AUDUSD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 021. Seasonality:
During the first week of December, the USD exhibits bearish momentum, while the AUD shows bullish tendencies. This combination makes AUDUSD overall bullish.
2. COT Report:
The AUD's COT RSI and Index are near the top, while the USD is near the bottom, indicating potential overextension. This suggests a bearish outlook for AUDUSD.
3. Fundamental Analysis:
LEI
The USD Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is increasing, while the AUD LEI is decreasing. Global LEI is also rising, favoring USD strength and adding a bearish tone to AUDUSD.
Endogenous Factors
These suggest bearish pressure for the AUD and bullish sentiment for the USD, further supporting a bearish bias.
Exogenous Factors
Exogenous influences, however, indicate an increase in AUDUSD, favoring a bullish trend.
4. Technical Analysis:
AUDUSD is forming an ABCD pattern and is currently at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the 1-hour chart. Additionally, there is significant resistance on the 4-hour chart, indicating potential bearish pressure from a technical standpoint.
Summary
The analysis presents mixed signals: seasonality and exogenous factors favor bullishness, while the COT report, LEI trends, endogenous factors, and technical resistance suggest bearish potential.
Bias
The combined analysis leans toward a short entry for AUDUSD.
Trade Plan
Entry: 0.64746
SL: 0.65130
TP: 0.64362
