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Will the Russian Ruble keep appreciating vs other currencies?The truth is that the most likely answer is yes, the Ruble will keep going higher. Russia is a massive commodities exporter, from oil & gas, to wheat, and therefore there is a constant bid for its currency due to the natural demand for its resources. As Russia is hit by several sanctions, it is very hard for them to buy stuff from outside of Russia, and therefore even less money is flowing out of the country. The government has also imposed capital controls, and it is hard for its citizens to sell their currency for USD, EUR etc. The Central bank also raised rates from 5% in 2021 up to 20% post invasion, and have now dropped rates to 11%. Even though that's still a pretty high number and inflation in Russia is much higher than 11%, however this rate is still much higher than what many countries are offering. A 9% cut in interest rates couldn't even bring the currency down, a major sign of strength. However in my opinion the most important aspect is that Russia has very low debt and could take the hit, while most other countries can't raise rates without breaking everything. They also have significant amounts of Gold, and what remains to be seen is what happens to their FX reserves that have been frozen. If they totally lose these reserves then the currency could suffer, but for now it is possible that they get their reserves back. Forcing 'hostile' countries to pay them in Rubles isn't as important as people think, as they could have accepted payments in Euros for example, and then used that money to buy their own currency. This was mostly a power play and a statement that energy sanctions are futile. Now in terms of TA, the Ruble got insanely oversold after having a huge breakdown (USDRUB breaking out), but when the dust settled, many people who were short were forced to cover as their brokers wouldn't allow them to trade the Ruble. Many accounts were probably blown up due to the whole sanctions, capital controls and so on, that made it very hard for traders to go long or short. As USDRUB started coming down, longs were getting crushed and everyone had to start closing their positions. The market became illiquid and unstable, and mainly damaged those betting against the Ruble. At the moment USDRUB has gotten incredibly oversold, as it broke the S3 Yearly Pivot, as well as the S3 Monthly Pivot, and broke the 2020 Covid low, as well as the 2017-2018 lows. The bounce is mostly driven by technical reasons (taking out stops & being oversold), as well as the 3rd rate cut. However in terms of TA, it looks pretty likely that it is heading for 36$. The whole reversal from 160 all the way down here is still very bearish and an indication that lower prices are coming. The rejection at the diagonal resistance is pretty bearish, and the entire 2013-2015 rally / breakout could be reversed. In the short term the market could trade between 55 & 70, but in the long term it is going to go lower.
Short
by BitcoinMacro
23
Bitcoin slumps under US$25,000, lowest in 18 monthsBitcoin tumbled Monday to an 18-month low under US$25,000 (RM110,512) as investors shunned risky assets in the face of a global markets selloff. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency dived about 10 per cent to hit US$24,692 in morning London deals, striking a level last seen in December 2020. World stock markets have plunged since Friday when data showed US inflation at a fresh four-decade high, increasing recession fears. “The correlation between the equity markets and bitcoin continues to” gain strength, said AvaTrade analyst Naeem Aslam. The virtual unit has collapsed 65 per cent in value since striking a record peak in November 2021. — AFP
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Kenneth4333333
Has the US Dollar peaked, or is this a correction?Hello everyone! From today I will start sharing analysis on all sorts of markets, that will be shorter than usual and focused only on a specific pair/topic. Rather than trying to put everything together like I used to in the past, I will try to stay on point and condense the information. That's because readers weren't really going through everything as it was too much. If you enjoyed the old format or you wanna see how I used to write, below I've added most of my 2022 analysis. Even though it's older, some of that stuff is still useful, especially if you read it and try to think how we got here. Now let's get into the DXY and answer the question on the title. My answer is that no, I don't believe the USD has peaked and that yes, this is a correction. Essentially what happened was that the USD got extremely overbought, and it trapped many late longs. In my opinion it needs some time to consolidate and chop in the 99-105 range before breaking higher. One thing I really need to clarify is that although I think the top isn't in, it absolutely could be. It's just that based on several things I take into account in my analysis, it hasn't. Yes the US has huge deficits, too much debt, an overleveraged economy and therefore the USD is going to go down hard against many other currencies one day. However as most countries, corporations and ordinary people still need dollars in order to transact in the financial system, to pay debts and so on, the USD remains King. With inflation and interest rates going up, the demand for dollars went up as people scrambled to ahold of them in order to pay back their growing debts, bills and so on. What people also need to remember is that most of the debt in the world is denominated in USD, and therefore when interest rates go up and the dollar goes up, it creates a positive feedback loop where the dollar keeps getting stronger and stronger. Currently this loops seems to have broken as US bond yields have been trading lower for about 2 weeks now, something that has allowed for the DXY to pullback along with bond yields. What we need to remember that although other countries have strong economies and less debt than the USA, the USA remains one of them most self-sufficient countries out there. Many countries in a much worse position to it, and therefore their currencies could do a lot worse than the USD. In my next ideas I will go through all of these currencies separately, as each one of those has its own unique bullish or bearish case. Finally, in terms of price action, I do expect the DXY to go down a bit more. Not much more before it bounces, but until I see it close below 99 or 105, I will be treating this as a range. No reason to take huge positions aiming for new 80 or 120, as the DXY has already had a huge move, and we are sitting in the middle of nowhere. Like I said above, it is possible that the top is in and after some chop it goes lower. Therefore I'd like to see some bullish price action before I step in again.
