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Falling Wedge

BTCUSDT - Monthly & Daily View Macro Outlook Still looking at a falling wedge seems most volume traded above the Weekly and Daily support levels which are now resistance. I'm particularly interested in the fib 0.618 as shown drawn from the low to high which seems a reasonable retracement level to reset all the selling. Nice monthly that corresponds to this level. The VRVP showing no volume at the moment however this could and will change as price moves, should it move to the downside. Overall an overview of current support and resistance levels both on a monthly and daily view. We clearly are lacking volume. No volume, no trading, no trading, no movement. Be nice to see some action from the big players to kick of the month of January.
by hmaroudas
Forget about chart patterns! Hello, my dear friends and happy New Year! I wish you to be healthy and reach all your goals in trading and not only! Never give up on this difficult way which we are going to overcome together! Today we have a very important topic. How to use Elliott waves instead of classical chart patterns. This is the natural exposure why the chart patterns are garbage. I remember my third year at university when we have the trading lessons. Our teacher gave us a lot of useless knowledges about support, resistance and chart patterns. I have not understood why it should working and it was not soo intereting subject for me. That’s why I returned back to trading much later using self-education. Now I have the clear understanding why Elliott waves is the best tool and why it’s working. Most of traders even don’t understand that chart patterns is just the special case of Elliott waves. That’s why today I decided to explain you how you can change the first one to the second one. Let’s go! Double Top(Bottom) On the chart above I drew the different types of double tops. Generally we have 3 types of this pattern Double top with the second top higher than the first one. In this case we can interpret it in two ways. It could be the classical waves 3, 4, 5 and the corrective wave A at the ending stage. In this case we can anticipate waves B and C. Also it could be the irregular correcton ABC inside wave 4 (rarely in wave 2). In this case we should wait for the wave 5 after that. Traders usually execute short position on the neckline breakdown and suffer when the wave 5 smashed their stop-loss. They are wondering why double top does not working. Double top with the equal highs has the same possible outcomes. The only one difference that correction called flat instead of irregular. Double top with the second top lower than the first one. Here is the most common variant is the end of the ABC correction. In this case we have the low potential for shorting the market becuase the new impulsive wave to the upside can hit all stop losses. Head & Shoulders This is the easiest pattern for analysis. The right sholder usually is the wave 4, the head, obviously is the wave 5 and the right shoulder is the wave B. On the neckline breakdown we have the shorting potential only in the rest part of the wave C. You could correctly count waves and short that the bearish reversal bar of the wave 5 or, as a last resort, at wave B potential top. Shorting at the neckline has sence only if you are sure that the wave B was the the wave 1 of the impulsive wave to the downside if higher degree and now the market is in wave 3. We have to learn how to count waves in a correct way. I would recommend you to read the Trading Chaos book by Bill Williams because it has the best explanation how do waves work. Triangles and Wedges This part is common for all types of triangles (ascending, descending, symmetrical) and wedges (falling and rising). This patterns have the similar structure. If we faced with one of these patterns we have 4 possible scenarios. Triangle in the downtrend after the wave 3. In this case triangle is the wave 4, which is represented as the triangle correction. This correction type consists of 5 waves A, B, C, D and E. When the wave E is finished market will continue it’s move in the direction of a trend, printing the wave 5. The same, but in the uptrend. When the market showed us the 5 waves cycle to the upside and the correction is in progress. Triangle can appears in the wave B. In this case the price will continue the corrective move in the wave C after it’s finished. The same with the downtrend. Guys, of course there are much more types of chart patterns. For example, tripple tops and bottoms and so on. The purpose of this article is giving you another view of the market structure and to motivate you studying the Elliott waves theory. Believe me, it has much more potential than it seems on the first glimplse. Best regards, Ivan ________________________________________________________________________________________________ If you like my educational ideas, please smash the boost button to stimulate me make more quality articles!
