GOLD → Is further decline possible? What is going on?OANDA:XAUUSD is in a correction phase. The global trend on the chart is bearish. There are several preconditions for a possible further fall. What is going on and what to expect from the price?
We see a breakout of the global price channel and the formation of an upward correction. I drew a local support line to make the situation clear. Price breaks support after a strong resistance area appears on the chart. The bears increase volumes and start to pressure the market.
On the daily timeframe we see an attempt to break the uptrend. The price forms a correction to the resistance area. The correction may confirm the market's intentions, after which the price will start to fall, but for that we need confirmations. That might be a breakout of supports 1920 and 1912, in which case the price will head towards 1893, which will be a retest of support - a signal for a further breakout.
Support levels: 1920, 1912
Resistance levels: 1926, previously broken support, 1933
I expect a retest of 1920 with a possible breakout as the bears increase their activity. A retest of 1912 will form a breakout attempt, which could also be successful. I wait for the decrease.
Regards R. Linda!
FLAT
EURGBP → The market is getting ready to continue falling FX:EURGBP is forming a counter-trend correction to increase liquidity and accumulate potential for a possible further decline. The trend is bearish and now there are signals that could continue the trend
Note the local uptrend channel. This is most likely a correction on the background of a bearish trend. Price can't go down all the time, so the market needs to make these maneuvers.
The price broke through the support of the correction, we expect the price consolidation.
At the moment, the support of the ascending channel and the level of 0.85412 plays a key role. Consolidation below these areas will form entry points for possible sales. The moving averages have moved towards resistance. Impulse is forming.
Support levels: 0.85412
Resistance levels: the earlier broken through channel boundary, MA50, 0.86000, MA200
I expect continuation of falling after the price consolidation under the specified levels. Most likely, the trend will continue.
Regards, R.Linda!
GOLD → The limit level of 1920 pushes the price up OANDA:XAUUSD strengthens to 1931 and reaches its local target. The resulting pullback forms a strong limit area formed by buyers 1920. What could this lead to?
Locally, I expect the price to rise to the local targets and liquidity zones, as the price cannot fall all the time. Such zones are: 1933, 1935, 1939
The daily technical analysis points us to a break of the uptrend and the formation of a correction. The trend correction can confirm the break and after the retest of one of the key resistance levels, which is 1935-1939, the market can activate the volume bears and the price will continue the implementation of the trend breakout.
At the moment we are interested in the resistance area of the range. The price may reach it in the near future and then we will follow the price reaction to this area. Here is a likely scenario:
Support levels: 1920, 1912
Resistance levels: 1933, 1935, 1939
I am expecting growth this week, but in the long term I will consider a fall, as TA on D1 is pointing this way
Regards R. Linda!
C98USDT → Realization of accumulated potential BINANCE:C98USDT enters the phase of realization of the accumulated potential. A prolonged trend may change its direction, but in order to do that the bulls will have to take the priority in their hands.
Global and local wedge are marked on the chart. The resistance boundaries of the figures coincide and the price breaks the area, consolidation is formed in the green zone and C98 starts to form a bullish momentum.
For the buyers, the resistance at 0.1751 is important at the moment. If the price breaks through and fixes above this area, the cryptocurrency pair can form a bullish momentum. Resistance at 0.3258 will be the priority target in this case.
Lately bitcoin is strengthening and forming consolidation of 30000-31000. A breakout of resistance will also give momentum to altcoins.
Support levels: MA-50, 0.1540, 1.1209
Resistance levels: 0.1751
I expect the retest to 0.1751, which might end up with a breakout of resistance and in this case the price will continue growing. I am interested in the target of 0.3258 and 0.5750.
Regards R.Linda!
Bitcoin - Huge crash soon! Retest is required (wedge)
The price of Bitcoin recently pumped from the falling wedge pattern with a very strong impulse wave. But the problem is that because of that, we have an unfilled FV GAP on a previous breakout point, and the price tends to go back and retest it. Usually, when patterns break, the price tends to go back and retest them!
In this case, we can completely retest the wedge at the trendline (which will be a deep retracement) or retest the breakout point of the wedge and fill the FB GAP. In the confluence, we have the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the impulse wave, giving us a pretty good long trade with a solid risk-to-reward ratio.
We are going to go down sooner or later; the probability of it is actually very high. But there is also a chance of going higher to 32399 first to take the liquidity above the previous swing high from 2022 before retesting the wedge!
It was a huge pump, and buying or speculating on price increases is very risky. I would not do that at all, so rather prepare your shorts at higher prices or at confirmation of the downtrend!
