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Fibonacci Extension

Jumping S-curvesIn this post, I will explain what jumping S-curves means and how you can identify potential S-curves before they jump . First, let's begin with the chart above (also copied below). This is a yearly chart of McKesson Corporation (MCK), a medical supplies company. As you can see in the chart below, this stock has been soaring over the past year despite most other stocks being significantly lower. Here is the performance of the S&P 500 over the same time period. Whenever I see something highly unusual in a chart, such as extreme outperformance, I check the higher timeframes to see what's driving price on a technical level. Below is the yearly chart for MCK. When I examine price action over a long time period, I always log adjust my chart. Below is the log-adjusted chart. Upon seeing this chart I immediately knew what was going on: the stock price jumped S-curves. I will try to illustrate below how I reached this conclusion. To begin, I drew Fibonacci levels from the last reaction low to the last reaction high on the yearly timeframe. The previous reaction low was the bottom of 2008 because that bottom was a Fibonacci retracement of some earlier reaction high, the reaction high is the top in 2015 because price did not surpass that high without first undergoing a Fibonacci retracement (to the golden ratio). As you can see above, from 2015 to 2018 the price retraced down to the golden ratio (0.618) on the yearly chart. It is often from this retracement level that the base of the second S-curve is created. (For simplicity, I only included the 0.618 Fibonacci level on the chart). Some may say that this pattern is merely a bull flag or pennant. (See chart below) Indeed, bull flags and pennants can be another way to visualize S-curve jumps. Whereas, on a deeper, more mathematical level, S-curve jumps are logarithmic spirals (approximated as Fibonacci spirals or Golden spirals). If you wish to delve deeper into logarithmic spirals, including the Golden spiral, you can check out this Wikipedia page: en.wikipedia.org These Fibonacci or Golden spirals are present on mostly every chart and they appear on mostly every timeframe (hence they are fractal ). One of the best charts you can use to visualize these spirals is the chart of Bitcoin. Below are charts of Bitcoin which attempt to show the endless fractal nature of Fibonacci spirals (or "S-curve jumps"). I've only illustrated a few of the spirals, but indeed there are numerous spirals. (I tried to do my best using the tools on Trading View to draw these spirals, but it can be quite hard to manipulate the curves perfectly to price action.) One may ask what about when price falls? That is obviously not an S-curve jump since the price is falling. Actually, when price is crashing it is usually just an S-curve jump, or Fibonacci spiral, on the inverted chart. Although I have not tested it with scientific rigor, I do hypothesize that Bitcoin's price movement is a series of infinitely fractal and competing Fibonacci spirals on various timeframes, including Fibonacci spirals on inverted scales. Price movement can be thought of as an infinite series of S-curve dilemmas where infinitely fractal S-curves, including those of which are inverse S-curves, compete to govern the next price move. Each dilemma is resolved when an S-curve reaches its inflection point, such that it governs price movement and price moves rapidly in that direction until it approaches capacity and faces its next dilemma. Those who know Calculus may recognize this chart. Indeed this is the graph of a logistic function. The mathematical terminology for an "S-curve" is sigmoid function . Here are some more interesting charts of S-curves (none of which is intended to be investment advice) Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) jumps S-curves on its yearly chart The U.S. Dollar Index jumps S-curves on its yearly chart The entire price action of Chinese EV Company (NIO) is an S-curve that just completed a perfect golden ratio retracement Japan's faces a population S-curve dilemma Citigroup underwent S-curve growth up until the Great Recession. Then it crashed or underwent S-curve growth on the inverted chart. In summary, price movement involves an endless series of S-curves or Fibonacci spirals. Identifying an S-curve on a high time frame before it reaches its inflection point and breaks out can lead to tremendous gains (among the most lucrative gains one can realistically make in the financial markets).