Education
by Skyrexio
Binance 80% CRASH! Black swan crypto event. Fundamentals first. Binance Exchange is losing customers; that is a fact that everyone knows. The huge scandal occurred just before Christmas, but it looks like people have already forgotten what happened. What is causing Binance Exchange to lose customers? First of all, Binance Exchange itself is banning users all around the world for no reason. My friend got banned before Christmas, 1 day after he opened a short position on BNBUSDTPERP futures. I received a lot of messages from people all around the world saying they received an email with a permanent account suspension. Half of them could withdraw their funds; the other half could not. So if you received this email and you don't know why, Binance Exchange can ban you without any reason, just if they want to. There is a conspiracy theory (not verified) that Binance cannot have a monopoly on crypto; bigger players refuse to accept this fact, so they need to reduce it by force. I think Binance is a great exchange, the most liquid exchange. But these are facts that everyone can verify. BNB coin is currently worth 245 USDT. In my opinion, the price is very expensive at this moment, due to recent scandals and lost customers. 50 - 100 USDT is a fair price to me; I am not willing to pay more for the coin. If something is too big, it will destroy itself, so there needs to be competition. Monopoly is not a good thing. I want to give you some tips: do not short BNB directly on the Binance exchange if you don't want to get permanently banned like my friend. The best option is to store your cryptocurrency in a hardware wallet such as Trezor. And use only a portion of your funds on exchanges to trade spot or futures. Leverage is good because you don't need all your funds and will transfer the risk to the exchange. Together with "stop limit" orders, you can trade very effectively even with a small amount of your funds on exchanges. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said on Twitter that "for most people, for 99% of people today, asking them to hold crypto on their own, they will end up losing it." In other words, if you hold crypto on your own, you will lose your funds, so you should hold all your funds on exchanges. I was shocked when I saw this. He made this statement during the massive bank run on his exchange, giving the impression to others that he was threatening people and convincing them that their funds are safe only in his exchange. ----------------------------------------------------------- Now let's take a look at the technical analysis, which is the main reason why I am bearish on BNB. Both the technical and fundamental analyses are bearish. The uptrend from June 13, 2022, to November 7, 2022, is clearly weak. It's an ABC corrective pattern, which is usually followed by a massive crash.  80% crash to 48 USDT is, in my opinion, very possible. Everything is going down, including META stocks, TSLA, etc. So if you believe in the future of Binance, 48 USDT is your desired price. You have no idea how much BNB people accumulated in previous years or how many leveraged long positions on futures are open. The market usually wants liquidity. The price has been moving in the descending parallel channel, and we can retest the channel from the downside. As per my Elliott Wave analysis, the whole structure looks very weak. The first impulse wave appears to be an ending diagonal wedge. The bulls are not interested in this coin. 48 USDT is a very strong support because it marks the beginning of the massive gap from 2021 as well as the breakout level of the previous structure from 2020. I am very bearish on the crypto space, not just the BNB coin, as you may have seen from my previous posts. Binance is the most liquid exchange and CZ Binance did a great job bulding it. Thank you, and happy New Year!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
98
BTC/USD - is BTC still in a downtrend?Let’s have a look at the BTC/USD 1 week chart and see what this chart and indicators are telling us. BTC is still in a massive Falling Wedge Pattern. BTC is also still in a massive Ichimoku Y-Wave pattern. Note that the 50MA is still traveling DOWNWARDS towards the 200MA so we still might see a Death Cross on this 1 week timeframe. At the moment of typing this, BTC has crossed back under its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1 week timeframe. A successful close below the LSMA and successful re-test as resistance will indicate that the direction of travel will most likely continue downwards. BTC is still way under its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this 1 week timeframe. Looking at the Descending Pitchfork Pattern, we can see the Support and Resistance levels that BTC has been hitting on this indicator. Here is a closer look at this 1 week chart: BTC is still in the Bearish Zone of all 3 of its major Ichimoku Clouds. Looking at BTC’s most important Ichimoku Cloud: The Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that mid-point the short-term momentum is downwards at the moment. The Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the mid-point of the mid-term momentum is sideways at the moment. The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating that momentum, at the moment is starting to slope downwards. Using the Negative V Calculation from the 1 Month Chart, and using the Ichimoku Timespan Numbers of 65-Bars and 76-Bars starting from the ATH at $68,789.63 back in Nov 2021, we have 2 potential timeframes for the price target $9,916. V Calculation Negative (from 1 month chart) V = B - (C-B) = D C $25,160 - B $17,538 = $7,622 B $17,538 - (C-B) $7,1622 = $9,916 D1 = $9,916 The week of 6th Feb 2023 D2 = $9,916 The week 24th April 2023 Note that this is NOT a bottom for BTC but is a PRICE TARGET using the Ichimoku V Calculation (Negative). Looking at the Up/Down Volume, we can see that the Volume Traded since around June 2021 has been nothing when compared to what has been previously traded in the past. Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that the RSI is pointing downwards and still has plenty of room to move downwards before becoming Oversold on this 1 week timeframe. Note that the RSI is getting very close to crossing under is 9 Period EMA. From my opinion, before anyone can start talking or preaching about bottoms, reversals and bull-runs, we need to talk about fundamentals and what is happening to the world economy. We also now know that the Crypto world isn’t yet a hedge against inflation and we also need to accept the fact that the world is already in a recession and possibly heading into a depression in 2023. From my opinion BTC is still in a mid to longterm downtrend. That is NOT going to change unless BTC crosses back ABOVE and more importantly CLOSES ABOVE its 200MA on the 1 Day Chart for Mid-Term and 1 Week Chart for Long-Term. If/when this happens, be on the lookout for any successful re-test as support on these timeframes. Once this world wide recession fully bottoms out be it in 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years or 10 years and when the powers that be have had their fill of transferring wealth from the Middle Class and the Poor to the elites, then true opportunities WILL ARISE for those who are ready. Again this is all my opinion so I hope this post is helpful.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
10
Bitcoin - The bottom will be here (89% chance) I am telling you that the bottom on Bitcoin will be between 9600 - 10300 USD and I expect Bitcoin to reach this reversal zone in summer 2023! You can place your buy orders here because the reaction on this level will be extremely high, so you can also buy/long BTC for a 50% profit. The worst-case scenario for Bitcoin is to hit the bottom of the huge channel on the LOG weekly chart, which is unfortunately between 5200 - 5800 USD. But I think it's not going to happen. If bitcoin falls below 5k, a lot of exchanges will be out of business because customers will leave the crypto space. 99% of people will be out of crypto, and it doesn't make too much sense. In crypto, there is a lot of money to be made for big players. They want crypto to rise as well. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has been moving in this massive ascending parallel channel with 5 touches. It's a valid channel on the LOG scale. Volatility on Bitcoin is at an all-time low, and this should last until we find the bottom. 9600 - 10300 USD is a very strong zone because it is the 0.618 FIB of the previous impulse wave and also because there is an unfilled GAP. As per my Elliott Wave analysis, the downtrend that started in November 2021 looks impulsive, so there is a high chance to go lower to complete the ABC retracement. ETH could reach 250 USD and BNB could reach 48 USD. It's a very strong level for these coins that you will see in my next ideas, so follow me and hit the like! Thank you, and happy trading!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
91
BTC calm before the storm, be prepared!! Total Market CapHi dear community and my loyal followers. In short I would like to update crypto market from macro perspective. I'm looking at monthly timeframe and would like to bring your attention to some bullish facts. As you see Total market Cap tested previous ATH in June 2022, the point which I called and till now I haven't changed my mind. Even the recent dump couldn't make me change my idea coz as you see it is double bottom. At the same time TOTAL Market Cap tested 0.786 fib level with 12D MACD bullish cross in a bear market which marks Bull market start and the Bear market end. BTW it has never given false signal in the whole BTC history. As you noticed every time when MACD crosses bullish the bottom was already in which proves my previous analyses about BTC bottom which I called 17.5K in June, the recent dump was a fake breakdown/ bear trap/ with Double bottom + multiple indicator bullish divergences like 2021 69K which was a fake breakout / bull trap/ with double top+ multiple indicator bearish divergences. At the moment I'm waiting BTC daily candle close above 21.3-21.5K with confirmation then daily candle close above 24.5-25K with confirmation to announce officially Bull market start. BTC will surprise 99% people who are waiting lower prices like 12-10-8K and doesn't give chance to buy at such low prices jumping suddenly in a crazy way. If you like my ideas don't forget to like, comment and follow my ideas. I will appreciate any single follow. Thanks in advance.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by ergal91
2
DOGE - Extremely bearish pattern, buy/long here! Doge looks very bearish, but this coin is definitely stronger than others. In this analysis, I will tell you where to buy DOGE for a short-term trade! Doge is not going anywhere; this coin will survive even the most hard-core crash, together with Litecoin and Monero. These first-generation altcoins are solid. Unfortunately, the chart is printing a descending triangle, which is not bullish. There is a lot of liquidity below the triangle, so the market wants all orders. I am buying doge exactly at 0.06112 for a short-term profit. I will trade it on the futures market, of course, but you can do it on the spot market as well. Don't forget to set your orders! From the Elliott Wave perspective, the previous uptrend looks like a 3-wave ABC corrective structure. Not the best sign. I remember before everyone was buying DOGE like crazy, and now everyone is at a loss. The crypto winter is real; nothing is bullish pretty much. The only way to make money is to trade futures. I post trade setups privately. This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. Why buy doge at 0.06112? because it's the last high-volume node on the volume profile and also because we have an ascending trendline, which should work well together. What's more it's the start of the massive gap. The 200-day moving average has been tested three times, and it's just too much. It looks like buyers are running out of steam. There are 2 most likely scenarios. The first is that we will spend more time in this triangle. The second is that we will breakdown very soon. Thank you!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
47