TVC:DXY
by BitcoinMacro
EURO - Continuation as bear flag!!Hello everyone As we have seen a great loss of support level 1.078$ and 1.06$ on EURUSD, now we have the support level 1.05$ which leave us with possible outcomes of: - Continuation of the wedge that can be seen in 4 hours chart as bear flag which is more likely because of the last daily bar with the shadow almost as long as the body and the context of bear market on daily chart. This will lead to fall of the EURUSD to lower channel with the support level of 1.035$ which the price last seen on Dec 2016 & Jan 2017. - Or we can have the price continues in the channel between 1.06$ and 1.05$ for the whole week and wait for a reversal pattern. The war in Europe also can be a factor in our bear trend.
Short
by HubAlgo
2
$DXY About to Break Out? I mentioned recently on twitter that I am long USDJPY. Not much to say about the dollar, other than it looks like it wants to break out to the upside. Additionally, the macroeconomic tailwinds support a bullish dollar thesis in a couple of ways: 1. The Federal Reserve has been very transparent about their intention to continue to raise interest rates through 2022. Increasing interest rates make the dollar more attractive via the risk-free rate of return. 2. The war in Ukraine: as an added measure towards defeating Russia's war machine, raising interest rates in the US makes exporting dollars to Russia that much less attractive. When I say "exporting dollars to Russia", I am describing a situation in which other sovereign countries who might otherwise be willing to engage in trade with Russia, can now look to the risk free rate of return in dollar-denominated asset classes... so, why would you trade with Russia when you can buy US bonds that pay interest and allow you to stabilize your currency and rebalance your trade policy? 3. Oil prices continue to rise. Russia may pretend to be in control of the market for crude, but so far - this is empty dictatorial rhetoric. 4. Bitcoin continues to deteriorate ( I identified the top in October 2021 ). A stronger dollar, resulting from real world economic conditions, will continue to put adverse pressure on Bitcoin and cryptos alike. last, I am now a little unsure on stocks overall. I am *guessing* stocks will continue to drift sideways for now. God bless, -Chief
TVC:DXYLong
by ChiefMacro
Elliot Wave Analysis on BTC-USDTHello Traders I have done my best to present accurate and real time illustrations as the story unfolds. Welcome to Buy Dips and Eat Chips. Elliot Wave analysis usually works in 3–3-5 meaning ABC-ABC-1-2-3-4-5 movements. This method is used to accurately predict trend continuation and reversals. The chart above shows the replicated move for Elliot wave structure. From my perspective the cycle has now reset and we are in wave B of the sequence. About to retest the support for the third and final time before breaking up to downward sloping resistance of our triangle. (White lines) A mentor once said “when you don’t have to worry about what happens after placing a trade, that is when you know you are doing it right” *Apply Stop Loss *Wait for a retest to enter a trade position *Take Profit is better than No Profits *Don’t revenge trade / FOMO in middle of trends *LONG THE SUPPORT - SHORT THE RESISTANCE *Have your trade parameters defined/written down for both BULL and BEAR situations before entering position *Sometimes the best trade is NO TRADE - volatility sweeps happen often in zones *Log your trades and WHY they succeeded or failed. Do this over and over and over. If you like some of the content please follow and like / comment your ideas !!! Happy Hunting.
Long
by Fabreezio
1
DXY might influence every risky market According to the macro indexes during last months, FED increase interest rate and profit of ten years bond yield. so it's obvious that the inflation still a big problem for US and world economy. next week more inflation indexes would be published and declare that high risk market enter a winter or fiat shows a little weakness. technically DXY is in a trading range for more than a month and if it continue, next week it would be reach the lower band of parallel channel which I declare in the PIC. this parallel channel have been valid since may 2021!!! I believe more probable scenario is that DXY increase until contact with the resistance(97.79) , in such a case stock and crypto market might face another short bounce, then DXY finally shows weakness and decreasing. both stochastic and RSI indicators are in the middle.
