Bitcoin - Let's Talk Fibonacci 📈Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📉📈
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫
Bitcoin is still facing critical selling pressure. What you see on the chart, is the Macro Fibonacci retracement and trend based extension. This is set up by using the first high BTC ever made, and the lower point is the first low after that high. Fibonacci can be especially useful from the Macro perspective, as certain levels seem to be critically important such as the .618's. The price trading right on top of a level is usually a sign of weakness, as it reflects that there is insufficient buying pressure there OR that the selling pressure is still high.
Even though we have seen some positive price movements from the 1 Level, we also see a clear M-Pattern and rejection at this point. There is obviously still a large supply zone here, and the price will be forced lower to find more buying pressure.
Please see the two posts at related ideas on two proposed bottoms👀
Looking for altcoins that are currently trading bullish? Check out these coins :
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Fibonacci Extension
EURNZD 3 VITAL LEVELS OF RESISTANCE Pair: EURNZD
Timeframe: 1D , 4H
Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pattern pattern, ascending triangle break
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Key Takeaway: Looking for bearish setups only for this pair. We have hit three vital resistance levels (high volume level / dynamic resistance / top of pennant pattern). Our profit target is at the support of our pennant pattern
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Level needed: need a close by 1.62470
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Trade: Short
RISK:REWARD 1:6
SL: 40
TP: 240
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DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
BTC Fibonacci analysis#BTC/USDT
$BTC dropped and broke down from ascending support line and now price is at the golden zone between 0.5 and 0.618 fib levels of the last swing high.
🐻 breaking down from the next ascending trend line and the golden zone will continue down trend to support zone around $19k and maybe lower to touch 1.414 and 2 fib levels!!
🐮 holding this golden zone as support and closing a daily candle above ascending broken trend line, can change the game for bulls, and price heading up to touch the resistance zone around $28k.
BNB to HODL#BNB/USDT
$BNB broke out from the long-term descending trend line.
now price holds the support zone above $270.
🐮 breaking out from resistance zone around $350 can continue the rally toward resistance zone between 0.5 and 0.618 fib levels of whole swing down.
and I think it's possible to touch the descending trend line.
as BNB had the most rise in previous bull runs (even more than BTC and ETH) so I prefer to #HODL it this time too.
EURUSD sell zone Yesterday, we said that the pullback has already started
Today, we will see when is it going to end and the potential sell zone.
What we want to see today is another push higher to 1,0027-1,0101.
Once we see price around those levels, we want to watch out for possible exhaustion in price and that will give us a signal for potential short positions.
Targets will be below 0,9900. Once we see that reversal to the downside, we then will be able to determine specific tp levels.
NVDA: Will pull back soon, but bullish longtermNVDA provided a textbook 5-wave impulsive move off the low. The 3rd wave tagged the 1.618 extension and the 5th wave has reached the 2.0 extension. This move has been very clean. However, the fibonacci extensions have been reached and now momentum is beginning to fade (see MACD). That being said, I expect NVDA to pullback over the next 2-3 weeks. I would like to see price retrace to the .5 - .618 retracement levels, filling the gaps in an A-B-C pattern, followed by a push back above the Wave 1 high. If this happens, the price target for wave 3 will be in the 240-250 range.
BTCUSD Bullish idea (The only one you need)-To enter a bullish bitcoin trade, you must wait for the price to do some things.
-I placed the demand levels on bitcoin. The first step is to wait for the market to get above the demand areas, at least 2 of them.
-After that, you need to wait for the price to retest those areas and you can expect a raise in price from there.
The market bullish areas became supply when the price got below them, that's why we need to wait for the market to transform those areas into demand again, after doing the stop hunt into the demand areas.
-When the market gets above, I recommend waiting for a retest on the m15, but, if you can, is better to enter with highs RR ratios whenever the market gets above this demand levels
Evening Update: Was Leonardo Bonacci an Ancient Alien? Trading View dictates I must post a chart to start a discussion. The above chart is Bitcoin. It’s going to $15,000. You want details...Follow me. Now, let’s talk about other things.
