Opening (IRA): EWY July 18th 35C/February 21st -55C PMCC*... for an 18.17 debit.
Comments: Back into EWY, after missing out on the dividend due to my shares being called away. Since there is no longer a dividend to be had, going with a Poor Man's Covered Call/long call diagonal, buying the longer-dated 90 delta strike and selling a shorter-dated call that pays for all of the extrinsic in the long, resulting in a setup that has a break even slightly below where the underlying is currently trading.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 18.17
Break Even: 53.17
Max Profit: 1.83
ROC at Max: 10.07%
50% Max: .92
ROC at 50% Max: 5.04%
Delta/Theta: 46.50/.751
Will look to money/take/run at 50% max.
EWY
Opening (IRA): EWY January 17th 52 Covered Call... for a 51.50 debit.
Comments: Primarily in this for the dividend, since the ROC %-age without it kind of blows chunks. The last four distributions were: .63, 1.68, .70, and 1.65. Would appreciate something in the neighborhood of 1.00 (please and thank you) ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 51.50/share
Max Profit: .50
ROC at Max (Excluding Dividends): .97%
I generally look to take profit on these at 50% max, but will wait for the dividend to drop to see what's what ... .
ETF - Go Long on South Korea! $EWY The ETF on ASX is $IKO South Korea, iShare MSCI South Korea.
This ETF tracks $EWY in the US Market.
I like this wedge chart pattern here, we are still trading sideways since the start of the year.
A breakout is coming,
currently, the price is still above all three moving averages, (21,50,200).
Therefore, it is more likely to break out into the upside.
Buy on a breakout and close above $94.75.
Select Emerging Markets down frm Jan 2021, not like IXIC mid FebSelect Emerging Market ETFs (U.S. listed in $USD) falling since Jan 2021, not like the IXIC (Nasdaq Composite Index) only since mid Feb: Russia RSX, Brazil EWZ, Mexico EWW, South Korea EWY, Thailand THD, New Zealand (ENZL - small market, not emerging market).
Korean pumptardednessEWY posted the same pattern as it did before the last 2 big drops. Entered into some puts today for next week.
There's still room for it to go hit resistance and ATH, the 2 lines I've drawn. If it goes up from here, look for a similar pattern before shorting.
I'm bearish for Monday, but who knows, they can do another vaccine pump, 3 weeks in a row, lol.
Note, if it tanks on Monday, wait until Tuesday to short, it usually does a 2 step drop with an up day in teh middle.
KRW/USD Korean CurrencyCUrrency looks like it got rejected by resistance, should whipsaw here.... hopefully down next week.
When trading foreign index ETFs like EWW, EWY, EWZ, or TUR, you gotta pay attention to the currency trade as well. The funds are NOT hedged against currency which means you're playing both the index and the currency.
You can trade these ETFs to take advantage of currency trades, take a look at TUR. Between Biden being elected, vaccine, and the issue in Armenia being resolved, TUR went up like crazy this month.... (I missed the boat on it though I made a killing a couple of years ago when the Turkish Lira crashed)
EWY Korean H&S?Out of all major indices, Korea is down the most tonight. I didn't realize that EWY now has weekly options, not as much liquidity as EWW or EWZ, but at least they exist.
In any case, looks like a H&S pattern..... also, note how much bigger the movement compared to SPY. I always tell people teh return is better with foreign index ETFs.
Canary in the coal mine $EWYWhile there are folks that may disagree, i've always looked at the $EWY as an early indicator of possible downside pressure, globally. If you look at this chart, the EWY has been step laddering against the SPX, diverging much more so at the beginning of 2019. While the SPX was making new highs and posed to break out to new levels, the EWY steadily continued its downward move. We are tied globally much more than any other time in history. What affects one market shouldn't be shrugged off as not having an effect on another, especially a country like Korea. As an expat who lives and works in Korea, you can see the economic pressure and slowing down on the ground. Having this spat with Japan in the recent weeks (a spat that goes back to the early 1900's on a much more personal level than economic) is going to accelerate the downturn even further.