From the Elliott Wave perspective, I can already see a completed impulse wave that screams for a retracement. The trendline of the impulse wave is broken, and we could definitely go down next week!
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
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💱USDCAD - A reversal pattern and a trend changeUSDCAD breaks the downtrend and forms a reversal pattern. Good potential for strengthening of the currency pair begins to appear
TA on high timeframe:
1) On d1 the situation is complicated. Consolidation is formed inside the channel 0.91200 - 0.88595.
2) It is acceptable to buy if the consolidation is above the level of 1.32600 or above the base of the pattern H&S.
TA on the low timeframe:
1) A local bottom of 1.31200 is formed, to which price reacts in a "rally" format
2) Resistance is broken and after the channel resistance is retested, the price retests 1.32600.
3) Breakout and consolidation of 1.32600 will form a counter-trend entry point into a long position. In this case there is a chance to strengthen to 1.3383
Key support📉: 1.3206, 1.3177
Key resistance📈: 1.32600
GOLD → Breaking the trend on Friday, BUT...OANDA:XAUUSD market is still bearish. Breaking through the resistance of the descending channel may not play a key role. The price is in a global wedge and we see a bounce forming from support.
On Friday, we saw a strong rally that many did not expect. The price was bullish on the inflation related news. Looking at the technical picture some things might become clear.
Pay attention to the D1 chart below. A global wedge is forming. At the moment the market is still in a consolidation phase in a downtrend format.
The retest of the wedge resistance is forming. At the moment, there are no prerequisites for the price to break the resistance of the wedge in the area of 1935-1939.
Breaking through this area will form a strong momentum that will start to strengthen the price.
At the moment there is a high probability of price fall from resistance. Consolidation may continue.
The Fed is not going to cut rates, therefore, the strengthening of the dollar after a small correction may continue, and gold may fall in the medium term.
Support levels: 1912
Resistance levels: 1920, 1938
I expect a correction to the support and possible strengthening of the price to the resistance. If the price breaks through 1912, it will head towards the area of 1902.
Regards to R.Linda!
CVNA - EXPANDED OR RUNNING FLATPreviously, I had put a rather bold prediction calling a shot term top when CVNA first hit the $28.50 price range.
Obviously, you cannot make a full prediction on how a correctional will play out, the most common of which are A-B-C setups. This is setup to be an expanded or running type of flat correctional.
Based on the key trend-line we have yet to test, my money would be on some form of long-drawn out running flat on the come-down followed by a decent surge once bears fail to take it down below the lower $21 price range.
XLMUSDT - Breaking through bearish trend resistanceBINANCE:XLMUSDT forms the bottom, relative to which the price develops positive dynamics. After testing 0.0758, a rally is formed and the price makes a retest of the trend resistance.
As we can see, a three-day accumulation is formed in relation to the resistance. The market is obviously ready to continue rising, but in order to do that the price needs to overcome the resistance.
The resistance at 0.1035 is worth mentioning. The bulls may fight hard for this level and if they manage to hold this area, the coin will show a good result in the middle term, because the level of 0.1035 is the range support, whereas the resistance and the target for the price may be the upper boundary at 0.1305.
Support levels: 0.0959 and 0.0987.
Resistance levels: upper trendline, 0.1035, 0.1130
I expect a confident bullish position above the level of 0.1035. An indicator for this will be consolidation above the level. Medium-term perspective - growth up to 0.1305.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → The bears are quite strong in the market. Falling furtherOANDA:XAUUSD forms another bearish range of 1912-1985. The price is descending in steps in the channel, which indicates a strong dominance of sellers in the market. What do you want to see next?
After the false breakdown of the support 1895, the market tries to buyback the fall and it succeeds. The price makes a retest of the resistance 1912. Another false breakdown is formed, but this time it is resistance.
On the schedule is clearly seen a bearish trend, which coincides on H1, D1 and W1.
The fundamental background is negative. The Fed is discussing a further rate hike, which may strengthen the dollar and weaken gold.
The price is again testing the local support at 1902. If the level is broken through, the price will head towards 1895 and then maybe towards 1890.
Resistance levels: 1910, 1912 and 1924.
Support levels: 1902, 1895
I expect the price will continue falling down against the bearish trend after breaking through 1902 or 1895. Resistance levels are strong enough and will not let the price through.
Regards to R.Linda!
USDCAD → Realization of a symmetric triangle on W1FX:USDCAD on W1 demonstrates exiting a symmetrical triangle downwards. A correction or rebound from downtrend support is forming. What to expect from the price in the near term?