Who is Leonardo Bonacci?
Commonly referred to as Fibonacci, also Leonardo the Traveler from Pisa. The man was an Italian mathematician and considered to be "the most talented Western mathematician of the Middle Ages". The “Middle Ages” when the abacus was the iPhone 15, he invented a numerical sequence that would change the perspective of the world.
He was commonly called, Fibonacci, by the 18th century Franco-Italian historian Guillaume Libri and is short for filius Bonacci (son of Bonacci). He also introduced Europe to the sequence of Fibonacci numbers, and I often wonder how does a person come up with such an invention. The Fibonacci sequence is displayed best throughout nature. Did you know your arms are exactly .618 of your total height? Thanks Leo.
That’s one of many areas his numerical sequence can be applied to anatomy, also physics, astronomy.... etc.
So, it comes as no surprise that his numerical sequence applies to crowd behavior....aka Trading Markets.
I see so many posts on Tradingview.com that deal with Macro Economic events and education. They’re detailed and thought provoking.
Posts like: “How is China’s economy affecting the US inflation Rate”?, “Is the dollar’s reserve currency status in jeopardy”?
Great Articles...all of them. 100% worthless in trading.
There is not 1 person on TV who wants to be educated on Macro Economic events...not 1. We invented something called college a while back...some would be traders should look into that. I would venture a guess that 100% of the subscribers on TV and my followers included want to find ways to make money, grow wealth and make the markets work for them. Not one of my 700 followers have ever commented or DM'd me to ask about the Money Multiplier Effect...or the downside of abandoning the gold standard. They ask questions like...is now the time to go long....is now the time to go short.
So, here’s the truest thing any author here on TV will ask you? Can you point to 1 macroeconomic event that made you money in the market?
I mean when it comes to the great recession based on a financial liquidity issue caused by (MBS) Mortgage backed Securities and (CDO’s) Collateralized Debt Obligations only 1 guy on Planet Earth made money from that. Not only did they make a movie about him starring Brad Pitt, it never addressed the travesty of how the other 7 BILLION people on planet earth never saw this coming. Well, I exaggerate. I know several of my Elliottition mentors who foresaw these events months in advance. There’s not one news article on them. No movies. No fanfare. The Macro WILL NEVER have a place in any successful trader's tool box. But 1 edge each of my mentors had....was Fibonacci.
To master Fibonacci is to peek behind the curtain of the universe.
To this day, I’ll forecast a security going to a certain price and to watch price go there and reverse, and it still amazes me. (I've been doing this for a long time) It never gets old. I’ve seen it happen a thousand times and each time is still so powerful, so enlightening. So much so that I’m convinced Fibonacci could not have been from this world. He had to be an alien who visited us and dropped some value while he was here. Still today, his numerical sequence doesn’t get the attention it deserves and all in an age with no computers, no calculators.... none of that. Just a guy's mind and some stones.
So, the next time you think the jobs report is going to be great and you position yourself accordingly and the report is great. It’s stellar....but the market goes down. Realize that MACRO events are the death of trading for a profit.
Study Fibonacci instead.
Best to all,
Chris
PS: I’ll be on vacation from 9/1-9/15 and will not be posting during that timeframe. I may be able to respond to DM’s.
SPY To start leg up SPY seems to be showing bullish signals after the correction, Elliot correction wave is over and has finished in a keltner channel squeeze. (With volume dry up as well)
Retrace down to .618 or lower is possible from here before impulse wave starts, heading to Fibonacci extension points.
long matic to 2.16usdtmatic after a huge drop to .786 fib retracement level. most likely matic will pump towards the 2.16usdt. we will be using the 100% fib extension for finding target.
BCH Price Still Has A Potential To Reach $6k AreaLike majority of mid cap projects BCH is forming very similar crashing pattern as BTC did in 2018. Of course 2018 btc crash happened with different velocity and curve, but price did have some kind of bounce and sideways movement as BCH had this time.