TVC:DXYLong
by behzadjl
The Next Leg DownWelp, I'm calling it. I believe the next leg of this market sell off is coming. I'm sure all of you saw the Asset Bubble Chart.. I just can't believe we will be a part of something like this. I believe the short term bear market rally has about come to its end and we are heading towards another sell off. There is absolutely no news that can prop up markets at this point. The numbers are starting to come in globally, and PMI, GDP world wide is utterly collapsed. Oil while it had a short move upward is still at prices that producers can not maintain. You will see an influx of bankruptcies of oil producers and shale companies. In fact, it already started. World wide, it's no better. Keep in mind that, during America's boom since 2016, most of Europe was in recession. Now imagine how bad the EuroZone is as they entered this crisis already in recession. So, what's my opinion? I believe the EuroZone will collapse first. There is new infighting between the EU and Germany on the ECB's Bond Buying Program. This is potentially catastrophic as the EBC has no stopped their bond buying program since 2010 and they already have their interest rates at -0.45%! Europe has nothing left in their arsenal besides massive printing and stimulus, which will be short lived. After Europe collapses, Japan will be the next country to be hit. Japan has been had some of the worst economics and demographics of any country. They have been printing like never before and their entire country is heading into a depression. Couple this with weaker sales of electronics and vehicles, Japan is going to hit a wall here soon. The Bank of Japan can not save what was done. Lastly, the United States will have its day of reckoning. After decades of unbalanced budgets, printing infinitely, political uncertainty and a general instablity, the US will have a recession that never was before. The Great Recession of 2008 shattered the floor.. and since them they put glue in all the cracks, it held but they added more weight than ever. Every kind of debt is at record levels. The US Federal Tax Revenue is dropping $100,000 even 9 seconds and the US Debt is growing $100,000 every 4 seconds. The last time this Tax Revenue fell was 2008, during the recession. It's over folks. I don't mean to sound like an alarmist but you call a spade a spade when you see it. I believe this is the catalyst to the end of fiat world wide. Besides, historically, about even 30-50 years the world has been on a new global monetary standard since 1900s. The last monetary standard was in 1970s when Nixon killed the Bretton Woods system. So, what'll happen from here? The central banks will do what they always do in a crisis and the printers will be put on max output. Currency will be created like never before. I believe in the next 1-3 years, we will see hyper inflation in the US. Keep in mind, the One-Dollar Zimbabwe was worth $1.40ish USD in 2007. In 2008, we had the infamous 100,000,000,000,000 trillion Zimbabwe notes. Yes, it took just ONE year for hyper inflation to hit. What can I say? Hedge in silver and gold , a little in BTC because at this point who knows what will survive this crash. Dow will fall easily below 10,000.. and we will see the greatest number of unemployed people ever. This virus did a whole lot more damage underneath than we thought. There will NOT be a U-Shaped recovery. Fear has set in, people do not want to return to work and the once insane thought of basic income is now becoming reality. This isn't a chart on how to profit from this down turn, its just a cold reality check. I believe man has held it together for as long as they did but we see, people are no longer patient or caring. People are quicker to jump to conflict than peace. I believe society will also collapse and the once sane moral minded man will descend into violence, rioting, and looting. It sounds far fetched but, man will be man doesn't matter what year it is. static.seekingalpha.com
TVC:DJI
by WorldEconomics
10
Will the USD rally continue?At the moment the USD is significantly overbought and could roll over at any moment. For now however what is more likely is a simple pullback and then continuation higher. As the Fed is determined to raise rates and inflation seems to be pretty high, the USD could appreciate even more and the US is very dominant. Maybe a stock market correction or a change in direction by major central banks do have an impact on the DXY, but the current trend is still up, although the USD could fall to as low as 93.9 before continuing higher. Maybe we get a pullback as rates have gone up significantly without the Fed having even started to raise rates yet. Maybe the rally we've gotten up until now is already overdone as the market has priced in the rate hikes. Maybe the market hasn't priced in some of the rate hikes, but the reality is that it is already ahead. The US 10Y yield had lost all its gains relative to other countries since mid 2013, from end of Nov 2018 until the huge oil crash in Apr 2020. Then rebounded all the way up to the point where its collapse hard started in Feb 2020 and then pulled back again. Now consolidating but with no clear direction yet. A lot will be determined on rates in my opinion, however that isn't the only reason the USD could go up or down. At the same time we have a lot of people chasing safe US liquid assets while USD denominated debt is sky high, and higher inflation that isn't caused money printing is doing a lot of damaged to those that hold a lot of USD debt.
TVC:DXY
by BitcoinMacro