The price forms a bearish price channel and after another retest of the trend support the currency pair forms a rebound to the resistance area 1.32697-1.33171. There is a high probability that the price will not break this area and after consolidation and a break of the limit support level 1.32400 will continue its fall to 1.31214.
The market is controlled by the bears, the medium-term potential is 1.28000
The 200-hour moving average acts as resistance and supports the upper boundary of the channel; the 50-hour is support, but probably not for long.
Resistance levels: 1.32697, 1.33171, MA-200
Support levels: 1.32400, MA-50
I expect the fall from the resistance area will continue. Realization of the global pattern, which is able to send the price to 1.28000, is forming.
Regards R.Linda!
GOLD - Negative fundamentals are bad for the price OANDA:XAUUSD forms a new local low and then makes a retest. The bearish scenario continues, which tells us that gold will continue to red, unless, of course, the fundamental backdrop takes the opposite direction.
The phase of realization of the accumulated potential is forming.
When the support of the 1939 range is broken, there is a new downtrend in a channel format. On the chart we see the downtrend range, the price clearly observes the limits and on Wednesday it forms a new local low of 1902. On Thursday we see the return of the price to the retest of the support. Hence, there is a possibility of a breakout of 1902 and further declines.
Either the bears are strong or the fundamental background is influencing the bulls.
The moving averages are showing a strong downtrend.
Support levels: 1902, 1895
Resistance levels: 1912, channel resistance, 1928, SMA200
Since the chart gives us plenty of bearish suggestion, I will continue to hold the view that price will continue to fall. Pay attention to D1, price is only in the middle of the range, the target could be support 1800
Regards, R. Linda!
GOLD → Price is testing 1912 support for a breakout OANDA:XAUUSD is preparing for further declines. Bears on the basis of negative fundamentals are not going to give up. Another retest of support is forming, which increases the probability of further downside
Closing of the daily candlestick on Tuesday is very close to the indicated level of 1912.5. The retest is formed - the market checks the support area. Price starts to consolidate below the local bearish resistance and near the level of 1912.5.
Based on the technical analysis we see a very high probability to break through the support (a deep false breakout is possible). But we consider support at 1895 as a medium-term target. But again, if today's news affect the gold prices and if the resistance is broken through, we might see an increase to the upper boundary of the range.
The moving averages are pointing to a global stop and an attempt to change the bullish trend.
Support levels: 1912.5, 1895.5
Resistance levels: 1917, 1920.
The retest gives a strong signal. For this reason, on the background of the falling market, I expect a breakout of the key support with a further decline to 1895.
Regards to R. Linda!
ETHUSD → implementation of distribution. Target 2300BITSTAMP:ETHUSD has been showing a swell in the last few days. The price is out of the key range. The bullish set-up is working 100% and price is breaking resistance. What to expect from ethereum next?
For a long time, the coin formed a wedge pattern, which ended with the price forming a rally after a false break of global trend support and the SMA-200 and breaking not only the wedge resistance, but the trend line and the 1846.5 level.
A consolidation above this support area will consolidate the bulls' position and continue to shape the move.
Within the price channel, we have an implied target - the resistance area of 2300. Most likely, in the medium term, we should expect growth towards this mark.
Support levels: rising support line, previously broken wedge boundary, 1846.5 level
Resistance levels: 1920, 2021
Consolidation lasted about 45 days, the distributive phase after consolidation may last for 15 days. I expect that in the mid-term we might see a breakthrough of the local resistances and strengthening of the price to 2300
Regards to R. Linda!
Bitcoin - Profit target for the next bull run + 32% crash soon!
Of course, I am still bearish on Bitcoin, and we are going to hit 20,500 or 17,000 this year. But before it happens, we can go as high as 33,000 because there is a lot of liquidity to be taken.
I started to be bearish around 30k a few months ago, and nothing changed in my outlook. But I think 6k and 10k are not possible anymore because Bitcoin proved its strength and the uptrend transformed from a corrective wave into an impulse wave, which is definitely something we cannot ignore in our next trades.
A 32% or 40% crash later this year, most likely in September or October, is very possible, and I am expecting this scenario to happen. I prefer a bearish scenario over a bullish one this year, and I do not see any crazy pumps to 35k, 40k, or even higher.
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Now the question is, How far can Bitcoin go in the next bullish cycle? My technical analysis shows around 100,000 USD. We have a huge ascending parallel channel on the LOG weekly scale that you can see on this chart. It has already had five touches, and it started in 2017. What's more, if we take the Fibonacci extension from the start of the previous bull market to the end of the previous bull market and to the end of the previous bear market, the 0.618 FIB extension is right at 104,000 USD.