NYSE:MCKEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
22
BNB / USDT 4HCHART TARGETS AND STOPLOSSHello everyone, let's take a look at the 4H BNB to USDT chart as you can see the price is moving in the local uptrend channel. Let's start by setting goals for the near future that we can consider: T1 - $ 289 T2 - $ 323 T3 - $ 355 T4 - $ 401 and T5 - $ 460 Now let's move on to the stop loss in case of further market declines: SL1 - $ 279 SL2 - $ 261 SL3 - $ 243 SL4 - $ 217 and SL5 - $ 184 Looking at the CHOP indicator, we can see that in the 4H range the energy slowly starts to rise, while the MACD indicator shows a local downward trend.
by cryptodailyuk
Silver market catches airSilver is performing magnificently, exactly in the momentum moves envisioned by the Elliott waves. At the moment, we are in the wave (iv) of the . The wave (iii) we have completed at the high of $ 21.3 A slope of almost 19% in less than a week. Where else is there something like that? We reach the end of wave at least at the 1.618 extension at 22.135$, but also the 200% extension at 23.12$ can be reached easily. Often the fifth waves reach the 1 extension of the wave, which is approximately at 22.8$. So, an overshooting wave can be expected according to the current structure. Good for all who are invested in silver. The (iv) should bottom at the 0.382 retracement at $20.020 and then extend the last impulse wave before we correct again in the .
COMEX:SI1!Long
by DavidJankowski
US OIL not finish yet US OIL still has a correction of at least 30% ahead of it. According to the Elliott Wave calculations, we have seen the end of the correction of the superior 2 in April 2020. Since then, US OIL has risen almost 20000% to the top. Those who were invested then have been able to take good profits. Unfortunately, these times are over. We saw the top at the beginning of the Ukraine war, in March 2022. Since then we are in a correction. The wave (2) mostly builds up to the 0.618 Fibonacci, which is at $59.72 per barrel. Values to $40 and below are also possible due to the pronounced and steep wave 1. Once the correction is extended, OIL will extend a wave (3) and surpass the current top at 125$ per barrel.
TVC:USOILShort
by DavidJankowski
Silver Market near to bottom Silver got off to a good start and built a clean 5-part move through September 12, where it closed the wave at $20,020 per ounce. Expected after wave is a correction between the 0.618 Fibonnaci retracement and the 0.887 Fibonacci retracement. This area, starting from 18.4$ has silver now expired and with the entry of the territory of the (i) now the alternative wave (iv) excluded. Silver is expected to change trend direction in the pink trend reversal area and complete the , then continue to rise higher in a wave .
COMEX:SI1!Long
by DavidJankowski
GBPUSD BREAK OR BOUNCE ?Pair: GBPUSD Timeframe: 4H, 1H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pennant pattern ————— Key Takeaway: Just approached a very significant level of resistance where we have seen alot of consolidation. We could either see a bounce or break, we have to be ready for either move ————— Level needed: need a close by — ————— Trade: Neutral RISK:REWARD — ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
by TheGoldRoom
EURGBP BREAKOUT?Pair: EURGBP Timeframe: 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, breakout, descending triangle ————— Key Takeaway: Just approached mass support with alot of historical strength, we have also followed along with our downward trend line for some time. We need to see a break and retest of this level of support before entering short ————— Level needed: need a close by 0.86942 (after restest) ————— Trade: SHORT RISK:REWARD 1:5 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
USDJPY ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUT?Pair: USDJPY Timeframe: 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, ascending triangle pattern, breakouts ————— Key Takeaway: We have seen price consolidating in a ascending triangle manor for the past week and we might finally see a breakout this week. We have been using resistance and high volume profile together and the level is seeming difficult to break, due to upsides of USD we are looking to break these levels and entering long ————— Level needed: need a close by 144.965 ————— Trade: LONG RISK:REWARD 1:3 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Long
by TheGoldRoom
GBPUSD POTENTIAL UPSIDES AFTER THE BREAK?Pair: GBPUSD Timeframe: 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pennant pattern break, ascending triangle pattern ————— Key Takeaway: Last week we saw a break of pennant pattern and the pair showed overall strength with BOE attempts in rescuing GBP. We are looking for a break of this next level of resistance and a retest before entering long although price could find is difficult to break this level and we could see downsides, we have to keep our mind open to both possibilities ————— Level needed: need a close by 1.12330 ————— Trade: LONG RISK:REWARD 1:6 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Long
by TheGoldRoom
