Get started

FOMC

A look back and forward to w/c 18th September #TradewithDaveIn the latest #TradewithDave update we consider some of this week’s big events, and take a look at what’s happening in the week beginning 18th September. US inflation We had the latest updates on US inflation in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Producer Price Index (PPI). While mixed overall, both reports showed some upside surprises, with Headline year-on-year CPI and month-on-month PPI both coming in hotter than expected. Despite fears that higher inflation could lead to the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates further, all the major US stock indices have continued to rally. In addition, the probability that the US Federal Reserve will announce ‘no change’ to its key Fed Funds rate this coming Wednesday barely moved. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there’s a 97% chance that the upper band will remain at 5.50%. We also had the ARM IPO, the biggest initial public offering in two years. The shares were priced at $51 each, valuing the company at $54 billion. It was considered a great success as the stock rallied 25% to close at $63.59 on the first day of trading. Tesla – rubber hits the road again Tesla rallied sharply on Monday, ending the session up 10% following an upgrade from Morgan Stanley. Tesla has recovered substantially this year following a drastic sell-off in 2022 on the back of the US Federal Reserve’s programme of aggressive rate hikes. But it suffered a sharp reversal between mid-July and mid-August. Since then, it appears to have found its footing once again. It is up 170% so far this year, trading above $270 per share. But this remains well below the all-time high of $418 hit in November 2021. Check out Tesla… Talking of cars… The US auto sector is in focus as negotiations between major manufacturers Ford, General Motors and Stellantis and the UAW union appear to have broken down. Tensions between the two sides have been mounting as the switch to Electric Vehicles (EVs) has dramatically changed manufacturing priorities. In particular, the move away from making and installing internal combustion engines, in favour of large battery packs. This has resulted in a reliance on battery factories which tend to be ununionized. At the time of writing, around 13,000 workers across all three auto companies have gone on strike. Without a rapid settlement, this has the potential to contribute to a sizeable hit to US growth. Ford and General Motors are both down around 19% since early July, while Stellantis has lost around 10% over the past two months. Check out Ford… Apple suffers a setback Along with many tech stocks, Apple has made back a significant proportion of the fall in its share price during 2022. It rose around 60% from the beginning of this year to mid-July, when it hit a fresh record high around $198, before pulling back sharply over the following month. We then saw it rally again into early September before it slumped 8.5% in two days. This followed reports from the Wall Street Journal that China had banned the use of iPhones by central government officials. The news was denied this week by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning. But the White House said they were following events with concern, and that China’s actions appear to be ‘aggressive and inappropriate corporate retaliation. Apple doesn’t disclose iPhone sales by country, but research firm TechInsights estimates that there were more iPhone sales in China than in the US last quarter. Despite this pull-back in the share price, Apple remains the largest company in the world by market capitalisation. Check out Apple… 🔸 Looking ahead to next week Keeping an eye on ARM The ARM IPO has been hailed as a sign that the new listings market is bursting back to life after a difficult year in 2022. Indeed, several other companies have announced their intentions to go public including the grocery delivery company Instacart, marketing data concern Klavigo and posh sandal-maker Birkenstock. There are now hopes that the IPO market will really take off in 2024. Central Banks Other important events next week include the release of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last monetary policy meeting, CPI updates from the Eurozone, Canada and the UK, and interest rate decisions from the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank. The US Federal Reserve But the biggest event in the calendar by far is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting which concludes on Wednesday evening. As noted previously, the probability of no change in interest rates stands at 97%. However, this is the first FOMC meeting since July when the Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points. It’s also a quarterly meeting which means we’ll see the release of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. This is where individual members of the FOMC provide their forecasts for inflation, the Fed Funds rate, GDP and unemployment for the rest of this year and beyond. Everyone will be looking for any changes from the last summary in June to provide clues to the Fed’s thinking. Could they now signal that they have raised rates enough, or will they once again caution that inflation could rise again? On top of this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell also hold a press conference which may give further insight into the Fed’s frame of mind.
