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5/2 Watchlist + Notes(Short list again today) SPY - We were bullish going into the week/day if you saw my list last night. Got the upside we wanted early on before retreating back to open price. This shows me that we had a neutral/weak day and can expect neutral/weak movement tomorrow. With FOMC wednesday anything can happen, but I expect one more decent 2-3$ move before Wednesday. Neutral candle on the daily, but it isnt failed, so our uptrend is still technically active until we break today's low Watchlist: SQ - Looking to create a compound 3 on the daily if we can break today's low then we target friday's low U - 3-1 Daily ARKK - 3-1 Daily FANG - 2-1 Daily. 50% rule weekly setup. Looking to go long here and create a compound 3 on the weekly Taking a small break from the super detailed watchlists. They will return soon though. Let's make some money again tomorrow. Cheers
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
🔥 Bitcoin Potential Perfect Bearish ChannelAfter a failure to break through the 30,000 resistance three times, it appears that the bulls have given up and the bears took over. When we connect the two local tops and copy that trend line to the bottom, we create a perfectly symmetrical channel. It's unclear whether we're going down all the way to the support line of the channel, but I have to agree that things have started to look more bearish after we topped at 31,000. With the FOMC interest meeting around the corner, we have to consider the idea that Powell will announce that he won't cut the raise, and potentially even raise more in the future, leading to a bearish reaction. Time will tell.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
5
$SPY - Pivotal Week ⚠️ AMEX:SPY experienced a significant sell-off at the beginning of the past week, followed by a strong bounce near YTD highs. Undeniably, technicals appear bullish due to the strong bounce, particularly with TVC:VIX volatility subdued. However, given the upcoming #FOMC and NASDAQ:AAPL ER, I'm watching for volatility to resist further suppression. This pivotal week will help determine the future price direction. The momentum we saw at the end of the week does not imply a bullish cycle, and it may continue to shake out bears as it crosses the key level around 415. A potential reversal could occur at the YTD high (near 417), especially with FOMC around the corner. This scenario isn't guaranteed, but I would caution on taking long positions at these levels. Watching for higher price discovery to offer a better risk-to-reward setup to ride into sell strength.
AMEX:SPY
by theapearmy
Dancing on the Ceiling In recent days, a variety of technology stocks have surged as a result of robust earnings reports. Microsoft's impressive cloud and AI performance have been particularly noteworthy, leading to a ~8% increase in its stock value. The company was on the verge of breaking its single-day record for market capitalization growth. In contrast, cryptocurrency markets have experienced a far more substantial upswing than equities over the past few days. Bitcoin has once again spearheaded the crypto rally, as expectations for future rate hikes dropped substantially due to continuing cracks in the regional banking system. However, this time, the change in the narrative was triggered by a larger-than-anticipated decline in deposits for First Republic (FRC), which has inflicted severe damage on FRC’s balance sheet and will be difficult to overcome. On Tuesday, FRC's stock plunged by about 49%, followed by another 25% drop on Wednesday morning. In other news, the ongoing U.S. debt ceiling crisis presents a compelling and potentially precarious situation that warrants close attention. Earlier in January, the U.S. government reached its borrowing limit and has since relied on "extraordinary measures" to manage its cash flow due to the absence of new treasury issuances. As a result, the Treasury's cash balance has been steadily decreasing this year, and financial markets are becoming increasingly concerned as funds are expected to run out by June, potentially leading the government to default on its debt obligations. This scenario merits close monitoring, as evidence suggests that a technical default could trigger contagion effects, which, in a worst-case scenario, could potentially double the U.S. unemployment rate to around 7%. Furthermore, a divided Congress will make raising the debt ceiling particularly challenging for Democrats unless compromises are reached. Market apprehensions are evident in soaring credit default swap spreads—an indicator of the cost to protect against a U.S. government default—as well as the spread between 1-month and 3-month Treasury Bill yields (approximately 3.4% vs around 5.1%) widening. Recently investors have sought 1-month Treasury Bills that mature before the predicted exhaustion of government funds, causing the price of 1-month Bills to rise and their yield to fall. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has experienced a minor pullback from its local top of around HKEX:31 ,000 and has since tested the 50-day moving average before regaining some bullish momentum. In the event of another pullback, traders will likely watch for the 50-day moving average to serve as support once again. MA9 and MA50 are also beginning to converge, with a potential crossing of MA9 below MA50 imminent. This would be a bearish signal. When MA9 previously crossed above MA50, Bitcoin gained significant momentum, underscoring the importance of a potential crossing of MA9 below MA50. Looking ahead, key dates to monitor include May 3rd and 4th, when the upcoming FOMC meeting is scheduled. The Federal Reserve has already hinted at a further 25 basis point hike, which the market has likely priced in. Nonetheless, exercising caution is advisable, as the Fed may take unexpected actions during this meeting.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Coinrule
