resistance. You'll see that those two times correlate with the two times $VIX tested pennant support. With the third VIX retest, we may see $SPY near my gray TL of ~$400 (see related idea linked). I'm still expecting another leg down, and will take a short position if I see optimal R:R (I'll update). No doubt, today was a boring day for $SPY. As I outlined in my update above, staying patient and understanding the right time to execute is what'll get you the W. Good luck!
TVC:VIX
by theapearmy
NZDCAD: GO LONG- WAITING FOR RETEST NZDCAD it’s very clear at this point what the Market is saying price action, so we would be buying immediately we get a retest. This trade is actually a 100% buy due to the trading confluence. The strong short-term increase of NZD/CAD should quickly allow the basic trend to become bullish. As long as the price remains above the support located at 0.8490 CAD, a purchase could be considered. The bullish momentum would be boosted by a break in this resistance. Buyers could then target the resistance located at 0.866 CAD.
Long
by Yurino86
DXY Potential Forecast | 10th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. USD continues to face uncertainty and volatility due to the SVB crisis. 2. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting and the Fed Fund Rate. 3. More dovish on the USD will lead to EURUSD heading higher. 4. Fed might be restricted to hike rates by 50bps due to the instability of the banking industry in the US. Technical Confluences 1. Price rejected off the resistance at 105.3. 2. Price can potentially come lower to reach support level at 102.65. 3. Given the uncertainty and fear, DXY has reason to continue heading down. Idea DXY can tap into the support area at 102.65. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
1
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 20th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. ECB most recently hiked rates by 50bps. 2. USD continues to face uncertainty and volatility due to the SVB crisis. 3. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting and the Fed Fund Rate. 4. More dovish on the USD will lead to EURUSD heading higher. Technical Confluences 1. Support level at 1.0519 where price rejected off. 2. Price can potentially come up to tap into the resistance level on the H4 at 1.0794. 3. Price action continues to be very choppy. Idea EURUSD have further potential for bulls and I am anticipating for price to continue heading up. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab
2
USDJPY: GO SHORTSELL USDJPY ENTRY: 132.25-132.30 STOP LOSS: 134.26 TAKE PROFIT: 126.82 The JPY has been one of the main beneficiaries so far from the loss of confidence in the health of the banking system. While policymakers have taken steps over the past week to address those concerns, it is not yet clear that they are sufficient on their own to quickly restore investor confidence. A further run on deposits and tightening of financial conditions remains a risk that could trigger a deeper sell-off for risk assets. As a result, it will be difficult for the Fed to strike a hawkish tone in the week ahead even though inflation remains uncomfortably high. A decision to delay further hikes until confidence returns in the banking sector could open the door to further downside for USD/JPY in the week ahead, and encourage US rate market participants to speculate that the next move could even be a cut. At the same time, the recently released results from the annual Shunto wage negotiations in Japan could reinforce speculative demand for the JPY in the near-term. The results revealed that Japanese labour unions secured stronger wage agreements for the coming fiscal year. Overall wages are expected to increase by 3.8% and base wages by 2.07%. It is the strongest wage agreements reached since 1993 and could encourage the BoJ to shift away from looser policy in the year ahead. SIMPLE IS BEST
Short
by Yurino86
2
DXY Outlook 20th March 2023Through last week, the DXY traded with significant volatility due to not only the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse but also the slowdown in US inflation growth, with US CPI being released at 6% (Previous: 6.4%). As the downward pressure continues on the DXY, a brief retracement to the upside could be anticipated however, the 23.60 and 38.20 Fibonacci levels are likely to provide strong resistance. Look for the DXY to possibly trade lower toward the 103.50 support level after the current retracement/consolidation. If the price breaks beyond 103.50, the next key support level is at 102.60. Price could trade in a consolidation manner with some choppy action with the FOMC rate decision due this week (25bps rate hike expected)
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
1
Happy CPI day! (AUDUSD Trade idea)Happy CPI day! (AUDUSD Trade idea) Hello...Another day, another trade opportunity! Today we have the CPI, I spoke about banks over the weekend and how they will become under pressure to rates increase, it's part of debt cycle - I will recommend you watch it as well research into what a debt cycle is and what assets get affected. Now, headlines bring in fear, in my person opinion, technically JPM was bearish pattern and it break to down side, that's when I use the classic line ' Trade what you see, not what you think'. Ignoring the noise everyday is key! It wasn't major deal we not going back to 2008! The Feds have improved as time goes by there are tools! That's another aspect you should research into! Now that's all over done with and was sorted on the weekend Sunday evening. Now we did see dollar decline and GBP, EUR, NZD headed higher AUD is lacking the momentum, there are several factors why as we see copper range bound, AUD this week unemployment rate but today we do have CPI which could edge this certain pair either direction. A good set up to trade would be AUDNZD. Estimated to be CPI y/y: 6.0% Banks has there view of it being in-line. Now, if we look at CME rate basis %, the risk of 50 basis point is declining and 25 maybe priced in but for the feds to hike even further that's declining as well. Technically AUD: RANGE for now. Within range, at key trendline resistance a break above I expect 200 EMA to be target areas. If we break below the key support areas of 0.65750 areas then I expect 0.64700 areas. Trade Safe! Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