NDX / QQQ Resumes Downtrend But Approaches Multi-Year SupportPrimary Chart: Several NDX / QQQ Trendlines and Multi-Year Support Zone at $254-$267 SUMMARY : The downtrend has resumed since the consolidation pause in the days leading up to the FOMC presser on September 21, 2022. Shorter-term targets include June lows at $269-$270, and if June lows are violated, the next target range is $254-$267 on QQQ, which equates to $10,720 to $11,000 on NDX. This target range is supported by Fibonacci projections as well as a multi-year zone of support, which could lead to an interim (temporary) low. Importantly, watch for any undercut of the June 2022 low, and watch for a failed breakout below that level of support—which could lead to another countertrend rally or a period of sideways chop. The bear rally in July and August 2022 had even the bears scratching their heads with their tired paws—"tired" because this year has been anything but an easy ride for bears and bulls alike. In July and August 2022, AAII sentiment even showed some bears took off their furry suit and put on some horns, as the number of bears dropped as price continued to rip higher. But the more steadfast and patient bears were rewarded yet again after the August 16, 2022 peak. In the end, the entire summer's rally was a mirage, a rally that drew in many thinking the worst was finished. This is common in bear markets, with bear rallies in the Nasdaq in 2002 ripping 30-60% higher over weeks, and sometimes months. But now, the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ has resumed its downtrend decisively since the August 16, 2022, swing high. Every time a multi-day rally has appeared, sellers have pounced to flood the market with supply, sending the NDX / QQQ back on its downward path. The next target from a purely technical perspective appears to be the multi-year zone of support near $254/$255 up to $267 on QQQ, which equates to approximately $10,720 to $11,000 on NDX. This is not far below where price traded today. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 11,501.66 / QQQ at $280.07. This zone of support is also supported by Fibonacci analysis. Fibonacci projections show conservative targets for this leg of the decline around $255.68-$267.53 (Supplementary Chart A), which closely align with the multi-year zone of support (shown on the Primary Chart). Supplementary Chart A: Fibonacci Analysis with Projections Based on Structure of the Current Decline from August 2022 Highs Supplementary Chart B: Fibonacci Channel Showing Potential Target Assuming Bear Market Continues into Next Year The Fibonacci Channel is plotted on a logarithmic chart going back 22 years to 2000 approximately, and the lows in the 2000-2002 bear market. Coincidentally, the $228 price level at the 2.00 line coincides with the longer-term trendline support at about $225-$230 early next year —shown on the Primary Chart as the upward trendline, the lowest trendline on the chart. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by SquishTrade
8
EURCHF TREND CHANNEL BREAK OR BOUNCE ?Pair: EURCHF Timeframe: 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, trend channel break or bounce ————— Key Takeaway: Alot of bullish movement for the pair so we could see break of the trend channel although this momentum could be exhausted and we could bounce and reverse bearish ————— Level needed: need a close by — ————— Trade: Neutral RISK:REWARD — ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
by TheGoldRoom
EURUSD WILL WE BREAK OR BOUNCE ?Pair: EURUSD Timeframe: 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, double top?, ascending triangle pattern ————— Key Takeaway: Price has reached resistance level and could possibly be forming a double top, if we do we will look for short trades. On the other hand EUR has been showing some signs of bullish steam so we could break, retest and continue bullish from broken resistance ————— Level needed: need a close by — ————— Trade: Neutral RISK:REWARD — ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
by TheGoldRoom
Long for Maximum 40 pointsHello Traders, I was trying to analyze this stock. Actually i need to share it when the "Bat Pattern" completed but i miss the point. It already achieved Level 'B' . So we are expecting it will going upside till the Final Target. Whatever Target i mention here it on the basis of Fibonacci , Trend-lines , an Harmonic. Stop loss at 100 1st Target -->130 2nd Target -->140 Final Target -->150 I hope my prediction will get success...... Regard ChandR
NSE:TATASTEELLong
by practicalStar12288
3
✨Golem GLM - On fire! +2000% | Bullish flag + Huge breakout! Golem is on fire! You really want to buy Golem right now because the bullish flag is breaking out and an ascending triangle on the GLMBTC pair also! How can you not love the name of the coin? But you definitely will with the massive profits! As per my Elliott Wave analysis, we are prepared for the third impulse wave to the upside. The third wave is usually the strongest, so you don't want to miss it. The ABC correction has been completed, and we are forming a bullish flag pattern that is currently breaking out. You often find ZigZags corrections in bullish flags.  1:1 FIB extension is the next profit target (wave 3). Look at my idea about the GLMBTC pair in the related section down below. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
159