If we extend fib. levels over 2018 bitcoin crash where level 1 sits at 2017 ATH and level 0 at the low, we can see that the price did first reach lo 0.618 retracement, then eventually crashed, closing the gabs above the low, only to have another breakout and pint point nailing level 4. fib. extension (69k). Time will tell very soon if BCH price will react to the same fib. retracement/extension levels, but if does, it would mean that the price would first climb just above 1k, then have an accumulation back below $200, then of to the races to 6k area where level 4 fib. extension level sits at. Imagine that, it would truly be an amazing alt season.
Remember that time is irrelevant here and no one knows when things will happen or for how is anything gonna take to play out. We can only speculate price areas based on historical price movement.
It is only a speculation, we need more time to really confirm all of this but when price is set for new ATHs after a major crash like this, it tends to react to above mentioned fib. levels.
I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
Between BlackRock and a TornadoThe connection between traditional finance and crypto is more closely linked than ever before as institutional demand for our treasured asset class rises rapidly. Last week we saw BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with approximately $8.5 billion under management, endorse bitcoin by offering a spot bitcoin private trust to their U.S-based investors. Being the largest asset manager in the world, it could be likely that all of their competitors will quickly follow suit to ensure they also offer the capability to their clients.
To provide additional access, BlackRock also partnered with Coinbase to provide infrastructure for their institutional clients to invest in crypto assets. BlackRock’s industry leading portfolio management software, Aladdin, is used by over 200 of the world’s largest institutional investors and manages over $21 trillion in assets. Aladdin and Coinbase will combine forces to offer a seamless portfolio management system for crypto, with Coinbase handling the execution and custody of the assets whilst Aladdin will handle the portfolio management aspects all through the Aladdin interface. It could be argued this is a major step in proving the legitimacy of bitcoin, especially with BlackRock being the main influencer on ESG investing. It additionally showcases the demand for exposure to the asset from BlackRock’s institutional clients.
Tornado Cash – the popular mixing service that enables on-chain privacy – came under heavy fire last week from governments globally. The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) sanctioned the protocol – leading to any American using the site breaking sanction laws. The sanction was argued due to the allegedly high number of illicit funds being laundered through the protocol and to prevent hacker groups, such as the Lazarus Group, from laundering stolen crypto funds. Dutch authorities arrested one of the protocol’s developers and have stated they will take further action against DAOs that may enable money laundering. Could this be the start of the war on Decentralised Finance (DeFi)?
The implications of being linked to, or seen facilitating on-chain activity, with a wallet in connection with Tornado Cash have also prompted “decentralised” protocols to ban addresses from using their services to remain compliant with regulatory bodies. Due to the transparency and accessibility of crypto, any individual can send anything to any wallet address, with the owner unable to stop their wallet from receiving transactions.
The banning of Tornado Cash sparked an onslaught of withdrawals from the protocol to famous personas’ wallets, such as Jimmy Fallon and Dave Chappelle, leading to them having broken sanctions laws and being punishable for up to 30 years in prison… technically speaking. Aave, the popular lending and borrowing protocol, banned the wallet of the founder of Tron, Justin Sun, as he was sent funds from Tornado Cash by the same unknown entity.
The act of Aave banning wallet addresses has created a stir in the crypto community, with many individuals doubting how decentralised these protocols actually are with their ability to intervene and ban wallet addresses. Some commentators have argued the act of government submission completely contradicts the ethos of crypto and DeFi. Coin Centre, the crypto privacy advocacy group, has stated they will challenge the sanction as it “exceeds statutory authority”.
Ever since crypto began, nation-states using crypto for their own benefit was seen as the final boss before global adoption. Last week Iran funded an import worth $10 million using crypto. Their usage has been instigated due to them being the second most sanctioned country in the world behind Russia – limiting their ability to trade with other nations using the existing banking systems. One of the country’s ministers also stated that “By the end of September, the use of cryptocurrencies and smart contracts will be widely used in foreign trade with target countries.”