Seriously, please do not expect Bitcoin to hit 300k or 1 million in the next few years; the market cap would be insane if this happened.
In the short term, I am pretty neutral because Bitcoin could reach 33K or also start a big crash. At this point, we need more confirmation, so I prefer to trade altcoins at this moment and wait for BTC. I trade over 200 futures pairs, and I have a lot of opportunities everywhere.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
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GOLD → Symmetrical triangle on a falling trend OANDA:XAUUSD continues to form a sideways range of 1938 - 1912. But if you look closely, we see a symmetrical triangle on the downtrend. What can happen to the price?
The triangle can affect price both bearishly and bullishly. If sellers hold resistance, price will move to the lower boundary of the pattern - the chance of further declines will increase. But if the price breaks the resistance of the triangle, it will go to 1938, the chance that the price will break 1938 is not high enough.
We have a strong bearish trend and resistance levels play a key role.
In the medium term I expect price to fall to 1912-1900.
Resistance levels: upper limit of triangle, 1933, SMA200, 1938
Support levels: 1928, 1922, lower boundary of the triangle
I expect a resistance retest, but since the bears are quite strong at the moment and the fundamentals are not so good, I expect a fall to 1912 - 1900
Regards R. Linda!
NEARUSDT → Double bottom and range breaking BINANCE:NEARUSDT forms several key setups which are quite strong prerequisites for further growth. What to expect from the price?
A double bottom is forming at the level of 1.229. The formation period is 7 months. Price is accumulating a huge amount of energy during this period while a range (consolidation) of 1.229-2.596 is forming.
At the same time the price breaks the resistance of the descending wedge. In that case, if the bulls hold their positions above the previously broken line, we will see a rise to the upper boundary of the range in the medium term. A breakout of 2.596 will take the price to 3.361.
The moving averages are still as resistance, but MA-50 has been tested and may be broken soon.
Support levels: the previously broken range boundary, the level of 1.229
Resistance levels: MA-50, 1.800, MA-200
I expect predictable reaction from the bulls. A consolidation above the previously broken line will form an entry point to long positions, and after that I will wait for an increase to resistances.
Regards R.Linda!
CADCHF → Formation of a pre-breakout consolidationFX:CADCHF is preparing for the continuation of the uptrend. The price within the ascending price channel is forming a consolidation against the resistance 0.68220. What to expect from the price?
The chart clearly shows a bullish trend. The market is interested in the resistance at 0.68220, which the sellers are defending so strongly. If the price breaks through that area, it might continue rising, and the CHF-CAD will continue going down.
The moving averages show that the market is ready to exit the consolidation. At the same time, the indicator acts as support. The nearest target, which the price can strive for, is the resistance at 0.69312 level.
Support levels: SMA-50, trend support, 0.67194
Resistance levels: 0.68030, 0.68220
I expect the consolidation aimed at breaking the resistance will break the level in the nearest future. After the breakdown of the level I will be waiting for the strengthening of the currency pair to the upper boundary of the trend.
Regards, R.Linda!
GOLD → Breakthrough of the global trend support. 1800? OANDA:XAUUSD last week motivated us to keep a close eye on the trend support and the Triangle Beak pattern. A break of the support breaks the base of the trend, but there is still no confirmation, we only see the primary phase. What to expect from the price?
A breakout of the trend base forms quite a strong bearish momentum. Earlier, the broken level was also tested, but the false-break format did not give any result, Price is closing in the red zone on the daily and weekly timeframe.
If the bears can hold below 1939, 1925 or even below 1907, they have an excellent corridor to move down towards the 1800 area.
Pay attention to the 1907 - 1808 range. We have a void on volume and with the support levels, price could "fly" down.
There is a lot of important news coming out this coming week, it is worth keeping an eye on the press releases and considering the news in your trading:
I expect bearish scenarios to develop in the coming week. Preliminarily, the Fed is not going to cut rates, they will either hold or increase. There is a crisis in the countries against the background of geopolitical reasons; there are quite a lot of disputable nuances related to inflation in the West. In general, we have a rather complicated situation. Analysts shout about the U.S. recession, it is possible that the price of gold will go down deliberately, but again, everything is just a rumor.
Regards R. Linda!
Bitcoin - Plan for the next 6 months! (strategy)
Bitcoin is pumping, but buying at the current price is not worth it at all. I have been talking about the 10k, 15k, or 20k (unfilled CME gap) for a long time. Usually, summer is choppy, followed by September and October, which are generally very bearish months for Bitcoin.