TWO EWY (S. KOREA ETF) TRADE IDEASI haven't traded this particular instrument before. For obvious reasons, now seems like a perfect time.
The first of the two trades is a short strangle, with the shorts set up at the ~30 delta strike:
JUNE 16TH 60/65 SHORT STRANGLE
POP%: 59%
Max Profit: $140/contract
Max Loss: Undefined
Break Evens: 58.60/65.82
Theta: 3.01
Delta: .78
The second's a defined risk trade using the same strikes for the short options as used in the short strangle:
June 16th 57/60/65/68 Iron Condor
POP%: 52%
Max Profit: $93/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $209/contract
Break Evens: 59.09/65.91
Theta: 1.19
Delta: -4.16
Notes: I would look to manage either of these at 50% max. I considered one additional setup: a Reverse Jade Lizard: June 16th 59/60/64, where the 59/60 is a short put vertical and the 64, a naked short call. This yields a setup with a 70% pop, a max profit of 1.14/contract, a break even at 65.14, and no downside risk (since the credit received for the short call is > the max loss of the short put vert).
THE WEEK AHEAD: EWY, FEZ, FXE, AND OIH/XOP/XLEWith VIX in another ebb and a paucity of high quality premium selling earnings plays in the making for next week with both high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility, I'm looking at exchange traded funds instead for potential plays.
For instance, EWY, the South Korea exchange traded fund, makes sense in the current geopolitical environment, and its implied volatility rank and implied volatility reflect this, coming in at 55/22. It doesn't meet my usually standards of >70 and >35, but sometimes the market doesn't allow you to be picky. The June 16th 56/59/65/68 iron condor brings in .81 at the mid (not quite up to my usual 1/3rd the width of the wings snuff); alternatively, the June 16th 57/62/62/67 iron fly brings in 2.76. A drawback is that this instrument only has monthlies, a situation I'm not fond of ... .
With French election finals on the horizon on May 7th, another play that makes sense against the backdrop of "news," is FEZ (Euro Stoxx 50) (49/21). However, I previously attempted to get a fill of an iron fly before the primaries, and it was quite pesky, particularly on the call side. Currently, I'm unable to get a mid price quote for the June 9th 34.5/37.5/37.5/40.5 iron fly or a similar setup in the June 16th expiry due to the fact that the long calls where I want to set up are no bid.
With FXE (the Euro proxy), which I tend to play as I would play EURUSD, I would go directionally short. The background implied volatility is so low that it just doesn't make sense as a straightforward premium selling play since the contraction that's usually a feature of these plays is likely to be minor; moreover, I have a directional assumption in a tightening Fed environment versus a loose to easing ECB environment (bearish).
There are a couple of ways to play it: (a) ATM short call verts where the break even is around 106 (e.g., the June 16th 105/108 short call vert; 1.20 cr; BPE 1.80; BE at 106.20), legging in small in the event it rips higher on a Macron win (currently, the likely outcome); (b) a call diagonal that gives you some flexibility on the short call side of things (e.g., a June 16th 107 short call; Sept 15th 110 long call; .07 cr; 2.93 BPE) without exposing you to downside risk in the event that the Euro caves in at some point on dollar strength or Euro weakness.
Lastly, I've got eyeballs on oil. It's dipped somewhat dramatically off highs, so I'm looking at various bullish plays in OIH, XOP, and/or XLE, all of which track oil prices somewhat religiously. Currently, I'm still working an XOP put diagonal, but am amenable to getting into another XOP play. (Put diagonal: XOP June 16th 33 short put; Dec 15th 27 long put; .10 credit at the mid; 5.90/contract BPE; PMCC: XOP June 16th 37 short call/Dec 15th 24 long call; 10.82 db).
Korean Market Pull BackEWY has gone on a huge run but pulled back lately due to concerns regarding the Syria missile strikes. It has lost about 5.5% from the highs but we are starting to see volume coming in here.
The combination of a geopolitical event that is indirectly related and volume increase makes me a buyer at these levels.