March FOMC meeting preview – The Fed to soldier on with hikes Times to be aware of: 23 March at 5 am AEDT (6 pm GMT) – Chair Powell’s press conference at 05:30 AEDT While there is much debate around this call, I still think we’re staring at the Fed delivering a 25bp hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Where the risks to the USD are skewed to the long side. It is a call that is certainly being hotly debated and while economists at Nomura see a 25bp rate cut and a pause in QT (Quantitative Tightening), and we see Goldman’s, Wells Fargo and Barclays calling for no change in rates, nearly 90% of economists (polled by Bloomberg) still see a 25bp hike. Most importantly, when we’re thinking of the potential reaction in the USD, gold, and equity markets, is the current market pricing and positioning. The move in interest rate futures or swaps to the FOMC statement is typically the first derivative and it is what the US 2-Year Treasuries and the USD (and other markets) will correlate to – higher yields should equate to a stronger USD, and a lower gold and equity price and vice versa. Market pricing is key At this moment we see interest rate markets pricing 19bp of hikes at this FOMC meeting, so that’s a 75% chance of a 25bp hike. We reach peak pricing of 4.96% by the May FOMC meeting, before falling towards 4.31% by year-end – equating to just over 2 rate cuts. Swaps pricing per meeting - prices correct as of 15 March This interest rate pricing changes dynamically and could look very different in the hours before the meeting. If it weren’t for the news flow and volatility in the banking space, then we’d be arguing about a 25bp or 50bp hike. A 50bp hike is clearly off the table and would be seen as a mistake in the eyes of the market. Of course, Chairman Powell only recently opened the possibility of a 50bp at his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee – but given the brewing risks, a 50bp would shock and risk assets would be punished. As it is we’re debating a 25bp hike or a pause. I think the Fed will acknowledge they’re watching developments in the banking space, but they are far more reactive these days and set policy to what they can see in front of them – and the data supports a 25bp hike. We’ve some cooling in the labour market but it’s still hot. The Feb US CPI print can be sliced and diced to fit any bias, but I see it supporting a 25bp hike, especially if we look at the month-on-month metrics, which have shown acceleration. The Fed focus heavily on core CPI ex-shelter which increased +0.5% MoM, in fitting with a central bank that needs to do more. What are the key drivers of market volatility? When 16bp of hikes are priced, if the Fed hike by 25bp then all things being equal the USD should initially spike higher. If rates are kept unchanged then the USD should fall and equities (like the NAS100) rally. So what they do with the fed funds rate at this meeting is the first consideration. However, perhaps the more lasting impact on markets will come from the ‘dots plot’ projection – this is where the individual Fed members provide their estimates for where the fed funds rate could be by year-end 2023, 2024 and 2025. Fed’s dots and economic projection – December FOMC At the December FOMC meeting the median projection for the fed funds rate by end-2023 was 5.12% and 4.12% for end-2024. However, given market expectations and pricing (in interest rate swaps) are far lower at 4.31% and 3.40% for these periods respectively, there is a clear disconnect. This divergence between the current set of Fed fund projections (‘dots’) and the market pricing suggests the market feels strongly that the Fed will lower its forecasts for the fed funds rate for these dates. Should the Fed fail to do this, and especially if the FOMC statement shows little concern for the issues afoot in the banking sector and the potential for new regulations, with far tighter credit conditions and increased charges for borrowers, then markets could light up with volatility. Conversely, if the market does see the Fed coming sufficiently towards market pricing it could be a very important moment in this cycle – in theory, it should support growth stocks, high beta FX (such as the AUD) crypto and gold, while the USD is sold. However, much depends on the statement and the level of concern expressed as to why they have lowered its projections. The balance of risk My own view is that the Fed will hike by 25bp and fail to lower its ‘dot plot’ projection sufficiently and market pricing will be disappointed – this could potentially lead to a higher USD and drawdown in equity and gold. As always trading over news has its challenges, but for all risk managers will measure where the skew in risk is over key events.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by Pepperstone
SP500 - Targets from here on.We closed above the decending trendline from januari 2022. Many traders are drawing this line wrong ATM to match their bias. Beware. We closed above which is very bullish but many people are saying that we closed BELOW, they try to match this scenario with 2008 and 00. It is not unlikely that we break down under the trendline again, but right now this isnt the case. Here are my shortterm targets for SP500. I wait for the FOMC tomorrow and expecting a pause of the rate hikes because the banking crisis we had last week. A pause will send us up towards 4311. 0.25 hike means neutral and 0.50 will send us down towards 3600. DO NOT trade into FOMC, it is pure gambling, it doesn't matter how "sure" you are. Good luck.
SP:SPX
by WealthNode
1