SP:SPX
by TradeNation
USDJPY Bearish swing trade Hi traders, USDJPY has been bearish since last month after rejecting on a major resistance, we waited for a pullback to enter. Our pullback is almost complete. We now expect the USDJPY to continue plummeting from this price to meet our trendline on the monthly timeframe. Disclaimer NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
Short
by Mezzoforte_Privilege
📈MY TAKE ON THE FED, INFLATION AND CREDIT📊 TLDR: I think the price increase we are seeing is not inflation, the economy is going from bad to worse and the FED's actions don't make any sense. At the peak of the great inflation of the 70s in USA while both long and short term interest rates were going up together with inflation, so was the aggregate credit. In fact loans to businesses were growing faster than inflation. Whereas now, while the short term rates are going up the aggregate credit is going down. Businesses aren’t borrowing and the banks aren’t lending. And as it was established by Milton Friedman, inflation is exclusively a MONETARY phenomenon. Therefore price increase followed by unchanged or decreased aggregate credit in not inflation. Which is exactly what we are seeing right now. It might be attributed to the ongoing effects of the Covid era supply shock which created long lasting bottlenecks, the war in Ukraine or some other fundamental systemic economic problem but it’s not conventional inflation which means that raising interest rates will do nothing but further damage the already weak economy (which is reflected in the unprecedented drop in demand for credit) So, the further rate hikes that were hinted yesterday by the FED don’t make any sense and we should be expecting a fast race to the zero with more QE when the economic sh*t hits the political fan. But, let’s wait and see.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TopTradingSignals
4
FOMC minutes to weigh on elevated DXY?The FOMC kept the door open for the possibility of additional rate hikes in July following its last decision to hike. While the Fed prefers to retain optionality, some expect that July's was the last rate hike of the tightening cycle. If the minutes reflect policy discussions among Fed officials are entertaining the possibility of pausing going forward, then with the DXY that is pretty elevated on hawkish sentiment, will it flip today?
TVC:DXY
by Ross-J-Burland
BluetonaFX - DYX Focus now on US Dollar with FOMCHi Traders! With the FOMC Minutes Meeting later today, traders will be eagerly awaiting their latest stance on the inflation issues in the US. The dollar index is near its 6-week resistance level of 103.572, and looking at the price action on the chart, it looks bullish; however, there are signs of a possible reversal. The market is currently in an ascending price channel with higher highs and higher lows, and to continue this, the 103.572 resistance level must be broken. If there is a break above 103.572, then we have another resistance level at 104.714, which is the May 2023 high. If 103.572 does not hold, the chart pattern will turn into a double top pattern, which is a reversal, and there is support at 101.921. Further down, there is another support level at 99.578. Please remember to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
TVC:DXY
by BluetonaFX
2
SPY Levels - CGG Newsletter 08/13-18/2023Upside: 448.06 → 448.92 → 450.48 → 451.70 → 453.07 Downside 443.97 → 442.97 → 441.98 → 441.08 → 439.46 Technical Analysis: Since making yearly lows in March, SPY has been in a larger uptrend channel, with its last higher high peaking in July. Since making this high SPY has made a downwards channel on the daily inside the larger upwards chanel, and looks to make a higher high soon on the green uptrend line. A great spot for it to bounce is coming soon. With any sign of weakness, SPY looks ready to fillthe samll gap it made from July 11-12, which should be filled at 442.97. Under this gap we have the long GP from 441.08-441.98 along with a strong daily level at 441.21. I would look to go long in this area. If we get a bounce we will look to see if we can break over last week's high of 451.70. If we can reclaim some bullish momentum, I would expect us to test the gap above (453.52-455.49), or at least get close as we have the SHORT GP from 453.29-453.81 we can target to the upside for bulls. Failure to hold above 441.21 changes my macro view, and I would flip bearish, but my general lean is bullish going into next thursday's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
AMEX:SPYLong
by peterjames_6
USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵 - Breakout imminentHi Traders, at USDJPY we are close before a massive long breakout. But for sure we have to watch the economic data.... WEEKLY FUNDAMENTALS 🗓 Watch out the Economic Calender for week 33/2023 👀… ℹ️Important economic data: Tuesday: Retail Sales 🇺🇸 Wednesday: RBNZ Interest rate decision🇳🇿, FOMC minutes 🇺🇸 Thursday: Philly FED Index 🇺🇸 Friday: CPI EU 🇪🇺 FOMC Minutes this week 🇺🇸🇺🇸 Before markets start turning their attention to the Fed’s annual get together in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at the end of the month, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes from the central bank’s July policy meeting. The FED raised rates by 25 basis points last month and left the door open to another hike in September. The minutes will help investors gauge the appetite for further rate increases, although markets are betting on a pause in September. Data last week showed that while U.S. consumer and producer prices increased moderately in July the overall trend indicated that inflationary pressures are easing. The U.S. central bank has increased interest rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022 to bring inflation back down to its 2% goal. Chart USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵 If the market will break through the resistance at 145.000 there will be likely a lot of short stops liquidated which might cause another long movement. Wish you all a great trading week! Team tegsasFX
Long
by tegasFX
USDCAD complete guide! LONG-TERM Buyers around 1.3500 were in great loss previously! psychologically most of them will close their long orders around the place they have entered! Shorter term buyers seen their SL hit! The broken OB- was a great liquidity hunt trap for traders with small SL. NOTE: FOMC members Bowman and Harker speaks could have almost small effect on market. follow it if a game changer speaks, if you hear a surprise in favor of the dollar's strength, either cancel this trade or proceed with less risk. We will start trading both at these prices and in the specified zone before and after Bowman's speech
Short
by AliSignals
2
Crunch time for DXY - Big Day Friday!I never trade DXY but I always have a tab open, I find this really useful when trading many pairs. My current take on the Fed and the US economy is: They were the first to respond to growing inflation Their tightening has led to interest rates of 5.5% (only matched by BNZ) They've hawkishly indicated more hike(s) Consumer confidence numbers this week were strong, in spite of this Jobless claims continue to beat target GDP for June smashed target (2.4% up from 2%, despite forecasted reduction to 1.8%) Inflation is now 2.97%, really low compared to others It's looking very much like a soft landing Whilst at the same time: ECB interest rate held at 4.25% with inflation at 6.4% BoJ interest rate held at -0.1% with inflation at 3.3% Swiss inflation is 1.7% with interest rates at 1.75% BOA interest rate held at 4.1% with inflation at 6% BNZ interest rate held at 5.5% with inflation 6.7% BoE decision this week, currently 5%, +0.25% priced in, but Dovish talk and highest inflation (7.95%) So, I can't fail to see positive fundamentals from the USA, in comparison with almost everyone else? I also think that because they moved fast and got a grip of things, unlike anyone else, they can still afford to hike without screwing their economy, unlike BoE and BNZ for instance who I believe are heading into big recessions - high interest will get to a point where it's as harmful as high inflation and will make the situation worse for the economy. That all said, until the news this week, DXY has been on huge downtrend from it's highs, and it will take something special to break through the descending trendline around 102. If it breaks this could be the start of a reversal if positively retested. Like I say I don't trade DXY, but I've learned to always have it in my sights, you have to be mindful of big DXY shifts as it has an impact on many other crosses (not just USD ones). For instance the big move this week with the Thursday data had a huge effect across the board, fortunately I was expecting it... We have a big indecision doji candle for Friday, however, off the back of last week being positive for the USD and negative for other currencies that make up the basket, I do think the dollar will court the trendline for this week, and we'll probably see a false breakout! On the 4hr I'm seeing short term bullishness, bounce up off the 50% fib for the last bullish move: Whatever, Friday will be a huge day, with NFP and Average Earnings released - I'm expecting DXY will have dropped back a bit by then, I'm expecting good data on Friday, but I don't think it will matter, good or bad it will lure us into a false sense of security and DXY will bounce down, hard with bad data, less so with good data, but regardless - I can't see it punching through on this juncture. As always this is just an opinion, let's see what happens!
TVC:DXYShort
by Finchcliffe