Of course, I am not here to immediately FOMO into Bitcoin, and I do not recommend anyone do it. You can take a look at altcoins; they are extremely bearish, and since I have been bearish for 3 months, they have crashed by 50% or 70%. Just take a look, for example, at MATIC or Cardano.
I do not have any Bitcoin because timing is important when it comes to investments. The most efficient way is to buy Bitcoin around 20k later this year and ride the third impulse wave to the upside. I expect a huge ABC correction to be triggered soon, and as we know, the usual retracement for the 1st impulse wave is most likely 0.618 or even deeper.
Bitcoin is one of the most bearish assets in the world. Gold almost hit an all-time high, as did Nasdaq. Bitcoin is supposed to be the most bullish asset, right? It already should be above the previous all-time high somewhere around 100k, but it's struggling below 30k.
This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
I am expecting a big crash on Bitcoin, no matter this recent pump. The market moves in waves, and corrections do make sense to me. I think 10k is no longer possible for Bitcoin due to the recent pump because the current uptrend from 15k is now transforming from a corrective wave into an impulse wave, which is a sign of the start of the bull market.
On the chart, you can see a projection for a Diamond or Head and Shoulders pattern that can be formed in the next few months prior to the final dump to 21k.
My strategy and game plan for Bitcoin is that first we are going to go higher, to around 33000, to take the liquidity above the previous swing high from 2022. After that, I am expecting a huge crash back to 25k, and then some consolidation pattern should occur as wave (B). In September, we can expect a final huge crash to 20K, followed by an extremely strong buy-back from whales.
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GOLD → Candlestick analysis - the market is ready to fall OANDA:XAUUSD quickly enough reaches the specified target of 1914 and forms a bullish rebound after a false breakout.
The price forms a range of 1939-1914, within which it can reach local resistance by the end of the session.
The daily timeframe hints that the fall will continue. The price exits the local descending range downward, breaking the support (another view is a break of the triangle support), after which a correction is formed - which is a logical component of trading. And the daily candle on Thursday closes at the very low, which suggests that the potential is not yet exhausted. The gold market is bearish right now.
Today's publishings are:
8:30 GMT Manifactruting ( FX:GBPUSD GBP)
13:45 GMT Services PMI ( FX:EURUSD USD)
Resistance levels: 1925, 1939.
Support levels, 1914.
The daily candlestick forms a local level - the low of the day. If price breaks this local support, it will head much lower, as there is a void under 1914 on the chart, but within the trading session a rebound could lead to a strengthening to 1925 or to 1939.
Regards R. Linda!
GBPAUD → Price continues to strengthen. I expect a breakthroughFX:GBPAUD is showing a chic dynamic based on the reversal pattern. At the moment the price is in a range and most likely the market will have to form a consolidation before breaking through the flat resistance.
Earlier the price acquires strong support from the 200-hour moving average. A strong consolidation forms a bullish position, after which we saw a rally to 1.90000
At the moment, I expect a retest of 1.90353 and the formation of a pullback to support in the near future. In the medium term from the trend support or from the level 1.89200 I would expect an active strengthening of the currency pair.
Support levels: trend bottom line, level 1.89200, sma200
Resistance levels: 1.90353, 1.91835
The pound continues to get stronger and the resistance of the range will not stop the price. I expect pre-breakout consolidation with a further breakthrough to 1.91835.
Regards R.Linda!
Bitcoin - Bull trap triggered, huge crash is starting!
Today I opened a short on BTC, and in this analysis, I will tell you why. In the previous analysis called "Bitcoin - The biggest bull trap in history!" I told you I wanted to short Bitcoin at the 0.618 FIB retracement; today we reached the important level and took liquidity above the previous swing high. Now everyone is extremely bullish, and it's time to short it.
On the chart, you can see a huge parallel channel on the weekly scale, and today we retested the trendline of the channel and the POC of the previous triangle. This is a very strong resistance, which is why I expect a huge decline in price in the next few days or even weeks. I am a very transparent trader because I share all the trades that I make with the entry points, SL, and TP.
From the Elliott Wave perspective, we can see a falling wedge, which is a bearish leading diagonal pattern with an overlapping wave structure. Usually you want to short it at wave (4) of the diagonal pattern, and we hit this wave today. In my opinion, wave 2 of the higher degree has been completed, and we are ready for the 3rd wave, which can be extremely steep.
It's possible that Bitcoin will start consolidating a little bit at the current price, so altcoins can also pump a bit. But it's only going to be temporary.
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This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I share my trades transparently and post trade setups privately.
Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!