M2 Money Supply versus Global Net LiquidityM2 is getting a lot of attention, but is it really driving markets? M2 is the Federal Reserve's estimate of the total money supply including all cash hand, money deposited in checking accounts, savings accounts, and other short term savings. The rate of change for M2 over the past 3 years has been the steepest incline and decline in the M2 rate of change in history. However, global net liquidity, which is driven by fractional reserve banking and credit expansion from cycling credit between central banks and the private sector, as far greater impact on markets and is more strongly correlated than M2. In the fall of 2021 the Federal Reserve announced the end of quantitative and monetary easing, marking the top of the market for risk assets. Other central banks followed suit and interest rates increases and liquidity tightening started in the beginning of 2022. This contraction is highlighted in the red box in the center of the chart. The white line in the center marks the liquidity bottom that we observed in the fall of 2022 which also marks the bottom for risk assets. The green box highlights the expansion in liquidity that begins immediately after with a correlated and coincident rise in risk assets. Note that M2 has continued to contract and interest rates hikes have continued during this time. Michael Howell regularly tweets timely and insightful updates on global liquidity. I highly recommend following him @crossbordercap twitter.com Thank you to Codi0 and to dharmatech for their work on the liquidity indicators. These are fantastic editions to macroeconomic and monetary analysis.
SP:SPX
by Ben_1148x2
GBPUSD - D/4H Technical Analysis Hi traders! I'm excited to share with you a detailed video analysis of GBPUSD on the Daily and 4H timeframe ahead of the CPI news for the USD. While on the Daily TF, we're experiencing a bearish trend, we recently reached an important OB area which could indicate a possible 4H drop or pullback that may push the price down soon. However, it's important to note that there is still a possibility for a 4H bullish impulse that could break the recent top. For now, our focus will be on the sell setups. I want to remind you to trade with caution and avoid trading during the news event. If you happen to get a sell setup, try taking it after the news has cooled down a bit. Also, keep an eye out in the comment section as we will keep you updated with our analysis. Keep up the great work and happy trading!
Short
by financialflagship
EURUSD Bear Flag PatternHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring EURUSD around 1.09884 zone, The bear flag pattern is a continuation pattern that typically occurs after a significant downtrend, signaling a potential continuation of the bearish trend. In this case, the pattern is forming around the 1.09 zone on the EUR/USD currency pair, indicating a potential sell opportunity. So technically we will wait for a breakout and watch a potential retrace from 1.093 support and resistance zone. Fundamentally USD data seems to be bullish with recent feds comments including Fed Waller about the inflation concerns, Fed Williams have mentioned too that Fed Powell should hike rates in the next FOMC early May which have triggered some Dollar strength. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
9
DXY Potential Forecast | Unemployment Claims | 20th April 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Unemployment Claims comes out at 245k compared to a 240k forecasted. 2. This highlights a worsening labour market and a potential sign that of recession in the US. 3. This is bearish on the USD and we could see potential bearish continuations in the market. Technical Confluences 1. Near-term resistance at 102.09. 2. Price rejected this H4 resistance level and we could potentially see price head further down to break the structural low at 100.79. Idea Looking for price to continue heading bearish to the level at 100.79. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
Vix sitting at key levelI forsee rates continuing to increase. Banking to continue having a hard time, the value of the dollar to get stronger, and the price of equities to decrease due to less attractive opportunity costs vs bonds. I think a lot of people are not expecting this, and instead were expecting the fed to pause and for a bull market to begin. I think that equities will be re adjusted quite rapidly, and this will cause the vix to spike. Therefore, I am long the vix.
TVC:VIXLong
by International_Leeroy
USDJPY Outlook 13 April 2023The USDJPY trades along the 133 support level and could see further downside as the DXY continues to weaken. However with the continual divergence in monetary policy between the US Federal Reserve and the BoJ, a rebound to the upside is likely to always be on the cards. If the USDJPY breaks strongly below 133 (and more crucially below 132.70) the price could trade down to 132. Looking for a possible test and rebound from the 132 round number support level
Short
by JinDao_Tai