The increased usage of crypto from states like Iran could be seen as a double-edged sword. It demonstrates the key tenets of sovereignty and impartiality where every individual should have the right to transfer value. However, depending on your geopolitical preference it could be deemed only useful by those not accepted into the system and arguably the wrong people.
This use case increasing in prevalence could also give further credence to governments to ban and regulate crypto with the argument and trump card of national security. Conversely, Ukraine has used crypto to raise well in excess of $100 million in donations to aid their fight against Russia – which would likely be viewed as a positive by the same people who condemn its usage by Iran. As with any technology, the usage and the users define its morality, despite the technology always remaining impartial.
When analysing price action, these developments have not had a major impact on the price of bitcoin. From a technical perspective, bitcoin is positioned between a rock and a hard place in an ascending channel, with the $24,500 level proving hard to crack. The 100-Day moving average is also hovering at this level. A higher timeframe close above this level could be a strong indicator that the rally could continue with the next target likely being the $28,000 level where 2021 yearly candle opened and where we consolidated over summer 2021. Rejection from here could see us retest lower levels and the 200-week moving average that is situated around $23,000.
However, with fear and greed reaching the highest levels seen in the past 4 months and Dogecoin and Shiba Inu pumping hard, these are telltale signs that an interim market top may be forming. The S&P 500 is also touching some strong resistance around the $4,300 level and with even further institutional involvement and intertwined portfolio management systems, rejection from this level could be the catalyst for a return to lower levels – with crypto potentially taking the hardest hit.
Bitcoin - Ultimate Guide to $100KHi Traders, Investors and Speculators📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
If you have been following me on TradingView for a while, you'll know that I am particularly fond of using multiple methods of chart analysis together, on a macro timeframe. In today's analysis, I revisit the once popular idea that Bitcoin will go to $100K. Is it possible? How do you get to that specific number? Let's break it down and take a look at the chart analysis in more detail.
Firstly, we need to analyze the chart from a macro perspective to determine what market phase / cycle we are currently trading in. We've covered that in detail HERE :
After an in depth study of the Wyckoff Method, it has been established that we currently find ourselves in the accumulation phase. It is important to note that there are multiple shakeouts in this phase before a clear bottom is established. If you want to know more about entering a bottom position, see this educational idea HERE on Ethereum :https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSDT/gcnzIgRL-ETHUSDT-Learn-to-Trade-a-W-Bottom/
After establishing the market phase , as well as what to look for in a potential bottom , we now need to establish bounce zones for the early stages of the new phase - mark up. My two go-to methods of determining possible bounce zones are Fibonacci and support zones / resistance zones from a macro perspective. These are both pulled up on the chart. Remember that there are intermediary supply zones / demand zones that are more evident on lower timeframes such as the daily. But for this analysis, we'll focus on the bigger picture.
Now that we have a strong foundation, we can start to speculate possible targets . Speculating targets is made possible by using the Trend Based Fibonacci Retracement + Trend Based Fibonacci Extension. This is the most reliable method for speculating potential targets. It is historically proven that most notable zones include any .236 , .618 and .786 numbers.
After we have established a strong argument for possible targets, we need to figure out how to get there! Luckily, there is another reliable chart analysis method called the Elliot Wave Theory. More detail on the Elliot Wave Theory and rules HERE:
Elliot Waves in combination with Fibonacci are arguably the most reliable methods to determine a potential long term trade setup. With all of the above said and done, we find that Bitcoin reaches the infamous $100K mark at notable 1.618 Fibonacci Trend Based Extension. Pulled up, is a potential Elliot impulse wave towards the target.
Final Thoughts 💭
Like the terrible saying goes, there are many ways to kill a cat. Using trusted methods such as the above, guarantees the user an average of 60% success rate. This is according to Wall Street figures taken over extended time, concluding their most profitable traders have a 68% win rate. So be careful when someone claims to make ridiculous profits or pips. Be realistic and realize that methods are not 100% guaranteed but instead, they have an average win rate of 60%, calculated with mathematical rules such as probability over longer periods of time.
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